Twins Video
It's a fairly dire time for the Twins. They headed into the weekend with eight losses in their last 10 games, and they're coming to grips with the reality that they probably won't be getting Carlos Correa back until the end of September, if at all. Not long ago, they were in prime position to make a charge for the division title, but now the Twins are being forced to adjust their aim and reconsider what is realistic. Winning the AL Central isn't out of reach, but feels far less achievable; above all, Minnesota needs to avoid collapsing their way out of the postseason picture. That would be a flat-out disastrous scenario.
The Twins led the Red Sox by 3 ½ games for the third and final wild-card spot entering play on Friday, with the Mariners and Tigers also within five. That is a fairly sizable gap with less than 30 games remaining. For this reason, FanGraphs still viewed Minnesota as having an 85% chance to make the playoffs. But that presumes the Twins will continue to play reasonably decent ball. If their performance from the past couple of weeks holds, they'll very much be in danger of getting passed up.
The month of September will prove decisive for the Twins and their rivals in the playoff race. Three key series -- one versus Kansas City, one versus Cleveland, one versus Boston -- could have pivotal implications in deciding the Central division and wild-card outcomes. All three of those series are on the road, which is not great. But the good news is that, outside of those 10 games, the Twins face a pretty soft slate of opponents over the next four weeks.
Here's a rundown of Minnesota's schedule for the final month, including the record of their opponents:
- 1 vs TOR (66-70, .485 winning %)
- 4 @ TB (66-67, .496)
- 3 @ KC (75-60, .556)
- 3 vs LAA (45-79, .410)
- 3 vs CIN (64-70, .478)
- 4 @ CLE (76-58, .567)
- 3 @ BOS (69-65, .515)
- 3 vs MIA (49-85, .366)
- 3 vs BAL (77-58, .570)
That's 27 games, and 14 of them are against sub-.500 teams. If there's one thing the Twins have shown they can do this year, it's beat up on losing clubs; they are 35-13 (.729) against such opposition. Granted, the Jays and Rays are just barely below .500 and not to be taken lightly, but they aren't very good. Meanwhile, the Angels and Marlins are two of the worst teams in baseball.
Baltimore obviously stands out as a premier opponent, and they slaughtered the Twins at Camden back in April. But by this final weekend of the season, there would seem to be a very good chance the Orioles will be comfortable and solidified in their standing, either as AL East champ or the top wild-card, allowing them to take their foot of the gas while Minnesota makes a final push with potentially everything on the line.
If they can rise to the occasion in their head-to-heads against the two top teams in the Central, the Twins still have an opportunity to complete a dramatic division takeover, which would be nothing short of miraculous given their current state. Short of that, they can still wrap up a postseason berth by simply taking care of business and handling equal or lesser opponents. Their destiny is still very much in their hands.
Many things are working against the Twins as they march toward the finish line. Luckily, the schedule isn't really one of them.
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