A Good Problem to Have: Austin Martin Selected to Return to Triple-A

[Sherry Cerny]

Finally, here at the end of a month that gave them plenty of bad problems, the Minnesota Twins have to navigate a good one. They sent out a rookie who had earned a better fate this week, to make room for a superstar on an increasingly loaded roster.

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

There's no need to rehash the bad start the Twins had, because they have turned it around and the bats are on fire. A large part of that is thanks to rookie Austin Martin, who came up on Mar. 30 and immediately made an impact. Martin was drafted in 2020, and had one of the best bats in the draft. Injuries (plus a developmental detour or two) slowed his ascent to the big leagues, but he came to spring training healthy and ready, and when Royce Lewis got hurt on Opening Day, the club called him up.

Martin has been an integral part of the Twins. His bat has been one of the best on the team, driving in six runs and scoring 16 to keep the team above water. While he is not the owner of the sausage, maybe Martin was the magic the team needed, and to see him sent down deserved a moment of reflection. Notably, later call-ups Trevor Larnach and José Miranda stayed put.

Neither Miranda nor Larnach have made the impact that Martin has. Miranda certainly made a splash in 2022 when he came up for the Twins, but his 2023 and the start to his 2024 were anything but impactful. Miranda was brought up on Apr. 8, and has been comparable to Martin in the numbers that he has helped drive in, but his at-bats are streaky, with no consistency.

There is an argument for Larnach, who certainly has a better batting average, but in the big picture, he doesn’t get on base as much as Martin. Larnach has a .379 batting average, but fewer appearances and fewer at-bats, so he's made less of an absolute contribution. Larnach's RBIs and runs are equal, at seven, and doesn’t have stolen bases or some of the ancillary skills Martin has. Larnach has shown how great he can be in clutch situations, but can’t hit both lefties and righties like Martin can. Martin bats .250 against righties, with only a 21% whiff rate and .167 with a 13.9% whiff rate against lefties. The latter number is ugly, but it would regress upward with time. Larnach is a great hitter; there is no argument there. However, the plate discipline that Martin has is one of the best on the team, and his speed sets him apart from Miranda and Larnach around the bases. He came around to score a staggering 79 percent of the times he reached base during his big-league stint, and while some of the credit for that goes to teammates, his legs deserve to be counted when choosing among fringe options like these.

Larnach’s sprint speed is in the bottom half of the league, with Miranda’s speed hanging out slightly above that. Martin has two stolen bases and six doubles on the season. In each of the games where Martin hit into a double, the Twins won. It’s not saying that he is the reason for the win, but his contribution to the team is undeniable in that aspect. Willi Castro and Buxton took a bit to be productive at the plate like Martin was. Martin’s stolen bases equal Buxton and Castro put together. It's the same with doubles and RBIs. Martin’s speed is an absolute necessity on this squad and will be missed.

Eventually, Royce Lewis will return to the roster, but that remains far off on the horizon. Until then, perhaps the team feels more comfortable with Miranda defensively than with Martin playing the infield. Still, this move was a bit of a bummer. Being objective as a fan and a writer can be hard at times. Baseball is a business, but it’s also hard to watch the guys to whom fans get attached sent back down or be traded. The good thing is, this is a good problem to have.

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[bean5302]

.226/.294/.371 OPS .665 wRC+ 94.
Bad batting average.
Horrible on base percentage.
Bad slugging percentage.
Below average overall package.

That being one of the best bats the Twins had is not only inaccurate, it isn't a good thing. Martin's great as a league minimum salary backup/utility type. A guy who can plug holes when injuries crop up who prevents the team from having to go out pay millions for guys like Margot. Certainly valuable, but in that 1-2 WAR role player category. Martin isn't the kind of guy you want as a first option on the depth chart at anything other than maybe 2B where his bat might play well enough, and his arm and range might play well enough to put up a 2 WAR season.

[Doctor Gast]

Another great article Sherry. Even though there's nothing else he can prove in AAA & what he needs to learn is on the MLB level. But I yield that a little rest in AAA wouldn't hurt, Yet when the charm of the sausage is gone, they'll need to request the spunk of Martin to rejuvenate the team again. Beyond everything that Martin does. it's awesome how well he hits RHPs as well as LHPs.

[4twinsJA]

I think Martin has an bright future. It was great for Martin to have an earlier than expected opportunity at MLB level so early in season. He did some things well, has some work to do on others. Will be good for Martin to go back to AAA and work on his weaknesses so can have even better results when he returns to MLB.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

18 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

.226/.294/.371 OPS .665 wRC+ 94.
Bad batting average.
Horrible on base percentage.
Bad slugging percentage.
Below average overall package.

That being one of the best bats the Twins had is not only inaccurate, it isn't a good thing. Martin's great as a league minimum salary backup/utility type. A guy who can plug holes when injuries crop up who prevents the team from having to go out pay millions for guys like Margot. Certainly valuable, but in that 1-2 WAR role player category. Martin isn't the kind of guy you want as a first option on the depth chart at anything other than maybe 2B where his bat might play well enough, and his arm and range might play well enough to put up a 2 WAR season.

Whatever the future holds, Martin did not exactly blow things away while he was up.

If we are getting excited over a slash of .226/.294/.371 this team is in big trouble.

[chpettit19]

45 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

.226/.294/.371 OPS .665 wRC+ 94.
Bad batting average.
Horrible on base percentage.
Bad slugging percentage.
Below average overall package.

That being one of the best bats the Twins had is not only inaccurate, it isn't a good thing. Martin's great as a league minimum salary backup/utility type. A guy who can plug holes when injuries crop up who prevents the team from having to go out pay millions for guys like Margot. Certainly valuable, but in that 1-2 WAR role player category. Martin isn't the kind of guy you want as a first option on the depth chart at anything other than maybe 2B where his bat might play well enough, and his arm and range might play well enough to put up a 2 WAR season.

 

25 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Whatever the future holds, Martin did not exactly blow things away while he was up.

If we are getting excited over a slash of .226/.294/.371 this team is in big trouble.

As much as people aren't going to like to hear it, his inability to hit for any meaningful power had the effect that should've been expected...he couldn't artificially prop up his OBP with walks because pitchers went right at him. His fantastic chase rate (17.1%) didn't mean anything because he faced a well above average percentage of pitches in the zone (52.7%). His inability to impact the baseball (1st percentile barrel%, 25th percentile avg exit velo, 28th percentile xSLG) gives him a really hard path to anything beyond a utility player. Still a useful player, but not the leadoff star many are hoping/expecting he becomes.

The Twins weren't trying to turn him into Giancarlo Stanton in the minors like some like to act like they were. They were trying to turn him into Bo Bichette. He's going to need to hit the ball harder to give himself a real shot at being a quality everyday player. But having him for league minimum instead of someone like Margot for 4 million is a nice option.

[sftwinsfan]

Have to disagree, he was ok. But he was hitting .226 with a .665 OPS. He can have some value with his speed and playing multiple positions but at this point he's a light-hitting utility player with good speed. I do wish he could stay up to have a good pinch runner available. The runs scored were nice, but how much credit goes to luck, of the hitters behind him coming through with hits while he happened to be on base? Up to this point, Miranda has had a more impactful bat and is a more natural replacement for Royce Lewis at 3B while he's on the IL with Farmer struggling. Obviously, Martin will be back, and I think there's a good chance he will replace Willi Castro in 2025 as they have similar skillsets and Castro is starting to become expensive for a utility role. 

[jmlease1]

7 minutes ago, sftwinsfan said:

Have to disagree, he was ok. But he was hitting .226 with a .665 OPS. He can have some value with his speed and playing multiple positions but at this point he's a light-hitting utility player with good speed. I do wish he could stay up to have a good pinch runner available. The runs scored were nice, but how much credit goes to luck, of the hitters behind him coming through with hits while he happened to be on base? Up to this point, Miranda has had a more impactful bat and is a more natural replacement for Royce Lewis at 3B while he's on the IL with Farmer struggling. Obviously, Martin will be back, and I think there's a good chance he will replace Willi Castro in 2025 as they have similar skillsets and Castro is starting to become expensive for a utility role. 

I think this is about right, but I do think there's more available for Martin as a hitter: I think he'll be able to increase the batting average and continue to grab walks (and he also showed in the minors that he's not afraid to stand in and get plunked, either). But he needs to keep working on some things, finding ways to punish mistakes, and improving his defensive skills in the OF.

He's the obvious choice to send down right now with Margot on the roster, and Larnach and Miranda playing well. I do still think he can be a quality MLB player for us, especially with his speed and baserunning. He didn't sink when he came up and that's a good thing.

[Sherry Cerny]

43 minutes ago, 4twinsJA said:

I think Martin has an bright future. It was great for Martin to have an earlier than expected opportunity at MLB level so early in season. He did some things well, has some work to do on others. Will be good for Martin to go back to AAA and work on his weaknesses so can have even better results when he returns to MLB.

fully agree!!! I just miss him!!!

[Sherry Cerny]

15 minutes ago, sftwinsfan said:

Have to disagree, he was ok. But he was hitting .226 with a .665 OPS. He can have some value with his speed and playing multiple positions but at this point he's a light-hitting utility player with good speed. I do wish he could stay up to have a good pinch runner available. The runs scored were nice, but how much credit goes to luck, of the hitters behind him coming through with hits while he happened to be on base? Up to this point, Miranda has had a more impactful bat and is a more natural replacement for Royce Lewis at 3B while he's on the IL with Farmer struggling. Obviously, Martin will be back, and I think there's a good chance he will replace Willi Castro in 2025 as they have similar skillsets and Castro is starting to become expensive for a utility role. 

That is quite okay! I knew this was a stretch for some people. For me last night it was evident that his bat was missing. Some say that this is to keep Margot 'trying'...I am not sure how accurate that is! But, I suppose it could be! Martin will absolutely be back and I am so excited for when that is!

[Sherry Cerny]

46 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Another great article Sherry. Even though there's nothing else he can prove in AAA & what he needs to learn is on the MLB level. But I yield that a little rest in AAA wouldn't hurt, Yet when the charm of the sausage is gone, they'll need to request the spunk of Martin to rejuvenate the team again. Beyond everything that Martin does. it's awesome how well he hits RHPs as well as LHPs.

Dr, you are making me blush!!! Thank you! I am trying to get better. NOW I do know that his fielding could use some work in the aspect that he is in charge down there but struggled a bit with Buck in the field with him, so I for sure am excited to see his growth. 

[Karbo]

Personally, I would take Martin over Margot at this point. That could change if Margot starts hitting, but I sure don't see him in CF anymore. Going back down is probably the right move for Martin at this time. He got a taste, now its up to him to try to continue his growth as a ball player.

[bean5302]

Is there anybody who wouldn't take Martin over Margot at this point? I think everybody would, and picking up Margot really looks like a horrible move. His sprint speed is a miserable (relative to his historical speed) 26.9 ft/sec this year which means he's just not even an option in CF. Anything below 28.0 ft/sec is a liability in CF, and anything below mid 27s is a huge liability. Margot is officially a corner OF who can't hit at this point. Total debacle for a team which had a tight budget.

Maybe Falvey will swallow his pride and DFA Margot if Larnach keeps hitting a little longer by proving he's able to recognize pitches better. Until then, I suspect Falvey will be unwilling to risk losing depth with some track record.

[cheeseheadgophfan]

All stats and numbers aside, to me he passed the eye test.  Didn't look overwhelmed and looked the part of a big leaguer.  His speed plays and he made some nice plays in the outfield.  Consider me impressed.....

[Sherry Cerny]

11 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Is there anybody who wouldn't take Martin over Margot at this point? I think everybody would, and picking up Margot really looks like a horrible move. His sprint speed is a miserable (relative to his historical speed) 26.9 ft/sec this year which means he's just not even an option in CF. Anything below 28.0 ft/sec is a liability in CF, and anything below mid 27s is a huge liability. Margot is officially a corner OF who can't hit at this point. Total debacle for a team which had a tight budget.

Maybe Falvey will swallow his pride and DFA Margot if Larnach keeps hitting a little longer by proving he's able to recognize pitches better. Until then, I suspect Falvey will be unwilling to risk losing depth with some track record.

You know that I didn't think of Margot, I was seeing red over Martin and not Larnach or Miranda. 

[Linus]

He didn’t light the world on fire but the sample is small and it’s his first time in the big leagues. I hope he gets lots of reps in CF and 2nd base. If he can play a legit CF his value goes up considerably. 

[Dman]

I am probably low man on Martin as he has never had an 800 OPS season for the Twins even in the minor's.  Without power there is no reason for pitchers to not attack the zone.  Generally the worst he is going to do is single which is the same as a walk so why walk him?  The lack of Barrel's is also a legit concern as you can't get hard contact without barreling it up.  It is a pretty weak batting profile to this point.

Still I was impressed with how well he did do at the MLB level.  HIs K rate was only around 20% so he was still making contact against tougher pitching.  He looked good on the bases and held his own in the field.  For a first time callup he didn't look overwhelmed or out of place in fact he looked like basically the same player at AAA with a lower batting average and OBP which would be expected against better pitching.

I don't have high hopes for Martin, but I do think he can use doubles to get his slugging in the 400 range and if he can increase his batting average he can be 700 to 750 OPS player at the MLB level.  With his speed on the bases that is a valuable utility player. He'll be back and hopefully even better than his first time around.

 

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

 

As much as people aren't going to like to hear it, his inability to hit for any meaningful power had the effect that should've been expected...he couldn't artificially prop up his OBP with walks because pitchers went right at him. His fantastic chase rate (17.1%) didn't mean anything because he faced a well above average percentage of pitches in the zone (52.7%). His inability to impact the baseball (1st percentile barrel%, 25th percentile avg exit velo, 28th percentile xSLG) gives him a really hard path to anything beyond a utility player. Still a useful player, but not the leadoff star many are hoping/expecting he becomes.

The Twins weren't trying to turn him into Giancarlo Stanton in the minors like some like to act like they were. They were trying to turn him into Bo Bichette. He's going to need to hit the ball harder to give himself a real shot at being a quality everyday player. But having him for league minimum instead of someone like Margot for 4 million is a nice option.

Agreed, but let's not forget this is his first time up in the bigs.  He may improve his hard hit rate next time up when he has a better idea of how teams will pitch to him. You're right though, the big problem is he turns a mistake pitch into a single or a double, not a home run. That makes it hard to draw walks since pitcher can go right at you without worrying about being hurt too bad. Hard problem to solve if yo don't hit the ball harder more often.  

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Agreed, but let's not forget this is his first time up in the bigs.  He may improve his hard hit rate next time up when he has a better idea of how teams will pitch to him. You're right though, the big problem is he turns a mistake pitch into a single or a double, not a home run. That makes it hard to draw walks since pitcher can go right at you without worrying about being hurt too bad. Hard problem to solve if yo don't hit the ball harder more often.  

Definitely not suggesting he's doomed. Just saying this was the concern with him. I don't think him having to go back to AAA right now is a terrible thing. He wasn't lighting the world on fire with the Twins, but got his feet wet and will continue to work to improve. I like his style of play, it's a nice contrast to many others in the lineup. But he's got real work to do if he's going to be more than a utility guy. I think he has a major league career ahead of him. It just won't be what many of us hoped for if he can't put more fear into pitchers.

[Riverbrian]

He did alright. I don't believe he hurts us and he helped us win a game or two.

He will be back sometime and we will see how the 2nd visit goes. 

I agree... guys like Austin can be a nice problem to have. 

His future? No idea... I'll wait for the future before looking into his future.  

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Is there anybody who wouldn't take Martin over Margot at this point? I think everybody would, and picking up Margot really looks like a horrible move. His sprint speed is a miserable (relative to his historical speed) 26.9 ft/sec this year which means he's just not even an option in CF. Anything below 28.0 ft/sec is a liability in CF, and anything below mid 27s is a huge liability. Margot is officially a corner OF who can't hit at this point. Total debacle for a team which had a tight budget.

Maybe Falvey will swallow his pride and DFA Margot if Larnach keeps hitting a little longer by proving he's able to recognize pitches better. Until then, I suspect Falvey will be unwilling to risk losing depth with some track record.

Certainly looking like a bad trade to add the RH OF they needed all offseason, but at least it's been a good prospect swap so far. 

[Doctor Wu]

17 hours ago, cheeseheadgophfan said:

All stats and numbers aside, to me he passed the eye test.  Didn't look overwhelmed and looked the part of a big leaguer.  His speed plays and he made some nice plays in the outfield.  Consider me impressed.....

That's pretty much my take too. He was called up for the first time and wasn't overwhelmed and didn't look out of place. Sure, the numbers weren't great, but still better than half of the rest of the team at this point last week. I'm encouraged. 

[Doctor Wu]

Eventually, Royce Lewis will return to the roster, but that remains far off on the horizon.

Speaking of which, what is the timeline for a Lewis return? I hope "far off" is not that far away. 

[JD-TWINS]

On 4/30/2024 at 12:35 PM, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Whatever the future holds, Martin did not exactly blow things away while he was up.

If we are getting excited over a slash of .226/.294/.371 this team is in big trouble.

Completely agree on the offensive mediocrity shown. He had 4-5 peaks in there that helped them win a few and be competitive in others. Defensive flexibility is good!

Looks like he may be back up Friday with the injury to Buxton’s knee this afternoon. What a drag to see him pull up and then complaining about right knee soreness. Cannot imagine this is a rest and ice kind of injury. Expecting something in the 4-8 week range. He may need another meniscus clean up? He didn’t twist it so it seems something popped or tore in there. Not a physician but have terrible knee and this looked serious - unfortunately!!