Soft September Schedule Could Be the Minnesota Twins' Saving Grace

[Nick Nelson]

Stretched thin by injuries and attrition, the Minnesota Twins have been in a tailspin, putting their postseason chances at risk. Fortunately, a favorable final month on the schedule bodes well as they battle to hang on and at least protect their wild-card position.

Image courtesy of Twins.com

It's a fairly dire time for the Twins. They headed into the weekend with eight losses in their last 10 games, and they're coming to grips with the reality that they probably won't be getting Carlos Correa back until the end of September, if at all. Not long ago, they were in prime position to make a charge for the division title, but now the Twins are being forced to adjust their aim and reconsider what is realistic. Winning the AL Central isn't out of reach, but feels far less achievable; above all, Minnesota needs to avoid collapsing their way out of the postseason picture. That would be a flat-out disastrous scenario.

The Twins led the Red Sox by 3 ½  games for the third and final wild-card spot entering play on Friday, with the Mariners and Tigers also within five. That is a fairly sizable gap with less than 30 games remaining. For this reason, FanGraphs still viewed Minnesota as having an 85% chance to make the playoffs. But that presumes the Twins will continue to play reasonably decent ball. If their performance from the past couple of weeks holds, they'll very much be in danger of getting passed up.

The month of September will prove decisive for the Twins and their rivals in the playoff race. Three key series -- one versus Kansas City, one versus Cleveland, one versus Boston -- could have pivotal implications in deciding the Central division and wild-card outcomes. All three of those series are on the road, which is not great. But the good news is that, outside of those 10 games, the Twins face a pretty soft slate of opponents over the next four weeks.

Here's a rundown of Minnesota's schedule for the final month, including the record of their opponents:

• 1 vs TOR (66-70, .485 winning %)
• 4 @ TB (66-67, .496)
• 3 @ KC (75-60, .556)
• 3 vs LAA (45-79, .410)
• 3 vs CIN (64-70, .478)
• 4 @ CLE (76-58, .567)
• 3 @ BOS (69-65, .515)
• 3 vs MIA (49-85, .366)
• 3 vs BAL (77-58, .570)

That's 27 games, and 14 of them are against sub-.500 teams. If there's one thing the Twins have shown they can do this year, it's beat up on losing clubs; they are 35-13 (.729) against such opposition. Granted,  the Jays and Rays are just barely below .500 and not to be taken lightly, but they aren't very good. Meanwhile, the Angels and Marlins are two of the worst teams in baseball.

Baltimore obviously stands out as a premier opponent, and they slaughtered the Twins at Camden back in April. But by this final weekend of the season, there would seem to be a very good chance the Orioles will be comfortable and solidified in their standing, either as AL East champ or the top wild-card, allowing them to take their foot of the gas while Minnesota makes a final push with potentially everything on the line.

If they can rise to the occasion in their head-to-heads against the two top teams in the Central, the Twins still have an opportunity to complete a dramatic division takeover, which would be nothing short of miraculous given their current state. Short of that, they can still wrap up a postseason berth by simply taking care of business and handling equal or lesser opponents. Their destiny is still very much in their hands.

Many things are working against the Twins as they march toward the finish line. Luckily, the schedule isn't really one of them.

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[Whitey333]

Nice article as usual Nick.  Your comment of may things are working against them seems true.  Their biggest obstacle seems to be themselves.  I think you give their September schedule too soft.  It  would be more difficult than you realize.  Actually if we don't start playing better consistent baseball it won't matter.  I think we will make the playoffs but for me it's not a slam dunk.  Buxton and Correa? Where are those overpaid guys just when it appears you need them the most?

[Aerodeliria]

The road schedule looks tough enough to me, especially with KC now breathing down the necks of Cleveland (both of them will be focused and at home), and TB being much tougher in their home arena, and other than Yankee Stadium, Fenway has probably been the toughest place for the Twins to get a series win. At Camden, if the Orioles are within striking distance, they're going to want to get all the advantages of having the best record in the AL, so this is no gimme by any means....

[JD-TWINS]

Baltimore/Twins series could be for the #1 Wildcard spot as well.

Tampa, at one game under .500 and playing at home will be formidable - that’s 4 of our softer games.

My assumption is that this mix is pretty comparable or even harder than most months. 13 of 27 games against clubs over .500 and all directly competing with Team for playoff spot seems very challenging to me. I know the view is mostly based on % but playing for post-season in September ratchets the competitive juices up and The Orioles on the last weekend makes me feel uneasy.

[FanFromTheBalticSea]

First Post here. I am reading here for about 8 to 10 years.

I will fly from Germany to attend the series vs the Red Sox at Fenway. Will be my first MLB Game in the USA and i am hoping to see the Twins win. Would be great, if they could extend their lead in the Wild Card Race and/or tighten the race for the division.

[CRF]

It's not tremendously "soft". True, it's not like we're playing the Yankees, Stros, Dodgers, Braves, etc, but EVERY series is important. That Cleve series will be HUGE. 

[terrydactyls]

Soft schedule?  Not to my eyes.  But rather than rehashing, just refer to the above comments.

[Doctor Gast]

I'm counting on the soft Sept. schedule & the roster being strong & intact. My main concern is the pitching being so thin for so long w/o being addressed. KC is w/o Vinnie which is a blow. I was hoping they'd keep pounding CLE for us. I'd rather face MIA early in the season than now. My hope is for BAL to start running away with the East so that by the time they face the Twins, they won't care.

[Blyleven2011]

Soft schedule or not , all I want to see is solid competitive games , win or lose ...

We are 35 and 13 against teams under 500 , the concern to me is we lose to the team's above 500 , it doesn't impress me that we beat the lesser teams , it would impress me if we beat the better teams and we have but not on a consistent basis ( phillies i think are the last winning team we won a series ) ...

Everyone wants the twins to win and go to the playoffs , because anything can happen  ...

Playing well at the right time  would be a positive going into the playoffs  if we make it  , bullpen , hitting and defense definitely needs to be more consistent, that's just the reality of it ...

[LambchoP]

Doesn't look all that soft the way we've been playing. Relying on the schedule and hoping for other teams to start losing is not s good playoff strategy. Twins are going to have to find a way to get hot and win some series. It would help a lot of we could get Lee back this week and then get Buxton back for the big weekend series against KC. I think the games remaining against KC and CLE will determine the AL Central playoff picture. We need our best players out there for all these games.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins have control over their own destiny which is a break. Meanwhile the Red Sox and Mariners need help while the Tigers and Rays are long shots.

Winning the division is still in reach. If Buxton and Correa can be healthy AND effective the Twins should be tough. The team needs timely hitting though and a prayer that Louie Varland provides an answer for the pitching staff. 

[saviking]

I call 10 away games with the three teams we are competing with for a wild card birth (KC, CLE, Boston): a come-to-Jesus month. 

[chpettit19]

Angels and Marlins are the only series I see that should be sweeps, and definitely can't/shouldn't lose more than 2 games to them combined. But the rest of those teams are pretty feisty. I don't see the September schedule as all that soft at all. At Tampa, KC, Cleveland, and Boston is 4 really tough series against teams that are by no means push overs. Baltimore is clearly a tough series, especially if they still have something to play for. And Cinci is a young team with some fight that could run wild on the base paths against the Twins. I don't agree that this is a soft schedule. The Twins need to figure things out and start playing much better if they want to win any of these series.

[David Maro]

This will not be a soft month for a team that gets 4 hits against a team that is out of the playoff picture.They have been up and down all year and are now hoping that 3 rookie SP can keep them in the playoff run.

Where are Correa,Buxton and now Lewis when the team needs a boost.And anyone who thinks Varland and Lee will be the saving grace has wishful thinking.

[AKTwinsFan]

Correa should look into surgery or something so he can be ready to play full time by next season. Buxton may want to check on a Rheumatologist for his symptoms, I have AS and it's similar to RA, I also get pains and swelling in knees/joints but I didn't start getting better till I tried Biologics. 

[mrcharlie]

3 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Nice article as usual Nick.  Your comment of may things are working against them seems true.  Their biggest obstacle seems to be themselves.  I think you give their September schedule too soft.  It  would be more difficult than you realize.  Actually if we don't start playing better consistent baseball it won't matter.  I think we will make the playoffs but for me it's not a slam dunk.  Buxton and Correa? Where are those overpaid guys just when it appears you need them the most?

Agree on all points.

Players who are considered team leaders find a way to gut it out this stage of the season.   Considering the precarious state of the Twins hope for a playoff role only emphasizes the need for leadership.  Correa and Buxton are more career minded than team players. 

[Brandon]

Buxton should be back soon.  He should not be out the rest of the year.  If he is back in time for the Kansas City series that would be a boost.  Kansas City lost 1 of their 3 big run producers so they are going to have issues the rest of the way.  
if Correa is out till the last week the whatever but the real key after getting Buxton back is gettin grand Slam Lewis going again too.  Having one hitter out on our team is not a big deal having 3 of our top hitters out or slumping hurts a lot.  
overall I feel good about our chances.  The pitching is good as are Festa and Zebby.  Varland needs to be in the pen now.  Really we just need that one more shut down reliever once we get Buxton back and Lewis out of his slump.  

[kroll]

I say we make the playoffs (do much there, I doubt it).

We go 500% at 14-14 = 87 wins (funny, while I'm typing this the Blue Jays hit a 2 run home run and were down 2-0 in the first inning). Whoops, another home run, down 4-0 in the first lol).

Anyway, I ain't quitting now......

Red Sox need to go 18-9.   7 games left w/ NYY & Baltimore

Seattle needs to go 19-8.   3 w/ Houston (pretty easy schedule left).

And Detroit has to go 20-6.    (5-0 now, in the first ouch!...) Whoops, now 7-0 in the first! They have 10 games left w/ Cleveland, SD, Atlanta & KC.

Thought I had a legit argument........ LOL...... Oh well I can dream right!!!