The Twins Don't Have to Play Great September Ball to Be an October Threat

[Hans Birkeland]

The seventh- and eighth-best teams in the American League aren't good. There is a non-zero chance that Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton, and Carlos Correa will start Game One of a playoff series. David Festa and Louie Varland can be the bullpen bridge that the team lacked in August. Buckle up.

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins have been really bad for the past few weeks. Well, just for three series, really, going 2-7 against the Padres, Cardinals and Braves. It was ugly, with three of those games lost via late bullpen implosions. Homerism is punishable by law in Minnesota--I get that--but when you look at the outlook for the rest of the season, a couple of things stand out. One: the team likely won’t face much resistance in clinching at least the sixth seed in the American League. And two: the top end of this roster is nothing to sneeze at, especially if guys like Louie Varland, Chris Paddack and David Festa are put in the best position to succeed. More on that later.

The threats to the Twins holding the sixth seed in the playoffs are the Red Sox, Tigers and Mariners. Of those teams, only the Tigers are playing well, and they are five games back of the Twins, only recently climbing above .500. They also have no head-to-head games against Minnesota remaining, with the Twins holding the tiebreaker. The Mariners can’t hit, and the Red Sox can’t build upon any success they have, currently a half-game ahead of the Tigers.

Another reason why that four-and-a-half-game lead over Boston is bigger than it appears, is what you saw against the Blue Jays, with Toronto showing the warts of a team playing out the string. There is plenty of talent left on their roster, but with George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Daulton Varsho available to pinch-hit in the eighth and ninth innings Sunday, none were called upon. Springer also got Friday off. It just doesn’t make sense for teams that are out of it to put their best team out there; those clubs are better off seeing what they have in their young guys. When the Twins play the Reds and Marlins in a few weeks, those teams won’t be pushing their best starter an extra inning, and guys like Elly De La Cruz and Xavier Edwards might get one of the three days off.

That doesn’t mean the Twins will magically play better. It also doesn’t mean the lesser opponents they face in September are going to phone it in. But the Twins are playing for something, and those opposing managers have to be thinking of 2025 and beyond, not just winning a meaningless game in September by throwing your best reliever on a back-to-back.

Additionally, while it might seem like terrible, no-good, very bad luck that Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton are currently on the IL with murky return timetables, the truth is that the team doesn’t need them to make the playoffs. They probably need them to catch Cleveland, but then again, the Guardians have been terrible since the All-Star break, so who knows? The silver lining is that the later those two stars return (and it seems almost a certainty that they will at some point), the less chance they have to get another injury prior to the postseason, which could be crucial to their availability in October.

Again, I’m not saying the Twins deserve the good fortune of being able to play mediocre baseball down the stretch and still limp comfortably into the playoffs, but who cares whether they deserve it? At the rate things are going, their first-round matchup may very well be Cleveland or Kansas City, with Houston just a couple of games back of Cleveland right now for the second seed and finishing their season with a series at Progressive Field.

So what happens if the Twins back into the playoffs? Surely, that means that they will be totally gassed and won’t be able to do anything of note. I would push back on that argument, based on the fact that the Twins have two really good starting pitchers in Bailey Ober and Pablo López, with each capable of dominance on any given night against any given opponent. They also will likely have Buxton and Correa back. I’m not counting on either of them being in an offensive rhythm when they return, but it does seem likely that they will return and stabilize two of the most important defensive positions on the diamond, and we have seen in recent weeks just how important that can be.

The most important hitters for the Twins down the stretch will be Royce Lewis, José Miranda and Matt Wallner. If each of those guys is playing decently enough that pitchers have to stick to their approach against them, anything Buxton and Correa can provide will be gravy. The Twins will also have the clutch duo of Carlos Santana and Trevor Larnach (.822 and .949 OPS in high-leverage spots, respectively); hopefully a rested Willi Castro; and maybe a little of Austin Martin and Brooks Lee. One of Ryan Jeffers and Christian Vázquez are usually on a hot streak, as well. My point is, not everything has to go right for the lineup to be formidable in a short postseason series. If Buxton and Correa are clicking, think back to how fun June was, when the team could score six runs a game in their sleep.

What about the back end of the rotation, and the bullpen? Honestly, I think this sorts itself out pretty cleanly. Simeon Woods Richardson is your third starter. He’s a gutty competitor, and when the lights are brightest, he can give you four or five innings of decent ball. He limits home runs pretty well, and keeps the team in the game almost every time out, and that is what a number three playoff starter has to do. Do I wish this was Joe Ryan, stuff and experience-wise? Sure, but temperament-wise, I like the rookie over the more mercurial, one-bloop-hit-can-really-rattle-his-cage Ryan.

I also think that David Festa’s skillset plays best as a playoff relief ace--one of those guys who, when they don’t have to worry about pacing themselves, can go through a lineup once and be utterly dominant, especially against a team that hasn’t seen much of him. Imagine a scenario wherein Woods Richardson goes four innings and gives up one run, while Festa comes in and goes 2 ⅔ shutout frames to give the game to Cole Sands, Griffin Jax and Jhoan Durán. That works, at least in theory.

I don’t trust Zebby Matthews as much in that spot, and he might be the best choice for fourth starter--who goes through the lineup once, if he’s needed at all. 

Do keep in mind that Varland has done nothing as a starter to argue against his relief résumé. His cutter and fastball jump up a couple of ticks in relief, which gives him the margin for error in his command that he just doesn’t have as a starter. He’s a relief weapon, until proven otherwise. Chris Paddack, for all his trials and tribulations, was good as a playoff reliever last year, going 3 ⅔ innings and allowing just one hit while striking out six. His return timeline is pretty similar to his timeline last year, as well. This team has a bad middle relief corps right now, but pooled together, they have enough arms to have that not be a weakness in the playoffs.

As for Durán, this year just hasn’t been kind to him. He has struggled to pitch with reduced stuff, but at the end of the day, he has blown just two saves all year (one being the Edouard Julien fiasco against St. Louis) with his FIP being basically identical to last year’s 3.22. His strikeout rate is down, but so are his walk rate and his home-run rate. He’s still a good reliever, and good relievers who throw 102 with low walk rates can get hot in October in a hurry. If he ends up being a liability, which is certainly possible, then the Twins won’t go anywhere in October--simple as that. He’s a roll of the dice, but what about the other AL teams? Do Yankees fans feel great about Clay Holmes? Do Oriole fans like the idea of Craig Kimbrel or Seranthony Dominguez closing games in October? How about the Royals with, um, Lucas Erceg? Even Josh Hader of the Astros has a higher FIP than Durán, and has allowed a whopping 10 home runs this year.

The Twins should be fighting for their playoff lives. But they aren’t, and have the luxury of being able to (more or less) coast to the finish line--where their top-end talent can shine its brightest. We might as well just enjoy the ride.

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[Craig Arko]

Perhaps not, but it would help to not just back in.

[Danchat]

They don't have to play great to get in, but if they continue to play as they are, they won't be winning many playoff games. Which I believe is the goal...

[RpR]

If they get into the postseason, how matters little.

[tampatwins]

This type of post, while true, feels like it’s just tempting the baseball gods to have the Red Sox and tigers go on a heater and the twins fall out of the picture with their mediocre play…or barely make it by the skin of their teeth 

[silverslugger]

True, but they do have to play better than bad, or they might not be in at all...

[Western SD Fan]

I appreciate the post that is probably a little closer to reality and not us waiting for the sky to fall. With that being said, here is my sky is falling analysis.

The starting pitching, even with the warts expected from 3 rookies, has been better than I would have ever hoped for. As for the hitting, RISP has been and continues to be a problem. As the games get tighter, this will become a much bigger problem than it already has been.

Your article is still on the fantasy that Correa, Buxton, and Paddack are actually coming back. Correa has been out since before the ASB and we were told that it was supposed to be a short stint. Since Nike can’t seem to build a pair of shoes he can wear, we are still waiting. Buxton’s IL stint originally sounded like a precaution vs something more serious like it has been and he wasn’t originally supposed to go beyond to 10 days. Paddack is just suffering from coming back from TJ, similar to Maeda. We were probably expecting too much from him to start with. We have been hooked with the same hope that led the FO not to do anything at the deadline. Our replacements are just coming back from the IL such as Stewart, Topa, and Kirilloff. Until they step on the field, I can’t count on any of them helping. Many a battle has been lost waiting on reinforcements that never came.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Basically saying we have to hope younger players step up and other teams fall apart.  Sounds about right.

 

[BH67]

The Rangers and Diamondbacks demonstrated last autumn that getting into the playoffs matters more than where one is seeded. Such is the inevitable outcome of a four-round playoff in a sport where a series win is rarely greater than a 60% probability. A consistently dangerous offense, not a streaky hot one, will make the difference with good pitching.

SWR, Festa and Matthews are a long way from Smoltz, Glavine and Maddux -- for now. If healthy, they will shorten that gap considerably in the next two years, and their travails this year are making that possible.

[DocBauer]

That's a lot to go right. But then again, Buxton is probably on a short rehab in the next couple of days. If Correa is relatively functional the last week of the season and the playoffs, we know what kind of a difference he can make. IF Paddack makes it back at all...and time is running very short as he just began throwing...he might good for an inning at a time. Varland and Festa absolutely can make a difference in the pen, though Festa might be needed in the rotation should the Twins advance beyond the 1st round.

What's been most concerning to me overall...probably even more than a handful of ugly pen blowup that cost us 3 games we should have won...has been a relative collapse of the offense as of late. Even without Correa and Buxton, they still scored some runs and won a few games and the team was still playing relatively good ball. But again, it just feels like everyone has gone cold at the same time lately, especially in crucial moments. The bats start getting hot again, I do believe this team can be dangerous.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Yes.  This is true.  BUT. .  . they're going to need to do something right in September to be on a path to do nearly everything right in October.  I would be a lot more confident if they played a solid September (maybe +4 or +5 games over .500) than if they make it in based on everyone else losing as much as or more than they do.  They could certainly go on a bender in October, and I would like them to.  Let's hope it can happen. 

I know I've said this MANY times in postings like this.  The 1987 team was not a juggernaut.  They were a decent team that got hot at the right time and won it all.  Stranger things could happen.

[mikelink45]

We've often seen that it's momentum carrying into the playoffs that takes teams to the top. So I disagree. We need to be playing hard and well and come in with some momentum on our side. 

[Riverbrian]

Get in

I don't care how.. Just get in. 

Once that happens. None of the numbers accumulated this season or any past season by any of the players on any of the teams will matter. Those numbers are all history.

In front of all teams and all players. Potentially a 20 game stretch of new numbers to accumulate. Up will be down and down will be up. The season numbers will not repeat with the exception of a few cases. 

 

[insagt1]

I really dislike that Twins-Orioles will finish things up for 2024. Both teams will be fighting for seeding in all likelihood and I don't want either team to lose! I hope the O's can take care of the Yanks first, so maybe it won't be so dire for them.

The final 3 weeks should produce some real interesting baseball. I think we'll finally see Buck this weekend, but Im not at all confident that Correa will be ready to play at all--unless Twins aren't telling us something more relevant about his setbacks. If he plays it will be a bonus.

[Brandon]

If we go 15-10 the rest of the way, we are back to a 90 win team.  If we go 10-15 we are an 85 win team and that leaves the door open for Detroit, Boston or Seattle to accidentally get hot and finish with 86 wins and us missing the playoffs.  I think 12 more wins will do the job.  But it feels like a good playoff team should win 90 at minimum.

we’ve known all year that we have a good playoff roster so it’s a matter of max health and last week or so preparation for the returning injureds.  It will be fun to watch 🍿😎🥤

[Whitey333]

You just never know how this team is going to go.  People expecting Buxton to suddenly return and become a driving force for a sprint drive to the playoffs.  He's had nearly 9 years as a part time player.  I hope they make the playoffs.  I think they will.  Ownership will be happy as they may receive some extra pocket change.  But an early exit would be embarrassing. 

[Trov]

They do not need to play great to make the playoffs, but if the pen does not get better we will be a quick 2 games and done.  Unless Lopez can dominate game one and Ober and get really deep game 2 it will be hard to lean on Jax and Duran for too many innings both games.  We will need Acala, Sands, and someone else to pitch an inning or two as well. 

[Fatbat]

As of right now, we are 4.5 (5tie breaker) games from having the best record and #1 seed in the A.L.  We should be playing for that.  7 teams are in that mix.  We have as good of a shot at it as any of the 7. 

[D.C Twins]

[dxpavelka]

On 9/2/2024 at 1:18 PM, Craig Arko said:

Perhaps not, but it would help to not just back in.

I'm hesitant to call five and a half up in the wild card backing in.  In fact the biggest obstacle in their path now MIGHT be the fact that they are currently sitting in the second wild card spot and potentially staring at three games in Yankee Stadium rather than the three in Houston that the third wild card would get.