Make It Official! Twins 6, Astros 1: Pablo López Overwhelms Astros in Breezy Win

[bean5302]

31 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Should ranks ranging 10 through 47 and overall 16 put him in the low end 2nd or high end 3rd starter range?

Yes, based on the garbage metrics you're using. fWAR is junk if you're comparing several years for a pitcher. It's best used for explaining anomaly performances or predicting future performances. It's not based on what actually happened.

Comparing multiple years of performances means you're comparing Lopez (who played all 3 years) to pitchers who left MLB or were rookies or were hurt. It's not apples to apples. If Lopez missed the rest of this season due to injury, would he then become a #4 or #5 pitcher if I selected 2023-2024 as the range of comparison where he was hurt?

In any given year, Lopez's ACTUAL results place him in the 40-45 range for value which includes accumulated value of pitchers who've been injured or played less than Lopez has. On the mound, he gives the Twins performances typically on par with low end #2s.

[jorgenswest]

26 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Yes, based on the garbage metrics you're using. fWAR is junk if you're comparing several years for a pitcher. It's best used for explaining anomaly performances or predicting future performances. It's not based on what actually happened.

Comparing multiple years of performances means you're comparing Lopez (who played all 3 years) to pitchers who left MLB or were rookies or were hurt. It's not apples to apples. If Lopez missed the rest of this season due to injury, would he then become a #4 or #5 pitcher if I selected 2023-2024 as the range of comparison where he was hurt?

In any given year, Lopez's ACTUAL results place him in the 40-45 range for value which includes accumulated value of pitchers who've been injured or played less than Lopez has. On the mound, he gives the Twins performances typically on par with low end #2s.

I think I used both. Using both prevents me from simply choosing the one that fits my narrative. Restricting to rWAR. It ranks him at 27th and 40th among starting pitchers in the previous two seasons. Should I expect that in a low end number 2 and a high end 3? I would have thought that should be around 60th.