Rockies 5, Twins 4: Varland Strong in Return, but Four-Run Sixth Frame Costs Thielbar, Twins

[MABB1959]

Feeling less optimistic about the Lopez/Arraez trade.  I think Arraez would have given the offense more than Lopez is for pitching.  lopez is making $8 million more with 5.45 ERA while Arraez has a .327 average with 18 RBIs which would rank him 1st in BA and 3rd for RBIs. 

[jorgenswest]

Nuanced isn’t helpful. At the time I was thinking…

• Varland had only has missed 8 bats.
• he hasn’t been very good for a while even in AAA.
• the offense gave no breathing room and the score is tied.
• His career OPS against the third time through is really high (1.109)

I don’t think those are nuances. Inept offense from the batters and a history of very poor results the third time through isn’t nuance. I think taking him out was the right decision.

I could have had less confidence in Thielbar but he his numbers had been pretty solid the last 6 weeks. Like his first outing of the year he wasn’t close to a major league pitcher last night. In those two outing he gave up 7 runs getting one out. In the 20 in between he has 15 clean outings and given 6 earned runs for an ERA of 3.52 and a FIP of 2.81. Maybe those 20 were just luck and he should have been released prior to last night.

[Doctor Gast]

Rocco pulled SWR with less than 5 innings, without the chance he could win the game in his 1st outing. The idea was to have SWR leave on a high note & not to jeopardize that. IMO it's the same idea with Varland on his 1st outing back with the chance that he could get the win if we scored & the BP held. That didn't happen, if it had everybody would be happy. No one knows if Varland pitched the 6th & blew up. Now that'd be a disaster. At least we have a good outing from Varland & him flying high.

I'd DFA Thielbar, nobody'd pick him up & he can work on his stuff in AAA. If he corrects what's wrong, great bring him back up. We can't afford him doing it up here 

[Whitey333]

Reading an analytical spreadsheet doesn't make you a good major league baseball manager.  Being able to manage a game is vital.  Rocco doesn't possess the skills apparently to do that.  Pulling Varland after only 63 pitches and five innings because he may have to face batters a third time is just plain silly.  If he was getting hit, even a little, it would be easy to understand.  But he had the Rockies eating out of the palm of his hand.  Wednesday day game is a MUST win.  Lopez needs to come through.  He has not pitched well most of the se9ason.  He SHOULD be able to beat the cellar dwellers.  This Rockies team is every bit as bad as the White Sox team.  

[OvertheHill]

On AK….he has only 2 multi hit games this year, one in early April, and one about 3 weeks ago. I think it’s somewhat driven by the fact that he gets jerked in and out of the lineup, but it’s pretty clear that he’s over (or in) his head right now. Personally, I think they’re wrecking the guy, and his window with the Twins is going to disappear pretty soon.  Obviously needs a reset but maybe he’s also the kind of player that needs some continuity, most do. I’m obviously not a fan of Rocco’s Million Moving Parts style. 

[JD-TWINS]

10 hours ago, gmwannabe said:

Rocco goes with his left on left  "match-up" when Varland has given up 1 hit with 60 pitches and the right handed batter hits a 3 run homer off Thielbar who has been awful. Shouldn't we try to actually win the game at this juncture instead of putting in your worst reliever because the Rockies led off the inning with a left handed batter?

How about the reliever not walking the guy & then grooving a fastball for a home run - how about some accountability from the veteran pitcher…….he’s been good at times, he was horrible last night & that’s not on the Manager. I can give up 4 runs and get zero outs. 

[Jocko87]

10 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Oh FFS. Let's impose a mental limit on a player, reinforce it, and never give the player a chance to disprove it. Company line BS.

Except nothing you said here is true or correct. This isn't how anything works but it's so fun to make random generalizations cloaked in internet anonymity.

I'd be interested to read a blog post with some details supporting your theory though. It often helps to put it on paper to sort it out.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

Nuanced isn’t helpful. At the time I was thinking…

• Varland had only has missed 8 bats.
• he hasn’t been very good for a while even in AAA.
• the offense gave no breathing room and the score is tied.
• His career OPS against the third time through is really high (1.109)

I don’t think those are nuances. Inept offense from the batters and a history of very poor results the third time through isn’t nuance. I think taking him out was the right decision.

I could have had less confidence in Thielbar but he his numbers had been pretty solid the last 6 weeks. Like his first outing of the year he wasn’t close to a major league pitcher last night. In those two outing he gave up 7 runs getting one out. In the 20 in between he has 15 clean outings and given 6 earned runs for an ERA of 3.52 and a FIP of 2.81. Maybe those 20 were just luck and he should have been released prior to last night.

Yes. Through some miracle of pitch calling or game plan or whatever they coaxed a great start out of Louie Varland. Don't push it too far and watch it blow up in your face.

[DJL44]

58 minutes ago, OvertheHill said:

On AK….he has only 2 multi hit games this year, one in early April, and one about 3 weeks ago. I think it’s somewhat driven by the fact that he gets jerked in and out of the lineup, but it’s pretty clear that he’s over (or in) his head right now. Personally, I think they’re wrecking the guy, and his window with the Twins is going to disappear pretty soon.  Obviously needs a reset but maybe he’s also the kind of player that needs some continuity, most do. I’m obviously not a fan of Rocco’s Million Moving Parts style. 

So you think Rocco should play a bad hitter even more often because he's been hitting poorly?

[mnfireman]

Just now, DJL44 said:

So you think Rocco should play a bad hitter even more often because he's been hitting poorly?

He kept sending Julien out there...

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, mnfireman said:

He kept sending Julien out there...

And you think that was a great decision?

[LambchoP]

Management needs to make some changes and finally hold players accountable. Theilbar is cooked and his replacement is in AAA in Funderburk. AK obviously needs a reset at St Paul. Give Wallner a shot. Better yet, Margot needs to go AND we've got a ready replacement in Martin ready to go. He even hits right handed, which is important to this platoon obsessed management. Get rid of Theilbar, Margot and Farmer. Call up the young kids and see what they got. If we want to compete we cannot roll out a lineup where half the team is hitting near .200 lol. Ps, Varland should not have been taken out, especially for our worst reliever in a tie game. The whole point of calling him up was to give our pitchers a rest!

[TwinsDr2021]

14 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

How about the reliever not walking the guy & then grooving a fastball for a home run - how about some accountability from the veteran pitcher…….he’s been good at times, he was horrible last night & that’s not on the Manager. I can give up 4 runs and get zero outs. 

It should have been 3 runs, no way he should have been left in to face the McMahon, I don't care if it was a lefty/lefty match up Thielbar had nothing last night,

Was watching the game with my son last night, and he was mad Varland was pulled, and I told him I understood the reasoning behind the move (While I disagreed with it, I understood), Varland was brought up to give the other starters a break (he did that really well), he has been terrible in the majors prior, and he was amazing last night and should leave him with confidence going forward.

What would have I liked, Rocco telling Varland you are doing great go out there in the 6th and keep doing what you are doing, I am going to get Sands and Theilbar up in case a situation comes up, but I have faith that you can get us another inning.

I will add this whole platoon thing, doesn't seem to be giving us fans hope on the future of some of the younger guys being solid everyday players. (Larnach, Wallner, AK, Julien) How many left handed platoon hitting Left and Right fielders does one team need clogging up the 40 man?

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, MABB1959 said:

Feeling less optimistic about the Lopez/Arraez trade.  I think Arraez would have given the offense more than Lopez is for pitching.  lopez is making $8 million more with 5.45 ERA while Arraez has a .327 average with 18 RBIs which would rank him 1st in BA and 3rd for RBIs. 

I was very sad after the trade was made. Arraez was the one hitter on the team that I felt was threat every plate appearance. 

Lopez has made me feel better about the trade. Despite what his numbers say this year. He's has real good stuff, he's smart, he's a valuable member of the starting staff and will be for years to come (Health Willing). 

I proudly wear my yellow Lopez jersey. 

However... Yeah... I really miss Arraez and our offense hasn't quite overcome his loss yet. 

 

 

[mnfireman]

13 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

And you think that was a great decision?

Absolutely not. It kind of goes to show what the team thinks of certain players though, allowing some to struggle horrendously for extended periods of time while others are sent down despite success or short struggles.

[OvertheHill]

27 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

So you think Rocco should play a bad hitter even more often because he's been hitting poorly?

No, I don’t. I just wonder about AK’s development as a hitter. Injuries definitely affected him, but my point is that maybe if he had a defined role or got better/different/any hitting coaching at the major or minor league level, perhaps we’d be in a better place with him. It’s painful to watch as is, so I’d advocate for him going down to St. Paul and work on it, hopefully with better outcomes than Wallner and Julien.

[Patzky]

11 hours ago, Patzky said:

Sadly Henriquez, Funderburk and Boushley all went multiple innings today for the Saints. And Eddy Julien 0/5 with three Ks.

 

Guess Jay Jackson could re-emerge..

I hate to be right, in this case.

[Ricky Vaughn]

I think the Twins are trying to turn AK and Julien into power hitters instead of letting them be high av. hitters with moderate power. They have them so confused trying to make them into something there not. If the Twins give up on them we'll see them become good hitters with another team.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

Nuanced isn’t helpful. At the time I was thinking…

• Varland had only has missed 8 bats.
• he hasn’t been very good for a while even in AAA.
• the offense gave no breathing room and the score is tied.
• His career OPS against the third time through is really high (1.109)

I don’t think those are nuances. Inept offense from the batters and a history of very poor results the third time through isn’t nuance. I think taking him out was the right decision.

I could have had less confidence in Thielbar but he his numbers had been pretty solid the last 6 weeks. Like his first outing of the year he wasn’t close to a major league pitcher last night. In those two outing he gave up 7 runs getting one out. In the 20 in between he has 15 clean outings and given 6 earned runs for an ERA of 3.52 and a FIP of 2.81. Maybe those 20 were just luck and he should have been released prior to last night.

1. What the heck does "the offense struggled" have to do with anything? 

2. Varland has 19.2 career IP "third time through the order."

Stupid decision to remove Varland, easily seen in real time. 

And made before the game even started.

I really can't blame Rocco for his choice of Thielbar. He can only use the tools in his toolbox.

Except...that a spent bullpen just adds more reason to let a cruising Varland go at LEAST one more inning started. Given options, nobody wants Thielbar in a tie game. 

 

[tony&rodney]

It seems pretty natural to be disappointed by the performance of specific Twins players and understandable that folks want the Twins to win games. Some people are suggesting changes that are a little severe. Sports fans are a little like that though, I guess. 

The comments make me wonder if people who have or once had a job that required exceptional skills, intelligence, training, and experience would accept the notion that any person off the street could step in and do their job. Could Baldelli take your place in your job today or the job you once had?

Decades of playing, coaching, and following baseball has given me a relatively thorough understanding of the game, but it was never my sole means of employment much less expertise. I do find myself at odds with some decisions by both players and managers, thus not attempting to correct anyone for their opinions. Levity is a good thing and it is useful to remember that as fans we have little to no experience relative to the knowledge possessed by professionals such as Rocco Baldelli. This doesn't mean that he is above reproach or criticism. There are 30 MLB managers which means that these guys hold pretty difficult to obtain yet surely impossible to hold positions. I'm pretty sure that no one who has ever posted, commented, or read on Twins Daily has anything close to the expertise of these managers. Baseball is entertainment for us and we should do our part to be entertained in order to avoid a sole focus on the negative, which puts a damper on the fun of following the game.

Please forgive me if this is too much like wishy-washy philosophy or something else. The people on this site are interested in baseball and I just wish folks would not let their interests in the Twins or game push them into a poor state of mind merely because of a loss or poor performance. It is a long season.

[jorgenswest]

15 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

What the heck does "the offense struggled" have to do with anything? 

I did not have confidence in Varland continuing with the top of their order. He doesn’t even do well seeing a batter a second time over his career. If the offense had provided a two or three run lead it would have been easier to send him out with the bullpen also getting ready. It is a tie game and little space for error. I thought the bullpen was better suited to keep the game at 0. I was wrong.

The context of the game is important. It isn’t only about pitch count.

[DJL44]

19 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Varland has 19.2 career IP "third time through the order."

Because he's been awful going through the order the 3rd time.

[bean5302]

Based on Varland's post game comments, he sounded very happy to get 5 good innings pitched rather than like a pitcher who had any confidence it would continue. I don't care about TTO. It's a myth reinforced by a methodology. xFIP rises more on STO than TTO.

That said, if the desire was to give some rest to the pitching staff like Baldelli talked about, you absolutely send Varland out there for the 6th inning so your guys can actually get rest.

I'm going to go even further on this. Varland was at 65 pitches. Why do players get better against a pitcher TTO? The argument is players see "x" number of pitches and they figure a guy out. Except Varland had only thrown 65 pitches so the opposing batters hadn't seen that many pitches to figure Varland out as thoroughly, right? TTO is such a garbage theory.

[$tryf4Life]

12 hours ago, darwin22 said:

Echoing comments of others, but the time has come for Thielbar to be DFA'ed.  Absolutely appreciate his grit and solid performance over the last couple of seasons, but the time has come. Its over.

Saying that, nothing will change as its "not the Twins way"

I sure would've liked to hear Baldelli's postgame explanation (not broadcast) for yanking Varland when he was working on a 1-hit shutout with only 1 walk over 63 pitches through 5 IP. 

 

 

Yea glad to clubhouse fully trusts Rocco. I sure don’t. He seems unaware of who is currently hot and cold. Feels stuck on last year. 

[USAFChief]

8 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Because he's been awful going through the order the 3rd time.

I'm not going to look, but I'd be willing to guess I can find posts of yours advocating not forming strong opinions based on 19 IP.

But now it's OK? Solid enough evidence to make a decision BEFORE the pitcher even throws a single pitch? Strong enough to disregard the actual results on the field? 

Varland has given up an .880 OPS against the SECOND time through the order, BTW. Why did Rocco let him do that?

It was a bad decision. A decision made long before first pitch.

That's not hindsight, either. Most of the folks in the game thread said so, real time. Before Thielbar's first pitch.

It wasn't hard to see.

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, USAFChief said:

I'm not going to look, but I'd be willing to guess I can find posts of yours advocating not forming strong opinions based on 19 IP.

I'm saying he's only received 19 innings because every time they extend his outing he's been terrible. They have every reason to keep Louie Varland on a short leash. I thought they were pushing their luck having him go 5 innings.

[Ricky Vaughn]

20 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

It seems pretty natural to be disappointed by the performance of specific Twins players and understandable that folks want the Twins to win games. Some people are suggesting changes that are a little severe. Sports fans are a little like that though, I guess. 

The comments make me wonder if people who have or once had a job that required exceptional skills, intelligence, training, and experience would accept the notion that any person off the street could step in and do their job. Could Baldelli take your place in your job today or the job you once had?

Decades of playing, coaching, and following baseball has given me a relatively thorough understanding of the game, but it was never my sole means of employment much less expertise. I do find myself at odds with some decisions by both players and managers, thus not attempting to correct anyone for their opinions. Levity is a good thing and it is useful to remember that as fans we have little to no experience relative to the knowledge possessed by professionals such as Rocco Baldelli. This doesn't mean that he is above reproach or criticism. There are 30 MLB managers which means that these guys hold pretty difficult to obtain yet surely impossible to hold positions. I'm pretty sure that no one who has ever posted, commented, or read on Twins Daily has anything close to the expertise of these managers. Baseball is entertainment for us and we should do our part to be entertained in order to avoid a sole focus on the negative, which puts a damper on the fun of following the game.

Please forgive me if this is too much like wishy-washy philosophy or something else. The people on this site are interested in baseball and I just wish folks would not let their interests in the Twins or game push them into a poor state of mind merely because of a loss or poor performance. It is a long season.

I don't disagree with you at all. However part of the fun of baseball is its the one sport where if you understand the game at all you can second guess the team management every game. We like to pretend were experts even if we know were not.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Because he's been awful going through the order the 3rd time.

Understandable

However... There are a couple additional points to be considered on top of sample size.  

1. If that's it... that's it. He's a no go 3rd time through the order based on his previous numbers. His numbers will atrophy at that level and therefore in theory... always be a no go. Can't fix it... If that's the case... it's going to be real hard to claim a rotation spot because those numbers won't change.  

2. Out of all his previous starts that led to 19 innings of poor third time through the order metrics. How many of them were a low pitch count like 63 pitches and 1 hit? My guess would be not many if any. IMO... When it comes to player management... There is one way to guarantee poor career metrics and make it impossible for a young player to carve out a career... benching them when they are doing well will make it real hard to build up that resume.  

I'm not saying he was hot at the time... I wouldn't know because I can't watch the game. I also want everyone to know that I'm not raking Rocco over the coals for making a manager decision. 

However... 63 pitches and 1 hit suggests he was doing very well at the time and if you can't let him come out for the 6th at 63 pitches and 1 hit... When can you? What is going to open that door in the future?

And I'll add that these decisions sure look scripted because the criteria for execution are pretty consistent... Much like... in comes the left handed pitcher... Here comes the right handed hitter.   

 

[SotaSports in NM]

I agree that Louie is terrible when facing hitters for the third time. He doesn't have any overwhelming stuff, and it's also been proven at AAA. I'm not saying that he, or others, should be automatically pulled after two times through, though.

Having said that, if there's a team that I'd want him to try to work through that against, it's the Rockies outside of Denver. Especially with their injuries. I think last night would have been a perfect time to see if he could go another inning.

But also, the offense did absolutely nothing by the time Rocco had to make that decision. He didn't necessarily have the luxury of risking Louie keep going through the batting order.

In terms of Thielbar, I don't think it's DFA time, yet. He's had a couple of bad outings amidst more good ones. I'm more concerned about Jay coming back up despite not really showing he's fixed things in St. Paul.

[MABB1959]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Despite what his numbers say this year. He's has real good stuff, he's smart, he's a valuable member of the starting staff and will be for years to come (Health Willing). 

Thanks for that!