Flourish or Flounder: 2025 is Jose Miranda's Last Shot to Prove He's the Twins' Long-Term First Baseman

[Matthew Lenz]

Despite a 2024 campaign that saw him produce at the plate and provide solid defense at first, his role on the 2025 team is in flux. It's time for him to hit like he's running out of time, because he is.

Image courtesy of © Peter Aiken-Imagn Images

For the first half of last season, Jose Miranda was arguably the MVP of the Minnesota Twins. In 255 at-bats, he carried an .888 OPS with 30 extra-base hits (nine of them home runs); a solid strikeout rate; and decent batted-ball data. Then, like much of the team, everything went to hell for Miranda around mid-August. Over the final two months, his OPS plummeted more than 300 points; he had only 10 extra-base hits (none of which left the park); his strikeout rate climbed nearly six percentage points; and his quality of contact was below average. It really wasn't all that surprising of a fall-off, as his aggressive approach at the plate leaves him vulnerable to inconsistency. A sub-20% strikeout rate looks good, but there are underlying concerns when that's coupled with a sub-5% walk rate.

That slump (and concerns about his overall profile) forced the Twins' hand in finding someone who could more consistently produce while playing first base. In fact, before spring training even started, Twins’ manager Rocco Baldelli all but anointed Ty France as the starting first baseman. If you're like me, that led you to believe that Miranda would be on the short side of a platoon at first, while also covering at third when Royce Lewis needs a day off (or gets injured).

Almost a month since Baldelli’s proclamation, Miranda has only played parts of three games at first while Eduoard Julien and Mickey Gasper battle it out behind France. Realistically, Julien and Gasper aren’t threats to make a significant dent in Miranda’s playing time. It's more likely that the two are fighting for the last bench spot on the roster, and that's why both are getting time at first base: for the at-bats, rather than the defensive exposure. Baldelli is ensuring that both are provided plenty of opportunities to compete for a spot on the Opening Day roster as a utility option.

Miranda’s role as the secondary option at first and at the hot corner does seem to be intact, as he's made the second-most appearances on the team during Grapefruit League action. He's looked solid, with more walks than strikeouts and a .708 OPS, albeit with a solitary home run as his lone extra-base hit. Yet, even coming off a 120 wRC+ season and with four years of team control remaining, he might end up in a reserve role.

While that certainly does seem to be the case, Miranda provides a pretty solid safety net for two players surrounded by questions. In addition to a slump of his own over the second half of the season, Lewis has a lengthy injury history. Him playing 140 games—heck, even 120 games—is far from a guarantee. France is coming off a career-worst season that saw him accrue -0.9 fWAR across 140 games. One way or another, especially when you consider the rotating DH position in the order, it seems likely that Miranda will find a way to get at-bats.

The Twins sent an interesting message to Miranda by bringing in France and quickly naming him the starter. It showed that the team currently doesn't see him as the primary first baseman, despite a good 2024 season. While the signing lessens his role in 2025, he needs to leverage this limited opportunity to establish himself as the long-term first baseman after France’s one-year pact expires. Only time will tell if he will flourish—or flounder, and force the Twins' hand again next offseason. In that case, he'd probably end up facing the same questions in new colors next spring.

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What is your long-term outlook for Jose Miranda? Join the conversation in the comments!

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[Linus]

I largely agree with the premise of the article.  I would say this applies to Julien, Larnach, Martin, Lewis and Wallner to varying degrees.  2025 is going to be a pivotal year for all of these guys.

[glunn]

I have a hunch that this will be a breakout year for Miranda.

[Parfigliano]

27 minutes ago, glunn said:

I have a hunch that this will be a breakout year for Miranda.

I have that break out year hunch about Julien and more so Wallner.

[bean5302]

Miranda
2022 483 PA - wRC+ 116
2023 152 PA - wRC+ 56 (off season shoulder surgery)
2024 429 PA - wRC+ 115
2025 Last chance, buddy! Every month better be way above average or else!

The reality is Ty France is almost certain to be handed the every day 1B job by Baldelli. Miranda's going to have a real hard time proving he's the 1B of the future unless he's allowed to play there.

[HerbieFan]

I'd guess we'll see Miranda at DH more than 1B.  They just need to make sure he gets enough ABs to answer the question about his hitting.

[Guest]

I'm going with "no."

[Hrbeks Divot]

Even if France bounces back at the plate to 2022 numbers I’m not sure why he’s been anointed the starting first baseman.  With France‘s defensive history. I’d much prefer to see Miranda get a crack at first and France get the majority of his AB’s at DH. If Miranda is average you’ve got a plan for the next couple of years.

[Doctor Wu]

Miranda deserves an everyday spot on the lineup, but whether that's at 1B or DH, I honestly don't know. I suppose he can/will juggle between the two spots. As long as he's hitting like he's capable of doing, I'm sure they will find a spot for him. 

[Whitey333]

I agree with the article and the comments from a previous poster.  Miranda surely isn't the only one that needs to prove he belongs.  Add Julien, Lee, Martin, and a host of others.  It's put up time.

[MesaTwinsFan]

Miranda should be an everyday player. His hitting skills are far superior to France Julian and several others that Rocco is in love with. I feel Miranda will be around longer than Rocco and France 

[Bodie]

Nope.

He has minor league options, so his paycheck is secure.

 

Still wondering who you confused with Miranda, as his defense was only "solid" if grading against high school players.  And not Legion ball players, just "regular" H.S.ers...

[rv78]

 

1 hour ago, Doctor Wu said:

Miranda deserves an everyday spot on the lineup, but whether that's at 1B or DH, I honestly don't know.

There are a lot of players that deserve an everyday spot in the lineup. Unfortunately with Rocco that isn't going to happen unless your name is Correa. Every other hitter on the roster will come to the ball park everyday not knowing IF they are playing, WHERE they are playing or WHEN they are playing. 

1 hour ago, MesaTwinsFan said:

I feel Miranda will be around longer than Rocco and France 

We can only hope so!

[NYCTK]

13 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Miranda
2022 483 PA - wRC+ 116
2023 152 PA - wRC+ 56 (off season shoulder surgery)
2024 429 PA - wRC+ 115
2025 Last chance, buddy! Every month better be way above average or else!

The reality is Ty France is almost certain to be handed the every day 1B job by Baldelli. Miranda's going to have a real hard time proving he's the 1B of the future unless he's allowed to play there.

The thing is Miranda is no longer a league minimum player next year. If he isn't non-tendered, he's instantly more expensive than Ty France was this season. So...yeah, it kind of is his last chance, at least with the Twins. I think that's being a bit hyperbolic, but it's not completely out of line. 

[stringer bell]

Miranda is an interesting player IMHO. He's 26, not a fast runner and defensively challenged wherever he plays. OTOH, he has had interludes where he is hitting well enough to overcome his deficiencies and then some. His hitting, at the major league level, hasn't been a slugger's profile. He doesn't strike out or walk much and his homer rate is below average. All of that says, he needs to hit for a high average compared to most. 

First base or DH? Frankly, I don't think that it matters much now that France is on the team. Neither will be as good as Santana was last year, but between them, I don't think they will be an embarrassment either. Regarding the OP, I don't think there is a scenario where France is a Twin in 2026, so it kind of is Miranda's chance to claim a regular position, and if he is to have a regular position on the field it would be first base.

Miranda is just one of many players that needs to prove something. Especially given his platoon splits, he could easily become a lineup fixture if he hit like has in the past or he could be a non-tender candidate if he can't sustain above-average production.

[Road trip]

13 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

The thing is Miranda is no longer a league minimum player next year. If he isn't non-tendered, he's instantly more expensive than Ty France was this season. So...yeah, it kind of is his last chance, at least with the Twins. I think that's being a bit hyperbolic, but it's not completely out of line. 

Hm, yes, that's an interesting and forward-thinking way of looking at it.  

If Miranda improves and plays fairly well he becomes expensive, and the Twins likely don't want to spend at 1B/DH.  You can pretty much pick up a Ty France type of 1B every off season for a relatively low sum.

Conversely, if Miranda fails to improve he will spend a lot of time on the bench.

He's almost damned either way, at least for this organization, except in the unlikely case where he breaks out and becomes a star.  Then the Twins are likely to stomach the arbitration increases (maybe).  

[stringer bell]

8 minutes ago, Road trip said:

Hm, yes, that's an interesting and forward-thinking way of looking at it.  

If Miranda improves and plays fairly well he becomes expensive, and the Twins likely don't want to spend at 1B/DH.  You can pretty much pick up a Ty France type of 1B every off season for a relatively low sum.

Conversely, if Miranda fails to improve he will spend a lot of time on the bench.

He's almost damned either way, at least for this organization, except in the unlikely case where he breaks out and becomes a star.  Then the Twins are likely to stomach the arbitration increases (maybe).  

I'm not an expert on arbitration awards and the resultant salaries for those players, but body of work seems and service time seems to be more important than some type of breakout. I don't think Miranda will become overly expensive next year unless he morphs into a star. 

[Road trip]

20 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I'm not an expert on arbitration awards and the resultant salaries for those players, but body of work seems and service time seems to be more important than some type of breakout. I don't think Miranda will become overly expensive next year unless he morphs into a star. 

Crazy expensive, no, I don't think so either.  But with a decent year I would expect him to get a little more than the 2.1 million/year Larnach got, as Miranda has produced a little more WAR, and at least offers the theoretical defensive flexibility to play a sort of adequate 3B.

Would the Twins pay 2.5 million for Miranda if he produces another year similar to last year, and goes into spring 2026 as a projected part time player?  Possibly.  Depends on what else they feel they need to spend on, and how the minor league guys develop.

[LambchoP]

If Miranda continues to hit, which I think he will, he'll get plenty of at bats at DH and as the backup 1b and 3b.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Bodie said:

Nope.

He has minor league options, so his paycheck is secure.

 

Still wondering who you confused with Miranda, as his defense was only "solid" if grading against high school players.  And not Legion ball players, just "regular" H.S.ers...

Miranda will be above average at 1B. He was better than average in 2022 by the only advanced defensive metric anybody should be using in SSS (UZR), and he was far above average last year in a SSSS.

OAA/DRS are ridiculously unstable.

[Doctor Gast]

Miranda, Flourish or Flounder? It all depends how he's managed. If he was managed correctly last year & going into this year we are talking a healthy Miranda & about a Casas type of player. The way they did manage him last year & into ST, he'll flounder at 1B because of lack of opportunity & preparation, His offense will excel while healthy, but later(I wouldn't say flounder, because that denotes lack of ability) even being a great hitter his offense will falter due to playing hurt.

[Bodie]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Miranda will be above average at 1B. He was better than average in 2022 by the only advanced defensive metric anybody should be using in SSS (UZR), and he was far above average last year in a SSSS.

OAA/DRS are ridiculously unstable.

My eyeball test says he looked lost at 3B when he came up (his supposed natural position) and seemed to let every muscle in the field affect whatever confidence he had in his defense.   Unfortunately, he never regained even the level of play that he arrived from StP.  

On a team FULL of "offense first" types (including those with no proof of thier MLB potential being met in the slightest), he has no place.  Well, no substantial place on a winning Twins team anyway.

On a team leading the majors in Ks and bottom of the barrel in D?  He might be the star...

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Bodie said:

My eyeball test says he looked lost at 3B when he came up (his supposed natural position) and seemed to let every muscle in the field affect whatever confidence he had in his defense.   Unfortunately, he never regained even the level of play that he arrived from StP.  

On a team FULL of "offense first" types (including those with no proof of thier MLB potential being met in the slightest), he has no place.  Well, no substantial place on a winning Twins team anyway.

On a team leading the majors in Ks and bottom of the barrel in D?  He might be the star...

Why do you think 3B is the natural position for a guy with a weak arm and limited range? Because the Twins asked him to play there as part of their depth jockey game? Honestly, Miranda would be a better fit at 2B than 3B (same exact athleticism profile as Brooks Lee). The front office chose the all bat, no defense design as what they wanted, but aside from that, what does Miranda's play at 3B have to do with playing him at 1B? Btw, Miranda doesn't strike out much. He's in the top 15% of all hitters with 400+ PA.

Miranda is like a Luis Arraez with a little less hit tool and a little more pop.

[JADBP]

I’d be far more worried about Julien than Miranda but I worry about both.  
 

France is a rental/trade chip (if another collapse).  Lee, Lewis are going nowhere—here to stay—and likely to star someday. Keashall and others are coming soon.   So, if Miranda and Julien don’t start playing at a higher level they will get swapped for a bucket of balls.  

[Mike Sixel]

How will he prove he's good when France starts nearly every game, despite being below average?

[Maybe Next Year]

Pretty hard to prove yourself as a good everyday player when your manager doesn’t play you in the field more than 1 or 2 days a week.  As far as hitting- last year Miranda hit a very respectable .284. Perhaps we need to reevaluate our manager and not Miranda.

[Maybe Next Year]

On 3/14/2025 at 9:12 AM, stringer bell said:

Miranda is an interesting player IMHO. He's 26, not a fast runner and defensively challenged wherever he plays. OTOH, he has had interludes where he is hitting well enough to overcome his deficiencies and then some. His hitting, at the major league level, hasn't been a slugger's profile. He doesn't strike out or walk much and his homer rate is below average. All of that says, he needs to hit for a high average compared to most. 

First base or DH? Frankly, I don't think that it matters much now that France is on the team. Neither will be as good as Santana was last year, but between them, I don't think they will be an embarrassment either. Regarding the OP, I don't think there is a scenario where France is a Twin in 2026, so it kind of is Miranda's chance to claim a regular position, and if he is to have a regular position on the field it would be first base.

Miranda is just one of many players that needs to prove something. Especially given his platoon splits, he could easily become a lineup fixture if he hit like has in the past or he could be a non-tender candidate if he can't sustain above-average production.

Enough of the stupid platooning - if you want to see if a player can be a good everyday player you need to play him at one position more than a couple times a week regardless of the lefty / righty matchups.