Tigers 10, Twins 5: Tigers Get Homer-Happy Against Ober and the Twins

[Steven Trefz]

Image courtesy of © Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

Box Score
SP: Bailey Ober 5.2 IP, 11 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 5 K (96 pitches, 69 strikes (72%))
Home Runs: Byron Buxton (19)
Bottom 3 WPA: Ober (-.432), Willi Castro (-.074), Carlos Correa (-.064)

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) 
 

Bailey Ober 's June has been one of the worst months of his career. Ober (4-5, 4.84 ERA) came into Saturday's matchup with the division-leading Tigers having given up 23 runs in 23.1 innings across his four June 2025 starts. Add in death threats to his family, and public and private concern around his decreased velocity, and Ober and the Twins both needed something hopeful to come out of his last June start.

Opposing Ober today was Tigers righty and all-star candidate Casey Mize (7-2, 2.82 ERA) who had yet to lose at home in 2025, and a host of Detroit offensive weapons looking to enact some revenge from Friday night's loss. Would the Twins be able to steal another game in the Tigers' home lair? Or would Detroit continue their dominance at the top of the AL Central?

Early Robberies - Advantage Detroit
Byron Buxton stayed red hot, taking the first pitch he saw to left field for a lead-off single. Buxton attempted to steal during Trevor Larnach's at-bat, but ultimately stayed put until he tried three more times in Willi Castro's lengthy 10-pitch at-bat. With Buxton successfully swiping his 15th base of the season, the Twins had two chances to deliver the game's first run in support of Ober. Castro and Carlos Correa both went down swinging, and the robbery failed to pay off.

After Ober took care of the Tigers in the bottom of the first, the Twins once again thought they had cracked the scoreboard safe when Ryan Jeffers launched a deep drive to left field. Kerry Carpenter timed his leap perfectly, however, and robbed yet another Twins run from going up on the board.

Detroit Cashes In Early, but Buck Breaks the Bank
Spencer Torkelson crushed an Ober 90.9 mph fastball off the base of the wall in left for a lead-off double in the bottom of the second. Wenceel Perez delivered a swinging bunt to advance Torkelson, and Twins-killer Matt Vierling took Ober deep enough for a sacrifice fly to deposit the first run of the game. In the top of the third, the Twins immediately responded. Harrison Bader blooped a single to start the action with one out, and then Buxton took a Mize splitter 109.6 mph to the left field bleachers where even Carpenter couldn't steal it back. 2-1 Twins!

 

Can Bailey and the Twins Avoid Another Third Inning Collapse?
Yes...and no. The third inning has been especially troublesome for the Twins and Ober this season. The Twins have been outscored by 28 runs in the third inning this season, and Ober and Twins fans recall his recent issues in the same frame. After retiring the first two Tigers easily, Ober continued to show an increase in velocity in both his fastball and slider across the frame.

Unfortunately, his slider location on a full count pitch to Carpenter left something to be desired, and Carpenter delivered a game-tying blast to deep right field to make it 2-2. Ober flirted with collapse, surrendering singles to Riley Greene and Torkelson to put runners at the corners with two out, but Bailey was able to strike out Perez on three pitches to stop the bleeding.

The bottom of the fourth inning began with a Vierling walk and a bloop single to Zach McKinstry to immediately put the pressure back on Ober. A sacrifice bunt moved the runners into scoring position, and Colt Keith immediately delivered a sacrifice fly to score Vierling to reestablish a Tigers advantage at 3-2. With two outs, Ober's fastball velocity dropped back down to 90 mph, and Gleybar Torres found a left-center jet stream and just like that, it was 5-2 Tigers.

While Mize continued to handle the Twins offense with ease, Ober and his 75 pitches came back out to face the Tigers in the sixth. Four pitches later Greene golfed the third two-strike homer of the game off of Ober to make it 6-2 Detroit. Ober came back out for the sixth inning, and immediately teed up another gopher ball to McKinstry to continue on his 9.00+ ERA pace in June. Bailey was unable to complete six innings, and the disappointment for him and for Twins Territory was palpable in a game that threw the series momentum back into the Tigers' paws.

Could the Twins Steal the Game and Momentum Back?
Not really. Joey Wentz only allowed one run in the fifth through seventh innings, but the six-run deficit left no real chance for a comeback. However, Correa did continue to build some personal momentum as he took Tommy Kahnle deep for a two-run shot in the top of the eighth to tighten the margin to 8-4.

That would be as close as the Twins could get to the division leaders in this battle. Walks continued to plague Wentz, and he couldn't finish the eighth inning, leaving the bases loaded with only one out for Cole Sands. Perez almost went grand salami, but settled for a two-run double off the base of the right field wall to extend their lead back to six yet again at 10-4. Brooks Lee kept his most recent hitting streak alive with a mop-up time double in the ninth, eventually scoring on a Matt Wallner sac fly for a 10-5 final score. The Tigers had lost their last eight Saturday games in a row, but they sent the Comerica Park fans home happy today with their MLB-leading 52nd victory of the season.

What’s Next?
The Twins look to take the series on Sunday evening in an ESPN game of the week. Twins righty Chris Paddack (3-6, 4.64 ERA) will take the hill in hopes of avenging his no-decision against Seattle on Tuesday and lowering his 6.11 ERA in June. Detroit sends guaranteed All-Star lefty Tarik Skubal (9-2, 2.29 ERA) in hopes of claiming the series for the Tigers. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm CDT.

Postgame Interviews
Coming Soon

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

	TUE	WED	THU	FRI	SAT	TOT
Wentz	0	0	0	0	48	48
Jax	13	9	0	23	0	45
Varland	11	17	0	15	0	43
Sands	0	0	31	0	12	43
Durán	17	9	0	9	0	35
Stewart	11	0	13	0	0	24
Coulombe	0	0	16	6	0	22
Topa	0	0	8	0	0	8

View full article

[mikelink45]

Wentz is gone - we seem to always push the pitches on players just before we release them.  Why did we let Bailey go further than we did Festa?  I am really sorry because Ober has been such a good story.  Give him an IL to heal, relax and return 

[BH67]

It's a befitting score in a game where the Twins were nickel-and-dimed to defeat -- albeit with a few long balls.

[thelanges5]

Ober needs a reset but who do we have to call up? Jose Urena isn’t that good but is probably better than present day Ober. 

[Blyleven2011]

I didn't get a chance to watch but caught just a bit here and there on the radio  ...

When the twins lose they lose big , can't wait for the calendar to turn to July and we have a more prosperous July  ...

It's just about the end of June and I stated at the beginning of June  that we would have an identity by the end of the month of June  , just no way the twins back into a wild-card slot , nor would I want them to just to be embarrassed  ...

It's win the division or go home , just like in the olden days ...

[1985Fan]

I wonder how many more starts they’re going to give Ober before they make a change. He’s been consistently terrible for a month now, so it should be clear he needs the IL or rest or AAA. Festa gives up two hits, zero runs, and isn’t allowed to finish the 6th. Ober looks like he’s throwing BP, gives up 7 runs, 11 hits, 4 HR’s and Rocco tries to force him through the 6th. If Rocco was trying to save the BP today, then leave Ober out there to eat another inning or two when the game is out of hand. 

I don’t think there is much hope for Ober. He has to rely on pinpoint control of his breaking pitches and changeup to be effective. With his FB velocity down, his other stuff is even less effective. Looks like the league has caught up to him. 

[tony&rodney]

Baseball is hard. The winning teams make the plays. The losing teams do not. Whether it is routine, running, or leaping in combination with good jumps - stuff happens. Last night Brooks Lee made a great play to get out #1 in an inning. Huge. 

There is another game tomorrow. We get Skubal on national television. 

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, 1985Fan said:

I wonder how many more starts they’re going to give Ober before they make a change. He’s been consistently terrible for a month now, so it should be clear he needs the IL or rest or AAA. Festa gives up two hits, zero runs, and isn’t allowed to finish the 6th. Ober looks like he’s throwing BP, gives up 7 runs, 11 hits, 4 HR’s and Rocco tries to force him through the 6th. If Rocco was trying to save the BP today, then leave Ober out there to eat another inning or two when the game is out of hand. 

I don’t think there is much hope for Ober. He has to rely on pinpoint control of his breaking pitches and changeup to be effective. With his FB velocity down, his other stuff is even less effective. Looks like the league has caught up to him. 

The League lapped Ober in June

[cheeseheadgophfan]

You gotta believe there's some kind of arm issue with Bailey.  He can hit 92-93 on occasion, but has no ability to maintain the velocity.......

[Vanimal46]

There has to be a player in St Paul today who can perform better than Wentz. I know a mop up guy is low on the totem pole but we are wasting time with him. 

[D.C Twins]

Echo the IL for Ober.... something is not right (hip mentioned previously)....

He is not benefiting himself or the team pushing through whatever is ailing him 

[Blyleven2011]

9 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

There has to be a player in St Paul today who can perform better than Wentz. I know a mop up guy is low on the totem pole but we are wasting time with him. 

Every outing he's allowed runs , mop up guys shouldn't give up as many runs as he has ...

Would you like acala back  , he's been clean so far with Boston  🤣

[Western SD Fan]

I believe the Twins are just stuck with Ober for the foreseeable future unless the training or medical staff finally stop him.  My guess is that once Ober goes on the IL, the extent of his injuries will take him out for the remainder of the season as whatever they are giving him now isn't going to go away with extended rest and he'll likely need some kind of season-ending surgery.

What are our options in St. Paul if Ober does go down?  Newly acquired Gillespie?  I see Gillespie as more of a back-end rotation guy that we use once we trade Paddack at the deadline to finish out the season and see what he has.  Adams is intriguing and I would even be so bold as to suggest using the dreaded opener with Adams.  My reasoning is that Adams is more used to warming up in the bullpen and coming in the middle of a game than Festa or SWR, who are more used to starting the game.  Adams is currently stretched out for only 4 innings as he is being piggybacked with Raya in his last couple of appearances.  You have an opener that can go 1-2 innings and pair with Adams to go 3-4, that still gets you at best through the 6th inning and then you can run your bullpen like normal.  This may be a crazy idea, but sometimes you need to think of crazy ideas to try to get through the season.  The final idea is even crazier and that is for the FO to trade for a pitcher.  I don't see the FO itching at adding unless the Twins go on another magical 13-game winning streak in July.

[Blyleven2011]

5 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Wentz is gone - we seem to always push the pitches on players just before we release them.  Why did we let Bailey go further than we did Festa?  I am really sorry because Ober has been such a good story.  Give him an IL to heal, relax and return 

I agree Wentz should be gone , every outing he has given up runs , today he pitched 1 2/3rd innings walked 4 , hits 3  , runs 3  ...

4 outings for the twins and none of them have proven he can mop up the starters mess but has added to it ...

Another in a long list of players the FO hopes can be a diamond in the ruff ...

And as for Ober  , if he is pitching with a lower injury that's not good on the arm as he might over compensate for the lower injury only to suffer a arm injury ...

[Linehan]

1 hour ago, Western SD Fan said:

I believe the Twins are just stuck with Ober for the foreseeable future unless the training or medical staff finally stop him.  My guess is that once Ober goes on the IL, the extent of his injuries will take him out for the remainder of the season as whatever they are giving him now isn't going to go away with extended rest and he'll likely need some kind of season-ending surgery.

What are our options in St. Paul if Ober does go down?  Newly acquired Gillespie?  I see Gillespie as more of a back-end rotation guy that we use once we trade Paddack at the deadline to finish out the season and see what he has.  Adams is intriguing and I would even be so bold as to suggest using the dreaded opener with Adams.  My reasoning is that Adams is more used to warming up in the bullpen and coming in the middle of a game than Festa or SWR, who are more used to starting the game.  Adams is currently stretched out for only 4 innings as he is being piggybacked with Raya in his last couple of appearances.  You have an opener that can go 1-2 innings and pair with Adams to go 3-4, that still gets you at best through the 6th inning and then you can run your bullpen like normal.  This may be a crazy idea, but sometimes you need to think of crazy ideas to try to get through the season.  The final idea is even crazier and that is for the FO to trade for a pitcher.  I don't see the FO itching at adding unless the Twins go on another magical 13-game winning streak in July.

The prairie must be getting to you

[Sjoski]

2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

There has to be a player in St Paul today who can perform better than Wentz. I know a mop up guy is low on the totem pole but we are wasting time with him. 

Maybe the Twins can run a Help Wanted Ad?

 

 

[knothole61]

Bring up the Uber for Ober.

Look, I can't imagine that Dobnak could be any worse than the current version of Ober--likely somewhat better. I might even be able to ignore his flamboyant presentation at this point.

The Twins scored 5 today and it wouldn't have taken more than an average pitching performance to have given them a fair chance to win. I like the Ober story too, but he is toast at 90 mph and we can't afford to give him any more starts right now.  Bring up, Dobnak, Adams, somebody, anybody else!

Oh...Wentz is really, really bad.   

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

There has to be a player in St Paul today who can perform better than Wentz. I know a mop up guy is low on the totem pole but we are wasting time with him. 

There are a couple guys on waivers who have been better than Wentz.

[Vanimal46]

29 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

There are a couple guys on waivers who have been better than Wentz.

5 out of 6 outings giving up multiple runs. I’ve unfortunately seen 3 of his outings and there’s nothing intriguing about him beyond left handed and breathing. 

[BrokenCompass]

When a pitcher performs poorly, why does everyone jump in and say "he should be on the IL"? Why not take the Occam's Razor approach and simply conclude that he's not very good? Pablo Lopez needs to be on the IL. He had an injury. "Injured List". 

Ober just needs to pitch better and make adjustments, or else start looking at condos in Pittsburgh or Colorado where he'll be pitching for the final two years of his career. 

Tigers can for all intents and purposes bury the Twins tonight. Most say the season's already over, but I'm an optimist. I think the Twins can keep a dim hope alive by winning tonight on national TV. 

[Doctor Gast]

15 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Every outing he's allowed runs , mop up guys shouldn't give up as many runs as he has ...

Would you like acala back  , he's been clean so far with Boston  🤣

I was totally against trading Alcala & the way they managed him since he came off the IL. He has pitched 4 scoreless innings for BOS. Good for him, bad for the Twins.

[jmlease1]

16 hours ago, 1985Fan said:

 I don’t think there is much hope for Ober. He has to rely on pinpoint control of his breaking pitches and changeup to be effective. With his FB velocity down, his other stuff is even less effective. Looks like the league has caught up to him. 

He's been awful in June for sure, but has been a quality pitcher the previous 2 seasons and has been good in MLB basically every season except for this one. He's had good outings this season as well. He was quite good in April and had an inconsistent but decent May. Which is more likely: Bailey Ober is cooked after having a terrible month and will never be good again, or that his mechanics and health aren't where they need to be for him to be effective?

He needs to go to IL for a couple of weeks and get right. They're doing him no favors by continuing to let him gut through the hip issue and try to battle through the mechanical adjustments. Yes, the starting pitching depth is depleted, but right now, you really can't expect Ober to do anything other than eat innings...and they probably won't be good ones. I'd rather see Adams get a shot that continuing to punish Ober, who is clearly not right and unlikely to get there by continuing to start. Props to him for battling, but time to protect a player from himself.

Buxton continues to be awesome. He's worth the price of admission all by himself, I think. Love that guy.

 

[jmlease1]

4 hours ago, BrokenCompass said:

When a pitcher performs poorly, why does everyone jump in and say "he should be on the IL"? Why not take the Occam's Razor approach and simply conclude that he's not very good? Pablo Lopez needs to be on the IL. He had an injury. "Injured List". 

Ober just needs to pitch better and make adjustments, or else start looking at condos in Pittsburgh or Colorado where he'll be pitching for the final two years of his career. 

Tigers can for all intents and purposes bury the Twins tonight. Most say the season's already over, but I'm an optimist. I think the Twins can keep a dim hope alive by winning tonight on national TV. 

Because we know he's been fighting a problem with his hip this season. He's not fully healthy, and going to the IL might position him to get right as well as fix the mechanical issues that are plaguing him. Hopefully it gets his velocity back up if he can get some rest, therapy, and heal. This isn't hard. 

[USAFChief]

 Ober is injured?

The Twins treat their pitchers like fragile crystal. A tummy ache gets an IL stint. 

I have trouble believing this cautious-in-the-extreme team would let Ober pitch injured.

 

 

[LambchoP]

They need to do something with Ober. If not an IL stint then skip one or two of his starts. Problem is there are no real SP candidates that could replace him. In the pen it's obvious to anyone with a tv that Wentz has to go. I'd rather see Adams out there. He needs a shot and he can piggyback short starts and go multiple innings. Hopefully the Twins can get some you g starting pitching at the deadline because it's clear we don't have enough talent right now. Kyle Gibson is available for minimum salary. He can't be any worse than Ober lately.

[JD-TWINS]

18 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I didn't get a chance to watch but caught just a bit here and there on the radio  ...

When the twins lose they lose big , can't wait for the calendar to turn to July and we have a more prosperous July  ...

It's just about the end of June and I stated at the beginning of June  that we would have an identity by the end of the month of June  , just no way the twins back into a wild-card slot , nor would I want them to just to be embarrassed  ...

It's win the division or go home , just like in the olden days ...

The best record in baseball is ahead of them in the Division - Tigers. There are probably 4-5 Teams ahead of them for Wild Card but none more than 4 or 5 games. Not sure why winning the Division is their only path to the Playoffs, with any respectability?

IMO, if there’s embarrassment, it’s from not making the Playoffs at all.

[JD-TWINS]

I don’t buy the “Ober’s injured” narrative at this point. He may have a physical issue but that isn’t what makes a guy throw 4-5 unacceptable pitches in a 90 pitch outing. He gave up at least 3 hits on good pitches that hitters just got lucky on by getting the bat in the ball. So, fortune hasn’t been with him lately. Also, hitters are not missing his mistakes - at all. Yesterday, for the most part, his fastball and changeup-up looked to be working in concert. His slider was up and down and lack of command and lack of movement with that pitch was most of his problems. He hung a change for a homer. …….. I just don’t think an IL stint helps with command……particularly when the command issues are 6-10% of the pitches thrown. All pitchers miss spots repeatedly in outings, Ober just doesn’t have the stuff to miss by much and it’s eating him up right now. IL or skipped start prior to All-Star break makes sense for mental re-set if nothing else.

[Doctor Gast]

Twins have some players they protect & others they abuse. Ober was sicker than a dog but yet he pitched, his life has been threatened, & has had a sore hip since the beginning of the season yet he's still pitching. How can he pitch under these condition?

[Blyleven2011]

18 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

The best record in baseball is ahead of them in the Division - Tigers. There are probably 4-5 Teams ahead of them for Wild Card but none more than 4 or 5 games. Not sure why winning the Division is their only path to the Playoffs, with any respectability?

IMO, if there’s embarrassment, it’s from not making the Playoffs at all.

What about the 18 game losing streak in the playoffs , I'm sorry butcl it can't get anymore embarrassing than that ...

We did manage a divisional win in  2023 and a playoff run that us fans were in jubilation in winning 1 series with Toronto and even getting to play astros , but the team has gone backwards except for the pitching ever since ...

Winning the division isn't the only path to the playoffs but it's what i gauge a contending team to be , wild cards are just that , you get lucky on pretending  ...

I play to win , This team has no business being in the playoffs this year ...

Thanks for your thoughts ...