Twins Lack Starting Pitching Depth Behind Louie Varland

[mickster]

2 hours ago, Azviking101 said:

Varland was already demoted so someone from this list is replacing him. 

Varland should come back in the pen, but our lack of depth may require him to be stretched out for rotation.   Varland';s future is in the BP I think, as he was much better there last year

[Major League Ready]

They traded away Cade Povich at the deadline in 22.  He has a .83 ERA and a K/9 of 13.71 in 4 starts.  I heard very good things about him on MLB radio before the season started.    Steer (153 wRC+) and Povich would be important assets right now.   Sawyer-Gibson Long also started 4 games at the end of last year for Detroit with a 2.70 ERA but he is hurt.  Yennier Cano would be welcome here as well.  The majority applauded them investing in that team.  I was not one of them.  That team was not worthy of investment and we will probably pay for it for several years.  Much bigger mistake then signing a couple 1 year players that don't produce.

[nicksaviking]

I really don't care about 'starter depth' because if you have to stick a bunch of washed up vets or non-prospects into your rotation, you're not playing for a championship anyway. This was never about missing out on Maeda and Keuchel replacements, it was about not replacing Sonny Gray. Everything after that was basically just deciding how long they could tread water before they inevitably drowned.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

They traded away Cade Povich at the deadline in 22.  He has a .83 ERA and a K/P of 13.71 in 4 starts.  I heard very good things about him on MLB radio before the season started.    Steer (153 wRC+) and Povich would be important assets right now.   Sawyer-Gibson Long also started 4 games at the end of last year for Detroit with a 2.70 ERA but he is hurt.  Yennier Cano would be welcome here as well.  The majority applauded them investing in that team.  I was not one of them.  That team was not worthy of investment and we will probably pay for it for several years.  Much bigger mistake then signing a couple 1 year players that don't produce.

Let's relitigate stuff again!

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, nicksaviking said:

I really don't care about 'starter depth' because if you have to stick a bunch of washed up vets or non-prospects into your rotation, you're not playing for a championship anyway. This was never about missing out on Maeda and Keuchel replacements, it was about not replacing Sonny Gray. Everything after that was basically just deciding how long they could tread water before they inevitably drowned.

If you aren't tryin to win, you aren't trying to win....agreed.

[nicksaviking]

3 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

They traded away Cade Povich at the deadline in 22.  He has a .83 ERA and a K/P of 13.71 in 4 starts.  I heard very good things about him on MLB radio before the season started.    Steer (153 wRC+) and Povich would be important assets right now.   Sawyer-Gibson Long also started 4 games at the end of last year for Detroit with a 2.70 ERA but he is hurt.  Yennier Cano would be welcome here as well.  The majority applauded them investing in that team.  I was not one of them.  That team was not worthy of investment and we will probably pay for it for several years.  Much bigger mistake then signing a couple 1 year players that don't produce.

Povich has been awful prior to his four outings this season. Steer is the only one of those players the Twins will miss long term.

And the irony of that trade was, had the Twins tried to get a Reds starter prior to the season (instead of signing Archer and Bundy), the price to get Mahle, heck, maybe even Castillo, would have been Miranda. Steer would probably still be a Twin as he didn't break out until the Twins were done dragging their feet and admitted they were desperate for pitching.

[bean5302]

31 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

When have players w/ options you play the players with the hot hand & rotate. It's like you say it's a puzzle that needs to be daily figured out.

The problem with going with the hot hand means you're just playing a game of craps. The hot hand last start in AAA might mean they're the cold hand "this" start when you call them up, haha.

[laloesch]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

In the least surprising development of the season, Matt Canterino is still injured.

That's a shame.  Rotator Cuff strain.  Matt just needs to call it a day and retire.  He can't stay healthy and will likely never stay healthy long enough to crack the majors.  He's already 26 years old.

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

The problem with going with the hot hand means you're just playing a game of craps. The hot hand last start in AAA might mean they're the cold hand "this" start when you call them up, haha.

I think it is more a matter of "this guy is struggling, let's try the next one" for me at least. I agree on not trying to guess at the hot hand....

My issue with low ceiling, mediocre vets, is that they RARELY are not replacement level, and you are just holding back a guy that might be good (and that you might need in the future). Give me a chance at above average play (that can be optioned if it isn't working) every time.

[In My La Z boy]

12 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Povich has been awful prior to his four outings this season. Steer is the only one of those players the Twins will miss long term.

And the irony of that trade was, had the Twins tried to get a Reds starter prior to the season (instead of signing Archer and Bundy), the price to get Mahle, heck, maybe even Castillo, would have been Miranda. Steer would probably still be a Twin as he didn't break out until the Twins were done dragging their feet and admitted they were desperate for pitching.

Not replacing Sonny was an arrogant mistake, but sinking $200M into Correa apparently blew up the piggy bank. 

Dyson, Mahle, Paddock, Descalfini are 4 quick examples of trades Falvey made for the soon to be injured, not helpful. The starter I miss, that Falvey missed on was Littell.

Don't like the hindsight but here we are. Better stretch out Sands. I like SWR, but as was said earlier, we'll need a few more starters to get through September. 

[Mark G]

Try not to laugh too hard, but why not take a look at Bowman?  He threw, what, 46 pitches, or right around that, last week and last time I checked his arm was still attached to his shoulder.  A lot of us thought he was going to grab an Uber over to St. Paul for an arm there that was able to pitch if needed, but they kept him around, so they must think something of him.  His stats, limited though they may be, look pretty good.  Why not take a look?  Especially when you can put him up against the White Sox as a good first look.  Personally, I am curious how he would do.  Stretch him out a little more and see.  

[mikelink45]

I can only envision SWR.  Everyone else is throwing three innings or less.  And if we need another starter it is going to be a really long season.

[bean5302]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I think it is more a matter of "this guy is struggling, let's try the next one" for me at least. I agree on not trying to guess at the hot hand....

My issue with low ceiling, mediocre vets, is that they RARELY are not replacement level, and you are just holding back a guy that might be good (and that you might need in the future). Give me a chance at above average play (that can be optioned if it isn't working) every time.

We're 100% in agreement. Betting on veterans who are #4-5 types means they're literally one step back from being guys you don't want in the rotation at all. I've been beating the drum for years and years on this point. Even if you're overpaying for a guy you signed at $20MM AAV hoping for a 3.50 ERA and they regress to a 3.90 ERA, they're still a guy you want in the rotation and probably in the playoffs as your #3. There's still huge value in that.

Same kind of point on utility guys or platoon only guys. That's luxury spending if you have the budget. They're not the guys you should be counting on to add value. They're guys who tread water for you while the contributors are on the IL.

[jkcarew]

Someone with a shred of upside please.

So…not Dobnak 

[nicksaviking]

37 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

Not replacing Sonny was an arrogant mistake, but sinking $200M into Correa apparently blew up the piggy bank. 

Dyson, Mahle, Paddock, Descalfini are 4 quick examples of trades Falvey made for the soon to be injured, not helpful. The starter I miss, that Falvey missed on was Littell.

Don't like the hindsight but here we are. Better stretch out Sands. I like SWR, but as was said earlier, we'll need a few more starters to get through September. 

If the front office knew ownership was going to choke the life out of the payroll, I doubt they sign Correa last year. 

On that same line of thought, weren't Falvey and/or Levine being considered for Red Sox jobs early in the off season but they withdrew their names? Or at least Falvey did? Then Joe Pohlad dropped the bomb about a month later. 

[USAFChief]

1 minute ago, nicksaviking said:

If the front office knew ownership was going to choke the life out of the payroll, I doubt they sign Correa last year. 

On that same line of thought, weren't Falvey and/or Levine being considered for Red Sox jobs early in the off season but they withdrew their names? Or at least Falvey did? Then Joe Pohlad dropped the bomb about a month later. 

Levine interviewed in October for the Red Sox PBO position. He was informed shortly after he was no longer under consideration. 

Falvey declined an interview for the same job.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/10/twins-thad-levine-no-longer-a-candidate-for-red-sox-front-office-job.html

[nicksaviking]

2 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Levine interviewed in October for the Red Sox PBO position. He was informed shortly after he was no longer under consideration. 

Falvey declined an interview for the same job.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/10/twins-thad-levine-no-longer-a-candidate-for-red-sox-front-office-job.html

Possibly he already knew, but if he didn't, I wonder if Falvey would have thought otherwise had he understood the new sheriff in town was going to try to turn the team into the Pittsburg Pirates.

[USAFChief]

28 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Possibly he already knew, but if he didn't, I wonder if Falvey would have thought otherwise had he understood the new sheriff in town was going to try to turn the team into the Pittsburg Pirates.

I gotta believe both of them knew the payroll situation long before any of the Boston stuff came up. They were making public announcements by early November. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Looks SWR is getting the nod on Friday night. Yes, I am blinded by the start against Detroit, but I'm bullish on SWR. I think he has the stuff to hold down that 5th spot and do well.

[Swing Batter-Batter]

I realize that the name I about to utter, has had off field problems but, at this point, I'm pretty sure Trevor Bauer would be a huge improvement to the starting rotation. 

[beckmt]

2 hours ago, farmerguychris said:

Come on guys, give Dobnak a shot.  I'd love to see us get something out of his salary and he can't really be much worse can he?  Would love to see him end up being a long, drawn out success story for us if his finger is healthy!

NO!!!!

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I really don't care about 'starter depth' because if you have to stick a bunch of washed up vets or non-prospects into your rotation, you're not playing for a championship anyway. This was never about missing out on Maeda and Keuchel replacements, it was about not replacing Sonny Gray. Everything after that was basically just deciding how long they could tread water before they inevitably drowned.

Agreed that the major misstep was not replacing Sonny, but the non-prospects is something I worry about. They've had time. They should have starter prospects to fill in now. They needed to replace Sonny no matter what, but still not having any close starter prospects they could feel confident in just makes the problem even more pronounced. If you're going to replace Sonny with DeSclafani you better have a AAA rotation full of guys you're not just ok with being spot starters, but are actively excited to see in your 2024 rotation. Just a brutal situation all around.

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Povich has been awful prior to his four outings this season. Steer is the only one of those players the Twins will miss long term.

And the irony of that trade was, had the Twins tried to get a Reds starter prior to the season (instead of signing Archer and Bundy), the price to get Mahle, heck, maybe even Castillo, would have been Miranda. Steer would probably still be a Twin as he didn't break out until the Twins were done dragging their feet and admitted they were desperate for pitching.

IDK what changed with Povich but I was listening to an interview on MLB radio with someone from Baltimore's FO before the season started.  He singled out Povich among their pitching prospects which caught my attention.  I have been following him and we shall see but so far, his prediction looks pretty good.

[Mike Sixel]

33 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Agreed that the major misstep was not replacing Sonny, but the non-prospects is something I worry about. They've had time. They should have starter prospects to fill in now. They needed to replace Sonny no matter what, but still not having any close starter prospects they could feel confident in just makes the problem even more pronounced. If you're going to replace Sonny with DeSclafani you better have a AAA rotation full of guys you're not just ok with being spot starters, but are actively excited to see in your 2024 rotation. Just a brutal situation all around.

Which teams are sitting on good pitchers in AAA, other than WTF is Pittsburgh doing?

[Kenny Powers]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

When have players w/ options you play the players with the hot hand & rotate. It's like you say it's a puzzle that needs to be daily figured out.

This is where my head is at.  Ideally, you'd have an established pecking order of guys in reserve (like we had last season).  But we don't have anything close to that right now (aside from SWR).  So you just have to run with whomever is throwing it best at the moment.  It shouldn't be hard to improve upon what we've gotten from Varland so far this season as a starter.  You have to have accountability.  If a guy isn't getting it done - give someone else a shot.

 

[KirbyDome89]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

How many teams have good starters in AAA, not being  down for no reason? I'd guess very few, if any. The Twins at least have SWR to try as a realistic option. 

This idea that they are failures for not having good starters in AAA does not reflect reality of the rest of the league at all. 

The situation is a failure. The lack of options, i.e. being one SP injury away from deciding between rushing Festa or going with a retread and/or washed vet FA certainly contributes. 

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

The situation is a failure. The lack of options, i.e. being one SP injury away from deciding between rushing Festa or going with a retread and/or washed vet FA certainly contributes. 

So, every team is a failure?

[chpettit19]

12 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Which teams are sitting on good pitchers in AAA, other than WTF is Pittsburgh doing?

What teams have prospects they're excited about in AAA but aren't throwing into their opening day rotation? I'd wager a lot of them. Well, at least a lot of the good ones. It's actually the basis of your entire strategy of relying on young guys. You have to have young guys in AAA to rely on. Good ones. Not just system filler guys. If you're going to do your "rotate through young guys instead of mediocre, or bad, vets" strategy you have to have young guys worth rotating through. I agree with the strategy in general. I just don't think the Twins have done a good job of loading AAA, or AA, with guys you can actually do it with. The average minor leaguer isn't worthy of being part of your strategy if you're expecting to be a good team. Because most won't be any good at all. They'd perform like Varland. They aren't all just automatically high ceiling guys.

Pittsburgh isn't doing anything that weird with Skene. I assume that's what you're referring to. They're going to get an extra year out of him while they build his innings over the first 1/4 or 1/2 the season. It's not some outrageous plan. They had Jared Jones in their opening day rotation and kept depth in AAA to rotate through if he struggled. It's what you're asking the Twins to do. If you don't think it's reasonable to stash talent in AAA at the start of the year you need to change your desired "rotate through young guys with options" strategy because it won't work with just any random minor leaguer.

"Sitting on good pitchers in AAA" is literally the basis of every good team's team building strategy. The Dodgers, Rays, Braves, and Cleveland have been doing it with pitchers for years. It's why they're good. It's what the minors are for. My stance is that the Twins don't have good enough prospects for this plan right now. SWR came into the year going the wrong way as a prospect. Festa was a good, not great prospect with 3 AAA starts. My argument is that 8 years in they shouldn't be having to rely on those types of prospects. 

[beckmt]

3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Povich has been awful prior to his four outings this season. Steer is the only one of those players the Twins will miss long term.

And the irony of that trade was, had the Twins tried to get a Reds starter prior to the season (instead of signing Archer and Bundy), the price to get Mahle, heck, maybe even Castillo, would have been Miranda. Steer would probably still be a Twin as he didn't break out until the Twins were done dragging their feet and admitted they were desperate for pitching.

This is 20/20 hindsight, and you don't know with pitchers who will breakout, if and when.  Twins made good trades here, let's not second guess everything.

[KirbyDome89]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

So, every team is a failure?

Huh? I guess define your expectations here...

If Oakland or the White Sox are the measuring stick then sure, the Twins pitching situation isn't so bad.

If you're trying to make it through the regular season and win some postseason games, praying your 1-4 stay 100% healthy, Paddack's struggles are just rust, and Varland or SWR can hold down the 5 spot because the alternative is a Keuchel clone seems like a lot to ask. Are other would be contenders doing that with a fully healthy rotation?