Chris Paddack Has Earned His Rotation Spot. Now, He Just Has to Prove He Can Keep It.

[Cody Pirkl]

The veteran right-hander made the Twins’ Opening Day rotation, and it seems like this decision was never in doubt. Some may argue this is based on his salary, but he earned this opportunity.

Image courtesy of © Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Coming off another injury-plagued season, Chris Paddack looks to bounce back in 2025 and reestablish his value before hitting free agency. Despite being far from a sure thing, he’ll have a rotation spot from the get-go. The Twins have several other worthy candidates for his role, but Paddack has earned it.

In three years with the Twins organization, Paddack has yet to make a significant impact. The shine of his early career has worn off, as he’s struggled with injuries and inconsistency. After another season-ending injury in 2024, the Twins stuck with Paddack, instead of dumping his salary this offseason or simply awarding a younger arm with his rotation spot. There are several arguments to support this decision, including roster construction, finances, and the maintenance of organizational depth. Still, Paddack himself has done his part to justify it.

Paddack’s 2024 season was underwhelming, but far from a failure. In 88 innings, he posted an ERA of just under 5.00, with his peripherals (such as FIP and xFIP) suggesting that better times may have been ahead had he stayed healthy. He was on pace to be worth around 2 Wins Above Replacement in FanGraphs's calculation, which would be a more-than-capable back-end starting pitcher in any rotation.

Michael Lorenzen signed with Kansas City this winter for $7 million. Mike Soroka signed with Washington for $9 million. A 37-year-old Alex Cobb pitched 16 innings last season and signed with Detroit for $15 million. If we look at Paddack alongside those hurlers, he fares well. His health concerns are no reason to keep him from the Opening Day rotation; he can be swapped out anytime.

Speaking of health, Paddack has given the Twins no reason to doubt where he’s at. He’s struck out 26.7% of hitters he’s faced this spring, and has a walk rate of just 3.3%. His surface-level performance won’t blow anyone away, but four of the seven runs he’s allowed this spring came in his first appearance on March 7th.

More recently, Paddack has shown signs of a pitcher the Twins haven’t seen since he returned in a bullpen role in 2023. Rocco Baldelli noted as much, saying it’s the best he’s seen Paddack pitch. One outing in spring training only matters so much, and the rotation battle was never much of an actual competition. Still, for Paddack to dominate as he did so close to the regular season has to count for something.

When healthy, Paddack was more than serviceable in 2024 and has looked better as spring training has ramped up. While pitchers like Zebby Matthews or David Festa are more exciting options who are likelier to figure into the long-term picture, neither is without concerns of their own, and having to earn a spot by dominating in St. Paul isn’t the worst thing. We’ll see them both this season, but keeping Paddack in the organization and stretched out as a starter best allows them to manage the eventuality of injuries.

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Who knows what Chris Paddack’s ceiling is at this point, or how he’ll hold up physically in 2025? For now, he’s earned a rotation spot, based on his performance in 2024 and how he’s looked this spring. Do you agree?

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[Karbo]

Another one of those "can he stay healthy" question marks for the Twins. I believe he can be one of the better 4 or 5 slot pitchers. Pitching for a contract should certainly motivate him.

[LA Vikes Fan]

All good points. Paddack has looked better than most in ST. Having said that, he's an injury waiting to happen and has never been consistent. I would be thrilled with 20-25 starts, 125 or so innings, an ERA under 4.25, and a team winning record in games he starts. I think that may be possible. We just have to plan for at least one IL stint and at least 4 weeks of unavailability over the 6 month season. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

He's the veteran. He's under contract.  He looked good in spring training.  I'm not sure why you wouldn't give him the spot.  The beauty of where we seem to be with starting pitchers is that we have plenty of depth if we need to sub someone out, so the risk seems pretty low.  The prospects can pitch and stay hungry in St. Paul.  Their day will come soon enough.

[jmlease1]

If he's healthy, Paddack is a capable 4th or 5th starter, which is the role he's expected to play for the twins. If he struggles or gets injured (again), we have festa, matthews, morris, raya and more waiting in the wings looking for an opportunity.

If paddack is ok and healthy but one of the others is absolutely crushing it in AAA, there's no reason paddack couldn't get moved at the deadline or shifted into a bullpen role.

I like the fact that we have realistic options for rotation depth that go more than 1-2 deep.

[Fatbat]

He is pitching for his next contract so expect great results until he is injured.  If he kicks the injury bug, he will have a career best season! Don’t worry about how he does because there are 2-4 very capable guys behind him in the pipeline so we will be just fine if/when he hits the IL. 

[DJL44]

If he gives them 10 good starts, I would try to sell high.

[sweetmusicviola16]

 Randy Dobnak is also making the Opening Day roster

[Mark G]

A rhetorical question:  is he making the roster because he has proved himself, or is he there because we couldn't find a buyer, and are still waiting to?  

[mikelink45]

Another wait and see.  I hope he does well and because he is not signed beyond this year I hope he is worth a good prospect at trade deadline.

[tony&rodney]

Paddack was as good as he can be this ST. Those expecting 100 innings should not gamble. Earned? The Twins stated he was in the plans for the rotation at the beginning of ST. There were $7.5M reasons that the front office made the call. The best we can do is wish him luck. 

[bean5302]

Quote

Paddack’s 2024 season was underwhelming, but far from a failure. In 88 innings, he posted an ERA of just under 5.00

How low is this bar? Is it actually like a closet rod rolling on the ground? 

Paddack earned a DFA/release last year, but his contract prevented it.

[Hubie29]

All it takes is a 4.50 era! Very sad bar we have set. 

[twinstalker]

When Chris Paddack was a prospect post his first TJS, I really thought he'd be a star, and he started out that way.  Then he got hurt again, obviously needing another TJS, the Twins traded for him anyway(!), and he soon had the second TJS.  It's been a mess.

There was something high-MLB there, though.  I doubt we're teased by it again.  The best thing that could happen is for him to make seven great starts, and the Twins trade him.  Of course, nobody would be happy with that scenario.  But that should be the strategy.  There are four guys at AAA who would probably pitch as well or better than what Paddack would do the rest of the season after that.  At least I think Lewis will start at AAA!  But the Twins need to act fast if Paddack is pitching well through May.

[sweetmusicviola16]

1 hour ago, twinstalker said:

When Chris Paddack was a prospect post his first TJS, I really thought he'd be a star, and he started out that way.  Then he got hurt again, obviously needing another TJS, the Twins traded for him anyway(!), and he soon had the second TJS.  It's been a mess.

There was something high-MLB there, though.  I doubt we're teased by it again.  The best thing that could happen is for him to make seven great starts, and the Twins trade him.  Of course, nobody would be happy with that scenario.  But that should be the strategy.  There are four guys at AAA who would probably pitch as well or better than what Paddack would do the rest of the season after that.  At least I think Lewis will start at AAA!  But the Twins need to act fast if Paddack is pitching well through May.

Yes. If he is still healthy June 01 and has pitched at a #4 SP level we should absolutely be moving him. That gets Festa, Matthews, etc two months of seasoning and we get a prospect. The better Paddack pitches probably the better the prospect, and it only costs the acquiring team 5mil by then.

[Fatbat]

4 hours ago, Mark G said:

A rhetorical question:  is he making the roster because he has proved himself, or is he there because we couldn't find a buyer, and are still waiting to?  

He is making the roster because he can pitch 5-6 innings and keep the score low. What more do you want from a 4/5 SP?  I know…. We would all like to have 4 aces on the staff. We almost have 3.  If he stays healthy all season, I bet he has 16 wins. 

[Major League Ready]

He looked good in spring training and should get a spot in the rotation.  Having said this, I hope Paddack performs well but Zebby or Festa or both are just so damn good that they push him to the BP or a trade.  If it's Prielipp, that would be fine too, I just don't see him getting a lot of innings this year.

[DocBauer]

3 hours ago, Hubie29 said:

All it takes is a 4.50 era! Very sad bar we have set. 

Actually, a 5th ML starter with a 4.50 ERA wouldn't be far off from average.

[Hubie29]

13 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Actually, a 5th ML starter with a 4.50 ERA wouldn't be far off from average.

But he's a 4.  And a 4.5 era is optimistic for him.  Also, 4.5 runs given up a game isn't going to cut it with this offense. 

[Hubie29]

2 hours ago, Fatbat said:

He is making the roster because he can pitch 5-6 innings and keep the score low. What more do you want from a 4/5 SP?  I know…. We would all like to have 4 aces on the staff. We almost have 3.  If he stays healthy all season, I bet he has 16 wins. 

16? You must be kidding.  It's going to be a struggle for any Twins starter to get to 16, and he's 4th, 5th, or worse in the pitching heirarchy on this team.  He would be very lucky to get to 10 wins. Maybe 6-7 if the offense can support him. 

[DocBauer]

6 hours ago, Mark G said:

A rhetorical question:  is he making the roster because he has proved himself, or is he there because we couldn't find a buyer, and are still waiting to?  

Take it for what it's worth, but various rumors over the offseason had multiple teams asking about him in trade. As the OP stated, there were some surprising offers made to pitchers. Some teams saw/see his contract and potential value as an under 30yo arm with some upside. So do the Twins. And the FO has stated they didn't like the returns offered vs his potential so they declined to move him.

To be clear, I think the Twins have a couple arms that will end up better than Paddack...possibly also SWR...at some point. And I'm NOT a Paddack apologist. But he was kept for reasons other teams were interested. [They COULD HAVE just DUMPED his contract if they wanted to].

1] From a Twins perspective, like Ober in 2023, you maintain early season depth to allow your top, young pitchers to continue to work and prepare. They WILL be needed.

2] When Paddack arrived in MLB he was primarily a 2 pitch pitcher with a FB and change. While with the Twins, he has developed a pair of decent breaking balls. His high quality change, from what I've heard, got lost. In 2024, he had a few quality starts with decent velocity, but had games where he struggled and couldn't maintain his velocity.

3] So far removed now from his 2nd TJ surgery, the hope is he can not only maintain his velocity, but he may gain a better feel for his changeup. Remember when Maeda was only semi good/productive in 2023 before some rest and a re-set and then was pretty good the rest of the season? Well now picture a harder throwing arm 5 years younger. 

I have no illusions of Paddack being a surprise stud arm. And really, there's no reason to expect another major injury at this point. But it's very possible he's going to throw 5+ successful innings per with around 9K per and a high 3 or low 4 ish ERA as a solid back end starter. 

It's also possible he's just one of those arms with great talent that never matches reality due to injury. But with the little we've seen of him, some development, seemingly good health, with experience, I don't think he's going to disappoint, even if he's not great. 

But how crazy would it be if arms like Festa, Matthews, and others would be looking so good Paddack MIGHT be tradeable at the deadline?

[Fatbat]

43 minutes ago, Hubie29 said:

16? You must be kidding.  It's going to be a struggle for any Twins starter to get to 16, and he's 4th, 5th, or worse in the pitching heirarchy on this team.  He would be very lucky to get to 10 wins. Maybe 6-7 if the offense can support him. 

All we need is the best bullpen in baseball. Which we have if Stewart gets healthy.  It worked for Cleveland last year and half their SP sucked. 

[Fatbat]

@DocBauer Paddack has an equal chance to end up in the bullpen in September so they can save his arm for the playoffs.  We won’t be selling anyone if we have everyone healthy and wins are piling up. 

[GNess]

First things first Paddock can be a boost to the Twins postseason aspirations if he pitches like he is capable prior to the deadline. If one or more between Festa, Morris, Matthews and/or Raya are deemed ready then the Twins should consider dealing Paddock from the surplus. Paddock shouldn't be moved just because he is a tradeable asset.

[JD-TWINS]

I just do not see any benefit in trading Paddack at the deadline. If he’s hurt or not pitching well the return is zero. If he’s healthy, the Twins can use him over the remainder of the season. If he’s healthy and Twins are out of the race, they have little leverage and get back some A ball flyer prospect.

I don’t have a problem with him in the rotation in April. He has a maximum of maybe 110 effective innings, IMO. Let him start while things go well for 50-60 days and the young guys sharpen up in St. Paul. Then a “tired arm” IL break in June. He comes back in mid-July and throws a couple times a week out of the bullpen……maybe 4 innings. That’s 55 innings through May & another 40-45 innings out of the Pen in 2nd half………..maybe a couple 3-4 inning spot starts in August-September? He stays fresh and effective and is available late in the year for max effort help out of the Pen.

A good value at $7M.

[DJL44]

14 hours ago, Fatbat said:

If he stays healthy all season, I bet he has 16 wins. 

Chris Paddack leading the American League in Wins is the hottest take I've seen this spring.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

I just do not see any benefit in trading Paddack at the deadline. If he’s hurt or not pitching well the return is zero. If he’s healthy, the Twins can use him over the remainder of the season. If he’s healthy and Twins are out of the race, they have little leverage and get back some A ball flyer prospect.

If he's healthy, you trade him before he gets hurt again. I don't trust him to go over 120 innings. I think they need to trade him well before the deadline.

[Fatbat]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Chris Paddack leading the American League in Wins is the hottest take I've seen this spring.

Lots of things go into that prediction. Someone will have more than 16 tho.

he will most often be lined up in the rotation with an opposing pitcher that is not as good as he is. He has a great bullpen behind him that most other teams do not have.  I’m not saying his performances will all be stellar but this is a team game and the guys backing him up will help his success and win count. 

[LambchoP]

I was also thinking if he stays healthy and effective, but we also have someone in AAA banging down the door for a call up, maybe we could aquire a bat for Paddack at the deadline before he inevitably goes down....

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

I just do not see any benefit in trading Paddack at the deadline. If he’s hurt or not pitching well the return is zero. If he’s healthy, the Twins can use him over the remainder of the season. If he’s healthy and Twins are out of the race, they have little leverage and get back some A ball flyer prospect.

I don’t have a problem with him in the rotation in April. He has a maximum of maybe 110 effective innings, IMO. Let him start while things go well for 50-60 days and the young guys sharpen up in St. Paul. Then a “tired arm” IL break in June. He comes back in mid-July and throws a couple times a week out of the bullpen……maybe 4 innings. That’s 55 innings through May & another 40-45 innings out of the Pen in 2nd half………..maybe a couple 3-4 inning spot starts in August-September? He stays fresh and effective and is available late in the year for max effort help out of the Pen.

A good value at $7M.

Why would they have "little leverage" because they are out of the race?  What if he is pitching reasonably well but Zebby is pitching lights out in AAA?  We are not going to get an impact bat from a contender looking to shore up their rotation for the rest of the season but a solid SP likely has more value than an A ball flyer.  There are always teams that as a result of injury are starved for starting pitching.