The Minnesota Twins Have a Worsening Bullpen Problem. Will the Solution Come From the Rotation?

[Lou Hennessy]

The Twins may need to get creative as they try to find suitable options in the middle of their relief corps. That may force them to look to the starting rotation for answers, as they trudge toward the postseason.

Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Is it possible that we've been looking in the wrong place for a solution to the team’s bullpen woes? The general expectation is that Louie Varland will be the knight in shining armor that emerges over the hillside to provide necessary reinforcement as the club pushes toward the postseason. If last season is any indication of what to expect, that could very well be the case. But the Twins have another arm that could provide a similar boost--only, he’s a little busy at the moment.

Rookie David Festa is currently holding down a spot in the starting rotation, and he’s mostly held his own since his debut in late June. Many are counting on him, along with fellow rookies Zebby Matthews and Simeon Woods Richardson, to continue finding success in a starting role through the end of the year. But each of those three young arms is quickly approaching (or has already surpassed) reasonable expectations for increases to their respective workloads. And while they certainly appear to be the team’s best options to continue starting games in the near term, should they look into transitioning Festa to a relief role as the postseason approaches?

It’s easy to shoot down the idea based on the rotation’s needs, and realistically, the Twins could very well feel the same way. However, Festa’s offerings are the building blocks that make a strong reliever, and after a few more starts in the coming weeks, it could behoove the Twins to seek a way to scale his workload back, while keeping him as a key contributor.

Festa's three-pitch repertoire features a fastball that can touch upper-90s velocity, and two rock-solid secondary offerings that have underperformed at the MLB level thus far. Perhaps giving him shorter outings will allow for further success with his slider and changeup, since his opponents wouldn’t see them in multiple at-bats in a given game. That leads to the biggest talking point when discussing the effectiveness of a transition to the bullpen – his numbers the first time through the order.

When getting their first taste of Festa in a game, opponents have been held to an anemic .342 OPS, while striking out 30.2% of the time. Somehow, those numbers appear to be improving as he gets more exposure to the league. They're testaments to his sheer nastiness.

Just this month, Festa has struck out 39% of batters faced when going through the order the first time, which is tied for fifth-highest among all starters, according to Inside Edge. He has also allowed a paltry .147 slugging percentage in those instances this month, which is third-best in baseball. He’s racking up plenty of punchouts, and limiting damage when opponents do make contact. That’s an excellent starting point for this type of transition if the Twins decide to explore this route, even before getting any theoretical boost from being able to empty the tank in a shorter outing.

Festa has also started to show increased effectiveness against left-handed hitters, which is a soft spot with the current crop of Twins’ relievers--given the fact that Caleb Thielbar is suddenly their lone lefty. Festa has struck out 37% (16/43) of lefties he’s faced this month, and they’ve only mustered a .621 OPS against him in that time frame. That’s more than passable as a medium-leverage arm, and it could be just what the bullpen needs as they head down the home stretch of the season.

Of course, the question then becomes who will take Festa’s place in the starting rotation, and why wouldn’t they just keep him as a starter and move one of these other options to a relief role? Beyond Varland, the options that are sitting in the Triple-A rotation include Randy Dobnak and Andrew Morris. The team also added Caleb Boushley to the big-league roster Tuesday, giving them a stretched-out arm with plenty of starting experience.

Dobnak has a career 6.82 ERA in 33 innings pitched as a reliever, and his stuff has been absolutely hammered to the tune of a .331/.364/.538 clip when opponents see him out of the pen. Boushley hasn’t inspired much hope since joining the organization, and he has a 4.97 ERA for the season with the Saints. Morris is an intriguing piece going forward, and he is yet another archetype in the Twins’ strategy of drafting starting pitchers in the middle and late rounds of the draft, then tweaking their mechanics to amplify their development. But it’s hard to imagine them pumping Morris through that development, then throwing him into a playoff bullpen when he started the season in High-A ball. Each of those three options might make more sense as spot starters at the big-league level, should Festa move to relief.

At the end of the day, the Twins may decide that moving Festa (or any of the three rookie starters) to the bullpen would be more trouble than it’s worth. But there are a couple of glaring question marks in the relief corps, and the club should do whatever they can to address them before it’s too late. That may include looking to their encouraging rotation pieces for answers.

View full article

[Karbo]

They need to do something soon. I'm guessing they are trying to figure out a plan to ease the workload on the rookie starters as the IP are getting up there, especially for Festa and Mathews are already gone above their historical innings thrown. Sadly, they just don't have anyone else they can depend on to start a few games.

[mikelink45]

Boushley  shows their desperation.  Varland not in the pen right now makes no sense.  If he fails at least they have tried an arm that succeeded last year. 

I am amazed and disappointed that we do not think about RP in the minors - don't we have any that are successes?

[Brett]

This seems to be more of a playoff roster type of move, but our outlook does seem pretty desperate. Maybe pairing up Festa and the Dobber to get us 6-7 innings every 5 days?

[srlarson]

move Festa to the Pen now...bring Varland up to take his spot.....with it being clear he will move to the pen for the postseason....since we only need 3 starters for the playoffs...then you get both of them in the pen for the playoffs..if we can hold it together that long...growing experience for both of them...

[miller761]

What is Chris Paddock's status? Will he be back anytime soon?

[DJL44]

52 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I am amazed and disappointed that we do not think about RP in the minors - don't we have any that are successes?

They already called up Henriquez. Blewett and Boushley were performing the best of the rest. Topa has looked good when he can get on the mound. Zack Weiss started throwing again about a month ago and has been mediocre.

An average organization will produce about 2 players a year from their minor leagues who can contribute at the MLB level.

[Doctor Gast]

For decades our main problems have been the same. The burnout of our BP which in turn becomes more dependent on our rotation which in turn gets burned out. The effect is a burnout BP & rotation resulting in too many ineffective innings, injuries & worn out, coming into the postseason. Resulting in all those postseason losses.

Last season we had the quantity & quality in the BP & rotation where there was an even distribution of innings for all pitchers. Also, we didn't have any pressure from the other teams. Resulting in more quality innings, fewer injuries & more rested BP & rotation. This year even though they added a lot of RPs in the offseason & one at the deadline. None of them panned out. Together with the stumbles from Duran & Thielbar plus the loss of Stewart early in the season, all important high-leverage RPs. Depending more on Jax & raising Sands & Alcala in high-leverage situations have thinned out tremendously our BP. 

Our rotation took a hit by losing Gray & Maeda & didn't add anyone of significance outside the organization. Paddack was coming back from TJ & needed to be limited (no matter the hype), DeSclavani was in no way to be counted on, rookies Varland, SWR, Festa & Matthews all unproven MLB SPs. With #4 & #5 up in the air as far as the quantity of quality innings was concerned throughout the year. Varland didn't work out the way they wanted so to maximize the yearly total of quality innings. Instead of sending Varland down to AAA wasting his bullets, have him pitching quality innings on the MLB level in the long-relef/ spot starter role which he has done a good job. IMO if Varland was used in this manner, the BP & rotation would not be stretched, we'd have more quality innings & Paddack & Ryan would still be with us. With Paddack & Ryan still with us we'd have a ton quality depth in Festa & Matthews to be used in the long relief/ spot start role behind SWR. A ton of quality innings at our disposal. With a well rested & healthy BP & rotation.

[chpettit19]

Not sure how moving Festa to the pen to pitch fewer innings while putting an inferior pitcher in his rotation spot to pitch more innings helps the team overall during the regular season. He's probably fighting with Zebby for the 4th spot in the playoff rotation and likely loses that battle, but I don't get how moving him to the pen now helps the team overall.

[Road trip]

Not much question that the pitching staff is running on fumes, kind of like almost every Twins team in August for the past couple of decades.  There are some solid performers to be sure, but there aren't enough of them.  Hard to say whether the bullpen or the rotation is in bigger trouble at the moment.  Today I'd vote bullpen, but the answer could certainly change in a few days.  Moving a starter like Festa to help the pen is sort of robbing Peter to pay Paul... I'm not certain it makes the team better.

28 pitchers have been used this year, not counting Wallner and Castro in mop-up appearances.  That number seems likely to expand some more, out of shear desperation.  I suspect Tonkin won't be the last waiver wire pickup this year.

[LambchoP]

Sure it'd be better for Festa to move to the pen the rest of the year. Of course that just leaves a hole in the rotation though. Glad they released Okert and Richards, but there are going to be a lot of innings to cover the rest of the way. Festa and Zebby only go 4 or 5 innings, not to mention the rest of our rotation looking like they're burning out. Our lack of pitching depth is going to be magnified big-time. Varland and Winder to the pen should help, maybe Morris. Either way the pen is going to be overworked and most guys are going to have to go multiple innings. I really hope they address the pitching staff in the off-season. And for real this time, not the bargain bin signings like this year. We all saw how that played out. Not a single RP signing has panned out.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, srlarson said:

move Festa to the Pen now...bring Varland up to take his spot.....with it being clear he will move to the pen for the postseason....since we only need 3 starters for the playoffs...then you get both of them in the pen for the playoffs..if we can hold it together that long...growing experience for both of them...

Team didn’t get through the second round last year and needed 4 starters…….still think that’s reality unless the Series are abnormally short.

Pieceing together a fourth start isn’t an issue in October…..getting to October is the key right now.

I think they go status quo on starters and use Varland & Wnder in the Pen, ASAP.

[Beast]

You’re seeing what happens when you cheap out on the bullpen in free agency and sit on your hands at the deadline.

This is 100% on the FO and ownership.  Another absolute fail.  They sure have a knack of putting together promising teams, then failing to get them over the hump (see 2019 and last year).

This team is absolutely cooked.  IF they make the playoffs, they have absolutely no chance.  We’re seeing them reap the whirlwind now against good teams.

Duran is washed.  Outside of Jax and Sands, everybody else stinks.  And, not sure I’d trust Sands in the 8th inning of tied playoff game against the Yankees or Astros.

Theyre lucky Boston has played a brutal schedule lately, or they’d be looking at dropping out of the playoffs all together already.

The sad part is, the ragtag offense without a number of key players and the rotation have been pulling their weight for the most part.

[bean5302]

29 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

"Dobnak has a career 6.82 ERA in 33 innings pitched as a reliever, and his stuff has been absolutely hammered to the tune of a .331/.364/.538 clip when opponents see him out of the pen."

So wouldn't Dobnak also get hammered the first time through the lineup as a starter?  I'm not at all convinced that Dobnak is the answer here as a SP or RP.

I agree moving Festa is like robbing Peter to pay Paul.  I like calling up Winder and where is Hendrick?

Preparing for a start vs. preparing for a relief appearance is a different animal. That said, Dobnak's stuff doesn't seem to play at the MLB level.

Our infinitely wise front office sent Winder down so they couldn't use him for 15 days reminiscent of how they badly mishandled Alcala out of the gate this year.

[Lou Hennessy]

9 minutes ago, Beast said:

You’re seeing what happens when you cheap out on the bullpen in free agency and sit on your hands at the deadline.

This is 100% on the FO and ownership.  Another absolute fail.  They sure have a knack of putting together promising teams, then failing to get them over the hump (see 2019 and last year).

This team is absolutely cooked.  IF they make the playoffs, they have absolutely no chance.  We’re seeing them reap the whirlwind now against good teams.

Duran is washed.  Outside of Jax and Sands, everybody else stinks.  And, not sure I’d trust Sands in the 8th inning of tied playoff game against the Yankees or Astros.

Theyre lucky Boston has played a brutal schedule lately, or they’d be looking at dropping out of the playoffs all together already.

The sad part is, the ragtag offense without a number of key players and the rotation have been pulling their weight for the most part.

At least you haven't lost hope!

[Mike Sixel]

I have no idea how varland is still wasting his arm in the minors. Just not how I'd run the team, playing to win, rather than playing not to lose. 

[bean5302]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

I have no idea how varland is still wasting his arm in the minors. Just not how I'd run the team, playing to win, rather than playing not to lose. 

It sure feels like the front office has zero urgency. Laying back comfy because they have a lead on the Wildcard?

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I have no idea how varland is still wasting his arm in the minors. Just not how I'd run the team, playing to win, rather than playing not to lose. 

Well the reason he's there today is that he was optioned on the 15th and has to stay down for 15 days. He's not eligible to return until Saturday if my math is correct. Sent Winder down on the 14th so he could come back Friday. Will be interesting to see what they do with those 2 the next few days.

[LA Vikes Fan]

4 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Boushley  shows their desperation.  Varland not in the pen right now makes no sense.  If he fails at least they have tried an arm that succeeded last year. 

I am amazed and disappointed that we do not think about RP in the minors - don't we have any that are successes?

I think Varland will be back this weekend. He went down on 8/14 and Winder went down on 8/15. By rule, they have to stay in the Minors for 15 days before they can be recalled unless they come back as an injury replacement. They should both be able to come back this weekend. It will be interesting to see how this shakes out with Tonkin and Blewett replacing the two obvious DFAs, Richards and Okert. They can carry 14 pitchers starting Sunday so that gets one of Varland and Winder back. I wonder if the second will be at the expense of Blewett or Henriquez, or if Alcala or Duran gets a 15 day IL stint. Both look gassed and it does make one wonder if there's an arm issue.  

It is amazing that the cupboard is so bare for relief pitchers at the AAA level. We probably have the best ones either already up in Blewett adn Henriquez (still love that name), with Varland and Winder soon to follow. There doesn't appear to be much else there.  

[Mike Sixel]

Neither should have gone down. Imo.

[Sjoski]

 <<<It is amazing that the cupboard is so bare for relief pitchers at the AAA level.>>>

Twins are simply choosing not to pay for a bullpen, They'd rather pay two guys to watch the team fold up like a lawn chair than do that. 

(Together Correa and Buxton are being paid $48 million. Accounting for 37% of the team's entire payroll.) 

An entirely different conversation, but the number of injury prone players this team signs and trades for is alarming.

[Western SD Fan]

This seems more like 2022 than 2023. In 2023, standing nearly pat and depending on our IL to come back and heal up worked out. Whereas in 2022, there were too many injuries to overcome and we sunk like a rock as we were sucking air and looking for bodies to fill out a roster. While I don’t think we are at 2022 yet, we are approaching quickly and the upcoming series with KC or Cleveland may put us out of our misery.

[killebrewlover]

Pitching has always seemed to be an issue with the Twinkies.  Starting or relief.  It tends to amplify when offensive players are put on IR (more recently Buxton and Correa).   Put your $ on the Royals.  They are a legit contender.  The Twins are done.

 

[Coach Wheels]

9 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Boushley  shows their desperation.  Varland not in the pen right now makes no sense.  If he fails at least they have tried an arm that succeeded last year. 

I am amazed and disappointed that we do not think about RP in the minors - don't we have any that are successes?

Completely agree. In 23 Varland was dominant from the bullpen and could easily be a 7th or 8th inning guy right now. Why we continue to think he's a starter is odd.

[BillyBallLives]

When I saw Julien hitting 4th , I thought it was a typo....

He did get an RBI double....but agreed, very unconventional move. 

[MGM4706]

The FA Deadline was the time to fix the issue. Today the Cupboard is bare!

[Riverbrian]

Come playoff time it's all hands on deck. If we have excess starters... they will push out subpar bullpen guys. 

The designations of starter or bullpen no longer matter. 

They will most likely choose the top 3 starters to start games... maybe 4.

The rest go into a bullpen pile. 

[Linus]

Why would you move Festa to the bullpen?  His rotation spot would go to a worse pitcher. He’s also not pitched out of the pen. The premise makes no sense.