Ranking the 4 Biggest First-Half Disappointments for the Minnesota Twins

[Cody Christie]

Minnesota had a terrific first half, and has a chance to win the AL Central for the second consecutive season. Unfortunately, not every player has lived up to expectations. Who have been the biggest disappointments?

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Baseball is a complex game, and players can see fluctuations in their performance throughout a grueling 162-game season. Some players exceed expectations for an entire season, but others have up-and-down performances, and still others fail to put it all together at any point. These four Twins players have struggled for different parts of the first half, but there is reason for second-half optimism in at least some cases.

4. Christian Vázquez, C
Vázquez struggled mightily at the plate through much of the first half, with a 44 OPS+ and a 21.9 K% compared to a 2.6 BB%. His offensive performance is below replacement level, but he provides other intangibles. He works well with the pitching staff, and still ranks as one of the AL’s top defensive catchers. Minnesota owes Vázquez another $10 million for next season, so moving on from him is challenging. The Twins love to use a catching rotation, and Vázquez may have shown some positive signs in recent weeks.

Reason for Second-Half Optimism: Since Jun. 1, Vázquez has hit .243/.270/.443, with five doubles and three home runs in 22 games. He has 13 strikeouts in 76 plate appearances during that stretch. Offensive performance is declining across baseball, so those numbers are good enough for a catcher. If he doesn't fall back into his May crater, he's perfectly cromulent.

3. Alex Kirilloff, 1B/OF
Kirilloff has dealt with multiple injuries in recent seasons, but he entered the 2024 campaign relatively healthy. The Twins had added Carlos Santana at first base, so Kirilloff was likely to see more time in the outfield. Offensively, he struggled to find the swing that had made him one of the organization’s top prospects. In 57 games, he hit .201/.270/.384, with an 83 OPS+ and a career-worst 26.4 K%. It was bad enough that the Twins attempted to demote him to Triple-A, before he revealed a back injury had been bothering him. It was a frustrating situation for the organization and player, especially since hiding injuries can hurt the team’s chances of winning. 

Reason for Second-Half Optimism: It’s unclear when Kirilloff will be able to return from his back issue. Even when healthy, the Twins will likely want him to spend time at Triple-A to rediscover his swing. Kirilloff is running out of chances for the Twins, as other players pass him on the team’s organizational depth chart.

2. Edouard Julien, 2B
Julien had a terrific rookie season, posting a 130 OPS+ while dramatically improving his second-base defense. Minnesota hoped he could build off that campaign and step into the full-time second base role this season. His bat struggled to start the year, though, as he hit .207/.309/.367 with a 91 OPS+ and a 34.0 K%. The Twins had other infield options, and demoted him to St. Paul at the beginning of June. He’s always been a unique player type, but the Twins hoped he’d be able to avoid a sophomore slump and prove he was a big-league regular during the 2024 season. 

Reason for Second-Half Optimism: Julien has a .457 OBP and a .418 SLG over his last 22 Triple-A games. Since the start of July, he has a .965 OPS, including three home runs in 11 games. He’s still part of the team’s long-term plans, and might be needed in the second half if injuries continue to impact the roster for the parent club.

1. Pablo López, SP
One year ago, López was heading to his first All-Star Game on the heels of a first half wherein he was one of the game’s best pitchers. After a strong finish to the season and a memorable October, many national evaluators viewed López as a 2024 AL Cy Young contender. He has failed to meet those expectations, as he hit the break with a 5.11 ERA, leading the AL in earned runs allowed. Despite his struggles, the Twins have remained in contention. To finish the job and repeat as division champions, though, they need López (who has failed to pitch more than five innings in 10 starts and allowed four earned runs or more in seven of those appearances) to recover his form. He’s supposed to be the team’s ace, but he’s been outpitched by multiple starting rotation members--and not because they've been unforeseeably brilliant.

Reason for Second-Half Optimism: Fans have heard this for most of the season, but López’s peripheral numbers point to him having a better performance than his results indicate. His 3.43 xERA is 1.68 points lower than his actual ERA. His Chase%, K%, and BB% rank in the 80th percentile or higher. Signs point to a turnaround, but he has not put it all together.

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Who should rank at the top of the list? What other player should make the top four? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[RpR]

Julien is fielding at a .932 fielding rate for the Saints, with a 30 percent K rate; hopefully , long, long time, if ever he is called back.

The Twins will regret, especially Gardenhire, the loss of Kemp who is .976 at 2nd base and is hitting .276 with a 13 percent K rate.

[Patzky]

I also present the top 4 Glad We Cut Ties list..

4. Jordan Balazovic. Yeah we have still have implosions but nothing like his..

3. Jorge Polanco. Injured and ineffective in Seattle. M's fans are not pleased.

2. Michael A. Taylor. Can't help but love the guy but he's not an impact player in Pittsburgh.

1. Kenta Maeda. Nick of time.. although he had a great bullpen appearance just before the break.

 

[minman1982]

I would probably give Royce Lewis honorable mention. When he has been in uniform, he has been great. The problem is he hasn't been in uniform that often.

[RpR]

3 minutes ago, Patzky said:

I also present the top 4 Glad We Cut Ties list..

4. Jordan Balazovic. Yeah we have still have implosions but nothing like his..

3. Jorge Polanco. Injured and ineffective in Seattle. M's fans are not pleased.

2. Michael A. Taylor. Can't help but love the guy but he's not an impact player in Pittsburgh.

1. Kenta Maeda. Nick of time.. although he had a great bullpen appearance just before the break.

 

Sad about Polanco; Taylor seems to have peak and low seasons, we got him at a peak. This year he is at a low.

[bean5302]

For those folks wondering what the heck xERA is, it's based on xwOBA. Pablo Lopez never seems to perform up to his sparkly expected metrics. Some pitchers outperform expectations consistently (Verlander) and some underperform (Lopez).

[RpR]

3 minutes ago, minman1982 said:

I would probably give Royce Lewis honorable mention. When he has been in uniform, he has been great. The problem is he hasn't been in uniform that often.

Lewis had a nasty slump before he went out this time; he has never played long enough to show if he is a flash in the pan or not.

[Patzky]

6 minutes ago, RpR said:

Sad about Polanco; Taylor seems to have peak and low seasons, we got him at a peak. This year he is at a low.

Maybe next year we can Rent A MAT.

[Joe Schmitt]

3. Jorge Polanco. Injured and ineffective in Seattle. M's fans are not pleased.

2. Michael A. Taylor. Can't help but love the guy but he's not an impact player in Pittsburgh.

1. Kenta Maeda. Nick of time.. although he had a great bullpen appearance just before the break.

Agree 100%.  Here's something that rarely is discussed:  making the right non-move. Wow, people were upset that we did not bring some of these people back.  The Twins got a ton of abuse (including on these boards) about that.  But they were absolutely positively right on all three of these.  The offseason was not perfect.  But it would have been a heck of a lot worse if we had not done the Polanco trade and had re-upped with Taylor and Maeda.

[DJL44]

Caleb Thielbar is the highest paid member of the bullpen and he had a really bad first half of the season.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Thielbar has to be up there for me. And no mention of Topa and Stewart with injuries being out completely, as well as not having Descalfani for depth.

I do see turnaround happening for Lopez. His secondary numbers are too solid to have an ERA that high all year. 

Julien and Kirilloff have to show they can do it at AAA to be considered again. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

21 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

For those folks wondering what the heck xERA is, it's based on xwOBA. Pablo Lopez never seems to perform up to his sparkly expected metrics. Some pitchers outperform expectations consistently (Verlander) and some underperform (Lopez).

And sometimes Lopez looks like a #1 pitcher.   

[Clare]

I enjoyed this analysis Cody.  I found it to be perfectly cromulent.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Vasquez is "perfectly cromulent" ?! Impressive vocabulary. I'm going to try to incorporate that into a sentence today. Many thanks for the tip.  

[LA Vikes Fan]

14 minutes ago, Clare said:

I enjoyed this analysis Cody.  I found it to be perfectly cromulent.

I would say it's beyond merely cromulent. Perhaps even commendable or, dare I say it, sublime.  

[thelanges5]

Left handed reliever group as a whole. 

[Shaitan]

1 hour ago, thelanges5 said:

Left handed reliever group as a whole. 

It's weird to me that they only carried 1 LHP in most of the LOOGY era, but carry more now. 

Eh, that's baseball in 2024 as compared to 2012, I guess.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

2 hours ago, RpR said:

Julien is fielding at a .932 fielding rate for the Saints, with a 30 percent K rate; hopefully , long, long time, if ever he is called back.

The Twins will regret, especially Gardenhire, the loss of Kemp who is .976 at 2nd base and is hitting .276 with a 13 percent K rate.

Tony Kemp over Eddie Julien, now I can truly say I've seen it all. 

[EGFTShaw]

Before reading this article I had

1. AK-19
2. E. Julien
3. K. Farmer
4. ???

C. Vasquez - has improved dramatically since the beginning of the season
P. Lopez - similar to last year, but I feel he is still a bit off.
 

[Doctor Gast]

I like your article Cody, in how you also added optimism along with your disappointments. But in your statement about Kiriloff.

"Offensively, he struggled to find the swing that had made him one of the organization’s top prospects."

To start the season Kiriloff was our top hitter until he got hurt, which correlates to when he started his slump. So he had found his swing, the problem was that he was put in a situation to get hurt & never said anything (which IMO understandable). So the solution isn't him getting his swing back it's keeping him healthy after the ordeal he has been put through. Put him at 1B/DH & keep him there as originally planned.

I don't get the pessimism.

[TwinsDr2021]

My 4 biggest disappoints are Wallner, Julien, AK and Lopez, with Lewis as Honorable mention (only because of injuries again)

If a player hits .223 with a OPS of .598 and then  .196/.514 really a big disappointment or just a bit under what was a expected?

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

46 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

So he had found his swing, the problem was that he was put in a situation to get hurt & never said anything (which IMO understandable).

Blaming Kirilloff's injuries on him playing the OF is one of the weirder narratives you continue to try and push. 

[gregens]

6 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Blaming Kirilloff's injuries on him playing the OF is one of the weirder narratives you continue to try and push. 

Kirilloff is a player I had high expections for.   I'm not going to pretend to know the whole story, but playing with an unreported injury (to the team) while underperforming is selfish.   Perhaps I have my facts incorrect, but that's what it looks like from what I've read.

[JD-TWINS]

9 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

Left handed reliever group as a whole. 

Okert is far from perfect but with a 3.86 ERA as a middle reliever, he’s not really out of line for the norm.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

10 hours ago, gregens said:

Kirilloff is a player I had high expections for.   I'm not going to pretend to know the whole story, but playing with an unreported injury (to the team) while underperforming is selfish.   Perhaps I have my facts incorrect, but that's what it looks like from what I've read.

It was when Joe Ryan did it last year, and it is again with Kirilloff this year.

I get it from their perspective, but at some point they have to realize how dumb it is. 

[Doctor Gast]

17 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Blaming Kirilloff's injuries on him playing the OF is one of the weirder narratives you continue to try and push. 

Thank you, coming from you it's a compliment. But for others who are reading this. Let me give you an example for a reference point to help you to put it into perspective: When Lewis needs a physical break from 3B & to keep his bat in the lineup, do they put him in the OF? I hope your answer is no. they'd put him at DH or if he can play 1B & Santana isn't there, they'd play him at 1B, for any amount of time. Why? Because OF is a much more physically demanding position than 1B/ DH. During the offseason before Kiriloff even started his initial conditioning in Jan. Twins stated that (due to 2 consectitive years of wrist surgeries & last year shoulder surgery) they'd restrict him to only 1B/ DH duties. Why? because 1B/ DH duties are much less demanding on his body (that spent 3 yrs, of surgeries, recovery & lack of muscle strength the follows surgery & lack of playing time) than OF. To begin the season Kiriloff's bat was hot & they needed him to more often than the shared time at DH.  Their Santana was at 1B so they were willing to sacrifice Kiriloff in the OF. Could he eventually suffer from soft-tissue injury just playing 1B/ DH? maybe but if they committed to Kiriloff 1B/ DH from the beginning, his injury would be greatly delayed, less serious & he wouldn't have to feel the need to play hurt to keep his job & aggravating the problem. Meaning less down time & less negative hype.

I don't call observing, rationalize & come to a conclusion that doesn't fit in the social media box as weird. I call it common sense. Majority of social media purpose is to endocrinate people with whatever means to their agenda, mine here at TD is try to get people to think & come to their own conclusion. You don't see me follow people that don't agree with me, so I can smash the dislike button & try to discredit them anyway I can. I leave them to their own opinions. But if they comment on my statement, I will respond if there is any sanity to it.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

19 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

if they committed to Kiriloff 1B/ DH from the beginning, his injury would be greatly delayed, less serious & he wouldn't have to feel the need to play hurt to keep his job & aggravating the problem. Meaning less down time & less negative hype.

This is pure, unadulterated conjecture. You have so many of these weird narratives that you push and push and push, very rarely do they ever pan out and yet you still manage to push them with all the confidence in the world when it's obvious you cannot possibly know the truth of the matter.

Posting weird conspiracy theories like this one and that Polanco wasn't performing well to start the year because he was "sad about being traded" isn't common sense.

19 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I will respond if there is any sanity to it.

The irony of this statement is killing me though hahaha

[Schmoeman5]

On 7/17/2024 at 10:41 AM, bean5302 said:

For those folks wondering what the heck xERA is, it's based on xwOBA. Pablo Lopez never seems to perform up to his sparkly expected metrics. Some pitchers outperform expectations consistently (Verlander) and some underperform (Lopez).

That's why they're useless. 

[Schmoeman5]

On 7/17/2024 at 11:02 AM, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

And sometimes Lopez looks like a #1 pitcher.   

Whos not being paid to look like a #1 pitcher sometimes. And it's not every 3rd or 4th start where he's not good. Instead, it's the opposite. Every 3rd or 4th start he might throw a gem. And the ACE hype Train starts rolling along.

[Schmoeman5]

15 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

This is pure, unadulterated conjecture. You have so many of these weird narratives that you push and push and push, very rarely do they ever pan out and yet you still manage to push them with all the confidence in the world when it's obvious you cannot possibly know the truth of the matter.

Posting weird conspiracy theories like this one and that Polanco wasn't performing well to start the year because he was "sad about being traded" isn't common sense.

The irony of this statement is killing me though hahaha

Don't forget the Noah Miller trade. Destined to be better than Ozzie. Ozzie Nelson maybe. And how many great young hitters who've been ruined by Twins coaching philosophy.  Yet it somehow hasn't affected others. Like Kirilloff. Whom he loves but still spells his name wrong.