The Twins Don't Have to Play Great September Ball to Be an October Threat

The Twins have been really bad for the past few weeks. Well, just for three series, really, going 2-7 against the Padres, Cardinals and Braves. It was ugly, with three of those games lost via late bullpen implosions. Homerism is punishable by law in Minnesota--I get that--but when you look at the outlook for the rest of the season, a couple of things stand out. One: the team likely won’t face much resistance in clinching at least the sixth seed in the American League. And two: the top end of this roster is nothing to sneeze at, especially if guys like Louie Varland, Chris Paddack and David Festa are put in the best position to succeed. More on that later.

The threats to the Twins holding the sixth seed in the playoffs are the Red Sox, Tigers and Mariners. Of those teams, only the Tigers are playing well, and they are five games back of the Twins, only recently climbing above .500. They also have no head-to-head games against Minnesota remaining, with the Twins holding the tiebreaker. The Mariners can’t hit, and the Red Sox can’t build upon any success they have, currently a half-game ahead of the Tigers.

Another reason why that four-and-a-half-game lead over Boston is bigger than it appears, is what you saw against the Blue Jays, with Toronto showing the warts of a team playing out the string. There is plenty of talent left on their roster, but with George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Daulton Varsho available to pinch-hit in the eighth and ninth innings Sunday, none were called upon. Springer also got Friday off. It just doesn’t make sense for teams that are out of it to put their best team out there; those clubs are better off seeing what they have in their young guys. When the Twins play the Reds and Marlins in a few weeks, those teams won’t be pushing their best starter an extra inning, and guys like Elly De La Cruz and Xavier Edwards might get one of the three days off.

That doesn’t mean the Twins will magically play better. It also doesn’t mean the lesser opponents they face in September are going to phone it in. But the Twins are playing for something, and those opposing managers have to be thinking of 2025 and beyond, not just winning a meaningless game in September by throwing your best reliever on a back-to-back.

Additionally, while it might seem like terrible, no-good, very bad luck that Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton are currently on the IL with murky return timetables, the truth is that the team doesn’t need them to make the playoffs. They probably need them to catch Cleveland, but then again, the Guardians have been terrible since the All-Star break, so who knows? The silver lining is that the later those two stars return (and it seems almost a certainty that they will at some point), the less chance they have to get another injury prior to the postseason, which could be crucial to their availability in October.

Again, I’m not saying the Twins deserve the good fortune of being able to play mediocre baseball down the stretch and still limp comfortably into the playoffs, but who cares whether they deserve it? At the rate things are going, their first-round matchup may very well be Cleveland or Kansas City, with Houston just a couple of games back of Cleveland right now for the second seed and finishing their season with a series at Progressive Field.

So what happens if the Twins back into the playoffs? Surely, that means that they will be totally gassed and won’t be able to do anything of note. I would push back on that argument, based on the fact that the Twins have two really good starting pitchers in Bailey Ober and Pablo López, with each capable of dominance on any given night against any given opponent. They also will likely have Buxton and Correa back. I’m not counting on either of them being in an offensive rhythm when they return, but it does seem likely that they will return and stabilize two of the most important defensive positions on the diamond, and we have seen in recent weeks just how important that can be.

The most important hitters for the Twins down the stretch will be Royce Lewis, José Miranda and Matt Wallner. If each of those guys is playing decently enough that pitchers have to stick to their approach against them, anything Buxton and Correa can provide will be gravy. The Twins will also have the clutch duo of Carlos Santana and Trevor Larnach (.822 and .949 OPS in high-leverage spots, respectively); hopefully a rested Willi Castro; and maybe a little of Austin Martin and Brooks Lee. One of Ryan Jeffers and Christian Vázquez are usually on a hot streak, as well. My point is, not everything has to go right for the lineup to be formidable in a short postseason series. If Buxton and Correa are clicking, think back to how fun June was, when the team could score six runs a game in their sleep.

What about the back end of the rotation, and the bullpen? Honestly, I think this sorts itself out pretty cleanly. Simeon Woods Richardson is your third starter. He’s a gutty competitor, and when the lights are brightest, he can give you four or five innings of decent ball. He limits home runs pretty well, and keeps the team in the game almost every time out, and that is what a number three playoff starter has to do. Do I wish this was Joe Ryan, stuff and experience-wise? Sure, but temperament-wise, I like the rookie over the more mercurial, one-bloop-hit-can-really-rattle-his-cage Ryan.

I also think that David Festa’s skillset plays best as a playoff relief ace--one of those guys who, when they don’t have to worry about pacing themselves, can go through a lineup once and be utterly dominant, especially against a team that hasn’t seen much of him. Imagine a scenario wherein Woods Richardson goes four innings and gives up one run, while Festa comes in and goes 2 ⅔ shutout frames to give the game to Cole Sands, Griffin Jax and Jhoan Durán. That works, at least in theory.

I don’t trust Zebby Matthews as much in that spot, and he might be the best choice for fourth starter--who goes through the lineup once, if he’s needed at all. 

Do keep in mind that Varland has done nothing as a starter to argue against his relief résumé. His cutter and fastball jump up a couple of ticks in relief, which gives him the margin for error in his command that he just doesn’t have as a starter. He’s a relief weapon, until proven otherwise. Chris Paddack, for all his trials and tribulations, was good as a playoff reliever last year, going 3 ⅔ innings and allowing just one hit while striking out six. His return timeline is pretty similar to his timeline last year, as well. This team has a bad middle relief corps right now, but pooled together, they have enough arms to have that not be a weakness in the playoffs.

As for Durán, this year just hasn’t been kind to him. He has struggled to pitch with reduced stuff, but at the end of the day, he has blown just two saves all year (one being the Edouard Julien fiasco against St. Louis) with his FIP being basically identical to last year’s 3.22. His strikeout rate is down, but so are his walk rate and his home-run rate. He’s still a good reliever, and good relievers who throw 102 with low walk rates can get hot in October in a hurry. If he ends up being a liability, which is certainly possible, then the Twins won’t go anywhere in October--simple as that. He’s a roll of the dice, but what about the other AL teams? Do Yankees fans feel great about Clay Holmes? Do Oriole fans like the idea of Craig Kimbrel or Seranthony Dominguez closing games in October? How about the Royals with, um, Lucas Erceg? Even Josh Hader of the Astros has a higher FIP than Durán, and has allowed a whopping 10 home runs this year.

The Twins should be fighting for their playoff lives. But they aren’t, and have the luxury of being able to (more or less) coast to the finish line--where their top-end talent can shine its brightest. We might as well just enjoy the ride.