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Baseball is a complex game, and players can see fluctuations in their performance throughout a grueling 162-game season. Some players exceed expectations for an entire season, but others have up-and-down performances, and still others fail to put it all together at any point. These four Twins players have struggled for different parts of the first half, but there is reason for second-half optimism in at least some cases.
4. Christian Vázquez, C
Vázquez struggled mightily at the plate through much of the first half, with a 44 OPS+ and a 21.9 K% compared to a 2.6 BB%. His offensive performance is below replacement level, but he provides other intangibles. He works well with the pitching staff, and still ranks as one of the AL’s top defensive catchers. Minnesota owes Vázquez another $10 million for next season, so moving on from him is challenging. The Twins love to use a catching rotation, and Vázquez may have shown some positive signs in recent weeks.
Reason for Second-Half Optimism: Since Jun. 1, Vázquez has hit .243/.270/.443, with five doubles and three home runs in 22 games. He has 13 strikeouts in 76 plate appearances during that stretch. Offensive performance is declining across baseball, so those numbers are good enough for a catcher. If he doesn't fall back into his May crater, he's perfectly cromulent.
3. Alex Kirilloff, 1B/OF
Kirilloff has dealt with multiple injuries in recent seasons, but he entered the 2024 campaign relatively healthy. The Twins had added Carlos Santana at first base, so Kirilloff was likely to see more time in the outfield. Offensively, he struggled to find the swing that had made him one of the organization’s top prospects. In 57 games, he hit .201/.270/.384, with an 83 OPS+ and a career-worst 26.4 K%. It was bad enough that the Twins attempted to demote him to Triple-A, before he revealed a back injury had been bothering him. It was a frustrating situation for the organization and player, especially since hiding injuries can hurt the team’s chances of winning.
Reason for Second-Half Optimism: It’s unclear when Kirilloff will be able to return from his back issue. Even when healthy, the Twins will likely want him to spend time at Triple-A to rediscover his swing. Kirilloff is running out of chances for the Twins, as other players pass him on the team’s organizational depth chart.
2. Edouard Julien, 2B
Julien had a terrific rookie season, posting a 130 OPS+ while dramatically improving his second-base defense. Minnesota hoped he could build off that campaign and step into the full-time second base role this season. His bat struggled to start the year, though, as he hit .207/.309/.367 with a 91 OPS+ and a 34.0 K%. The Twins had other infield options, and demoted him to St. Paul at the beginning of June. He’s always been a unique player type, but the Twins hoped he’d be able to avoid a sophomore slump and prove he was a big-league regular during the 2024 season.
Reason for Second-Half Optimism: Julien has a .457 OBP and a .418 SLG over his last 22 Triple-A games. Since the start of July, he has a .965 OPS, including three home runs in 11 games. He’s still part of the team’s long-term plans, and might be needed in the second half if injuries continue to impact the roster for the parent club.
1. Pablo López, SP
One year ago, López was heading to his first All-Star Game on the heels of a first half wherein he was one of the game’s best pitchers. After a strong finish to the season and a memorable October, many national evaluators viewed López as a 2024 AL Cy Young contender. He has failed to meet those expectations, as he hit the break with a 5.11 ERA, leading the AL in earned runs allowed. Despite his struggles, the Twins have remained in contention. To finish the job and repeat as division champions, though, they need López (who has failed to pitch more than five innings in 10 starts and allowed four earned runs or more in seven of those appearances) to recover his form. He’s supposed to be the team’s ace, but he’s been outpitched by multiple starting rotation members--and not because they've been unforeseeably brilliant.
Reason for Second-Half Optimism: Fans have heard this for most of the season, but López’s peripheral numbers point to him having a better performance than his results indicate. His 3.43 xERA is 1.68 points lower than his actual ERA. His Chase%, K%, and BB% rank in the 80th percentile or higher. Signs point to a turnaround, but he has not put it all together.
Who should rank at the top of the list? What other player should make the top four? Leave a comment and start the discussion.
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