Ranking the Worst Free Agent Signings for the Minnesota Twins Since 2017

[Cody Christie]

The Twins hired Derek Falvey and Thad Levine in November 2016, and their stamp is clearly on the organization. So, what have been the club’s worst free agent signings under their tenure?

Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski, Scott Taetsch, Denny Medley -USA TODAY Sports

Christian Vázquez is nearly halfway done with his three-year, $30 million contract, and his performance has been subpar in a Twins uniform. At the time, it was easy to see the reasoning behind the front office targeting one of the best free-agent catchers. Ryan Jeffers had struggled in 2022 (86 OPS+), so the club wanted someone who could step into a regular catching role. Hindsight is 20/20, and the team would likely want to be out from under his contract at this point. Where does the Vázquez contract rank among this front-office regime's worst free-agent signings?

Honorable Mention: Dylan Bundy (-0.2 rWAR), Addison Reed (0.0 rWAR), Lance Lynn (0.1 rWAR), Logan Morrison (-0.2 rWAR), J.A. Happ (-1.8 rWAR)

5. Josh Donaldson
rWAR: 3.7
The Twins signed Donaldson to a four-year, $92 million contract in January 2020. He provided the most value out of the players on this list, but he wasn’t worth $21.75 million per season. Minnesota’s front office had initially planned to target front-line starting pitching with the team’s payroll flexibility and pivoted to Donaldson after the top-tier starters had already signed. Thankfully, the Twins were able to dump the final two years of the contract on the Yankees, including the $8 million buyout of his contract option. The front office thought Donaldson could be a veteran presence to push the team to the next level, but that never came to fruition. 

4. Andrelton Simmons
rWAR: -0.1
Simmons is one of the best defensive shortstops in MLB history, and the Twins hoped he could bring that elite skillset to the team. He signed a one-year, $10.5 million deal leading into the 2021 season. His offensive performance had typically been slightly below average, but it fell off a cliff with Minnesota to the point he was nearly unplayable. In 131 games, he posted a 57 OPS+ and saw his defense take a step back too. Also, he became a clubhouse distraction for his vocal stance against the COVID-19 vaccine before testing positive himself. The Twins hoped Simmons could be a one-year stopgap at shortstop, but there were better ways to spend his contract. 

3. Christian Vázquez
rWAR: -0.7
Vázquez still has a year and a half left on his three-year, $30 million deal, so there is time for him to accumulate value and fall off this list. He continues to provide solid defensive numbers, including ranking in the 79th percentile or higher in Fielding Run Value and Framing. During the offseason, rumors circulated that the Twins attempted to trade veteran players to cut payroll. However, the front office loves to use a two-catcher rotation, which has continued this season despite Vázquez’s poor offensive performance. He has caught a lot of innings during his career, and the end of his contract might not be pretty. 

2. Alex Colomé
rWAR: -0.7
Hopes were high for the 2021 Twins after back-to-back AL Central titles, and the front office added Colomé to be a veteran presence in the bullpen. He combined for a 2.27 ERA (201 ERA+) and a 1.03 WHIP in the two seasons before signing with the Twins. His first month was a disaster as he allowed eight earned runs in 8 2/3 innings while being charged with three blown saves. He had a -2.2 WPA in April as he nearly single-handedly took the Twins out of contention by the month’s end. Colomé settled in after the first month with a 3.51 ERA and a 1.05 WPA for the remainder of the season, but the damage had already been done.  

1. Matt Shoemaker
rWAR: -1.8
Minnesota’s failure to develop starting pitching forced the front office to sign cheap veteran options to fill rotation holes. Shoemaker and J.A. Happ were brought in during the same offseason and posted the exact rWAR total, but Shoemaker ranks higher for multiple reasons. He had an 11-game stretch from April 11- June 11, where he posted an 8.10 ERA with opponents combining for a .905 OPS. He was removed from the rotation before struggling as a reliever, too. Minnesota demoted him to Triple-A where he voiced his concerns about the alterations the coaches attempted with him during the season. The Twins released him on August 2, and his big-league career ended abruptly. 

Nearly every player on this list fit a specific role for the Twins when the team targeted them in free agency. Unfortunately, Minnesota is rarely in the market for the best available players, especially with ownership's self-imposed payroll limits. Free agency can force some teams to make poor investments, but those chances are even higher when a front office is forced to shop in the bargain bin. 

Who should rank in the top five for worst free agent signings by this regime? Does someone else need to make the list? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Cory Engelhardt]

Andrelton has to be #1 though right. Oof was that bad. Signing him to be the starting SS and that's what they brought.

[LambchoP]

Buxton?

[DJL44]

None of these are that bad. Most are only 1 year deals which helps. They also were able to mitigate the downside on the Donaldson contract.

Look at Colorado's signing of Kris Bryant which will devastate their franchise for the length of the contract. That's a terrible free agent deal.

[CRF]

Wow! Not sure I'd know where to begin on this one. 

[NYCTK]

Matt was bad but his contract was nothing. Carlos Santana is arguably a worse signing. I wouldn't argue it, but someone could. 

[TwinsDr2021]

No Gallo?

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I'm sorry I read your article, because I'm having flashbacks to some malcontents, (Lance Lynn, Simmons, Shoemaker and  the worst:  "The Rainmaker himself, Josh Donaldson). These were awful signings due largely to the attitudes of these players, causing problems in the clubhouse and on the field. I am so very glad to see that the FO has learned from its mistakes and now "Positive attitude" is a something which the FO acknowledges as being an important component of hires. "Minnesota nice" is not just an idle phrase. It means something important to me as a 70-year fan of this franchise, even though I live in North Carolina.

[Linus]

If the money is small enough that you can walk away from it then it’s not so bad. Donaldson was the worst in my opinion as it was a lot of money and it didn’t make sense at the time. Thankfully the FO slithered out of that deal with only minor pain. 

[Sssuperdave]

I don't think I'd include Donaldson on this list.  For me, the best part of the Donaldson signing was that it showed the Twins were willing to spend real money on a free agent from outside the organization.  Big contracts like that rarely provide as much value per $ as smaller contracts, but they are necessary sometimes for a team to compete with the big spenders.  He was hurt for most of 2020 but had a pretty good year stats-wise in 2021.  Certainly not worth the $40M they paid him over those two years, but it's not like he was 2017 -2021 Albert Pujols.

 

I think the flip side to my argument is that Donaldson's attitude/approach may have had a negative impact on the rest of the team.  Probably don't want to open that can of worms again though.  Well, maybe I just did.  🤭

[Karbo]

I have to go with Gallo.

[TwinsDr2021]

I get the hate for Donaldson, he only played 28 of 60 games in 2020 but did produce a .842 OPS, in 21 he played 135 games and produced a .827 OPS, yes both of those are lowered than we hoped. and in a year and a half had a WAR of 3.7 and had OPS+ of 132 and 127.

Bundy for example was allowed to pitch 140 innings with a negative WAR.

How much was Pineda paid to produce 4.6 WAR over 4 years?

[Vanimal46]

A guy with an .829 OPS and 3.7 WAR in 163 games is the 5th worst signing? The revisionist history about Donaldson on TD is insane. 

Am I glad about trading him away when we did? Absolutely. But he wasn’t a huge problem while he played on the Twins. 

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I have to go with Gallo.

Gallo was a bad signing when it was announced. The last thing the Twins needed on the roster was another LH outfield bat. His performance was as bad as most predicted.

[jmlease1]

Gallo was a bad signing, but he at least added 0.5 bWAR with that hot start to the season. Those games count too.

Donaldson shouldn't be on the list; he actually produced about like we thought he would. The bigger issue was he got hurt by the time playoffs rolled around in 2020 and the team wasn't competitive in 2021. It just didn't synch up right. We were correct to move off him in 2022, but the signing itself isn't close to top five bad.

I'd give the last slot to Happ. He sucked for us, and didn't work out at all.

[FritzDahmus]

No Jorge Lopez???

[Brett]

I still have PTSD from 2021. Happ, Shoemaker, Simmons, year 2 of Donaldson…I need to lay down for a minute.

[mickster]

I give you   Tsuyoshi Nishioka

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, FritzDahmus said:

No Jorge Lopez???

That was a bad trade, not a bad free agent. 🤣

[DJL44]

7 minutes ago, mickster said:

I give you   Tsuyoshi Nishioka

5 years before the cutoff here

[mickster]

16 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

5 years before the cutoff here

I realized that after I posted.........

[Tjwalsh65]

1 hour ago, FritzDahmus said:

No Jorge Lopez???

That was a trade.   

[Doctor Gast]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

None of these are that bad. Most are only 1 year deals which helps. They also were able to mitigate the downside on the Donaldson contract.

Look at Colorado's signing of Kris Bryant which will devastate their franchise for the length of the contract. That's a terrible free agent deal.

Agreed, because of that I'd rate my

#1 as Donaldson- his production wasn't bad but his salary killed us & devasted our catching corp to appropiate.

#2 Park- he never adjusted

#3 Shoemaker

#4 Happ

#5 Gallo

#6 Lynn- he was a good signing but being disgruntled made it bad

All other signings were good signings but poorly managed. Colume if used in lower leverage 1st instead of being showcased extensively as our closer, he'd have been fine. Bundy was signed as a piggy-back pitcher, in limited innings he was very good but they later decided that all SPs needed to go 7. Being overextended his pitching went down hill. Simmons was a great signing. W/o spring training, he provided great defense & before he went down because of covid he was having a career hitting season. But during his IL stint, they "properly" trained him & after his return he was absolutely terrible.  The Vazquez signing was very good. Besides providing great defense, it took the burden off Jeffers's shoulders so he could lift himself up from the ashes to be a 1st class hitting catcher.

[Vanimal46]

1 minute ago, Doctor Gast said:

#1 as Donaldson- his production wasn't bad but his salary killed us

In what way did his salary kill us? He was a late signing after striking out on pitching free agents. 

[bean5302]

Topics like these are really difficult to analyze. Evaluating free agent signings is more than just dollars paid or WAR, etc. The player's fit on the team's needs, and what position they were supposed to occupy, what expectations were, and whether or not the player remained on the team could be taken into consideration.

I still like the Bundy signing in a vacuum. The Twins paid him nothing, he gave the Twins a ton of solid starts, and I think Baldelli was way too quick with the hook when Bundy was pitching well. 15 of 29 starts, Bundy left the game with an ERA under 4.00. 2x he left with an ERA of 4.50. For a guy making $5MM and giving the Twins 29 starts? That's pretty dang cheap.

He was not the pitcher the Twins should have been signing, though. The Twins didn't need a whole bunch of #5's. That's why it was a bad signing for the team.
 

[Doctor Gast]

7 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

In what way did his salary kill us? He was a late signing after striking out on pitching free agents. 

Twins' main reason to trade him was his salary. They wanted to free up his salary to sign a big-name SS. & I agree with your reason why we signed him.

[jmlease1]

8 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Agreed, because of that I'd rate my

#1 as Donaldson- his production wasn't bad but his salary killed us & devasted our catching corp to appropiate.

#2 Shoemaker

#3 Happ

#4 Gallo

#5 Lynn- he was a good signing but being disgruntled made it bad

All other signings were good signings but poorly managed. Colume if used in lower leverage 1st instead of being showcased extensively as our closer, he'd have been fine. Bundy was signed as a piggy-back pitcher, in limited innings he was very good but they later decided that all SPs needed to go 7. Being overextended his pitching went down hill. Simmons was a great signing. W/o spring training, he provided great defense & before he went down because of covid he was having a career hitting season. But during his IL stint, they "properly" trained him & after his return he was absolutely terrible.  The Vazquez signing was very good. Besides providing great defense, it took the burden off Jeffers's shoulders so he could lift himself up from the ashes to be a 1st class hitting catcher.

Colome had been a closer for 5 season at this point; why exactly would we have brought him to be a low-leverage pitcher? he was brought in to close, and flunked out. Bundy pitched into the 7th inning exactly once in 2022; it was his best start of the season by a mile. He wasn't any better in limited innings; he just wasn't very good. Simmons had a good first week of the season that propped up his early stats, and was passable hitting with his defense (which was still very good, just no longer Hall of Fame worthy) until July, when he collapsed utterly; the idea that the Twins "trained" him in their way that wrecked him during his IL stint with COVID is a) not backed up by evidence, and b) laughable. he sucked at the plate the next season with the Cubs and was out of the league at 32.

Which is more likely: these veterans were washed up, or the Twins didn't handle them right? Because Colome and Simmons both sucked in their next stops too.

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Twins' main reason to trade him was his salary. They wanted to free up his salary to sign a big-name SS. & I agree with your reason why we signed him.

Ah okay now I understand your thought process. I agree with you trading him at the time we did worked out. As far as the initial signing itself it was good and he produced while wearing a Twins uniform. So that’s my crux with the author putting him as the 5th worst FA signing. 

[Brandon]

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Topics like these are really difficult to analyze. Evaluating free agent signings is more than just dollars paid or WAR, etc. The player's fit on the team's needs, and what position they were supposed to occupy, what expectations were, and whether or not the player remained on the team could be taken into consideration.

I still like the Bundy signing in a vacuum. The Twins paid him nothing, he gave the Twins a ton of solid starts, and I think Baldelli was way too quick with the hook when Bundy was pitching well. 15 of 29 starts, Bundy left the game with an ERA under 4.00. 2x he left with an ERA of 4.50. For a guy making $5MM and giving the Twins 29 starts? That's pretty dang cheap.

He was not the pitcher the Twins should have been signing, though. The Twins didn't need a whole bunch of #5's. That's why it was a bad signing for the team.
 

I fully agree with this statement on Bundy.  He was a solid pitcher for the price paid.  He led the team in starts and I think innings pitched.  Unless Berrios beat him.  He wasn’t great but was also on a 1 year deal.  
 

if your talking about free agent contracts under Falvine leadership then what about the Addison Reed contract.

[Dlee]

6 hours ago, mickster said:

I give you   Tsuyoshi Nishioka

Even though the time was pre Falvey; didn't he return the guaranteed signing $ for pulling out?