How the Twins and the Orioles Can Match Up On a Joe Ryan Trade

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

He is a top 30 WAR pitcher this year.  He has been a top 30 pitcher through July of the last 2-3 years then has struggled due to injury or wearing out to ending the last couple season.  Effectively stating he is a top 30 pitcher is stating he is a low end #1 pitcher.  He looks like a low end #1 pitcher.  He has effectively been a solid #2 to high end #2 pitcher for the large portions of the last 2 1/2 years.  I am not sure where you are going with this.   

And Chris Bassitt was the top pitcher in all of MLB through the first two weeks this year....

Joe Ryan hasn't worn out. Scouting reports catch up to this adjustments and his luck runs out so he gets clobbered in the 2nd half. Hopefully, this year will be different for him as I like watching Twins players succeed, but unfortunately for you and Joe Ryan, there has been a second half to the season since MLB started, and cherry picking only the parts you like doesn't invalidate the fact Joe Ryan's very best season was 3.1 fWAR.

The average fWAR for even an All Star pitcher is 4.0. Cy Young candidates are generally around 6.0. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Top 30?? ROFL, this site...

You were quoting ERA as gospel last week. His 2.93 ERA is ranked 25th. WAR ranked 31, WHIP ranked 4th.

you should try watching baseball, it’s fun

[bean5302]

54 minutes ago, Danchat said:

...Given the past 8 years of pitcher development in this organization, the 6 years control of a pitching prospect isn't worth as much as it sounds like it is. They're unknowns who may or may not develop...

It's true, Falvey's failed to deliver almost any substantial value through drafting and developing over his tenure. Doesn't mean it's supposed to be that way. Teams who cannot continually develop players fail. The Twins are failing, but Joe Ryan or Bailey Ober cannot carry this team.

[bean5302]

Just now, Richie the Rally Goat said:

You were quoting ERA as gospel last week. His 2.93 ERA is ranked 25th. WAR ranked 31, WHIP ranked 4th.

you should try watching baseball, it’s fun

Again, Chris Bassitt, best pitcher in all of MLB.

Joe Ryan career. ERA = 3.84, FIP = 3.82, xFIP = 3.82.

You. Joe Ryan superstar!!!! 2.93 ERA! Just ignore his first 4 years. This time it's for real!

[shimrod]

6 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

It would send a negative message to the players, staff and the fans. It would say: "The current roster, which I, the Front Office, has put together, isn't good enough...sell."

To be fair, this is correct. 

[NYCTK]

11 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

You were quoting ERA as gospel last week. His 2.93 ERA is ranked 25th. WAR ranked 31, WHIP ranked 4th.

you should try watching baseball, it’s fun

Yeah, even if you want to claim he's more like 40th best SP, which I think bean could more agree to, calling him top 30 isn't the most unreasonable claim. Seems perfectly in bounds. 

It's not like anyone's claimed the Twins have 3 #1s. Or at least in this thread. Feel like I have read exactly that from big homers here before. 

Allow me to throw some support to the Top 30 claim. 

Projections for the Rest of Season by fWAR: 

zips: 20th

steamer: 17th

oopsy: 33rd

atc: 21st

Now, these projection systems largely look at the same data with a similar method so it's not surprising that he'd be looked at favorably in all of them. But I think calling him Top 30 is perfectly reasonable. 

 

[laloesch]

7 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

Bowden’s article was/is click bait. It’s his job to write articles that get people to read and comment. That being said most of the trades proposed involving large and small market teams tend to favor the larger market. I don’t like the idea of the Twins trading Ryan, Lopez, or Ober. If they did it would have to address a current need and make them better or neutral, not worse. 
 

Ride Paddack to the deadline and flip him for some prospect. Thats more realistic but not as flashy as dropping Joe Ryan into your article. 

I would flip Paddack and possibly SWR who is looking more and more like a long reliever vs. a starter.  Maybe even bundle them together to the Orioles and get something back.

[laloesch]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I think it's more likely SWR is dealt for a top prospect. He struggles the third time thru, but plenty of teams have a huge need for pitching and would like him. 

I'm hoping for a catcher or first baseman.

This.  Long term it's starting to look like that SWR is more of a reliver / long reliever than a starter.  If the Twins deal him now along with Paddack the return might be worth it.

[laloesch]

1 hour ago, Danchat said:

I'm not opposed to listening to offers on Ryan, but I'd have to be blown out of the water with the offer given his team control and current performance.

Ober makes more sense to move and should still command a fairly high price. If you can get a "top prospect" for SWR, I probably make that move.

Given the past 8 years of pitcher development in this organization, the 6 years control of a pitching prospect isn't worth as much as it sounds like it is. They're unknowns who may or may not develop, and Falvey has been keen to keep the rotation stacked with veteran arms over playing prospects (see Ober getting buried in the 2023 rotation at the start of the year, didn't move Paddack this year). IMO you have to assume the pipeline doesn't exist.

Not only that, Festa is still a bit of an unknown and he is kinda the agreed upon replacement (for the moment) when Paddack exits the organization either at the trade deadline or this coming offseason. 

From what we've seen of him (Festa) he does pretty good the first two times through opponent's batting orders only to encounter troubles the third time through, which is trouble for a starter long term.  SWR has likewise struggled this season in much the same way.    

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think you mis-filed this.  It belongs in “Just for Fun”. 
 

Seriously.  Just no.  It’s taken a long time to have a good rotation.  Trading a pitcher like Joe Ryan this far away from free agency would be premature to say the least, and these proposals don’t make me want to pick up the phone.  

[Sjoski]

Acquiring Ryan is the brightest highlight on Falveys resume.  Doubt he'll risk blowing it up by trading Ryan away.

Whatever happened to the 2nd guy we got in that deal? 

--- now you can sleep at night.

Drew Strotman was traded to the Twins with Joe Ryan in 2021 for Nelson Cruz. He struggled in Triple-A, was DFA’d in 2022, and bounced between the Rangers, Giants, and Astros systems. In 2025, he signed with the Mexican League’s Tecolotes. Still hasn’t made his MLB debut.

[Mike Sixel]

5 hours ago, jjswol said:

The Twins trading pitching for hitting is always a dumb idea. You can never have too much pitching. Hitting is always easier to find than pitching. Keep in mind that both pitching and hitting take time to develop.

And yet, they can't find hitting sufficient to win. What's your plan to fix that if you won't trade and they won't sign free agents to big deals? Just wait and see if anyone comes up next year? 

[LameColt]

I must be watching games without seeing. Elite! Near #1 ace! First, Twins enjoy the services of no elite pitcher. Second, of course this improbable transaction needs to satisfy both teams.

My observation is that Ryan starts like a house-a-fire, fastballs only. Works against some teams only. Velocity slowly decreases, walks and home runs often follow. He's a decent pitcher, only. And what happened to “trade at high value”? I believe him to be more a strength than liability, but starting in mid-July you will begin to see his pitching history repeat itself.

Even if I felt differently a fair trade for need(s) makes sense. And no, I do not feel similarly regarding Lopez and Ober. And flip Paddak indeed; they’ll be lining up for sure.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Again, Chris Bassitt, best pitcher in all of MLB.

Joe Ryan career. ERA = 3.84, FIP = 3.82, xFIP = 3.82.

You. Joe Ryan superstar!!!! 2.93 ERA! Just ignore his first 4 years. This time it's for real!

2024 full seasons at 130 IP

ERA 3.6 according to FG is ranked 38

FIP 3.44 ranked 25

xFIP 3.44 ranked 18

WHIP .99 ranked 7

2023 full season at 160 ip

ERA 4.51 ranked 35

FiP 4.13 ranked 31

xFIP 3.76 ranked 19

WHIP 1.17 ranked 18

 

i never said he was a super star, or an ace, I said he was a top 30 starting pitcher, of which for two full seasons plus, he objectively has been. His first year of arbitration isn’t until 2026. I’m happy with that. There’s value with trading him. I don’t think they should, but there’s value.

 

[twinstalker]

Very serious here: why in the world would anyone mention Marco Raya here?  Exactly what has he done that remotely gives him the title of "rotation depth?"  Why do people keep mentioning him?  What has he done?  Sure, with more massive failures he might/probably eventually become a reliever, but that has no relevance here.  I just don't understand.  He started out not good, he's been promoted while not good, and he doesn't even pitch the innings a starter might.  If Raya were placed on waivers and lost, I wouldn't blink and actually would be happy we had the extra room.

As for the trade Bowden proposed, I doubt the Orioles would do that, but it's very close.  Forret is a really nice pitcher, and he's pretty close.  As long as his lower back tightness turns out to be nothing, he's looking at a promotion to AA soon and is probably (certainly?) a better prospect than Ryan was.  He would immediately be the Twins best prospect pitcher after Zebby.  I'm not a big fan of Mayo, but the package might be enough to convince me to trade Ryan.

 

[PuckettProtector]

Why was this not labelled as satire?

[TopGunn#22]

I never get offended when someone suggests a trade.  That's just "Baseball Talk."  Some of the outrage on TD over this is amusing.  What a suggestion like this DOES DO, is open up discussion about how Twins players could or should be valued.

I don't want to trade Joe Ryan.  When you have a good, controllable SP, you don't trade him.  Because trading him rarely makes the team better.  I will admit though, the conversation with Baltimore begins with Bassalo if you're talking Ryan.  And it wouldn't be one-for one.

Laloesch has the right idea.  The guys to move are Paddack (especially after last night's effort) and SWR.  I think Festa and Zebby are higher ceiling replacements for both.  I leave the core of the rotation:  Lopez, Ryan and Ober alone.  That's the foundation of any team the Twins have for contention now, and going forward.  But I'd aggressively be looking to deal from the edges...Paddack and and SWR.  

The more desperate teams like the Dodgers, Orioles and Cubs get with the fragility of their rotations the more I'm pushing SWR and Paddack for more than they're worth.  Especially if I've got Festa, Matthews and Morris at St. Paul.  

Marca Raya??  He's a throw in to sweeten a deal for a solid catching or shortstop prospect in a Paddack/SWR trade.  At best he's a decent RP at some point, but he'll never be a major league starter.  

So to finish up, I don't mind articles like this, because even though I would have to be blown away for any trade for Ryan, I like hearing other ideas, like moving Paddack and/or SWR.  What could we actually get for those guys?  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

19 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Yeah, even if you want to claim he's more like 40th best SP, which I think bean could more agree to, calling him top 30 isn't the most unreasonable claim. Seems perfectly in bounds. 

It's not like anyone's claimed the Twins have 3 #1s. Or at least in this thread. Feel like I have read exactly that from big homers here before. 

Allow me to throw some support to the Top 30 claim. 

Projections for the Rest of Season by fWAR: 

zips: 20th

steamer: 17th

oopsy: 33rd

atc: 21st

Now, these projection systems largely look at the same data with a similar method so it's not surprising that he'd be looked at favorably in all of them. But I think calling him Top 30 is perfectly reasonable. 

 

Exactly, top 30 out of 150ish pitchers who make a traditional start is a top quartile, statistically significant better than median starting pitcher. Maybe he’s 35, maybe he’s 25, it doesn’t really matter if it’s 31 or 32. He’s not a top 5% he’s not a bottom 2/3. Lots of value there.

[bean5302]

49 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Exactly, top 30 out of 150ish pitchers who make a traditional start is a top quartile, statistically significant better than median starting pitcher. Maybe he’s 35, maybe he’s 25, it doesn’t really matter if it’s 31 or 32. He’s not a top 5% he’s not a bottom 2/3. Lots of value there.

No, he's not. At least not historically. I've done the analysis of where guys like Lopez, Ryan and Ober historically rank in terms of ERA, FIP, xFIP. Stretch the starting pitching innings down to 70-90 to get your 150 starter sample. Over the course of full seasons, Lopez, Ryan and Ober typically fall into that 60-100 range. They're not #1's. Lopez has been back end #2-ish. 

Joe Ryan continues to evolve his repertoire and he's gotten truly excellent results in the first half. He's never had a good 2nd half in his career, and he's never qualified for a championship trophy (literally only missing it by 0.1 innings in 2023). Ryan's best season ever was 2024 where he pitched only 135 innings and ranked 55th in ERA for 156 starters with 70+ innings. 3 WAR doesn't get a top 30 pitchers in baseball title.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

13 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

No, he's not. At least not historically. I've done the analysis of where guys like Lopez, Ryan and Ober historically rank in terms of ERA, FIP, xFIP. Stretch the starting pitching innings down to 70-90 to get your 150 starter sample. Over the course of full seasons, Lopez, Ryan and Ober typically fall into that 60-100 range. They're not #1's. Lopez has been back end #2-ish. 

Joe Ryan continues to evolve his repertoire and he's gotten truly excellent results in the first half. He's never had a good 2nd half in his career, and he's never qualified for a championship trophy (literally only missing it by 0.1 innings in 2023). Ryan's best season ever was 2024 where he pitched only 135 innings and ranked 55th in ERA for 156 starters with 70+ innings. 3 WAR doesn't get a top 30 pitchers in baseball title.

It did in 2024 and 2023 (3.0 fWAR was a 4 way tie at 30, 31, 32 and 33 in 2023, in 2024 it was 37 and 38) If you want to go back to the 70s and 80s and compare that to today, you have to normalize on innings pitched to compare counting/cumulative stats. The game has changed.

[Greglw3]

On 5/9/2025 at 6:38 AM, Doctor Wu said:

Why on earth would the Twins want to trade Joe Ryan? A trade proposal like this one doesn't make much sense to me. 

I agree, a pitcher of Ryan’s caliber only comes along once in a decade or once in a generation. The Twins are now getting passable offense with Carson McCusker, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Jeferson Morales (in my top 20), Brooks Lee (still maturing), Luke Keaschall, Kaelen Culpepper, Walker Jenkins and Kyle DeBarge all possible reinforcements.

With a big 3 of the dominant Pablo Lopez, the dominant Joe Ryan and the near dominant Baily Ober. That’s 3 huge pieces toward a WS champion. If Paddack continues as against SF (a big if, maybe), and Richardson stays himself., the current rotation can win with average to slightly above average hitting.

The Twins shouldn’t break up that big 3 which is potentially a big 3 to take them to the WS, possibly 3 sub 3.00 starters. What would help even more is not subtracting Ryan but adding Zebby Matthews if he can dominate in the Bigs, then you’ve got a legitimate WS contender, if a few things improve for the offense.

[twinstalker]

15 hours ago, twinstalker said:

Very serious here: why in the world would anyone mention Marco Raya here?  Exactly what has he done that remotely gives him the title of "rotation depth?"  Why do people keep mentioning him?  What has he done?  Sure, with more massive failures he might/probably eventually become a reliever, but that has no relevance here.  I just don't understand.  He started out not good, he's been promoted while not good, and he doesn't even pitch the innings a starter might.  If Raya were placed on waivers and lost, I wouldn't blink and actually would be happy we had the extra room.

Holy crap, did I post this before or after Raya most fun blow-up last night?  Regardless, I didn't know about it and am not surprised by it (obviously).  It looks like the timestamp is not on my side and makes this look not as prescient as it really was (pats self on back).  I argued Raya was maybe around #25 prospect-wise prior to the season.  On the other hand, I argued C. Lewis was top ten and DeBarge would be around Raya.  Will wait and see on all.

[NYCTK]

3 hours ago, twinstalker said:

Holy crap, did I post this before or after Raya most fun blow-up last night?  Regardless, I didn't know about it and am not surprised by it (obviously).  It looks like the timestamp is not on my side and makes this look not as prescient as it really was (pats self on back).  I argued Raya was maybe around #25 prospect-wise prior to the season.  On the other hand, I argued C. Lewis was top ten and DeBarge would be around Raya.  Will wait and see on all.

I openly mocked him being ranked #5 on the prospect list. People will ignore results and just point at age for the level. 

[h2oface]

Baltimore, with all its hitting this year, has only scored more runs, at 138, than 5 other teams. We just swept them this year. We need their hitters? They sure were good for most of last year...... but suck so far this short year.

 

[Craig Arko]

Red Sox need a first baseman. Miranda?

[TL]

With an avg to below avg payroll the way to compete is making smart trades. That’s not going to include trading your unwanted, overpaid guys for top 30 prospects unfortunately. I don’t like trading Ryan but he’s at top of his value right now with 2.5 years control remaining. 

pitching pipeline is built for this type of opportunity. I’d explore it. 

[Fatbat]

Need way more for Ryan. This trade would work if it was Paddack or SWR. 

[Mike Sixel]

11 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Need way more for Ryan. This trade would work if it was Paddack or SWR. 

You aren't getting that much for paddock. And likely not SWR either. But I'm not dealing Ryan for at least another year plus. 

[Major League Ready]

5 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

You aren't getting that much for paddock. And likely not SWR either. But I'm not dealing Ryan for at least another year plus. 

They are praying Paddock can string together some good starts so they can trade him and move Matthews into the rotation.  If not, I would hope they move Paddack to a BP role and get Matthews up in June.  I agree any trade of Ryan / Lopez or Ober is at least a year from now unless someone blows them away with an offer. 

[Fatbat]

5 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

They are praying Paddock can string together some good starts so they can trade him and move Matthews into the rotation.  If not, I would hope they move Paddack to a BP role and get Matthews up in June.  I agree any trade of Ryan / Lopez or Ober is at least a year from now unless someone blows them away with an offer. 

They keep winning and no trade will happen. I wouldn’t trade Ryan. Just pay him the $$$.