Twins Video
Their bullpen has collapsed, most of the hitters aren’t hitting, and the Twins have seen bloop hit after bloop hit land against them. Coin-flip calls are consistently going against them. They are recording outs on the basepaths at an alarming rate. After Wednesday’s games, the Twins are now hanging onto the final Wild Card spot by just a half-game over the Tigers, with the Mariners nipping at their heels. Is this really going to fall apart?
Since Aug. 17, the Twins have gone 10-19. Over that same stretch, the Tigers have gone 17-8. The culprits? Every hitter not named Matt Wallner, Kyle Farmer, Trevor Larnach, and to a lesser extent Carlos Santana; every pitcher not named Bailey Ober, Pablo López, or Cole Sands; and every opposing team playing like they want to win more than the Twins. Let’s dig in.
The Unfortunate Losses
As mentioned above, the Twins have blown five likely wins.
Aug. 18: The Twins were winning 4-0 for much of the game, thanks to a López gem. Jorge Alcalá pitched the seventh inning in relief, and gave up five earned runs while recording just two outs. The Twins came back and tied it up at 5-5 in the 9th inning, forcing extra innings. They had a chance to score in the 10th, but fell victim to a play at the plate going against them. In the bottom of the frame, the Rangers scored on a José Miranda error. At one point, the Twins were 94.7% likely to win the game.
Aug. 20: Just two days later, the Twins were up 5-3 heading into the bottom of the eighth. They were 86.4% likely to win... and, smash cut to Steven Okert giving up four runs while recording just one out, and the Twins lost another winnable game.
Aug. 25: Another heartbreaker. The Twins were winning 2-1 headed into the 9th inning, and had a 91.3% chance to win. Naturally, they turned to their shutdown closer, who… wasn’t up to the shutdown. He gave up the lead and the game.
Sept. 16: Against the Guardians, the Twins were up 3-1 in the seventh inning, after another strong López start. They had an 88.8% chance to win the game at that point--then, Griffin Jax, who’s been their best pitcher all season, gave up two runs and the lead. The Twins, of course, lost.
Sept. 18: Bailey Ober shoved. He set a new career high in strikeouts, and his only mistakes were two solo homers to Josh Naylor. In this case, the offense couldn’t hit in key spots, going just 4-14 with runners in scoring position. With the game headed into extra innings, the Twins scored two in the top of the frame, then went with Ronny Henriquez over Cole Sands for the bottom of the 10th. It didn’t go well. Three Guardians scored, to walk it off. After the top of the 10th, the Twins had an 86.2% chance to win.
This, of course, does not factor in other unfortunate losses, like the Aug. 31 Zebby Matthews start against the Blue Jays where the game was over five minutes in, or the Sept. 14 drubbing at the hands of the Reds. This Twins team can find all sorts of ways to lose.
The Hitters
In September, the Twins have a .664 OPS. That’s not great for a team with playoff aspirations, as it’s solidly below average. Many individual players have performed worse. All-Star Willi Castro has a .634 over that span. Royce Lewis is sitting at .505. Brooks Lee is even worse, at .469. José Miranda is at .564. Christian Vázquez is at .475. Edouard Julien is another member of the sub-.600 OPS club, at .593 this month. It’s tough to win when that many hitters just aren’t hitting consistently. Oh, and the defense has been bad, too. That ties directly into the pitchers blowing leads.
The Pitchers
Some ink has been spilled around the rookie trio of Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews running out of gas, as they eclipse their professional innings thrown highs for single seasons. However, it bears remembering that those three pitchers have not consistently performed well, and are also not going deep into games, forcing extra work on an already shaky bullpen.
Speaking of which: Did you know that the Twins relievers are allowing inherited runners to score at a historic rate? True story. Bert Blyleven always used to say “Walks will Haunt” on broadcasts. Perhaps that should be updated for the 2024 season - something like “baserunners of any kind will haunt if a relief pitcher is coming into the game”. Doesn’t have quite the same ring to it though.
Jhoan Durán carries a 6.75 ERA over the past month, despite encouraging peripherals. Jax has given up runs in three of his past seven outings. So has Caleb Thielbar. For Alcalá, it’s five of his past nine. Louie Varland has gotten shelled both as a starter and as a reliever. Michael Tonkin has allowed runs in half of his past eight games. This, of course, does not factor in all of the relievers the Twins have jettisoned already this season, including Jay Jackson, Josh Staumont, Steven Okert, Trevor Richards, and a couple others. If you have only two starters you can trust, and a bullpen that’s seemingly overmatched on a nightly basis, that’s a recipe for disaster.
In addition to the bad luck, the mediocre pitching, and the lack of clutch hitting, let’s not forget the questionable send calls leading to so many outs at the plate; the strange roster moves; and of course, the Pohlads' unwillingness to spend an even remotely acceptable amount at the trade deadline.
Overall, the dog days of the 2024 season have provided a true comedy of errors. With just 10 games left, based on the caliber of play, the results of this season feel inevitable as the Twins keep finding new ways to lose. Will Twins fans turn to the written-off, but unexpectedly 2-0 Vikings? The Timberwolves season starts soon as well. Unfortunately, if so, this will likely give the Pohlads cover to not spend this offseason, because “if only fans were interested…”.
People often say it’s the journey, not the destination. Well, the journey over the past month has not been a good one. If the Twins have any hope of playing into October, they need to start playing better. The ideal time was a month ago. The next-best time is starting now.
What do you think? Are you still hopeful? Do you have faith the Twins can turn it around?







Recommended Comments
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now