Projecting the Twins’ 2025 Opening Day Roster, v. 3.0

[Fatbat]

Canterino will be on 60 day il soon enough. Topa probably right beside him. Sands is a lock if healthy. Tonkin or a late signed dfa FA from another team will be on the 26 man just based on attrition. Castellano is a lock. Varland is a lock. Both could get spot starts. 
Is it SWR or Festa in the rotation? When will Paddack be moved to the pen? 
 

[Fatbat]

Position players, the only decision is one of Julien/Martin/Kiersey. Id go with Kiersey. 

[saviking]

2 hours ago, Hubie29 said:

I think Gasper takes Juliens spot.  The Twins like to show off their shiny new toys.

i think it's more likely Austin will take Juliens spot to begin with. We more than have second base covered.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

22 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

Tonkin, I’m not quite sure why they value him so much but maybe he’ll help.

My guess is hoarding depth, bullpen in general is highly volatile and Topa and Stewart are both likely to be injured but too good to walk away from (especially Stewart). Tonkin will likely be miles better than Jay Jackson and Scott Blewett

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, Squirrel said:

I question both Tonkin and Sands making the roster. Hope neither do. And I don’t think Julien or Lee are locks, either. One of those two, maybe. Otherwise I don’t think any of the rest will be a surprise. 

Sands - 2nd or 3rd best reliever in ‘24….right?

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Sands?

Last year he was at least their third or fourth best reliever.

I’m just not convinced. I was always holding my breath with him. And his spring hasn’t been great but it’s spring. And with others out and given his season last year, they take him north. But I’m still not convinced he’s not more than AAAA depth

[Ruven]

2 hours ago, arby58 said:

Sands was one of their better relief pitchers last year, particularly in the second half. There is no comparison between Tonkin and Sands.

Tonkin is the weakest member of that prospective bullpen and he has no upside. IMHO if the Rule 5 guy is relegated to mop up and other low leverage outings until he proves himself, that would be preferable over Tonkin. 

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, Greglw3 said:

Better would be Keirsey, they need his defense, speed dimension and if he hits, it’s a big win. He reminds me of their approach with Lamonte Wade, Jr. He deserves a real shot in MLB, in my opinion.

When you are talking about the 26th man, I think you want versatility. Plus Castro is a switch hitter. Now, if you want to add Kiersey instead of Julien, leaving Castro at 2nd, I’m not opposed.

[arby58]

2 hours ago, Squirrel said:

This spring neither has been that great. I could see Sands, maybe, but I think Tonkin is done

Cole Sands has pitched in TWO spring training games, 1 2/3rds innings, given up 3 runs.

Last year, in the regular season, he appeared in 62 games, 71 1/3 innings pitched, 85 Ks, 3.28 ERA and a WHIP of 0.995. 

I would bet the house that Sands is on the 26 man roster and is pitching in medium to high leverage situations.

[arby58]

52 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

I’m just not convinced. I was always holding my breath with him. And his spring hasn’t been great but it’s spring. And with others out and given his season last year, they take him north. But I’m still not convinced he’s not more than AAAA depth

I don't know what more he needs to prove. It's not like he only did it for a month last year - 62 appearances and 71 1/3 innings pitched with 85Ks and a WHIP under 1.000 - those are not 'hold your breath' numbers.

[arby58]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

Is it SWR or Festa in the rotation?

SWR proved it last year and put up a 2.0 WAR. His ERA was well under 4.00 until a series of 5 bad starts in September to end his year.

Festa showed flashes, but he still ended up with an ERA close to 5.00 and a WAR of 0.4. He also had a series of short starts at the end of last year - and combined between AAA and MLB threw 124 2/3 innings, while SWR combined threw 147. I'd suggest SWR is more tested and more likely to be able to stretch out and get to something approaching Ober's 178 2/3 innings pitched from last year.

[Greglw3]

25 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

When you are talking about the 26th man, I think you want versatility. Plus Castro is a switch hitter. Now, if you want to add Kiersey instead of Julien, leaving Castro at 2nd, I’m not opposed.

No, definitely wasn’t suggesting ahead of Castro, and it’s a tough fit, but I’d sure try to make it work. Julien would be a possibility although I like him a lot, but all their prospects can’t be what I thought they were gonna be.

[arby58]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

My guess is hoarding depth, bullpen in general is highly volatile and Topa and Stewart are both likely to be injured but too good to walk away from (especially Stewart). Tonkin will likely be miles better than Jay Jackson and Scott Blewett

Looking at their stats from last year, it's hard to reach the conclusion that Tonkin will 'likely be miles better' than Scott Blewett. Granted, Blewett only threw 20 1/3 innings, but 1.77 ERA and 1.230 WHIP that turned into a WAR of 0.8 isn't bad. Tonkin, between his appearances for 3 MLB teams, was -0.1 WAR, 3.63 ERA and a WHIP OF 1.261. Granted, he did it over 79 1/3 innings, but I'm missing the 'miles better' statistics.

[arby58]

2 hours ago, BigHurt35 said:

Zebby has to make the rotation.  He is by far the 4th best starting option.  His fastball is up 3 MPH this spring and has been great.  He rolled his ankle he will be fine its not like he is having arm issues.  But knowing the Twins Zebby will be 7-0 with an ERA under 2 in AAA in 2 months while Richardson and Paddack lead the league in WHIP and ERA getting knocked out in the first 3 innings every other start.  

The hyperbole related to SWR is completely unfair. Last year, in 28 starts, he was 'knocked out in the first 3 innings' exactly one time, and that was his last start of the season. Before September, these were the numbers of innings pitched in the games he started for the Twins: 6, 5, 3.2, 6, 4.1, 5.1, 4.2, 5, 4.1, 6.1, 4, 6, 5.1, 5.2, 6, 4.1, 6, 3.1, 4, 7, 5, 5, 4.2.

Further, his WHIP last year was 1.294; the MLB average for starting pitchers was 1.270 - hardly something that would 'lead the league in WHIP.' 

[twinsfansd]

3 hours ago, I Never Bet On Sports said:

 "Rule 5 pick Eiberson Castellano has to stay on the 40-man roster or be offered back to the Phillies organization. There is also a chance the Twins could work on a trade to keep him in the organization."

I believe he has to be on the 26 man roster or be offered back to the Phillies. He has to remain on the 26 man all season or be offered back actually. I think he makes the opening day roster and Tonkin gets put through waivers.

A Rule 5 player must first be run through waiver before they would be able to work out a trade with the original club, the Phillies. So the chances of a player like Castellanos clearing waivers are probably slim. So the Twins will most likely either have to keep him on the roster, or let him go.

[dxpavelka]

I always love all the talk about the Opening Day lineup and 26 man roster.  And then I remember that probably a dozen and a half (probably a light projection) other guys will make appearances on said 26 man roster.  The REAL interesting article to me would be one that projects the names who DON'T start the season on even the 40 man who end up playing at the big league level. 

[arby58]

3 hours ago, BigHurt35 said:

Zebby has to make the rotation.  He is by far the 4th best starting option.  His fastball is up 3 MPH this spring and has been great.  

Zebby was rushed to the Twins last season because they really didn't have any other choice, but I'd put up a bit of a caution flag - while accepting that he has pitched well in his three appearances in spring training (because...it's spring training).

Last year he started in A+ where he was actually almost a year older than average for the league, and he performed well (4 starts, 22 2/3 innings pitched, 1.59 ERA and 0.750 WHIP). He was promoted to AA, where he was slightly younger than the average player (by 0.3 years), and performed nearly as well. The Twins then aggressively advanced him to AAA, where he was 3 years younger than average, and his starts didn't go nearly as well (4 starts, 19 innings, 5.68 ERA and 1.316 WHIP). 

Still, that earned him his ticket to 'the Big Show' and the results weren't impressive. 9 starts, 37.2 innings, 1-4 record, 6.69 ERA and 1.646 WHIP. In his last four starts he pitched 3 1/3, 4 2/3, 4 2/3, and 3 innings. It may be he was running out of gas - between the minors and the Twins, he had 134 2/3 innings pitched. 

It's great that his fastball MPH is up, but the results from last year suggest he needs more starts at AAA before one can be confident he is ready for the MLB games that count season.

[thelanges5]

⚾️ gods helping sort out the roster crunch. No such thing as too much pitching depth.!

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

Looking at their stats from last year, it's hard to reach the conclusion that Tonkin will 'likely be miles better' than Scott Blewett. Granted, Blewett only threw 20 1/3 innings, but 1.77 ERA and 1.230 WHIP that turned into a WAR of 0.8 isn't bad. Tonkin, between his appearances for 3 MLB teams, was -0.1 WAR, 3.63 ERA and a WHIP OF 1.261. Granted, he did it over 79 1/3 innings, but I'm missing the 'miles better' statistics.

That’s fair, I think the Twins caught lightning in a bottle with Blewett, his previous stints in the bigs were very small sample but 2 WHIP, and even in the Chinese league and in the minors he averages less than a strikeout per inning. I think he passed through waivers unclaimed and is still in the Twins system. We’ll likely see Blewett pitch for the Twins at some point.

 

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

Cole Sands has pitched in TWO spring training games, 1 2/3rds innings, given up 3 runs.

Last year, in the regular season, he appeared in 62 games, 71 1/3 innings pitched, 85 Ks, 3.28 ERA and a WHIP of 0.995. 

I would bet the house that Sands is on the 26 man roster and is pitching in medium to high leverage situations.

Sands: WHIP, excellent - ERA, very good & 10.7 K’s/9 ……….pitched in numerous situations from 5th innings through 8th inning ……maybe has 2 bad outings all year………I too, don’t know what else he may need to do to get respect?

[JD-TWINS]

1 minute ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

That’s fair, I think the Twins caught lightning in a bottle with Blewett, his previous stints in the bigs were very small sample but 2 WHIP, and even in the Chinese league and in the minors he averages less than a strikeout per inning. I think he passed through waivers unclaimed and is still in the Twins system. We’ll likely see Blewett pitch for the Twins at some point.

 

When Morneau states out loud during a broadcast, “……..how did we get this guy?…….he looks great…..” that’s validation enough for me on Blewett. I thought he would have Tonkin’s spot in ‘25 before they signed Tonkin in the off season. Surprised he’s still in the system and not in the Opening Day mix for the PEN

[I Never Bet On Sports]

1 hour ago, twinsfansd said:

A Rule 5 player must first be run through waiver before they would be able to work out a trade with the original club, the Phillies. So the chances of a player like Castellanos clearing waivers are probably slim. So the Twins will most likely either have to keep him on the roster, or let him go.

I attached the rules below from MLB. A Rule 5 player dropped from the 26 man does go through waivers (claiming team still bound by Rule 5) before being offered back to the original team. However, at any time the Twins and Phillies can work out a trade without putting him through waivers.

MLB.com Rule 5:

"Not every club will make a selection, but those that do pick a player must pay $100,000 to the club from which said player was selected. Rule 5 Draft picks are assigned directly to the drafting club's 26-man roster and must be placed on outright waivers in order to be removed from the 26-man roster in the subsequent season. Should the player clear waivers, he must be offered back to his previous team for $50,000 and can be outrighted to the Minors only if his original club does not wish to reacquire him. A Rule 5 Draft pick can be placed on the Major League injured list, but he must be active for a minimum of 90 days to avoid being subject to the aforementioned roster restrictions in the next campaign.

Clubs may trade a player selected in the Rule 5 Draft, but the same restrictions apply to the player's new organization. However, a club may also work out a trade with the Rule 5 pick's original club to acquire his full rights, thereby allowing him to be optioned to the Minors under traditional circumstances."

[Nashvilletwin]

Gasper, Bader and France all having strong springs.   Meanwhile, the agents for Lee, Miranda, Julien, and Martin have Falvey on speed dial begging to be traded.  

[Danchat]

Looks like Tonkin could be starting on the IL, so there is a path to keep Castellano to start with. I could see Blewett cracking the roster.

I don't know about Miranda, Lee, and Julien all being on the roster with France solidified as the starting 1B. I would send Lee to AAA to get consistent PAs every day in this scenario.

[Western SD Fan]

Just saw a report that Gerrit Cole has a right elbow issue and may miss time.  Maybe a good time to see if the Yankees are willing to trade for Paddack. 

[ashbury]

5 hours ago, Squirrel said:

I’m just not convinced. I was always holding my breath with him. And his spring hasn’t been great but it’s spring. And with others out and given his season last year, they take him north. But I’m still not convinced he’s not more than AAAA depth

I was slow to board the Griffin Jax Train, so I'm not making that same mistake with Sands who had a good season.  Sands is da bomb, I'm here to tell ya!

[stringer bell]

I have Lee leading the way at second base right now. He's hitting over .300 in SSS spring PAs. I don't think he has clinched a spot on the plane to St. Louis yet, but he's played well and certainly better than Edouard Julien. To me, the battle for the last position player would be between Julien and Gasper. They don't need a CF (Keirsey) with Bader around and with Miranda, Larnach, and Julien/Gasper all in the mix, Mike Ford isn't a good fit either. Austin Martin would be the fifth or sixth OF depending on how Castro is categorized. 

[DocBauer]

We all make mistakes, but the journalism/English/writer major in me just has to do a brief reprimand as to Headrick being listed as a depth piece when he's been gone for a couple weeks already. I despise being "that guy", but that's a major fopaux.

The OF 4 is set with Larnach, Buxton, Wallner, and Bader.

Catcher is set, but Camargo is still #3, deservedly so at this point, despite some hopeful love of Cartaya being able to hit again. 

Lewis, Correa, Miranda, France, and Castro...who's also part of the OF equation...are all set. 

That's 2 spots open.

Lee is the best option at 2B, and he's looked good so far. A hard hit fly ball single that might have been a double in a lot of parks, and a HR against the Yankees a couple days ago would seem to indicate he's getting locked in. Still a few weeks to go, but he's the best 2B option, and the one the Twins want and need to take control of the position.

That leaves 1 spot TBD.

IF Lee does lock up 2B, the choices left are Julien, Martin, and Gasper.

Ideally, Julien's bat is BACK, and he wins the final spot. The Twins are short of LH bats at the moment, and Julien fixes that issue as a 2B/1B/DH with strong offensive production. Gasper is a weird roster addition as he's a "maybe" 2B, the THIRD 1B, and only an emergency catcher. But he's also a unique hitter who switch hits, makes contact, and seems to have a good eye leading to a solid OB%. Martin still has to prove he can hit ML pitching and play adequate defense anywhere, and provide real value other than base running.

Look, I'm a fan of Keirsey as well. I like his defense, speed, and pop, but I just don't see him being the 13th man and 5th OF to start the season.

The rotation is set. Paddack maintaining 93-95 mph velocity is key. If he gets his change back, he's better than most #4 starters in MLB. Festa and Matthews are the top depth options, and both will be part of the 2025 season and beyond.

It would be nice to have Topa and Tonkin as middle relief options. Their opening day status is now in doubt. That opens up a spot for Varland, who is better than both. It also opens up a roster spot to keep rule 5 Castellano as the possible 8th man unless a trade with the Phillies can happen to give the Twins options. His pure stuff is very good. Despite never throwing above AA, MAYBE he can be a viable #8 man in the pen in limited innings.

I predict Julien gets his bat figured out and Gasper and Martin go to AAA. But Gasper might surprise. But Martin and Keirsey go to St Paul to begin the season.

[RpR]

10 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

I predict Julien gets his bat figured out and Gasper and Martin go to AAA. But Gasper might surprise. But Martin and Keirsey go to St Paul to begin the season.

Chances of Vikings signing Darnold are greater.