The Minnesota Twins Pitching Staff Is a Buzzsaw

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

It's safe to say the Twins have a formula. They've ridden it to a 17-5 record in their last 22 games, and we saw it successfully deployed again in Tampa on Tuesday night. Minnesota's pitching staff is so good, so consistent, that all the Twins offense needs to do is show up and the game is basically won. 

Joe Ryan, who didn't even look to be at his best in the sweltering Florida heat, casually rattled off six innings of one-run ball, navigating out of trouble on multiple occasions and keeping the ball in the yard. Ryan struck out five and improved to 5-2 with a 2.57 ERA on the season.

 

Louis Varland came in to handle the seventh, giving up a run that he could afford to with a 3-1 lead. He got the job done, hammering the zone with nine strikes on 11 pitches. Everyday Louie is thriving in a relief role, and his durability has been nothing short of astounding – this was his MLB-leading 27th appearance, putting him on pace for the second-most in franchise history.

The eighth inning belonged to Griffin Jax, who struck out the side on 14 pitches while inducing five whiffs. Jax has put his slow start firmly in the rear-view mirror; over the past month he's been the best reliever in baseball. Right now he's at the height of his powers and that's an advantage almost no other team in baseball can match.

 

Completing the game was Jhoan Durán, who converted his ninth save in 10 tries while lowering his ERA to 1.07. Ho-hum. He's pitching as well as he has at any point in his career, riding a reconfigured pitch mix to All-Star type results. 

The offense was unspectacular on Tuesday night, but was were able to scratch across four runs and that's been the magic ticket: when scoring four-plus, the Twins are now 26-3 this season. Their pitching staff has been so good that Minnesota basically can't lose when scoring at least an average number of runs. The Rays never stood a chance in a game where they had to scratch and claw to get two men across the plate.

The Twins pitching staff is relentless. Tampa Bay won't get much of a respite in the series finale when they line up against Pablo López and his 2.31 ERA. Rocco Baldelli might have used three of his very best bullpen arms in Tuesday's win, but he can still call upon a fresh Cole Sands or Brock Stewart, and Danny Coulombe will hopefully be back soon with his pristine 0.00 ERA. 

Minnesota pitchers lead the American League in fWAR and nobody else is close; entering play on Tuesday, the Twins were at 9.3 – just slightly behind the Phillies (9.4) for the major-league lead. The Astros and Royals were tied for second in the AL at 7.7 apiece. This prestigious ranking is reflective of a group that boasts frontline prowess and impressive depth. Letting Jorge Alcalá work through it in a low-leverage bullpen is a luxury. Many contenders would kill to have a guy like Simeon Woods Richardson – currently standing by at Triple-A – in their big-league rotation. Or a David Festa. Or a Zebby Matthews blocking them both (for the moment).

Of course, we all know nothing in baseball is ever guaranteed — injuries are inevitably part of the grind, and fortunes can flip quickly. But at this moment, the Twins are making an emphatic case as the best pitching team in the American League. From the top of the rotation to the back end of the bullpen, they’re carving through opponents with ruthless efficiency. When the bats contribute even modestly, this team is nearly impossible to beat.

Speaking of which, Matt Wallner and Byron Buxton are both in line to return to the lineup any day now.

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[Patzky]

"""DO NOT TEMPT THE BASE BALL FATES"".

[D.C Twins]

Best news is Ryan, Lopez, and Ober are good enough to win playoff games if we can make it! 

Line up still worries me over the long haul this season.... 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Agree 100%.  However, I've been a baseball fan, and a Twins fan, long enough to know that fortunes can change quickly.  Let's enjoy this run as long as we can and see if the pitchers can keep it going for a while!  I'm not sure that the Twins have ever had both a rotation and bullpen this good at the same time.  Rotation alone maybe never, but when combined with this bullpen (and they have had some really good ones in the past), we are witnessing something pretty historic for this team. 

[Jocko87]

So many folks twisting themselves into pretzels to be typical Minnesota negative nellies this off season completely ignoring the reality that not a lot of moves actually needed to be made. 

Me, Fangraphs and maybe one other person have been on this square all year.

It's a good thing the Twins don't read this board or listen to Gleeman.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

70-38

That is what this team would need to do the rest of the way to win 100 games. Be optimistic for their current play, but be realistic when making throwaway comments.

A lineup that regularly throws out 3-4 AAAA players will not continue to produce throughout the season. 

[Sjoski]

8 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

A lineup that regularly throws out 3-4 AAAA players

Last night featured Bride and Keirsey Jr....with both Buxton and Wallner coming back. It will be interesting to see who goes back to AAA with McCusker.  Certainly not Clemens. I am going with Bride. 

[GNess]

Positive take for sure, but here are some potential Twins issues to keep an eye on::

- Will Paddack continue to pitch well?

- Will Buxton and Wallner return healthy and pick up where they left off?

- Will Lewis rediscover his bat?

 

 

[hitterscount]

46 minutes ago, D.C Twins said:

Best news is Ryan, Lopez, and Ober are good enough to win playoff games if we can make it! 

Line up still worries me over the long haul this season.... 

Been saying this all season. Now they are back at .500, actually comfortably over, and in the playoff hunt… trading Festa or Matthews and another prospect for a proven bat would make a huge difference in the offense. This pitching staff is for real, need to go for it while they are still together and affordable.

[mickster]

41 minutes ago, Sjoski said:

Last night featured Bride and Keirsey Jr....with both Buxton and Wallner coming back. It will be interesting to see who goes back to AAA with McCusker.  Certainly not Clemens. I am going with Bride. 

Kiersey

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

Not surprisingly, the keys are the health of the pitching staff and a return to or continuation of form for Correa, Buxton, Wallner, and Lewis. The Bullpen has been great but I worry about depth when (not if) Stewart and Alcala need IL time. If Funderburk is the best we have backing up the current group we could have a real problem if 2 BP guys go down at the same time. Also, an injury to Lopez or Ryan would really hurt the starting staff. We have depth but no one to replace either of those guys. 

The lineup has been pretty bad but if Buxton and Wallner continue to hit when they come back and Lewis rediscovers his stroke, we would have a top half lineup that could be even better. Think about a lineup against RH starters of - Larnach, Buxton, Correa, Wallner (breaking up the LHs), Jeffers, Lewis, Clemens, France, Lee/Bader, with Lee/Bader, Castro, Vasquez, and Bride on the bench. Then add in Keaschall in the 1 or 2 hole and shift everyone back one and that lineup could score some runs. Against a LH starter drop Larnach for Bader and Clemens for Lee and its still pretty strong.  Look, there will always be one or more guys out but now there's some MLB level depth since depth guys like Castro, Bader, Clemens, and Lee don't have to play every day. 

I'm cautiously optimistic. This team could win 95 games. It's going to take at least that to beat Detroit but both the division and a wild card are within realistic reach.   

[DJL44]

11 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Think about a lineup against RH starters of - Larnach, Buxton, Correa, Wallner (breaking up the LHs), Jeffers, Lewis, Clemens, France, Lee/Bader, with Lee/Bader, Castro, Vasquez, and Bride on the bench.

I don't know why anyone would prefer Larnach over Wallner as the leadoff hitter. Wallner gets on base. Royce Lewis should be batting 9th right now.

Wallner, Correa, Buxton, Larnach, Bader, Clemens, Jeffers, France, Castro/Lee/Lewis/Bride

I think about flip-flopping Correa and Bader but I'd trust their career numbers.

[IndianaTwin]

Hey, if calling it a "formula" means that we don't have to put up with all the "Rocco only manages his pitching by spreadsheet" comments, I'm cool with that. 

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

A lineup that regularly throws out 3-4 AAAA players will not continue to produce throughout the season. 

In a season that has, knock on wood, been pretty healthy thus far. I think the concerns about the roster are completely valid. But the praise of the pitching is warranted and does not seem like a fluke at all. 

[jmlease1]

The pitching staff has been great. Especially during the big win streak, they've been what we thought/hoped they could be. 

Do I still have some concerns? Sure. Paddack may be a little more smoke & mirrors than his results have shown, and SWR had to be sent down. Fortunately we have depth behind them in Matthews (who has an ugly ERA, but the peripherals suggest he's been a bit unlucky) and Festa (who looked plenty ready in his turn). And Ryan, Lopez, and Ober have been excellent.

The bullpen has been excellent as well; Jax seems back on track from his early "struggles", Duran is handling his lower velocity just fine, Varland has quickly proven to be capable of higher leverage situations, and Sands hasn't missed a beat either. Stewart is health and back at it, Topa is healthy and back at it...the weakest link is Alcala (who still throws upper 90's) and Funderburk (who simply isn't as good as Coulombe). That's pretty dang good. I'm a little concerned about overwork, but some of that is simply a result of being in so many games. If the offense cranks up a bit, the starters will probably start going a bit longer.

It's nice to have this kind of pitching, and this kind of pitching depth. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

This is why,  even why when they were performing poorly I had high expectations.  This is a quality pitching staff,  that has the depth - going 8 deep that can allow the starting pitching staff to stay fresh throughout the year.  We don't need them to continue to pitch when dealing with a dead arm.  Take some time off and let Woods-Richardson, Festa or Matthews.  

The real advantage is the depth of the relievers on the staff.  You have a number of solid relievers with Duran leading the charge again this year.  We can still have a bad outing like Sunday against the Royals,  but day in and day out they do their job.  

I still anticipate the hitting to get much better once Wallner, Buxton, and Keaschall getting healthy.  Clemens has also been a find.  This is a team that can compete in October.  

[Fire Dan Gladden]

38 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

In a season that has, knock on wood, been pretty healthy thus far. I think the concerns about the roster are completely valid. But the praise of the pitching is warranted and does not seem like a fluke at all. 

100% agree on the pitching. It is fun to know that when any of the big 3 pitch, you almost expect the Twins to win. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 hour ago, hitterscount said:

Been saying this all season. Now they are back at .500, actually comfortably over, and in the playoff hunt… trading Festa or Matthews and another prospect for a proven bat would make a huge difference in the offense. This pitching staff is for real, need to go for it while they are still together and affordable.

Sorry, but no. In this day and age, you do not trade quality, inexpensive SP for just about anything. Two of the SWR, Matthews, Festa trio will be in the rotation next year, with the other as insurance.

[Steve Lein]

The lineup is still not hitting well-enough to win a playoff series. They're in the bottom third of MLB for OPS, and well-below the league average overall.

Pitching can get them there, and it's great to have what they do, but those teams will have good pitching, too. And probably better hitting. Buxton and Wallner will help, but I'm not convinced that will be quite enough yet.

[Nick Nelson]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

70-38

That is what this team would need to do the rest of the way to win 100 games. Be optimistic for their current play, but be realistic when making throwaway comments.

A lineup that regularly throws out 3-4 AAAA players will not continue to produce throughout the season. 

In 2006 the Twins went 71-37 in their last 108 games, and uhhhh that lineup had some weak spots. It's not like it's unprecedented. I don't see why that kind of record is out of the question if they continue to boast far-and-away the best pitching staff in the AL. 

Also I'm not sure what you mean by "continue to produce," they haven't really produced. And they're still 6 games over .500. Asking for above-average offensive production from this group is not such a stretch.

[NYCTK]

6 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

far-and-away the best pitching staff in the AL. 

They are leading the AL in FIP and therefore fWAR, but they're 4th in xFIP, 5th in WPA, T-2nd in ERA, T-4th in WHIP. 

I think you can make the argument they're the best, but it's a bit foolish to call them far-and-away the best. 

[hitterscount]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Sorry, but no. In this day and age, you do not trade quality, inexpensive SP for just about anything. Two of the SWR, Matthews, Festa trio will be in the rotation next year, with the other as insurance.

If you could get a Gunnar Henderson or that type of young player with some team control with one of those three,pitchers,  a top prospect and Lewis, do it. They have Ryan, Ober and Lopez coming back. This window of high quality pitching cannot last long with FA coming into play after next season. 

[bean5302]

The pitching staff has has basically been universally at their career bests when the lineup was a catastrophe. A bunch of career years lining up can happen (see 1987, 1991) over a full season, but I feel pretty confident the batters are going to need to figure it out and score more runs steadily for the Twins to make the playoffs, let alone win 100 games. I find the second option there to be pretty far-fetched right now.

[KirbyDome89]

4 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

So many folks twisting themselves into pretzels to be typical Minnesota negative nellies this off season completely ignoring the reality that not a lot of moves actually needed to be made. 

Me, Fangraphs and maybe one other person have been on this square all year.

It's a good thing the Twins don't read this board or listen to Gleeman.

Who was complaining about the starting pitching going into this season? I mean c'mon, the entire offseason was a Matthews/Festa hype train. The bullpen? Again, show me the posts en masse calling for change anywhere other than the fringes. 

The concern was a lineup that was injured and/or just plain bad. They added more vets hoping for a bounce back season (mixed results) rolled the dice on younger guys like Miranda and Julien sticking (poor results) and crossed their fingers on the health (mostly poor results) of expected major contributors. Have those concerns been quashed? Nope. 

If you're taking a victory lap at the very least don't fabricate the argument you're gloating over. 

[KirbyDome89]

2 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

In 2006 the Twins went 71-37 in their last 108 games, and uhhhh that lineup had some weak spots. It's not like it's unprecedented. I don't see why that kind of record is out of the question if they continue to boast far-and-away the best pitching staff in the AL. 

Also I'm not sure what you mean by "continue to produce," they haven't really produced. And they're still 6 games over .500. Asking for above-average offensive production from this group is not such a stretch.

If you're reaching back 2 decades to find an example are you not proving the rule? 

The stretch that has them sitting over .500 also included 12 games against the dregs of the AL where they went 11-1. Above average offense from this current lineup? Yeah I think that's a stretch. 

[D.C Twins]

4 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

In 2006 the Twins went 71-37 in their last 108 games, and uhhhh that lineup had some weak spots. It's not like it's unprecedented. I don't see why that kind of record is out of the question if they continue to boast far-and-away the best pitching staff in the AL. 

Also I'm not sure what you mean by "continue to produce," they haven't really produced. And they're still 6 games over .500. Asking for above-average offensive production from this group is not such a stretch.

Peak Santana and Liriano (and yes peak Liriano was actually better than peak Santana... but sadly it lasted less than a season)

[Fire Dan Gladden]

38 minutes ago, D.C Twins said:

Peak Santana and Liriano (and yes peak Liriano was actually better than peak Santana... but sadly it lasted less than a season)

 

5 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

In 2006 the Twins went 71-37 in their last 108 games, and uhhhh that lineup had some weak spots. It's not like it's unprecedented. I don't see why that kind of record is out of the question if they continue to boast far-and-away the best pitching staff in the AL. 

Also I'm not sure what you mean by "continue to produce," they haven't really produced. And they're still 6 games over .500. Asking for above-average offensive production from this group is not such a stretch.

Other than Santana and Liriano (who were basically automatic wins, SP3-5 were not good in 2006. The total SP WAR for the season for that group was 11th in MLB. The BP in 2006 was light years ahead of the rest of MLB, that is what kept them in things.

Their hitting was average, but they had the league MVP (Morneau), 6th in MVP voting (Mauer) and peak Cuddyer and Hunter. They were almost guaranteed to score runs through the heart of the order. The 2006 lineup was about 10 spots higher in MLBN runs scored than this team.

The last 25 or so games for this team have been buoyed by great pitching, but also Kody Clemens and his 1.137 OPS, Harrison Bader's 122 OPS+, a resurgent Jeffers, Buxton playing almost every day, and an effective Paddack. If you believe all of those things will continue (along with Wallner coming back hitting like pre-injury, and Lewis doing something) then sure, 71 wins is possible.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

4 hours ago, hitterscount said:

If you could get a Gunnar Henderson or that type of young player with some team control with one of those three,pitchers,  a top prospect and Lewis, do it. They have Ryan, Ober and Lopez coming back. This window of high quality pitching cannot last long with FA coming into play after next season. 

Gunnar Henderson is probably as untouchable as players get in today's game. What you are proposing would not get that deal done.

 

[tony&rodney]

My comments have extolled the excellence of the Twins pitching staff all season. They are really good. However, we don't need to get all giddy about best ever. The 1965-1969 Twins pitching was really good too. 

The wins may be tougher this year for a couple of reasons. It isn't negative to note the real lack of foot speed and defense on this squad and the offense struggles to score runs as well. With a philosophy that eschews advancing runners (partially due to lack of speed but mostly due to thought process) and relies on extra base hits from players who are largely singles hitters, there are going to be real challenges. A step forward from several players will be needed before this Twins team can take the next step. While I remain bullish on the Twins, it is still a positive statement to expect around 85 wins and a wild card slot.

[Doctor Wu]

19 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I have been following the Twins since their arrival from Washington.  I agree with you Nick that this is the best and most balanced pitching staff and depth that they have ever had.  They are a joy to watch.  I only hope that the lineup does not waste this good fortune by supporting the pitching staff with good run support for the rest of the season and into the playoffs.

I'm not so certain about the staff having a "buzzsaw" type of effectiveness, but you are right: this may be one of the most balanced (good word) and effective groups of pitchers that we have ever had. Maybe no Santana-type ace, but still a very good bunch. Knock on wood for continued good health and strikeouts.