What Would an Eiberson Castellano Trade With the Philadelphia Phillies Look Like?

[Cody Schoenmann]

The Rule 5 Draft pick has impressed early in spring training. However, the Twins bullpen is filled with high-leverage talent and depth. Castellano could be the odd pitcher out. That said, it doesn't mean he must be returned to the Philadelphia Phillies. What would it take to acquire the 23-year-old's services unconditionally?

Rule 5 Draft selection Eiberson Castellano has impressed early this spring training. Showcasing a four-seam fastball hovering around 96-97 MPH with a plus curveball and serviceable changeup, the 23-year-old right-handed hurler has netted a 33.3% strikeout rate and a .100 opponent batting average over just three innings pitched. His 6.00 ERA, 7.37 FIP, and modest four-to-two strikeout-to-walk ratio cause some alarm. That said, his plus stuff and 3.59 xFIP suggest he is demonstrating flashes of the potential that prompted Twins decision-makers to take a flier on the relatively unknown arm.

Veterans Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, Cole Sands, Brock Stewart, Danny Coulombe, and Michael Tonkin are locked into bullpen roles as the season nears. Louis Varland has impressed early in camp while pitching in one-inning bursts, indicating the fire-throwing righty has the inside track for the seventh spot in the bullpen. That being the case, Castellano is seemingly competing with Justin Topa, Jorge Alcalá, and Kody Funderburk for the eighth and final role in the unit.

Nevertheless, spring training is still in its infancy. Injuries or significant performance concerns could arise over the three weeks, making today's speculation a moot point. For now, though, Castellano being returned to Philadelphia to award Topa, Alcalá, or Funderburk the final bullpen spot is a reasonable outcome. That being the case, Twins decision-makers could attempt to manufacture a trade with the Phillies front office to avoid losing the promising righty altogether. While post-Rule 5 Draft trades are rare, they aren't entirely unchartered waters, meaning the two clubs could come to a deal before the season begins. So, what could it look like? Let's take a look at the most recent examples.

Clubs immediately trading players selected in the Rule 5 Draft to different organizations is a common occurrence. However, these transactions will be omitted, as they don't accurately represent what would occur between Minnesota and Philadelphia. With this stipulation in place, we must travel back to 2019, where three trades occurred between the drafting team and the prospect's original organization. The first instance involves the Kansas City Royals and Tampa Bay Rays. Kansas City selected pitcher Stephen Woods Jr. with the fourth pick in the 2019 Rule 5 Draft. The Royals elected to return Woods Jr. to Tampa Bay. However, the two organizations quickly worked out a trade to send the right-handed reliever back to the City of Fountains.

In return, the Royals sent outfield prospect Michael Gigliotti (ranked 13th on MLB Pipeline) to Tampa Bay. Interestingly, Woods Jr. was absent from the MLB Pipeline's Rays' Top 30 prospect list. Neither player appeared in a major league baseball game. However, this swap sets a precedent for what a player-for-player swap might look like for Minnesota and Philadelphia. Castellano is Minnesota ranked 16th on MLB Pipeline's Twins Top 30 Prospects list. Here are the four prospects positioned closest to Castellano on MLB Pipeline's list:

• 14th - Infield prospect Billy Amick
• 15th- Infield prospect Rayne Doncon
• 17th - Catcher/outfield prospect Ricardo Olivar
• 18th - Outfield prospect Gabriel Gonzalez

Like every top prospect ranking list, MLB Pipeline is flawed. Nevertheless, it accurately represents which players could be involved in a prospect-for-prospect swap. Doncon, Olivar, or Gonzalez are reasonable candidates to be sent back to Philadelphia. Pitching prospects Travis Adams, Christian MacLeod, and Jose Olivares are viable candidates, too, with CJ Culpepper being the upper echelon of what the organization should be comfortable parting ways with. Nevertheless, a prospect-for-prospect swap is an unlikely outcome, evidenced by the other two post-Rule 5 trades that occurred in 2019.

Later in the 2019 Rule 5 Draft, the Cincinnati Reds poached outfield prospect Mark Payton from the Oakland Athletics. Cincinnati returned Payton to Oakland. Like Kansas City and Oakland, though, the two clubs quickly manufactured a deal, sending Payton back to Cincinnati for cash considerations or a player to be named later. Oakland eventually elected cash considerations. Two picks later, the Chicago Cubs grasped right-handed pitching prospect Trevor Megill from the clutches (or lack thereof) of the San Diego Padres. Chicago returned Megill to San Diego. However, San Diego also sent him back in exchange for cash considerations or a player to be named later. San Diego, too, chose cash considerations. Given what occurred in 2019, the Twins could reasonably acquire Castellano for cash considerations or a player to be named later. Whether Philadelphia would elect cash considerations or the player to be named later is uncertain. However, the prospects made available to Philadelphia would undoubtedly possess less present-day value than Castellano.

Acquiring Castellano from Philadelphia would be a wise decision for Minnesota as they could continue to develop him as a starting pitching prospect rather than wedging him into the eighth-reliever spot for an entire season with the risk of losing him. Castellano had yet to pitch past Double-A in the Phillies system. Yet, he was named the organization's minor league Pitcher of the Year after generating a 3.99 ERA, 3.40 FIP, and a 136-to-29 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 103 2/3 innings pitched between High-A and Double-A last season. Allowing Castellano to continue to develop as a starter in the minors under the Twins superb pitching development program would be a wise move for both parties, as the young righty could quickly join Marco Raya, Andrew Morris, and Cory Lewis as the organization's most intriguing starting pitching prospects in the high minors.

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[thelanges5]

The twins reportedly had tried to trade for him once already. Phillies called their bluff and we took him in the rule five draft.

Be nice to know what we offered then because now that they know we want him (again). The price has probably gone up.

[Guest]

Maybe Philly would take Eddie Julien for Castellano....

[jorgenswest]

Castellano had more value to the Phillies before he was selected in rule 5. At that point he did not need a 40 man roster spot. Contending teams need to devote the majority of those spots to players they assess can help the team this year.

If the Twins return Castellano to the Phillies, would the Phillies would need to give him a 40 man spot?

If that is the case it may lower his value to them. A return of a player that has a few years before they need to be put on the 40 even if they are ranked a tier lower than Castellano may be sufficient. 

[USAFChief]

16 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Castellano had more value to the Phillies before he was selected in rule 5. At that point he did not need a 40 man roster spot. Contending teams need to devote the majority of those spots to players they assess can help the team this year.

If the Twins return Castellano to the Phillies, would the Phillies would need to give him a 40 man spot?

If that is the case it may lower his value to them. A return of a player that has a few years before they need to be put on the 40 even if they are ranked a tier lower than Castellano may be sufficient. 

 Castellano first needs to clear waivers before being returned to Philly. Any claiming team would need to put him on the 40 man and meet the season long rule 5 requirements to keep him, same as the Twins would. 

If he clears waivers, Philly can get him back for $50k. He does not need to be placed on the 40 man. Hes then in the same position as other minor leaguers not on a 40 man. 

[Fatbat]

A trade seems to be logical but why not throw him into the bullpen to see if he rises to the occasion and survives in MLB. We wont know until he is tested in the regular season! 

[jkcarew]

“Allowing Castellano to continue to develop as a starter in the minors under the Twins' superb pitching development program…”

Lot of drinking of the kool-aide going on…or the bar is just extremely low. Are we evaluating based on how many mid round guys have success at the AA and AAA level? Is that the new standard, or should we evaluate based on actual success at the only level that matters?

For that, we have one starter (Ober)…two if you say that SWR was developed here and that he’s ‘arrived’ as a valuable starter. Relievers: Jax and Alcala? Certainly not Matthews, Varland, or anyone else yet.

That’s not “superb”. Could it get better soon? Yep. There’s no guarantee, and the quantifiable results at the major league level are still very average so far.

With Castellono, don’t over think it. If you think he’s more talented  than the guys at the bottom of the pen, simply keep him and use him. Don’t fall in love with average-ish talent guys that you’ve talked yourself into believing are about to have a career year.

Besides…you’re not the Dodgers or the Yankees. You NEED to pull a Francisco Liriano (or a Johan Santana) out of the hat once in a while to make a real run. Can always make him a starter later, as well.

And, if they don’t think the upside is there, it’s moot.

 

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

 Castellano first needs to clear waivers before being returned to Philly. Any claiming team would need to put him on the 40 man and meet the season long rule 5 requirements to keep him, same as the Twins would. 

If he clears waivers, Philly can get him back for $50k. He does not need to be placed on the 40 man. He is then in the same position as other minor leaguers not on a 40 man. 

Thanks.

So waivers happens before a trade?

[ashbury]

27 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Thanks.

So waivers happens before a trade?

No.

Waivers happen when you want to remove someone from the 40-man and it's not a trade.  

DFA occurs first (usually) or simultaneously in all the cases.

Even if you're releasing a guy you have to put him on waivers first in case some bottom-feeder team wants to jump the gun and claim him rather than let him pick who he wants to sign with.

[SaberNerd]

3 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

The twins reportedly had tried to trade for him once already. Phillies called their bluff and we took him in the rule five draft.

Be nice to know what we offered then because now that they know we want him (again). The price has probably gone up.

This seems completely backwards. The Phillies thought they were calling our bluff that we would take him, but we weren't bluffing.

[Jocko87]

They aren’t getting a top 20 prospect for him.  Philly would have jumped on something like that months ago.

Tonkin straight up? It can be a useful disposable piece for Philly while freeing up options in the Twins pen.  

[thelanges5]

May not even have to trade for him depending on the injuries to Tonkin and Topa. Maybe just kicking the can down the road but he’ll get some MLB exposure. 

Duran, Jax, Sands, Coulombe, Stewart, Varland, Alcalá, Castellano. 
 

[jorgenswest]

46 minutes ago, ashbury said:

No.

Waivers happen when you want to remove someone from the 40-man and it's not a trade.  

DFA occurs first (usually) or simultaneously in all the cases.

Even if you're releasing a guy you have to put him on waivers first in case some bottom-feeder team wants to jump the gun and claim him rather than let him pick who he wants to sign with.

In this case would the Twins DFA Castellano and then assuming he passes through waivers the Phillies can reclaim him outside of their 40? At that point he is their property again and they could trade him to the Twins.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

In this case would the Twins DFA Castellano and then assuming he passes through waivers the Phillies can reclaim him outside of their 40? At that point he is their property again and they could trade him to the Twins.

If the Twins and Phils were in agreement on the framework of a trade, I don't think they would need to go through this process.  Rule-5 allows the trade to take place without giving any other teams a shot at the player. And then the Twins could option the player to the minors, which would presumably be the motivation for giving the Phillies anything in trade.

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/rule-5-draft

[Doc Munson]

Why is Brock Stewart a lock? he had 1 good season in 2023, and then another back in 2017. he was average at best last year. Castellano should be ahead o fhim.

Why is Tonkin a lock? he was pretty good last year, but I would again take Castellano over him.

Coulombe I can see. he is/was good and a lefty.

 

Swap out Tonkin and Stewart with Castellano and Alcala and you got yourself a bullpen

[Matthew Trueblood]

4 hours ago, ashbury said:

If the Twins and Phils were in agreement on the framework of a trade, I don't think they would need to go through this process.  Rule-5 allows the trade to take place without giving any other teams a shot at the player. And then the Twins could option the player to the minors, which would presumably be the motivation for giving the Phillies anything in trade.

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/rule-5-draft

IMPORTANT: No, this isn't true. I've had a hard time running down whether it's the result of a change to the process or whether it's always been this way and some combination of gentlemen's agreements or circumstances allowed previous deals to happen, but I've confirmed this with a high-ranking baseball official. The player DOES have to pass through waivers and (technically) first be returned to the original team before a trade to remove their Rule 5 restrictions can be executed. No workaround. The ONLY way for Rule 5 restrictions to lift is if the player clears waivers.

[madtowntwin]

In term of timing - The Phillies are in Fort Myers today while the Twins visit Clearwater on 3/21. Mr. Dombrowski should be around....

[chpettit19]

I don't think cash is going to be enough to get him. If all Philly was asking was some cash considerations the Twins would've (should've?) just done that deal before the Rule 5 when they tried to trade for him. I think the prospects listed are the more likely ask from Philly. I'd guess the deal wasn't completed before because the Phillies asked for a "real" prospect in return and the Twins said no. I don't know why that price would've gone down now that the Twins are forced to keep him on the 26-man all year.

Your feelings on the prospects in that general range will determine whether you think they should do that deal or not. But I don't think comparisons to the 2019 picks and trades are all that useful. Unless those other teams had tried to trade for their Rule 5 picks beforehand and failed to come to an agreement. It could be a PTBNL, but that player would likely be from that general range of prospects. Who the actual names are will depend on what the teams think of the Twins system. They'll have different ratings than MLB. But I'd guess if they make a trade it'll be for a guy most of us have heard of.

[Jeff K]

11 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

They aren’t getting a top 20 prospect for him.  Philly would have jumped on something like that months ago.

Tonkin straight up? It can be a useful disposable piece for Philly while freeing up options in the Twins pen.  

Tonkin would be a great deal for the Twins.  Probably takes a bit more than that.  I hate to float this, ,but what about Keirsey?  Love the guy, but what is his future with the Twins with Bader on board?

[Twins GFP]

6 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

IMPORTANT: No, this isn't true. I've had a hard time running down whether it's the result of a change to the process or whether it's always been this way and some combination of gentlemen's agreements or circumstances allowed previous deals to happen, but I've confirmed this with a high-ranking baseball official. The player DOES have to pass through waivers and (technically) first be returned to the original team before a trade to remove their Rule 5 restrictions can be executed. No workaround. The ONLY way for Rule 5 restrictions to lift is if the player clears waivers.

I  am not arguing here, just confirming.  Is that the case regardless of when the trade happens?  It seems to me that when Rule V trades have happened in the past, there was no DFA/waiver process, the trade just happened.

Though, as you mentioned, there may have been a recent procedural change.

[bean5302]

16 hours ago, Minderbinder said:

Maybe Philly would take Eddie Julien for Castellano....

Of course they would. Julien is on the same value tier as Jose Miranda, SWR, Zebby Matthews, and Luke Keaschall.

[LambchoP]

I say try to offer a comparable prospect like Gabby Gonzalez or the like. If a trade can't be worked out, stash him in the back of the pen. Then next year, we can decide if we want to keep him as a reliever or send him to the minors to develop as a starter. Pitchers are priced at a premium, a top 20 prospect is too valuable to lose for nothing ..

[bean5302]

This is really tough. I couldn't find anything in the CBA specifically pertaining to this issue, and the "full rights" trade scenario has appeared on the MLB.com website since 2020 (found snapshots from 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 on the waybackmachine) so this clause existed in error for 5+ years?

It also makes sense to me to have the full rights provision. In the full rights trade scenario, the player is never DFA'd, never removed from the 40 man, never waived.

I tend to trust what is documented on MLB.com since I've run into plenty of executives, management, etc who have been incorrect in their assumptions across my professional career.

In any case, Castellano's much higher profile now after being selected in the Rule 5 by the Twins. There are a ton of teams who'll be looking into him. Even if the Twins could work out a deal with Philadelphia, it'd be expensive, IMHO. Much more expensive than people are expecting here. Castellano was arguably better than every single Twins pitching prospect not named Zebby Matthews in AA last year (including Andrew Morris). He's not going to make it through waivers, and the Twins would have to give up something pretty substantial when there's just no need to do it. If Castellano is as good or better than Ronny Henriquez or Kody Funderburk, that's the bar. The Twins have another 3 weeks to evaluate his stuff. If it looks good in ST, but he's bad in MLB blow out games, fine, DFA and see if they can get him through waivers (won't happen now).

[ashbury]

8 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

IMPORTANT: No, this isn't true. I've had a hard time running down whether it's the result of a change to the process or whether it's always been this way and some combination of gentlemen's agreements or circumstances allowed previous deals to happen, but I've confirmed this with a high-ranking baseball official. The player DOES have to pass through waivers and (technically) first be returned to the original team before a trade to remove their Rule 5 restrictions can be executed. No workaround. The ONLY way for Rule 5 restrictions to lift is if the player clears waivers.

Thanks!  Please ask this high-ranker to get MLB's online Glossary updated/corrected/clarified so that I don't pass incorrect information thinking it's official.  The Glossary is a fantastic resource and I use it often.

It would be simpler if the Glossary left out the sentence about working out a trade with the original club.  Pass the player through waivers, return the player to the original club, and then after that the clubs can do what they want.

I often try to fact-check what I write* but I don't bother trying to find a second source for something mlb.com itself is telling me.

 

* and more often don't 😀

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

It seems to me that when Rule V trades have happened in the past, there was no DFA/waiver process, the trade just happened.

Teams are not obligated to announce waivers publicly, and often don't.  DFA is usually a little easier to know, because it's what removes a player from the 40-man, and we notice (if for no other reason) because a new player has been added.  You know waivers have happened implicitly, after certain moves are made, for instance Randy Dobnak being sent to AAA yet again; the DFA period is longer than the waiver period and the latter may occur anytime during the former.  Of course, this in turn requires accurate understanding of roster rules, which is the topic right now.

The OOTP game has Rule-5 drafts, and I seem to recall being unable to swing a trade of such a player - I thought it was merely a quirk of the programming, but maybe it turns out that the game is spot-on 100% accurate in this detail.  I'll have to check again sometime.

[USAFChief]

9 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

IMPORTANT: No, this isn't true. I've had a hard time running down whether it's the result of a change to the process or whether it's always been this way and some combination of gentlemen's agreements or circumstances allowed previous deals to happen, but I've confirmed this with a high-ranking baseball official. The player DOES have to pass through waivers and (technically) first be returned to the original team before a trade to remove their Rule 5 restrictions can be executed. No workaround. The ONLY way for Rule 5 restrictions to lift is if the player clears waivers.

I think there might be a misunderstanding here.

I think maybe you're speaking of the Twins trading Castellano to another organization. In which case, see your post.

Working out a trade with the Phillies (the losing org) doesn't require waivers.

 

[Matthew Trueblood]

5 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I  am not arguing here, just confirming.  Is that the case regardless of when the trade happens?  It seems to me that when Rule V trades have happened in the past, there was no DFA/waiver process, the trade just happened.

Though, as you mentioned, there may have been a recent procedural change.

At least with the batch of example deals Cody offered here, there *was* a DFA and a waiver clearance. Teams just weren't eager to scoop up any of those players with Rule 5 restrictions attached at that time—and, you never know, that could be the case with Castellano too. 

It seems, at least, to have been a more perfunctory process in the past. Teams have gotten steadily more hawkish about waiver pickups over the last two decades, and this might be part of that, rather than a true rule change. Norms have shifted. If a team thinks a guy can help them, they'll snare them, whereas they might have been a bit less aggressive in the past.

[JD-TWINS]

18 hours ago, Fatbat said:

A trade seems to be logical but why not throw him into the bullpen to see if he rises to the occasion and survives in MLB. We wont know until he is tested in the regular season! 

If they just throw him in the Pen without trading for him, he has no options. If he sucks BUT with upside, they cannot send him down all year without Philly just getting him back. If he has perceivable value to organization based in n what they’ve seen & know, they should make a trade.

[Fatbat]

54 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

If they just throw him in the Pen without trading for him, he has no options. If he sucks BUT with upside, they cannot send him down all year without Philly just getting him back. If he has perceivable value to organization based in n what they’ve seen & know, they should make a trade.

Agreed! 

[KBJ1]

If rule 5 allows a trade that bypasses waiver requirements,  then do.it. 

Stewart is a stud when healthy. Topa isnever healthy, Alcala has been mis firing for 6 years now and Tompkins is a retread.