Breaking Down Rocco Baldelli’s Decision to Pull Bailey Ober

[Otaknam]

Another frustrating loss directly attributed to Baldelli not trusting his starters. 

[tony&rodney]

13 minutes ago, Jeff K said:

Your caveat is noted.  Failing that, there is no way I would pull Ober.  This is a perfect example of overthinking by the manager.  Something Baldelli excels at.

Personally I see no future in trying to understand whatever Baldelli is thinking. Mostly, I also attempt to stay away from second guessing him as well but pulling Ober was something beyond acceptance.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

35 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Unless Ober told Maki or Baldelli that he was finished, it is simply folly to construct veins of excuses to remove Ober from the game. Ask yourself - is Ober a max effort pitcher? Does his velocity create outs? If you answer either of those questions with a yes, you have created your own excuse. My experience watching Ober is that he thrives on pitch selection mixed with hitting locations. Ober is easily capable of 100+ pitches, especially when one considers the weather. It doesn't make any difference if Ober was going to face the top of the lineup a fourth time. He was totally in control of the game. The Royals hitters were all happy and energized when they didn't see him walk out to the mound for the 7th inning. There was no data on yesterday's game when the decision was made to pull Ober. I have enormous confidence in the bullpen. The Twins have a good pitching staff. The offense is not producing runs and most of the bats are feeling for the ball unsuccessfully. None of that has anything to do with pulling Ober at 73 pitches in a game he totally controlled. Now I will repeat the caveat of whether Ober said anything to Maki or Baldelli. Did he?

100% agreed, we don’t know what was said. We also don’t know if Ober and the training staff had a ramp up plan, or nutrition/weight gain.

If Ober were injured in the 7th, every TDer would be raising pitch forks and torches with “he was sick and still ramping up, why the hell did Rocco trot him back out?”

We know he was pulled after a velo dip. I have a hard time blaming a manager/training staff protecting player health, if that was the reason. Pablo is on the IL, Paddack looks cooked, Festa and Matthews are both on their way up imminently, if Ober goes down too that rotation gets real thin in a hurry with 150 games to play.

[Linus]

My takeaway is that when you can’t score any runs you are only in the game if it is a close game where each mistake or decision is magnified. I will say that of all the reasons proposed for pulling him, not having a reliever start in the middle of an inning is lame. I know it is conventional wisdom in baseball now but if I have a reliever that curls up in the fetal position if they get brought in to the middle of the inning I’m getting a different reliever. Think of how many times this situation comes up during the course of the season. 

[LambchoP]

I am disliking Rocco more and more as this horrible season goes on. Pulling him after 73 pitches after only giving up one run with an overworked bullpen? He forces Ober out there when he's sick and weak, but then pulls him when he's healthy and effective. Of course none of this matters if we can't score runs but come on, it sure doesn't help. I'm officially on the fire Rocco bandwagon. He seems to not only make dumb decisions, but since last year's free fall he gets the absolute worst out of our guys. Need some new blood on this team. Both in the coaches box and on the field.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Jkeady12 said:

Everybody gets on me when I post that Rocco is a sub-par manager, but as always he comes through and proves me right. In game decision making and when to use the bullen are not his strong suit.

You nailed it.  He's weak at making decisions a manager has to make.

Seems like he shouldn't have the job.

[notoriousgod71]

The infuriating thing is baldelli plays to get a certain amount of innings out of each pitcher regardless of outcome. It couldn't have been a pitch count issue as this is the least amount of pitches ober has thrown this season.

He'd have been left out there for more pitches if he was getting rocked. Performance appears to have nothing to do with how long someone pitches. It's just their preordained time.

 

Pulling ober too early in KC was basically the game that ended the twins last season. Why should this year be any different?

[nicksaviking]

Whether he's basing the decision on 100 pitches or basing it on three times through the order, he's not 'using analytics' to make this decision. This is just rote memorization of conventional wisdom. Either traditional (100 pitches) or more modern (3x through the order). 

You don't use a computer to count how many times Bobby Witt Jr has been to bat, you use an abacus.

[Linus]

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Whether he's basing the decision on 100 pitches or basing it on three times through the order, he's not 'using analytics' to make this decision. This is just rote memorization of conventional wisdom. Either traditional (100 pitches) or more modern (3x through the order). 

You don't use a computer to count how many times Bobby Witt Jr has been to bat, you use an abacus.

Or your fingers 😀

[MrAV]

It’s time for Rocco to take a page from George Costanza.  He should do the opposite of whatever his instincts tell him to do.

[TwinsDr2021]

31 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

If Ober were injured in the 7th, every TDer would be raising pitch forks and torches with “he was sick and still ramping up, why the hell did Rocco trot him back out?”

I highly, highly doubt this to be a true statement, I mean maybe a couple of people that complain no matter what, I think the discussion would be more about how every Twins player gets hurt not leaving Ober in.

Statements like this (and this article) just runs cover for bad decisions. 

[T.O.]

Is there any real chance Baldelli will get fired soon? It would seem doing so would be an admission of failure by the FO.
Would the owners step in and make that decision? Do they even care what's going on?

He can't be gone too soon for me.

[terrydactyls]

Let me see if I correctly understand "modern" analytical thinking.  Pitch count and number of times through the order are the major factors in deciding whether or not to pull a starter?  And times through the order outranks pitch count?  Ober had a pitch count of 73 after six innings, so that isn't a major concern.  That leaves the number of times facing a batter as the primary reason for replacing him.  BUT WAIT!  THERE'S MORE!  Ober had already faced the top of the Royals' order AND the heart of the Royals' order three times.  Are the bottom three hitters that formidable that Ober can't face them?  Udder nonsense (as any dairy farmer will tell you - pun intended).

[Richie the Rally Goat]

20 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I highly, highly doubt this to be a true statement, I mean maybe a couple of people that complain no matter what, I think the discussion would be more about how every Twins player gets hurt not leaving Ober in.

Statements like this (and this article) just runs cover for bad decisions. 

I think Rocco makes a ton of bad decisions. I’m not sure this is one of them. Maybe it was…

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, Twinsoholic said:

Matthew Taylor writes: “But while we’ll never know how things might have gone had Ober stayed in to start the seventh, Baldelli’s choice was grounded in real data, recent performance, and a desire to avoid worst-case scenarios. You might not like the outcome, but the process had logic behind it.”

 

The ghost of Earl Weaver says Big Deal if there was “real data” contextualizing Baldelli’s decision to remove Ober. Weaver also relied on “real data” when he guided the Orioles, counting on his starting pitchers’ athletic ability to pitch deep into games (and be super successful). 
 

We live in an age of fetishization of “real data,” the rhetoric of numbers, so I assume Baldelli will remain consistent in his anti-Weaverian approach. Perhaps Sands will do better next time—I am sure he will get a lot of similar chances. 

It's absolutely hilarious to invoke Earl Weaver in an anti-analytics screed. Earl was one of the forerunners of modern analytics in how he constructed and ran his teams. 

But we've also seen that Baldelli generally lets his starters go as long as anyone in the league...when his starting pitching is good. But he (and this is true of most managers today) doesn't just go "well, it's one of my best guys, that's the most important thing". 

This kind of decision is one that there's literally no way for the manager to win on: if he pulls Ober and 'pen implodes, he's an idiot. If he leave him in and Ober melts down, he should have known better. If he leave him in and Ober cruises through another inning, then it's all because of Ober. (and he'll get killed if he goes to the bullpen for the 8th too). Even if the bullpen gets through the inning, he's going to get hit for pulling his starter "too early" and using up his bullpen.

Baldelli made a significant mistake in letting Ober start in StL while needing more recovery time. Since it was the start of the season there's no reason they couldn't have shuffled the rotation or simply given Dobnak the start. that's a case of him probably trusting the player too much. Now people are mad because he supposedly didn't trust the player enough.

I think Baldelli has some problems with lineups and bullpen usage. But he's generally been good at handling the starting pitching. Last night was just one of those ones where it went sideways. the problem is, he's getting the worst possible result on these kinds of decisions that ight normally go his way most of the time right now as the team flails. This magnifies the impact of those choices and makes him look worse than he probably is.

If the team doesn't score more runs and win more close games it's not going to matter much: he'll eventually get fired. Baldelli is like most managers in baseball: he looks good when his players are good and are healthy. He looks bad when his players are playing poorly and his got a bunch of injuries to deal with. Right now, too many guys are still playing poorly, especially on offense.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 minute ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

I think Rocco makes a ton of bad decisions. I’m not sure this is one of them. Maybe it was…

They lost the game pulling a starter after 73 pitches without having much trouble with the Royals lineup since the first inning, and I can't be the only one that thought, oh this isn't going to go well since we need three inning and really only have Sands and Duran. And even if it goes well, the next three starts the Twins very likely will need a rested bullpen behind and AAA call up, Paddack and SWR.

After what Ryan gave them and then if Ober can go 7 their bullpen was set up very nicely for a weekend series against the Tigers.

[notoriousgod71]

42 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Whether he's basing the decision on 100 pitches or basing it on three times through the order, he's not 'using analytics' to make this decision. This is just rote memorization of conventional wisdom. Either traditional (100 pitches) or more modern (3x through the order). 

You don't use a computer to count how many times Bobby Witt Jr has been to bat, you use an abacus.

Can you imagine how confusing this would get for Rocco if they added the golden batter or whatever they're calling it?

 

WITT HAS BATTED THREE TIMES ALREADY AND ITS ONLY THE THIRD INNING! GET HIM OUT!

[DJL44]

Ober should have been able to get the 7-8-9 hitters out. Of course, Sands should have been able to get them out as well.

The Twins were horrible at allowing inherited runners to score last year. It seems like Rocco's solution to that is to always have relievers start a clean inning. That's not a reasonable solution.

[USAFChief]

I'm firmly in the "Rocco is objectively bad and must go" camp, but i had no problem with his decision to remove Ober yesterday. 

Watching the game, Ober was clearly losing his stuff and was, IMO, lucky to get through the 6th. 

I also generally believe in "lost leads late by a starter are on the manager, lost leads late by a reluever are on the reliever" theory.

Sands was bad yesterday. Really bad. A HBP to the backup catcher? Can't put away the 9 hitter? That's on Sands.

I want Rocco gone. Last year. There are so, so many reasons. 

But I don't think this is on him.

 

[D.C Twins]

Of course it was a bad decision both in retrospect and real time.

But its Rocco.... so certainly not a surprising decision in anyway. 

It will happen again this season... many times.... just like last season

[Twinsoholic]

jmlease1 writes: “It is absolutely hilarious to invoke Earl Weaver in an anti-analytics screed. Earl was one of the forerunners of modern analytics in how he constructed and ran his teams.”

 

Watch any Orioles telecast when Jim Palmer is one of the broadcasters and a starting pitcher—who has been pitching well and has a moderate pitch count—is removed after the 5th or 6th inning. Palmer will inevitably lament the decision and point out the success of Orioles starters under Weaver going deep into games, i.e., pitching at least through the 7th inning. In the Ober example, Palmer would no doubt note that the next three scheduled hitters comprise the bottom of the batting order  

Weaver was a superbly astute manager who was anything but mechanical. He managed with gutsy, passionate intelligence. Whether or not he can be called a forerunner of analytics I will leave up to each reader’s discretion. 
 

None of us has a crystal ball, and we will never know what would have happened if Ober rather than Sands pitched the 7th inning. All we know is the Sands outcome (set up by Rocco’s managerial decision) just like all we know is the outcome of Jax pitching to Vinnie P  rather than intentionally walking him after Jax’s crazy throwing error which allow Witt to go from being an out at first to standing safely on third. Rocco’s decision was to pitch to Vinnie, a left-handed batter, with a slow, right-handed batter on deck. Weaver (Tom Kelly, Joe Torre, Felipe Alou, Dusty Baker, Sparky Anderson, Casey Stengel, etc.) would have ordered Jax to intentionally walk Vinnie (empirical baseball acumen, for over 100 years). 
 

 

 

 

[Mark Torgerson]

This has always been Rocco.    I thought he was going to try and change.  Whether its playing the infield in way too often, not throwing to second base on a 1st and 3rd situation, pulling a starter too soon or never bunting.  I could go on, but I don't feel it will really change the way he manages.  The Twins were going to change their hitting approach this year and yet, they are struggling as bad as they have ever been scoring runs.  Our best hitters have been Ty France and Bader, two players who weren't with the Twins last year.  It was another game that our 2 best relief pitchers didn't see the mound because we lost the lead in the 7th.  Let Ober clean up the bottom of the order.  If a batter gets on, isn't it the job of a relief pitcher to come in and get out of jams?  I love the Twins, but I am not a Rocco fan at all because I feel a manager sometimes has to go with his guts and trust his players more.  One more thing while I am venting - Rocco keeps sending up pinch hitters that are just not good at it.  Margot last year was 0 for 25 and yesterday he sends up a pinch hitter who has one infield single in his major league career because that is what the numbers say.  

[Maybe Next Year]

Oh my. The data says this, the data says that. Data,data,data. How about some baseball sense! Ober is breezing through 6 innings and only thrown 73 pitches. His fastball was 2 MPH slower than the start of the game. Whoop-dee-doo. His off-speed stuff was still working great. He would be facing the bottom of the order. Your bullpen arms are warmed up in case he runs into trouble. You leave him in the damn game.

[AKTwinsFan]

I don't think much of his decisions are the "right" ones. I've kinda given up on the success of my favorite team. I think the players feel the vibe and are also down. Come trade deadline we should just move on from the big 2-3 who never play, or just flat out under perform.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Whether he's basing the decision on 100 pitches or basing it on three times through the order, he's not 'using analytics' to make this decision. This is just rote memorization of conventional wisdom. Either traditional (100 pitches) or more modern (3x through the order). 

You don't use a computer to count how many times Bobby Witt Jr has been to bat, you use an abacus.

this is the thing though: they're clearly not just doing it based purely on pitch count or number of times through the order. They're also looking at his velocity and factoring in his illness and lack of innings so far. Whether or not they made the correct decision in this case, we'll never actually know, but it's not a dogmatic "ope, you're going to face the top of the order for the 4th time, so out you go!"

This is why so many of the "Rocco manages off a spreadsheet" and the anti-analytic arguments are unpersuasive. cherry-picking 1 or 2 bits to reach a predetermined conclusion doesn't convince many people of anything, just encourages those that already agree.

I don't think Rocco has done a particularly good job so far; there have been decisions that were questionable at the time that have not gone his way, and basically none of the levers he's pulled have worked so far. But in baseball I always lay the vast majority of the blame on the players. Even the actively bad/stupid managers aren't going to substantially change a team's destiny. Look at the White Sox last season: would a good manager have made them an average team? No. At best we're talking about going from historically bad to just regular bad. Sizemore was ok as a manager when he took over, but the team still stunk. (even the fire sale didn't make much impact; Fedde was the only guy playing well, maybe gets them a few more wins, but it was the end of July with 2/3 of the season already done and dusted.)

[stringer bell]

The team hasn’t succeeded, so Rocco is probably toast. We can second-guess the next guy. I’d be very surprised if he’s going to magically always be right when it’s time to lift a pitcher. 

[1985Fan]

1 hour ago, T.O. said:

Is there any real chance Baldelli will get fired soon? It would seem doing so would be an admission of failure by the FO.
Would the owners step in and make that decision? Do they even care what's going on?

He can't be gone too soon for me.

As someone else posted here; we’re stuck with Baldelli until new ownership takes control. I hope they will fire both Falvey and Rocco. Falvey has failed to put decent players on the roster that can hit. Give him credit for the pitching pipeline he’s developed, but the lack of players coming through the system that contribute at the MLB level is the problem. A lot of hype for Lewis, Wallner, Larnach, Lee, Julien, etc., but they have not shown they can hit consistently. They can’t score runs and add in Rocco’s game time management errors and you have a perfect cocktail for a losing season. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Rocco's decisions are always fun to second guess - but, you can't leave runners stranded at 3B when you have less than one out.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Basically, the Twins, IYAM, are a team with a mediocre (at best) manager and a mediocre (at best) roster.

[Sjoski]

4 hours ago, Doug V said:

Baldelli does this all the time. Who would want to be a starting pitcher for this guy. Fake news that the twins bullpen is their strength. 

It was never spoken outright...but I always felt Sonny Gray was never going to resign with Minnesota even if they wanted him.

 

Gray even made a few subtle comments during his time in Minnesota that hinted at his frustration with being yanked early. It wasn’t blatant, but if you read between the lines, it was clear he wasn’t thrilled with the leash he was given.