Deer In Headlights, Twins Keep Getting Hit By Comeback Losses. Can They Dodge the Fatal One?

[Eric Blonigen]

As recently as an August 17th, the Twins had a 92.4% chance to make the playoffs. Since then, they have lost no fewer than five games in which they had better than an 85% chance of winning the game. So in a way, we're just getting daily practice in disappointment, gearing up for the big one.

Image courtesy of © David Richard-Imagn Images

Their bullpen has collapsed, most of the hitters aren’t hitting, and the Twins have seen bloop hit after bloop hit land against them. Coin-flip calls are consistently going against them. They are recording outs on the basepaths at an alarming rate. After Wednesday’s games, the Twins are now hanging onto the final Wild Card spot by just a half-game over the Tigers, with the Mariners nipping at their heels. Is this really going to fall apart?

Since Aug. 17, the Twins have gone 10-19. Over that same stretch, the Tigers have gone 17-8. The culprits? Every hitter not named Matt Wallner, Kyle Farmer, Trevor Larnach, and to a lesser extent Carlos Santana; every pitcher not named Bailey Ober, Pablo López, or Cole Sands; and every opposing team playing like they want to win more than the Twins. Let’s dig in.

The Unfortunate Losses
As mentioned above, the Twins have blown five likely wins.

Aug. 18: The Twins were winning 4-0 for much of the game, thanks to a López gem. Jorge Alcalá pitched the seventh inning in relief, and gave up five earned runs while recording just two outs. The Twins came back and tied it up at 5-5 in the 9th inning, forcing extra innings. They had a chance to score in the 10th, but fell victim to a play at the plate going against them. In the bottom of the frame, the Rangers scored on a José Miranda error. At one point, the Twins were 94.7% likely to win the game.

Aug. 20: Just two days later, the Twins were up 5-3 heading into the bottom of the eighth. They were 86.4% likely to win... and, smash cut to Steven Okert giving up four runs while recording just one out, and the Twins lost another winnable game.

Aug. 25: Another heartbreaker. The Twins were winning 2-1 headed into the 9th inning, and had a 91.3% chance to win. Naturally, they turned to their shutdown closer, who… wasn’t up to the shutdown. He gave up the lead and the game.

Sept. 16: Against the Guardians, the Twins were up 3-1 in the seventh inning, after another strong López start. They had an 88.8% chance to win the game at that point--then, Griffin Jax, who’s been their best pitcher all season, gave up two runs and the lead. The Twins, of course, lost.

Sept. 18: Bailey Ober shoved. He set a new career high in strikeouts, and his only mistakes were two solo homers to Josh Naylor. In this case, the offense couldn’t hit in key spots, going just 4-14 with runners in scoring position. With the game headed into extra innings, the Twins scored two in the top of the frame, then went with Ronny Henriquez over Cole Sands for the bottom of the 10th. It didn’t go well. Three Guardians scored, to walk it off. After the top of the 10th, the Twins had an 86.2% chance to win.

This, of course, does not factor in other unfortunate losses, like the Aug. 31 Zebby Matthews start against the Blue Jays where the game was over five minutes in, or the Sept. 14 drubbing at the hands of the Reds. This Twins team can find all sorts of ways to lose.

The Hitters
In September, the Twins have a .664 OPS. That’s not great for a team with playoff aspirations, as it’s solidly below average. Many individual players have performed worse. All-Star Willi Castro has a .634 over that span. Royce Lewis is sitting at .505. Brooks Lee is even worse, at .469. José Miranda is at .564. Christian Vázquez is at .475. Edouard Julien is another member of the sub-.600 OPS club, at .593 this month. It’s tough to win when that many hitters just aren’t hitting consistently. Oh, and the defense has been bad, too. That ties directly into the pitchers blowing leads.

The Pitchers
Some ink has been spilled around the rookie trio of Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews running out of gas, as they eclipse their professional innings thrown highs for single seasons. However, it bears remembering that those three pitchers have not consistently performed well, and are also not going deep into games, forcing extra work on an already shaky bullpen.

Speaking of which: Did you know that the Twins relievers are allowing inherited runners to score at a historic rate? True story. Bert Blyleven always used to say “Walks will Haunt” on broadcasts. Perhaps that should be updated for the 2024 season - something like “baserunners of any kind will haunt if a relief pitcher is coming into the game”. Doesn’t have quite the same ring to it though.

Jhoan Durán carries a 6.75 ERA over the past month, despite encouraging peripherals. Jax has given up runs in three of his past seven outings. So has Caleb Thielbar. For Alcalá, it’s five of his past nine. Louie Varland has gotten shelled both as a starter and as a reliever. Michael Tonkin has allowed runs in half of his past eight games. This, of course, does not factor in all of the relievers the Twins have jettisoned already this season, including Jay Jackson, Josh Staumont, Steven Okert, Trevor Richards, and a couple others. If you have only two starters you can trust, and a bullpen that’s seemingly overmatched on a nightly basis, that’s a recipe for disaster.

In addition to the bad luck, the mediocre pitching, and the lack of clutch hitting, let’s not forget the questionable send calls leading to so many outs at the plate; the strange roster moves; and of course, the Pohlads' unwillingness to spend an even remotely acceptable amount at the trade deadline.

Overall, the dog days of the 2024 season have provided a true comedy of errors. With just 10 games left, based on the caliber of play, the results of this season feel inevitable as the Twins keep finding new ways to lose. Will Twins fans turn to the written-off, but unexpectedly 2-0 Vikings? The Timberwolves season starts soon as well. Unfortunately, if so, this will likely give the Pohlads cover to not spend this offseason, because “if only fans were interested…”.

People often say it’s the journey, not the destination. Well, the journey over the past month has not been a good one. If the Twins have any hope of playing into October, they need to start playing better. The ideal time was a month ago. The next-best time is starting now.

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What do you think? Are you still hopeful? Do you have faith the Twins can turn it around?

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[Peter]

These losses have been crushing upsetting and devastating!!! I have my heart and souls into then twins!!! Yes the Vikings are playing and off to hot start which is great wild start in 20 days/wolves soon will start and MNUFC has lost my interest with taking 1-2 months off. It’s all in on twins making playoffs!!! If ownership didn’t care we would be as bad as the white Sox and they wouldn’t have signed Correa/buxton/Royce and Pablo. That’s bulls—t saying ownership doesn’t care. They do otherwise we would be like Colorado/white Sox/angels. Just tired of ALL the badmouthing/negativity as well fire Rocco!! Don’t turn twins daily into facebook as they are evil scum bags who constantly badmouth rip twins every day and made it toxic!!!  Watching the twins is way way way more important as having a girlfriend/going out with friends need to be put on hold while season is on especially during playoff race!!!all of us must support our twins no matter what win or lose!!!! With that said-go Twins!!!

[CRF]

The deer in the headlights...is also what the manager sees when he looks in the mirror. 

[Karbo]

I was kind of surprised by last nights lineup. Here they are, in a dogfight for the last WC spot, and Buxton and Lewis are sitting, and Margot is playing? Come on guys. Suck it up and get out there! And if this is Rocco, what the heck is he  thinking? Margot should only be in lineup against LH pitchers.

[Doctor Wu]

I don't have the answers, nor any explanation for the meltdown, but it's just very very disturbing that almost every player we were raving about or had high hopes for a few months back --- Zebby, Festa, Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, and SWR --- has suddenly become a liability. Okay, we can forgive the rookie pitchers for putting them under pressure so quickly, but the rest of the team needs to step up ... and obviously that hasn't happened. 

[Eris]

Of the hitters only Wallner and Correa showed up last night. Detroit is only a 1/2 game behind in the wild card with 10 games left in the season. Who amongst us gave Detroit any chance of being in the playoffs. That indicates how poorly the Twins have played. 

[BillyBallLives]

Eric, you must be a great carpenter because you nailed it. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Not playing Buxton and Lewis last night is managerial malpractice. 

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

I was kind of surprised by last nights lineup. Here they are, in a dogfight for the last WC spot, and Buxton and Lewis are sitting, and Margot is playing? Come on guys. Suck it up and get out there! And if this is Rocco, what the heck is he  thinking? Margot should only be in lineup against LH pitchers.

It really is incredible that we were talking about Royce as savior of the franchise at the beginning of the season. And now he can't even be bothered to play in the final stretch. 

[insagt1]

Correa gave Twins hope and then Santana wrenched it away with an awful AB. Routine DP killed a rally that could have sent Guardians home. Twins needed more than 2 runs and it was right there on a silver platter. Twins killer instinct is long  gone. The pitching in the bottom of the 10th was brutal. The result was predictable. Twins don't have answers for their miserable play. It will mean going home early. This is so very disappointing watching these gut kicking losses.

 

 

[karcherd]

"the Pohlads' unwillingness to spend an even remotely acceptable amount at the trade deadline."  Do you have a source that supports this statement.  I am not a Pohlad backer but the narrative is that they would not spend at the trade deadline.  Is this a statement of fact or opinion.  They have stepped up in the past, they did cut payroll for this year which really stunk.  But was it Falvey trying to wait out the market or was it the Pohlads not providing the additional funds the reason for no activity at the trade deadline.

[Old Crow]

Rod Carew type of baseball, hitting to all fields, runnning bases, moving runners, solid defense etc.  is exciting baseball.  The game the Twins have adopted this year is not exciting baseball.

[MinnInPa]

1 hour ago, Eris said:

Of the hitters only Wallner and Correa showed up last night. Detroit is only a 1/2 game behind in the wild card with 10 games left in the season. Who amongst us gave Detroit any chance of being in the playoffs. That indicates how poorly the Twins have played. 

agreed .,.the Tigers ..SMH..  this team just cant get the key hits ..cant score runs

[Trov]

The team is ending the season just as they started.  They are not hitting with runners on base leaving way too many guys on, and their pen is just down right terrible.  There is not 1 pitcher in the pen you feel like will shut down the opposing team right now.  

Really, the offense is the bigger issue in my opinion.  You cannot expect pitchers to shut down every line up.  We need to score more runs.  Two of the losses against Cleveland we left way too many on base.  

What would be crazy is if we turn it on like we did end of April begging of May, but those were against terrible teams like White Sox, and not against teams trying to fight for playoffs.  Even if we do make wild card we will most likely lose first 2 games and be done. 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Eris said:

Of the hitters only Wallner and Correa showed up last night. Detroit is only a 1/2 game behind in the wild card with 10 games left in the season. Who amongst us gave Detroit any chance of being in the playoffs. That indicates how poorly the Twins have played. 

There were actually a number of us saying all offseason that the central wasn't a cake walk this year and that everyone not named Chicago White Sox had a shot at putting a lot of pressure on the Twins. Cleveland, KC, and Detroit had all broken in young players in 2023 and had more on the way. Detroit and KC actually added talent in the offseason, unlike Cleveland and Minnesota. This collapse is beyond what anyone saw, but there were a lot of us saying that there were 3 other teams on the rise in the central and it shouldn't just be a foregone conclusion that the Twins were walking away with an easy division win.

[Emjay]

So many components to this hot mess...I'll just say "The Pohlads"   cheap since day 1, this is nothing new to lifelong Twins fans. Karl was the cheapest of them all. At least these current Pohlads have shown the ability to spend some money; however, the red flags have been going up for quite some time with disastrous trades and absolutely no action at the trade deadline!?!?! That was code from the top down for "we got what we need and now we are checked out, work with what you've got"

Maybe it's just me, but I am dumbfounded just about every other game by Rocco's mismanagement of the lineup and the relief pitching...the constant all lefty or all righty line ups based on the starting pitcher of the opposing team is the definition of insanity; this mentality has been proven unreliable constantly. How about play the guys that are hitting the ball regardless of left or right? How about sitting Julien down and keeping Farmer in since he is now hitting and is a veteran defender? Margot should be considered frosting on a cake, not to be relied upon. Lewis and Lee are now officially sub par and even bad in both fielding and hitting; Lewis says he doesn't slump? Why the chronic rest for Buxton? He's as healthy as he's going to be, put him in the game every single day!! And Kepler was already dragging before his little "back issue". This team is either soft or Rocco is making them soft. There is a problem with the management of this team from Rocco on down to Popkins and the half witted base coaching!

Durhan is lost, Thielbar is useless, etc etc. Even if they manage to make it in to the playoffs, they will not get past the 1st round...Rocco will keep snatching defeat from the mouth of victory. You can't fire the Pohlads. Levine and Falvey? They have made some horrific moves. It's time clean house and be rid of Rocco and his incompetent crew of coaches. I'm sure many will disagree with this.

[TopGunn#22]

If there is a Silver Lining in this late season collapse it might be that we can bid farewell to Watkins as the 3B coach (and hopefully promote someone like Toby Gardenhire as the new one).  We can contemplate whether the Twins ownership will replace Rocco "Mr. Spreadsheet" Baldelli as manager and Pete Maki as the pitching coach.  Maybe get a hitting coach that can do a better job of teaching situational hitting.  We strikeout too much and we do not move baserunners well.  This is obvious with the large number of runners we leave on base. 

If the Twins do not make the playoffs, changes are in order.  Unfortunately, we can forget about replacing ownership.  We're stuck with the Pohlad's.  But this manager and this front office have left the Twins in a situation where we're depending on 3 rookies in the starting rotation and a bullpen that has had only TWO reliable performers ALL YEAR (Griffin Jax and Cole Sands) and some hitters that just can't hit.

And look, somebody has to be held responsible.  Either the Pohlad's are not letting the FO plug holes by limiting the money that can be spent, OR, the front office doesn't see the holes or understand the reasons they should have been more proactive.  SOMEBODY needs to be held accountable.  This back and forth that the Pohlad's are more than willing to spend if the right opportunity presents itself, yet we're cutting payroll as a priority and the front office's big move at the deadline was to bring in retread Trevor Richards just screams "LACK OF ACCOUNTABILITY."  Which is it?  Do the the Pohlad's WANT to spend or want to CUT?  Does the the front office HAVE the ability to make any move they deem necessary?  Or they can't because of budget constraints??   

Which is it??  It's harder to find an honest answer to that, than it is to actually know where Kamala Harris stands on various issues or to know what her economic plan for the next 4 years IS.  

Cleveland, Kansas City and Detroit ALL made some aggressive moves at the deadline.  We brought in Trevor Richards.  To which Twins fans were left feeling like Charlie Brown felt in "The Great Pumpkin" when his friends looked in their Trick or Treat bags and said "I got a Snickers bar," I got a Hershey bar," and Charlie looked in his bag and said "I got a ROCK."  (and maybe in this case...I got a Rocco !!)

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

The Twins' line-up is homerun or bust - but the personnel doesn't match that strategy. The #1 priority this offseason should be finding a hitting coach that can help the young guys with fundamentals and situational hitting.

[Old Crow]

Amen!!!

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

How many legitimate 'power' hitters do the Twins have? I wouldn't consider Royce to be in that category. Santana used to be and while he's over 20 HR's, he's not what immediately comes to mind. So you have a team that lacks power hitters and has horrible plate discipline swinging at stuff outside of the zone all in the name of hitting the 3-run homer.

 

[Emjay]

11 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

The Twins' line-up is homerun or bust - but the personnel doesn't match that strategy. The #1 priority this offseason should be finding a hitting coach that can help the young guys with fundamentals and situational hitting.

Exactly...

 

[Johnny Ringo]

2 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

I don't have the answers, nor any explanation for the meltdown, but it's just very very disturbing that almost every player we were raving about or had high hopes for a few months back --- Zebby, Festa, Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, and SWR --- has suddenly become a liability. Okay, we can forgive the rookie pitchers for putting them under pressure so quickly, but the rest of the team needs to step up ... and obviously that hasn't happened. 

Dear Doctor,

With all respect to your learned degree, everyone you mention (if you count Lewis in games played) is a rookie. This is what rookies do. If they didn't have things to work on, they wouldn't be rookies.

Rocco isn't the best but he ain't the worst. He is squarely in the middle. He has to work with what he has. 

Ultimately, this season rests on the FO. Clearly they were given a tight budget and they squandered it by keeping Kepler and Farmer. That was a head scratcher at the time and infuriating now. If their $18 million had been spent on the bullpen, this  board would be chirping about where their playoff seats are. 

 But its a beautiful day, the Vikes are 2-0 and my dog still loves me. We will get 'em next year. 

[singlesoverwalks]

I 100% agree with everything here. But let's remember that the Twins could still go on a hot streak that lasts into the playoffs and makes us forget this Very Bad Month or So. The good news is that almost all of their best players are healthy and they're still in playoff position. As of today, they still have an excellent shot. Now, Rocco might have to learn from his mistakes and get a little more conventional, it's true - hey, it could happen.

[LambchoP]

The thing that bothers me most is the starting lineup. Here we are, in the fight of our lives trying to sneak into the playoffs, and Rocco decides basically every game one or two of Lewis Buxton and Correa need the day off...wtf?! If we're going to hang on, our guys need to be out there, everyday. Especially since Buxton and Correa have looked great since they came back. You would think these guys would be fighting to be out there everyday if they really wanted to rally the team and take a playoff spot. The way everyone looks now, especially Rocco, is that they'd be just fine missing the playoffs because they're all too tired and want to go home. No fight in this team at all, it's sad. Go Vikings I guess:)

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

If there is a Silver Lining in this late season collapse it might be that we can bid farewell to Watkins as the 3B coach (and hopefully promote someone like Toby Gardenhire as the new one).  We can contemplate whether the Twins ownership will replace Rocco "Mr. Spreadsheet" Baldelli as manager and Pete Maki as the pitching coach.  Maybe get a hitting coach that can do a better job of teaching situational hitting.  We strikeout too much and we do not move baserunners well.  This is obvious with the large number of runners we leave on base. 

If the Twins do not make the playoffs, changes are in order.  Unfortunately, we can forget about replacing ownership.  We're stuck with the Pohlad's.  But this manager and this front office have left the Twins in a situation where we're depending on 3 rookies in the starting rotation and a bullpen that has had only TWO reliable performers ALL YEAR (Griffin Jax and Cole Sands) and some hitters that just can't hit.

And look, somebody has to be held responsible.  Either the Pohlad's are not letting the FO plug holes by limiting the money that can be spent, OR, the front office doesn't see the holes or understand the reasons they should have been more proactive.  SOMEBODY needs to be held accountable.  This back and forth that the Pohlad's are more than willing to spend if the right opportunity presents itself, yet we're cutting payroll as a priority and the front office's big move at the deadline was to bring in retread Trevor Richards just screams "LACK OF ACCOUNTABILITY."  Which is it?  Do the the Pohlad's WANT to spend or want to CUT?  Does the the front office HAVE the ability to make any move they deem necessary?  Or they can't because of budget constraints??   

Which is it??  It's harder to find an honest answer to that, than it is to actually know where Kamala Harris stands on various issues or to know what her economic plan for the next 4 years IS.  

Cleveland, Kansas City and Detroit ALL made some aggressive moves at the deadline.  We brought in Trevor Richards.  To which Twins fans were left feeling like Charlie Brown felt in "The Great Pumpkin" when his friends looked in their Trick or Treat bags and said "I got a Snickers bar," I got a Hershey bar," and Charlie looked in his bag and said "I got a ROCK."  (and maybe in this case...I got a Rocco !!)

You had me nodding my head correctly until you lowered yourself to say something political in a baseball blog.  

[Rhyno006]

Quote

Cleveland, Kansas City and Detroit ALL made some aggressive moves at the deadline.  We brought in Trevor Richards.  To which Twins fans were left feeling like Charlie Brown felt in "The Great Pumpkin" when his friends looked in their Trick or Treat bags and said "I got a Snickers bar," I got a Hershey bar," and Charlie looked in his bag and said "I got a ROCK."  (and maybe in this case...I got a Rocco !!)

This. Is. Brilliant!!!

And totally sums up my disdain for this whole Twins org right now, from the "owners" to the FO to the manager/coaches to the players. This season has stunk really bad at times, and if they continue to wet the bed down the stretch this is going to leave a really bad taste in a lot of people's mouths. 

[AKTwinsFan]

I think the game today will decide their fate. Win and still got a chance, lose and outside looking in for rest of season. They had what it takes pre-all star break, now they are mediocre. 

[Ricky Vaughn]

   Everyone wanting to fire Rocco and the coaches should consider this. They are doing exactly what the front office wants them to do. The days of the field staff having the freedom to run the team the front office put together are long gone. Decisions on what the hitting, pitching , and fielding philosophy should be are made by people above the field staff. Right or wrong this is the way it is now for most teams. I'm not saying the manager doesn't have a say, but he has to live with the group decisions that are made.      

   If you want the team to emphasize other things Falvey and company have to be fired .

 

[USAFChief]

2 minutes ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

   Everyone wanting to fire Rocco and the coaches should consider this. They are doing exactly what the front office wants them to do. The days of the field staff having the freedom to run the team the front office put together are long gone. Decisions on what the hitting, pitching , and fielding philosophy should be are made by people above the field staff. Right or wrong this is the way it is now for most teams. I'm not saying the manager doesn't have a say, but he has to live with the group decisions that are made.      

   If you want the team to emphasize other things Falvey and company have to be fired .

 

I think you're overstating the influence on managerial decisions. 

Overall philosophy, sure.

Writing out the lineup? Making substitutions? Pitching decisions? 

No.

That's the manager. 

[Parfigliano]

What makes you think they haven't already suffered that "fatal loss"