Bullpen Help On the Horizon for Minnesota Twins

[Ted Schwerzler]

Try not to roll your eyes too hard, but the Twins might just be getting the next-best thing to a big trade deadline addition in their bullpen: an injured hurler returning to infuse that group with high-end talent. (Hey! We saw that!)

 

Image courtesy of © John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

Try not to roll your eyes too hard, but the Twins might just be getting the next-best thing to a big trade deadline addition in their bullpen: an injured hurler returning to infuse that group with high-end talent. (Hey! We saw that!)

 

When ownership told Derek Falvey that he had limited funds to work with this offseason, Minnesota’s president of baseball operations had to get creative. To hit his budget number and keep the team where it was in 2023, the front office had to trade Jorge Polanco. Targeting Justin Topa alongside prospect Gabriel González, the Twins added immediately to their bullpen--or at least, thought they did.

Topa went through a normal spring training, but a nagging knee issue sidelined him to start the year. Instead of pitching at the big-league level, he spent months working his way to a diagnosis (torn patellar tendon, it turned out) and then rehabbing.

The Twins have been working Topa back through a process that kicked off on Jul. 23 in Fort Myers. He has since made four appearances for the St. Paul Saints, and he's looked great, with four scoreless innings and five strikeouts. Of course, it’s a small sample, but staying healthy after having been shut down during his first rehab assignment, it looks as though the reliever has turned the corner.

It’s fair to call Topa a late bloomer. He had pitched just 18 1/3 big-league innings before the 2023 season. For the Mariners, though, he worked 69 innings and posted a 2.61 ERA with a 3.15 FIP. Topa isn’t a massive strikeout guy, but his 21.9% strikeout rate is certainly workable.

Last season, Topa limited hard contact extremely well, and that’s big for a guy who also owned nearly a 60% ground ball rate. Batters weren’t able to square up his pitches, and that often allowed for his fielders to make relatively routine plays. Although Carlos Correa isn’t yet playing shortstop for Minnesota, an infield of Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Willi Castro, and Carlos Santana will like working behind the former Mariners reliever.

Now, a word of caution. Topa's extreme ground-ball rate is the product of very heavy action on his sinker, which he has sustained in his rehab assignments this year. However, the overall effectiveness of his arsenal also relies on his velocity, which ticked up to an average of 95 MPH last year. This season, in the minors, he's sat at 93, and hasn't even scraped 95.0 yet. That's a bad sign. So, too, is the strange change in the shape of his slider.

With an essentially sidearm slot, Topa has always had the unusual trait of a slider that actually defies gravity more than his sinker does, and about as much as his cutter does. Here's the scatterplot of his pitch movement for last season.

This year, though, that's going to an extreme, and with some unwelcome costs. His slider is now up over 5 inches of induced vertical break, on average, and it's lost some of the sweep it has had in the past.

Coming from the arm angle Topa uses, a slider that rises a bit more and sweeps a bit less is not a good thing at all. Hopefully, he's still merely feeling his way back. If he does return with a few ticks less heat on the sinker and this diminished version of the slider, he won't be any kind of relief ace, but he might well rediscover those missing ingredients. Even if he doesn't, he can be a useful depth arm, just as Richards and Randy Dobnak are.

Minnesota has the rotation chugging along. Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober all look reasonably reliable right now. Simeon Woods Richardson has continued to get it done all year. David Festa might be shoring up the final spot. If the bullpen can do their part, then the pitching staff as a whole doesn’t have to be held back just because the deadline came and went without doing anything of substance.

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[FlyingFinn]

"Even if he doesn't, he can be a useful depth arm, just as Richards and Randy Dobnak are."

 

Dobnak has appeared to be nothing more than an innings eater so far and not a useful depth arm.

[Doctor Wu]

Good article and details on Topa's arsenal. I knew nothing about him prior to the trade, but sounds like he was a good addition. At this point we can only hope that he is now fully recovered and can show us his stuff. With Stewart still ailing and Dobnak not looking very sharp, we will certainly need another effective arm in the month for the rest of the season. 

[dxpavelka]

Not only do Lopez, Ryan & Ober "look reliable right now" I challenge you to name a team in the big leagues with three better starters right now......

[Coach Wheels]

I'll give any RH arm a chance if it means the Dobnak experience is over. 

[jimbo92107]

If "gravity defying" is synonymous with "elevated," then Topa's slider does not exactly inspire confidence, unless it's in hitters. An elevated slider can go an awfully long way in the wrong direction. 

[JD-TWINS]

Have paid no attention to how he’s doing in St Paul - seems, from what he’s done in brief innings for Twins, that Ronny Henriquez would be a reasonable option v. Dobnak. Not sure that after 3 appearances and not quite 5 innings, that he should be on the 26-man. Dobnak’s ERA sits around 10.00 and watching him throw, it doesn’t seem to have much of a chance to go down much.

Been anticipating Topa’s joining the Team for 3 months or more ………the data on the slider for ‘24 doesn’t sound great, hope he can get back to form very soon!

[Karbo]

The Polanco trade sure has been a bust so far. A starter who hasn't and won't pitch this year, a reliever that again hasn't pitched yet this year, and a low level hitter that probably won't see the majors for a few more years.

[TwinsDr2021]

38 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

Not only do Lopez, Ryan & Ober "look reliable right now" I challenge you to name a team in the big leagues with three better starters right now......

Nola, Wheeler, Sanchez, Suarez

Gilbert, Castillo, Kirby, Miller

Sale, Fried, Lopez

Glasnow, Stone, Flaherty

Lugo, Ragans, Singer

 

Not saying all of them are better, but lets not over hype the Twins either.

[DaveW44]

He can take Dobnaks spot today. Like right away. 

[Blyleven2011]

As of now the article doesn't infuse alot of confidence  in topa , fastball velocity down , slider and sinker not as good as 2023 ...

When he's ready bring him up but not before , his pitches can get AAA hitters out but if his command isn't good , major league hitters are going to tattoo  him all day long ...

Let's hope it all gets worked out and we see the 2023 version  topa had with the mariners ....

[FlyingFinn]

55 minutes ago, Karbo said:

The Polanco trade sure has been a bust so far. A starter who hasn't and won't pitch this year, a reliever that again hasn't pitched yet this year, and a low level hitter that probably won't see the majors for a few more years.

Any yet the Mariners would cancel that trade in a second as Polanco is batting .212 with an OPS of .638.

[Rufus]

48 minutes ago, Karbo said:

The Polanco trade sure has been a bust so far. A starter who hasn't and won't pitch this year, a reliever that again hasn't pitched yet this year, and a low level hitter that probably won't see the majors for a few more years.

Polanco has not been setting the world on fire for the Mariners.  The Twins still have a shot at getting something out of it if Topa can do something.   Also they do have the prospects  Gonzales and Bowen.  which  could pay dividends.   I always like that the Twins get a prospect or two thrown in on their trades,  You never know,  they might work out our become good trade bait down the line.  I believe the Twins also have Desefani (SP) signed for next year too,  so who knows?   Keep our fingers crossed.  Obviously  teams weren't knocking the doors down with offers for Polanco.

 

[USAFChief]

6 minutes ago, Rufus said:

 I believe the Twins also have Desefani* (SP) signed for next year too,  so who knows?   Keep our fingers crossed.  

 

No, he's a free agent after this season. And thank god for that. 

 

*DeSclafani

[DJL44]

Topa has a knee injury (25% tear of the left patellar tendon) which could explain both the reduced fastball velocity and the different action on the breaking ball. If he backs off at all to favor his plant leg then his arm action is going to be mechanically different.

[USAFChief]

Every day there's another TD article on the soon-to-arrive bullpen savior Stewart/Topa.

 

[TwinsDr2021]

10 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Every day there's another TD article on the soon-to-arrive bullpen savior Stewart/Topa.

 

One of the times they will be correct, hopefully it is this time.

[mikelink45]

Wait and see - too many projections go wrong.  I want him to succeed, but I also wanted Dobnak to succeed.  And a few more that the Twins added and DFA'd

[SpicyGarvSauce]

This is comical.

The article goes from telling us that the Twins have bullpen help out the way, only to move onto the fact that Topa has diminished velo, stuff, and stinks.

[SpicyGarvSauce]

38 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Every day there's another TD article on the soon-to-arrive bullpen savior Stewart/Topa.

 

Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

[bighat]

30 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Every day there's another TD article on the soon-to-arrive bullpen savior Stewart/Topa.

 

There are tons of Twins blogs and Twitter accounts that do the same thing - a lot of "Just wait until Stewart gets back" type of talk, which to me is confusing. 

Brock Stewart has a career ERA of 5.00. In six MLB seasons, he's had two good ones. The other four have been bad or downright horrific: https://www.mlb.com/player/brock-stewart-592779

Topa has only had one good season (last year). 

Both guys are coming off what must be very serious injuries and they're 32 and 33 years old, respectively. 

I know we're all Twins fans here and we hope for the best, but this ongoing theme of "Stewart and Topa are going to save us" is absolutely ridiculous. Perhaps it's some kind of coping mechanism for people who are worried about the bullpen? To quote a recent popular phrase: it's just weird. 

[Jocko87]

7 minutes ago, SpicyGarvSauce said:

Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

It's right there, in the name. Daily, whether you need it or not.

[SpicyGarvSauce]

1 hour ago, DaveW44 said:

He can take Dobnaks spot today. Like right away. 

We are all here for the Dobnak experience.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, FlyingFinn said:

Any yet the Mariners would cancel that trade in a second as Polanco is batting .212 with an OPS of .638.

That trade was cursed from the start on both sides. I don't ever see Gonzales making the MLB at least not with MN.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Topa has a knee injury (25% tear of the left patellar tendon) which could explain both the reduced fastball velocity and the different action on the breaking ball. If he backs off at all to favor his plant leg then his arm action is going to be mechanically different.

He said he had problems with his knee last season.

[Doctor Gast]

You forgot to mention Giovanny Gallegos

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

In what universe is Dobnak considered 'reliable'...

[Rod Carews Birthday]

3 hours ago, Karbo said:

The Polanco trade sure has been a bust so far. A starter who hasn't and won't pitch this year, a reliever that again hasn't pitched yet this year, and a low level hitter that probably won't see the majors for a few more years.

The other side of that trade looks no better.  Polanco has been pretty awful for the Mariners and the money saved in salary gave them the means to pick up Carlos Santana.  It seems it was mostly an even trade, but the Twins still have Gonzalez to either trade or keep for the future.

[FlyingFinn]

2 hours ago, bighat said:

I know we're all Twins fans here and we hope for the best, but this ongoing theme of "Stewart and Topa are going to save us"

I don't think most of us think Topa is going to save us. We just think that Topa will do better than Dobnak or maybe Okert. I think most teams would gladly take our top four - Duran, Jax, Alcala, and Sands.

[Schmoeman5]

The headline was lacking a ?