Projecting the Twins’ 2025 Opening Day Roster, v. 3.0

[Cody Christie]

There are fewer than three weeks until the Twins head to St. Louis for the season’s first game. So, who is projected to make the team’s Opening Day roster?

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

The Minnesota Twins have some roster battles left to be decided with under three weeks until Opening Day. A handful of injuries, including Justin Topa and Zebby Matthews, popped up last week. At the beginning of February, I attempted to narrow in on the team’s 26-man roster, but there have been some minor changes since that point. Let’s examine the projected Opening Day roster and how the lineup might shake out based on matchups.

Starting Rotation (5): RHP Pablo López, RHP Bailey Ober, RHP Joe Ryan, RHP Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP Chris Paddack

Little has changed with the team’s projected five-man rotation for the season’s start. Many assume that Woods Richardson will get the first crack at the fifth spot in the rotation. However, he is going to feel pressure from other young pitchers at Triple-A, including David Festa, Marco Raya, and Travis Adams. Matthews left his last spring start with an injury, so the Twins will likely be careful with him to start the year, especially with the pitching depth at St. Paul. 
Others on the 40-man roster: RHP David Festa, RHP Zebby Matthews, RHP Travis Adams, LHP Brent Headrick, and RHP Marco Raya.

Bullpen (8): RHP Jhoan Durán, RHP Griffin Jax, RHP Cole Sands, LHP Danny Coulombe, RHP Jorge Alcalá, RHP Brock Stewart, RHP Michael Tonkin, RHP Louis Varland, RHP Justin Topa (IL)
There have been a few significant changes in the bullpen since the beginning of February. Brock Stewart entered camp with reports that he was a little behind in ramping up for the season. He’s on track to make the Opening Day roster, which helps the team’s late-inning depth. Justin Topa left his most recent appearance and was diagnosed with shoulder tightness. He missed nearly all of last season with a knee injury, so he’s been limited to three appearances with the Twins. Rule 5 pick Eiberson Castellano has to stay on the 40-man roster or be offered back to the Phillies organization. There is also a chance the Twins could work on a trade to keep him in the organization. Louis Varland has been making one-inning appearances this spring and seems destined for a bullpen role. 
Others on the 40-man roster: LHP Kody Funderburk, RHP Matt Canterino

Catchers (2): Ryan Jeffers, Christian Vázquez
Minnesota loves to use a two-man catching rotation at the big-league level, so Ryan Jeffers and Christian Vázquez should see the bulk of the playing time. The Twins have also added multiple catching options to the 40-man roster this winter, including former top prospect Diego Cartaya and utility man Mickey Gasper. Cartaya could be the heir apparent to Vázquez, especially since the Twins lack catching depth. Minnesota could start using a three-man catching rotation if any other catchers start producing at Triple-A. 
Others on 40-man roster: Jair Camargo, Diego Cartaya

Infielders (7): Jose Miranda, Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, Edouard Julien, Willi Castro, Ty France
One of the last remaining position battles is what the Twins will do with second base. The Twins have split time between a group of players, and the team is still undecided on the plan to start the year. Brooks Lee could begin the year at Triple-A after struggling during his rookie campaign (64 OPS+) while playing through multiple injuries. Lee is healthy and hitting the ball hard this spring, so the Twins will find a way to keep him on the roster. If he makes the roster, that likely means that Austin Martin starts the year at Triple-A. Mickey Gasper has also been playing regularly this spring, so he could make the roster and push Lee or Julien to St. Paul.   
Others on 40-man roster: Mickey Gasper

Outfielders (4): Trevor Larnach, Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner, Harrison Bader
The Twins decided to go with the defensive upside of Bader versus bringing in a different right-handed bat with more power. He will likely see some time in a corner outfield spot when facing left-handed starters. Larnach and Wallner were two of the team’s best hitters in the second half, and there is hope for each to build off that performance. Castro and Martin will also get time in the outfield during the season, especially when injuries arise. Emmanuel Rodriguez is a high-upside prospect to watch later in the season, but he’s dealing with an ankle injury this spring. 
Others on 40-man roster: Austin Martin, Emmanuel Rodriguez, DaShawn Keirsey Jr.

While this roster seems likely to break camp with the team, there are still questions to answer in spring training. Will the Twins try to hang on to Castellano? Will other injuries impact the roster? With plenty of competition and depth waiting in the wings, the Twins will have decisions to make before Opening Day.

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Are these the 26 players who will come north with the Twins? What would your ideal lineup look like? Leave a comment and join the discussion.

 

 

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[Mark G]

Personally, I would rather have a 5th outfielder than a 7th infielder, but the FO has stopped taking my calls, so I lost my say in the matter.  😏

[Hubie29]

I think Gasper takes Juliens spot.  The Twins like to show off their shiny new toys.

[In My La Z boy]

11 minutes ago, Hubie29 said:

I think Gasper takes Juliens spot.  The Twins like to show off their shiny new toys.

Definitely 👍 Rocco will love having a 3rd catcher and he's hit well so far this spring. 

[rikker49]

Headrick got plucked about a month ago. No longer with the team. Now a Yankee

[arby58]

I've yet to be convinced that Tonkin is worthy of a 40 man roster spot - let alone 26. He hasn't exactly been stellar in his 3 relief appearances so far in spring training. The claim that he is a 'rubber arm' isn't compelling, especially early in the season. Meanwhile, if they really like the looks of Castellano, as a 23 year old he has a lot more promise than a 35 year old reliever who was released by three separate teams last year (including the Twins). Castellano was a starting pitcher in the minors, on the rare occasion when they will need 3 innings out of the bullpen, he should be able to deliver it.

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, Mark G said:

Personally, I would rather have a 5th outfielder than a 7th infielder, but the FO has stopped taking my calls, so I lost my say in the matter.  😏

That would be Castro, the super utility.

[mikelink45]

I am fine with most decisions but from the players listed Gaspar and Martin are the two I am least pleased with.  And I would love to see Keirsey.  

I am also torn on Paddack, but have no real reason if he is doing well.  I just like the younger players. 

[Squirrel]

I question both Tonkin and Sands making the roster. Hope neither do. And I don’t think Julien or Lee are locks, either. One of those two, maybe. Otherwise I don’t think any of the rest will be a surprise. 

[Bodie]

Not saying they'll make the opening day roster, but...

I like the little I've seen of Gasper.  Not sure he's quite MLB-caliber as a catcher, but he is having fun, and few things are more fun for a fan than seeing your team's players having a good time on the field.  Things go right for him and we might be in for a more skilled Austidilo.  Or at least a competent bat-first utility/pinch hitter.  

I might fall in love ❤️ 😍 💖 ❣️  with Kiersay!  EFFORT I haven't seen on a consistent basis in years.  And not the "26th man on the roster" great effort, but Pete Rose "I'm the best on the field AND I'll outwork you too!" effort.  My take is that he is the Twins' 2nd best OF behind Buxton. And the best team we can see on opening day includes him starting. 

 

Another topic... Which is more painful to watch, and zero, zero tie where no one expected to start above AA showed any signs of life (amazing that even the pitching staff looked lifeless while pitching a combined CG SO), or a 9-9 tie where you led 8-1?  Well, at least it is spring, the (Florida) grass is green, and anything is possible! And Rocco is in mid-season form...

[I Never Bet On Sports]

 "Rule 5 pick Eiberson Castellano has to stay on the 40-man roster or be offered back to the Phillies organization. There is also a chance the Twins could work on a trade to keep him in the organization."

I believe he has to be on the 26 man roster or be offered back to the Phillies. He has to remain on the 26 man all season or be offered back actually. I think he makes the opening day roster and Tonkin gets put through waivers.

[stringer bell]

8 minutes ago, arby58 said:

I've yet to be convinced that Tonkin is worthy of a 40 man roster spot - let alone 26. He hasn't exactly been stellar in his 3 relief appearances so far in spring training. The claim that he is a 'rubber arm' isn't compelling, especially early in the season. Meanwhile, if they really like the looks of Castellano, as a 23 year old he has a lot more promise than a 35 year old reliever who was released by three separate teams last year (including the Twins). Castellano was a starting pitcher in the minors, on the rare occasion when they will need 3 innings out of the bullpen, he should be able to deliver it.

It would be complicated to keep a Rule V guy in the BP, but I think it is doable if Castellano is close to ready to be a major league pitcher. I seriously doubt that Michael Tonkin will spend all year on the Twins' roster. I understand that he is a guy that they can "abuse" without worrying that they've ruined his career, but he'll never be more than that IMHO.

The last two spots on the position player side would include looks at Ford, Keirsey and Martin who would be out in the semifinal round, The three finalists for two positions look to be Lee, Julien and Gasper. It seems that Lee might have a leg up in claiming second base and could get a lot of starts since he is a switch hitter. That would leave the final position down to Gasper and Julien. Julien has produced at the major league level in 2023 and hits lefty--he's been used at both first and second base. Gasper is older, has no major league success, but is a switch hitter who can cover first, second and catch. I'd give the edge to Julien today, but Gasper has done what he can to give himself a chance to make the Opening Day roster. 

[arby58]

46 minutes ago, rikker49 said:

Headrick got plucked about a month ago. No longer with the team. Now a Yankee

So far, the Yankees are giving Headrick a look. 3 appearances, 5 2/3 innings. He's struck out 10 batters (wow) but also walked 3. As a result, his WHIP is nothing to write home about (1.59). Only 2 earned runs for a 3.18 ERA. It will be interesting to see how he performs the rest of the spring. I'd probably also rather have him with the Twins than Tonkin.

[arby58]

4 minutes ago, I Never Bet On Sports said:

 "Rule 5 pick Eiberson Castellano has to stay on the 40-man roster or be offered back to the Phillies organization. There is also a chance the Twins could work on a trade to keep him in the organization."

I believe he has to be on the 26 man roster or be offered back to the Phillies. He has to remain on the 26 man all season or be offered back actually. I think he makes the opening day roster and Tonkin gets put through waivers.

He can be put on the injured list.

[arby58]

11 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

I question both Tonkin and Sands making the roster. Hope neither do. And I don’t think Julien or Lee are locks, either. One of those two, maybe. Otherwise I don’t think any of the rest will be a surprise. 

Sands was one of their better relief pitchers last year, particularly in the second half. There is no comparison between Tonkin and Sands.

[Squirrel]

Just now, arby58 said:

Sands was one of their better relief pitchers last year, particularly in the second half. There is no comparison between Tonkin and Sands.

This spring neither has been that great. I could see Sands, maybe, but I think Tonkin is done

[PatPfund]

All is subject to change since the most important 3 weeks of ST lie ahead, but...

Topa is injured, and has little time to pitch his way onto the roster. Plus, he has options, so I think there is nearly a zero chance he makes the 26-man roster; his trip north starts in St Paul (and the MiLB IL). Maybe it was a typo, but Castellano has to remain on the 26-man, not 40-man all season. The kid has flashed some electric stuff, so unless he melts down I fully expect him to make the roster.

Signing Bader (and not trading Castro) pretty much consigned Martin and Keirsey to St Paul, but the infield is shaping up to be the best of battles. Lee, Julien, Gasper, Miranda, and France have all shown signs of being (badly needed) offensive forces; if that continues, I'd expect the team to make decisions in a way that preserves player capital to ensure against injury or feed a trade, I wouldn't be surprised to see Julien in St Paul to work on his D, but mostly agree with the OP's IF shakeout.

[PatPfund]

9 minutes ago, arby58 said:

He can be put on the injured list.

You can't just hide Rule 5's on the IL. The player has to be on the active 26-man for at least 90 days to satisfy requirements. Any days short of 90 extend into the next season until the requirement is met.

[arby58]

1 minute ago, PatPfund said:

You can't just hide Rule 5's on the IL. The player has to be on the active 26-man for at least 90 days to satisfy requirements. Any days short of 90 extend into the next season until the requirement is met.

I understand that, but they can be placed on IL - they do not have to stay on the 26 man roster the entire season.

[Doctor Gast]

He who should & who will be are 2 different things. Julien should be sent to AAA to learn 1B not ST. Our best option on 1B is Miranda who has the potential to be our best 1Bman. Baldelli, who preached 1B defense, 1B defense. Has now wants 1B hack France to be our primary 1Bman. They are bound & determined to have France & Julien much too often on the right side, that'll prove to be disastrous.  We have Lewis, Lee & Castro at 3B we don't need Miranda at 3B, make him our primary 1B & some DH. But knowing Baldelli & how much they played this spring, Miranda is behind France, Gasper, & Julien. If Miranda gets hurt again while playing 3B (hope he doesn't) his production goes down again. Fans don't look at the stats & say what a bum he is. Don't blame Miranda, blame management. If the Twins don't invest in Miranda at 1B, Twins will never improve at 1B.

[BigHurt35]

Zebby has to make the rotation.  He is by far the 4th best starting option.  His fastball is up 3 MPH this spring and has been great.  He rolled his ankle he will be fine its not like he is having arm issues.  But knowing the Twins Zebby will be 7-0 with an ERA under 2 in AAA in 2 months while Richardson and Paddack lead the league in WHIP and ERA getting knocked out in the first 3 innings every other start.  

[I Never Bet On Sports]

18 minutes ago, arby58 said:

He can be put on the injured list.

Agreed, he would, then ,have to actually be injured.

I hope they keep him and then work out a trade after opening day to keep him with the ability to send him down to AAA. Othwerwise, use him as a piggy back for whoever you think will average the fewest innings per start - either Paddack or Woods Richardson.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

51 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

I question both Tonkin and Sands making the roster. Hope neither do. And I don’t think Julien or Lee are locks, either. One of those two, maybe. Otherwise I don’t think any of the rest will be a surprise. 

Sands?

Last year he was at least their third or fourth best reliever.

[Drtwins]

This projection seems accurate at this point. With Zebby injured (he had been pitching great) and Festa struggling (Paddack is as well albeit in only a single start), the starting five appear to be set. The bullpen is likely down to nine due to Topa's injury. Castellano will likely be the odd man out for now; his potential is there (7k in 4-2/3in), but he has had some struggles this spring (1.71 whip, 5BB). It's hard to imagine the Twins keeping him on the 26-man roster for the entire season. However, with about three weeks left in spring training, one more injury to a reliever could make him the eighth man. I do agree some of the veterans, Paddack and Tonkin, have struggled as much as the young guys but with the small sample size so far in spring they likely get the benefit of the doubt as they have shown to be adequate pitchers at the MLB level.

On the position player side, Lee is coming on strong and is likely the best defensive player on the bubble, making him nearly a lock. IMO Julien and Gasper are competing for the final bench spot. Although I would love to see Keirsey sneak on as the 13th man, allowing Wallner and Larnach to DH, Bader to play left, and still have Keirsey available as an outfield replacement off the bench. One of Castro or Lee could start at second base, with the other serving as a super utility player in the infield.

[stringer bell]

21 minutes ago, BigHurt35 said:

Zebby has to make the rotation.  He is by far the 4th best starting option.  His fastball is up 3 MPH this spring and has been great.  He rolled his ankle he will be fine its not like he is having arm issues.  But knowing the Twins Zebby will be 7-0 with an ERA under 2 in AAA in 2 months while Richardson and Paddack lead the league in WHIP and ERA getting knocked out in the first 3 innings every other start.  

I think you're reading waaaaay too much into a couple of spring outings for Matthews (and the injury is apparently his hip). I think he has a nice upside, but they aren't going to send Woods Richardson to St. Paul after a successful nearly complete season in the majors, while Zebby struggled. Also remember Sim is actually younger than Zebby.

As far as Paddack goes, yeah he never seems to be rested, built up and healthy. This will be his last chance with the Twins. Is his upside gone after two TJ surgeries? I think the Twins will find out, which means he'll be given a longer leash than most of us want to see.

[stringer bell]

Sands is a lock after his good work last year. I had my misgivings about him, but his numbers were very good to outstanding in 2024. 

[Greglw3]

1 hour ago, Squirrel said:

That would be Castro, the super utility.

Better would be Keirsey, they need his defense, speed dimension and if he hits, it’s a big win. He reminds me of their approach with Lamonte Wade, Jr. He deserves a real shot in MLB, in my opinion.

[Greglw3]

32 minutes ago, Drtwins said:

This projection seems accurate at this point. With Zebby injured (he had been pitching great) and Festa struggling (Paddack is as well albeit in only a single start), the starting five appear to be set. The bullpen is likely down to nine due to Topa's injury. Castellano will likely be the odd man out for now; his potential is there (7k in 4-2/3in), but he has had some struggles this spring (1.71 whip, 5BB). It's hard to imagine the Twins keeping him on the 26-man roster for the entire season. However, with about three weeks left in spring training, one more injury to a reliever could make him the eighth man. I do agree some of the veterans, Paddack and Tonkin, have struggled as much as the young guys but with the small sample size so far in spring they likely get the benefit of the doubt as they have shown to be adequate pitchers at the MLB level.

On the position player side, Lee is coming on strong and is likely the best defensive player on the bubble, making him nearly a lock. IMO Julien and Gasper are competing for the final bench spot. Although I would love to see Keirsey sneak on as the 13th man, allowing Wallner and Larnach to DH, Bader to play left, and still have Keirsey available as an outfield replacement off the bench. One of Castro or Lee could start at second base, with the other serving as a super utility player in the infield.

I'm with you all the way on Keirsey! It’s time!

[Greglw3]

36 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Sands?

Last year he was at least their third or fourth best reliever.

Sands is a definite keeper, to my surprise last season. Tonkin, I’m not quite sure why they value him so much but maybe he’ll help.

[Guest]

• Julien hasn't shown he's solved his hitting approach at the plate.  Gasper, an equally patient hitter, does what Julien thus far doesn't.  Julien starts in St. Paul.  I'd keep Martin over Gasper but it's close.
• They'll figure out a way to keep Castellano.  Topa starts on the IL, and Stewart likely will, too.