Make It Official! Twins 6, Astros 1: Pablo López Overwhelms Astros in Breezy Win

[Matt Braun]

Is it that hard to beat a Texas-based sports team? 

Image courtesy of © Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Box Score
Pablo López: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
Home Runs: Trevor Larnach (5), Carlos Santana (8)
Top 3 WPA: Pablo López (.224), Willi Castro (.131), Carlos Correa (.097)
Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

 

“These aren’t the same Astros,” cried the ink of countless writers, unaware that their observations of a team that didn’t quell until Game Seven of the ALCS only fuels the terrible monster. For years, Houston has been a supernatural baseball force. Minute Maid Park curses all; playing in that park—under the superficial lights, drenched in a mildly stale aesthetic—feels akin to facing the final boss in a video game so unfair that most never even bother to play. Just ask Carlos Correa. The Astros should never be underestimated until the day they retire Jose Altuve’s number.

But maybe the prognostications are finally correct. Houston entered Friday seven games under .500. Their starting rotation is a sad imitation of themselves. Justin Verlander is nearly as old as JFK was when he took the oath of office. The sheen of intimidation that had followed those orange jerseys no longer strikes as deeply—can the Twins take advantage of their weakened foe?

---

For Pablo López, the game was a return to his greatest conquest; just six months ago, he climbed the same mound and fired off seven scoreless innings in the finest moment of Twins baseball since a random collection of misfits and weirdos made the ALCS 22 years ago. He was brilliant. The Astros had no answer.

He nearly matched that outing on Friday, albeit with quieter fanfare and a little less dominance. The Pablo López of May 31st, 2024, commanded his stuff well enough—to a point that usually earns a hurler a win—in a start that reversed the fortune of those that came before. His ghastly ERA fell, and inklings of the ace we fell in love with last year showed through; he ended the start with a lone earned run allowed and six strikeouts. Perhaps most encouraging, he shed a middle-inning mess and appeared to grow in strength as the start went on; the Astros never seriously rallied after the 4th inning. 

Minnesota kicked off the scoring with a third-inning skirmish. Not quite an ambush, the Twins plated a pair when Willi Castro led off the frame with a triple, eventually scoring when Correa slashed a double to right center. Alex Kirilloff beckoned home another run with a sacrifice fly. 

 

 

Alex Bregman brought the game within a run the following frame with a cheeky homer—it’s always the short home runs that feel the most insolent—before the Twins shortly ensured the Astros shenanigans of old would not wreck their lead.

Castro walked, Jose Miranda walked, and Trevor Larnach worked Houston’s starter, Ronel Blanco, for about a million pitches. Nothing he threw was good enough. Larnach spoiled more pitches than a crusty CFO. Finally, on the 9th offering of the at-bat, the lefty found a hittable pitch: a lethargic slider spinning mildly in the middle of the zone. The offering landed 401 feet away. 4-1 Twins.

 

The rest of the game was ancillary to what came before; Minnesota plated more runs as their pitchers continued to cruise, but a serious threat to their authority never came; all Houston could do was wilt. Carlos Santana homered during the muck. The game continued to slither and melt as second-tier relievers, only trusted in unserious situations, racked up the out totals, finally pushing the game to its assumed conclusion when Cole Sands punched out Mauricio Dubón.

Notes:

Carlos Santana's 309th career homer ties him with Edgar Martínez for 146th all-time.

Trevor Larnach's 25th career Twins homer ties him with Rich Becker, Robbie Grossman, and Denny Hocking for 84th place on the all-time Twins home run list.

Pablo López's six strikeouts give him 309 in his Twins career, good for 59th place on Minnesota's all-time strikeout leaderboard.

Willi Castro's fourth triple ties him for, ironically, fourth place in MLB for three-baggers hit. Jarren Duran leads with eight.

Carlos Correa passed Curt Flood and Eduardo Escobar (for real) in career RBIs with his 637 run batted in. He stands at 789th all-time in MLB history. 

Post-Game Interview:

 

What’s Next?
The Twins and Astros will play the second game of their series on Saturday, with Joe Ryan set to face off against Framber Valdez. First pitch is at 3:10. 

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

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[BH67]

Fretting over the ups and downs of Twins players is easy to do, and Pablo Lopez has encouraged such consternation over the first two months of the 2024 season. It’s therefore important to remember how high the ups can be, and tonight Pablo induced the top four batters of the Astros lineup (average OPS: .801) into only two singles and a solo home run in 13 at-bats. Several teams realize that level of brilliance from their best talent only rarely during a season.

Thus, I’m going to savor this, knowing that Pablo – and several other Twins – have plenty of “up” days ahead in 2024 even if the wheels come off occasionally. Two miles per hour less on a fastball or a slight negative variance in launch angle will matter if sustained over time, but letting that become a dominant narrative isn’t worth my energy.
 

[USAFChief]

Pretty nice way to start the road trip. 

[blairpaul715]

A little surprised they didn't use Staumont tonight. Are they planning on using him for more middle to higher leverage situations??? Sands had just pitched two days ago. 

[Dman]

Nice to see Okert and Sands come through with drama free innings and cap off the win.  Giving the main guys a rest was much needed.

For as much I don't feel like Okert is very dominant his ERA is 2.86 (although FIP &xFIP see it a run higher).  HIs K rate is ok and even though he walks too many guys he has brought his WHIP down to 1.26.  For what ever reason I always feel like I am squirming when he is pitching, but that is a pretty decent line for a Lefty.  Hope he looks even better as the year goes on.

[Matt Braun]

5 minutes ago, blairpaul715 said:

A little surprised they didn't use Staumont tonight. Are they planning on using him for more middle to higher leverage situations??? Sands had just pitched two days ago. 

I imagine getting Sands some mojo against a weaker part of Houston's lineup matters more than using Staumont just for the sake of it. Just my two cents, though. 

[tony&rodney]

Okert has struggled when he comes into games with any runners on base. He lets the previous pitcher's baserunners score and then shuts the inning down. Maybe Okert is a guy who is only successful when he starts a clean inning.

[blindeke]

Rested bullpen. I like it.

[Parfigliano]

26 minutes ago, Matt Braun said:

I imagine getting Sands some mojo against a weaker part of Houston's lineup matters more than using Staumont just for the sake of it. Just my two cents, though. 

Im glad they went to Sands instead of Staumont with a 6-1 lead.

[Tiantwindup]

Matt, brilliantly written; but for you that is the norm  

 

 

[CRF]

Great to see Lopez get back on track. Nice win!

[Peter]

Great win to start road trip!!! Go twins!!!

[terrydactyls]

9 hours ago, BH67 said:

Fretting over the ups and downs of Twins players is easy to do, and Pablo Lopez has encouraged such consternation over the first two months of the 2024 season. It’s therefore important to remember how high the ups can be, and tonight Pablo induced the top four batters of the Astros lineup (average OPS: .801) into only two singles and a solo home run in 13 at-bats. Several teams realize that level of brilliance from their best talent only rarely during a season.

Thus, I’m going to savor this, knowing that Pablo – and several other Twins – have plenty of “up” days ahead in 2024 even if the wheels come off occasionally. Two miles per hour less on a fastball or a slight negative variance in launch angle will matter if sustained over time, but letting that become a dominant narrative isn’t worth my energy.
 

The top four Astro batters had 16 official at bats, not 13.  Pablo did even better than you implied.

[BH67]

19 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

The top four Astro batters had 16 official at bats, not 13.  Pablo did even better than you implied.

Yes. But Okert retired the last three in the 8th.

[Whitey333]

One good outing in the past 5 for Lopez.   Let's see him string a few GOOD outings together.  That's what he's paid 18 million per year for.  We need him.  Go Twins.

[William K Johnson]

Miranda's defense at third would be comical if he played for someone else.      How much longer until Lewis is back?

[jmlease1]

Lopez looked great last night. I don't care if some of those guys from Houston have been playing this season to date, they still scare me, and he shut them down nicely.

Great to see guys taking good ABs last night, fouling off pitches and making their starter really work. Eventually, the Twins were going to get some breaks and have hits come through with runners on base too.

Exactly the right way to start the series, and I'm glad Okert and Sands were able to finish it off with no drama. Good to give Duran and Jax some additional days off.

[terrydactyls]

52 minutes ago, BH67 said:

Yes. But Okert retired the last three in the 8th.

Good point!

[mikelink45]

What a refreshing and encouraging game!  Players who are in consideration for demotion to get Lewis in place did well, Pablo looked like the pitcher we hope for and the team just looked good. 

[LambchoP]

It's been fun to watch Miranda and Larnach hitting their tails off like they don't want to be sent down anytime soon. Julien looks absolutely lost at the plate and I think he really needs a reset in AAA.

[bean5302]

Glad to see a good start from Lopez as he could certainly use a few more. He hasn't been a consistent pitcher across his career, more a low end #2 or high end #3 than anything else. 

ERA / FIP, Percentage of Starts at 4.00 or less ERA 5.0+ innings
4/22 - 0.39 ERA / 1.66 FIP, 100% Starts
5/22 - 2.78 ERA / 3.73 FIP, 60% Starts
6/22 - 5.34 ERA / 4.65 FIP, 20% Starts
7/22 - 4.65 ERA / 3.92 FIP, 67% Starts
8/22 - 4.61 ERA / 4.43 FIP, 60% Starts
9/22 - 4.24 ERA / 3.55 FIP, 50% Starts
4/23 - 4.00 ERA / 2.87 FIP, 67% Starts
5/23 - 4.25 ERA / 2.51 FIP, 60% Starts
6/23 - 4.46 ERA / 2.40 FIP, 33% Starts
7/23 - 3.71 ERA / 3.82 FIP, 75% Starts
8/23 - 2.00 ERA / 3.37 FIP, 83% Starts
9/23 - 3.68 ERA / 2.71 FIP, 40% Starts
4/24 - 4.83 ERA / 3.92 FIP, 33% Starts
5/24 - 4.84 ERA / 3.70 FIP, 50% Starts

He's doing just about what a person should expect he'd do based on his career.

[jorgenswest]

8 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

He hasn't been a consistent pitcher across his career, more a low end #2 or high end #3 than anything else.

Does that mean he would rank in the 55 to 65 range among starting pitchers over the last few years?

[bean5302]

11 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Does that mean he would rank in the 55 to 65 range among starting pitchers over the last few years?

Depends on the metric, and the sample as to where he's going to rank. He's got a career 3.95 ERA. Bailey Ober's is 3.84. Joe Ryan is 3.87. Chris Paddack is 4.27.

[Jeff K]

11 hours ago, blairpaul715 said:

A little surprised they didn't use Staumont tonight. Are they planning on using him for more middle to higher leverage situations??? Sands had just pitched two days ago. 

I am curious about that as well.  Staumont hasn't been used much, but has looked really good!  It seems like he and Alcala ought to be seeing higher leverage opportunities.

[Jeff K]

10 hours ago, Tiantwindup said:

Matt, brilliantly written; but for you that is the norm  

 

 

This quote, in particular, was fun to read!

[jorgenswest]

59 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Depends on the metric, and the sample as to where he's going to rank. He's got a career 3.95 ERA. Bailey Ober's is 3.84. Joe Ryan is 3.87. Chris Paddack is 4.27.

I would probably use WAR because that will also reflect a sustained contribution.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

I would probably use WAR because that will also reflect a sustained contribution.

Using bWAR, Lopez has 12.2 WAR in his career, spanning roughly 6 seasons. 2 WAR pitchers are commonplace. There were about 75 of them last year. Over the past 3 seasons, Lopez has been roughly a 3 WAR pitcher. About 40-45 of those per year or so.

[jorgenswest]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Using bWAR, Lopez has 12.2 WAR in his career, spanning roughly 6 seasons. 2 WAR pitchers are commonplace. There were about 75 of them last year. Over the past 3 seasons, Lopez has been roughly a 3 WAR pitcher. About 40-45 of those per year or so.

rWAR rank among starters

2022 40th, 2023 27th

fWAR rank among starters

2022 47th, 2023 10th

Fangraphs was easy to combine through today (no minimum innings were set)

2022-2024, 16th

[bean5302]

17 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

rWAR rank among starters

2022 40th, 2023 27th

fWAR rank among starters

2022 47th, 2023 10th

Fangraphs was easy to combine through today (no minimum innings were set)

2022-2024, 16th

Like I said. 40-45 3 WAR pitchers per year. Lopez has been a 3 WAR pitcher recently.

[jorgenswest]

33 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Like I said. 40-45 3 WAR pitchers per year. Lopez has been a 3 WAR pitcher recently.

Should ranks ranging 10 through 47 and overall 16 put him in the low end 2nd or high end 3rd starter range?