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Late on Friday, the New York Mets signed former New York Yankees closer Clay Holmes to a three-year, $38 million contract. Although Holmes's move from the Bronx to Flushing will be the headline, a more captivating and consequential change of location is hidden under the surface: The former All-Star closer will convert into a starter. Holmes converting into a starter (which he also was in the Pittsburgh Pirates' farm system) is a surprise, considering he is 31 years old and has found significant success as a reliever. However, his decision to return to the rotation is part of a broader trend proliferating in MLB.
In the past handful of seasons, the following erstwhile high-leverage relievers successfully converted into starting pitchers:
- Zack Littell, Tampa Bay Rays
- Michael King, New York Yankees
- Seth Lugo, San Diego Padres
- Jordan Hicks, San Francisco Giants
- Reynaldo López, Atlanta Braves
- Garrett Crochet, White Sox
Crochet, Littell and King transitioned from reliever to starter with the teams where they were already established high-leverage relievers. On the other hand, Lugo, Hicks, and López didn't convert into starters until signing higher annual average value (AAV) contracts with new organizations in the offseason. Holmes joins the latter trio, and while this transition is much easier for pitchers to make with new organizations, the Twins find themselves in a unique spot and could follow the Rays', Yankees' and (yes) White Sox's footsteps.
In the past, many who follow the Twins have speculated (and even written) that the team should consider converting star closer Jhoan Durán into a starting pitcher, which he was in the Arizona Diamondbacks and Twins minor-league systems. After enduring a disappointing 2024 campaign, the buzz surrounding Durán's potential conversion has mostly dimmed. That said, speculation has arisen with a different Twins reliever.
In an interview with MLB Network Radio's Mike Ferrin earlier this offseason, Twins bench coach Jayce Tingler noted that the team is "leaving open the possibility" that Griffin Jax could move into the starting rotation. At an initial glance, this idea comes off as ludicrous. Jax has been one of the best relievers in baseball over the past three seasons, posting a 145 ERA+ over 208 2/3 innings pitched. He has also been a cog in the team's shaky bullpen structure, operating a steady force who could be entrusted when other late-inning arms like Durán, Jorge Alcalá, Caleb Thielbar, and Brock Stewart struggled or missed time due to injury.
The obvious concern is that Jax rejoining the rotation could backfire, leading to a downward spiral that could negatively impact the team in various fashions. He could again struggle as a starting pitcher, as he did when he first came up, leaving a hole in the rotation and bullpen that wouldn't arise if Jax stayed a reliever. If he proved similarly ineffective, the organization would be forced to convert him back into a reliever midseason, increasing the threat of injury and newfound ineffectiveness in a role he has dominated for the better part of three seasons. To worry about such an outcome is reasonable, especially considering the 30-year-old's struggles as a starter in the past.
That said, team decision-makers are operating under unique circumstances and could deem a mid-career shift for Jax worthwhile for the following reasons:
Jax is a significantly better pitcher than he was in 2021
Teams with postseason aspirations need reliable, above-average relief arms like Jax to survive strenuous 162-game seasons. That said, teams with postseason aspirations also need starting pitchers who can be trusted to start playoff games, and Jax has the potential to become just that. In his sole season as a starter with the dreadful 2021 Twins, Jax generated a 6.37 ERA, 6.47 FIP, and 67 ERA+ over 14 starts and 82 innings pitched. Jax was ineffective as a starter, leading to the organization quickly turning him into a reliever in 2022. The United States Air Force Academy product held a multi-inning stretch reliever role with the team before blossoming into the elite late-inning stud we recognize today in June of that season.
Since his last start in 2021, though, Jax has drastically improved his four-pitch mix, illustrated by a substantial velocity increase in his sweeper (5.5 MPH increase since 2021) and four-seam fastball (4.5 MPH increase since 2021). Jax's sweeper and fastball are elite and should serve as an effective one-two punch as a starter, even though a moderate velocity decrease should be expected as he will be required to pace himself through more innings pitched. His secondary pitches (changeup, sinker, and curve) have also blossomed into effective change-of-pace options, proving that he possesses the auxiliary pitches necessary to permit the pitch sequencing flexibility necessary as he faces lineups two or three times. With the help of Driveline and the Twins' pitching development staff, Jax has become an elite, rubber-armed hurler whose pitch mix is one of baseball's best and most eclectic. Given the state of the franchise, a move to the rotation could benefit both parties.
Ownership-induced salary restrictions increase the likelihood of Jax converting back into a starter.
At first glance, the Twins rotation has three starting pitchers one would feel comfortable entering a 162-game season with: Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober. These three above-average arms are rightfully inscribed in the team's five-pitcher mix to begin the 2025 season. That said, confidence quickly begins to waver at the bottom of the rotation depth chart. Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews showcased the skills necessary to become long-term rotation pieces. Still, with concerns over the efficacy of their primary and secondary pitches and how they could sustain themselves over an entire season, there is merit for skepticism surrounding whether they should be a part of the rotation out of spring training.
The key thing is this: Rather than trying to find value by signing cheap, deeply flawed pitchers to support the back end of the rotation, a team in this position would do better to create value, which is effectively what this kind of transition does. Turning Jax from a dominant pitcher available for just 70 innings to one who might still flummox hitters if asked to throw 140 or 150 frames creates value, for free. It comes with risk, but so does spending on or trading for pitchers from outside the organization.
If Jax were to join the rotation, the club would need to find an adequate replacement in the bullpen. As things stand, the relief corps will be constructed with the following eight arms:
- Jhoan Durán, RHP
- Griffin Jax, RHP
- Brock Stewart, RHP
- Jorge Alcalá, RHP
- Cole Sands, RHP
- Ronny Henriquez, RHP
- Michael Tonkin, RHP
- Kody Funderburk, LHP
Louie Varland is on the outside looking in, and is presently on track to begin the season at Triple-A. Yet, if Jax were to join the rotation, Varland could take his bullpen spot. Justin Topa (who still has a minor-league option) could also function as a partial Jax replacement. Nevertheless, Minnesota would need to replace Jax in the aggregate to begin the season. The organization has viable depth, making that a plausible contingency plan. If the Twins were to do this, the hope would be a high-potential right-handed reliever like Stewart, Alcalá, Sands, Varland, or Topa could produce at a Jax-like rate, making his promotion more palatable.
Given ownership-induced salary restrictions, the Twins don't have a viable path to acquiring a frontline starting pitcher this offseason. Even though he struggled as a starting pitcher three seasons ago, Jax has demonstrated significant growth, illustrating that he could blossom into a Ryan- or Ober-caliber starting pitcher. Through possessing adequate right-handed bullpen depth, the organization is well-equipped to take on his departure from the bullpen. Twins Territory needs a fresh start, and Jax could be the fresh starter to spark it.
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