Closing Competitive Window: Twins Must Avoid Blue Jays’ Shortcomings

[Cody Christie]

The Blue Jays were supposed to develop into an American League powerhouse with a trio of young talent leading the way. Minnesota needs to avoid Toronto’s shortcomings to avoid its competitive window closing.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Baseball is a game of winning windows. Most teams attempting to contend will cycle through winning and losing seasons. During the losing seasons, a team can replenish their farm system with higher draft picks and trading away veterans. Teams can trade for MLB-caliber talent when the winning window opens to supplement the roster and make a playoff run. Over the last five seasons, the Twins have won the AL Central three times, which points to the team being in their winning window. However, another AL club is attempting to keep its winning window open, and Minnesota must avoid its shortcomings. 

The Blue Jays have been one of baseball’s best teams since 2020, with a .557 winning percentage and MLB’s sixth-best record over the last four seasons. Many believed the young core of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and Cavan Biggio would turn Toronto into a perennial contender. Still, the club has failed to win the division or make it out of the Wild Card round. According to Baseball Trade Values, 22 of Toronto’s 26 starters will be free agents over the next one to three seasons, and 16 players can be gone after the 2025 campaign. Their winning window is quickly closing, so how do the Twins differ from the Blue Jays?

Farm System
The Twins have supplemented veteran players on their roster by continuing to fare well when developing players in the farm system. Last season, the club saw the fruits of that labor, with young players taking on a critical role, including Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Bailey Ober, Louie Varland, and Matt Wallner. Minnesota also has other prospects on the cusp of the big leagues in 2024, such as Brooks Lee, Austin Martin, David Festa, and Simeon Woods Richardson. Like most teams, Minnesota values depth, and having players ready for the call can keep a winning window open. 

According to MLB Pipeline, the Twins have baseball’s 15th-ranked farm system, and the Blue Jays rank 24th. Toronto has two top 100 prospects with starting pitcher Ricky Tiedemann (29th) and infielder Orelvis Martinez (89th). Minnesota has four top-100 prospects, including Walker Jenkins (10th), Brooks Lee (18th), Emmanuel Rodriguez (42nd), and Gabriel Gonzalez (79th). Not every top-100 prospect will become a regular at the big-league level, but the Twins have more top-tier talent than the Blue Jays. 

Adding Value in Trades
Derek Falvey has been aggressive on the trade market since stepping into the top spot in the Twins’ baseball operations department. When trading, results can have a wide array of long-term results. Minnesota will feel the long-term ramifications of the Tyler Mahle and Jorge López trades as the players combined to provide negative WAR value in a Twins uniform. Not every trade has gone poorly for the club, and some deals have helped the team expand their competitive window. 

In 2021, the Twins attempted to recreate the magic from the 2019 season by bringing back Nelson Cruz for a third season. Minnesota was out of the race by the trade deadline and sent Cruz and his expiring contract to the Rays for a package that included Joe Ryan. Ryan has established himself as a mid-rotation starter with the potential to continue developing. There are also other examples of Minnesota finding value in the trade market.

The Twins acquired Sonny Gray from the Reds for Chase Petty, a late first-round pick. Gray performed at an All-Star level for two seasons, and now Minnesota will get a late first-round pick in the 2024 MLB Draft as compensation for his leaving. Entering 2023, the front office sent Luis Arraez to Miami for Pablo Lopez. Arraez was terrific for the Marlins last season, but the Twins had depth at second base and needed front-line starting pitching. Lopez made adjustments after joining the organization and projects to be one of the AL’s best starters in 2024.

Avoiding Long-Term Free Agent Contracts
During their current winning window, the Blue Jays added George Springer, Kevin Gausman, and Hyun Jin Ryu to high-priced free-agent deals. Each player has provided glimpses of value, but some of those deals are starting to age poorly. In fact, the back end of most long-term deals are typically bad from the team’s perspective. Ironically, the Blue Jays traded with the Twins for José Berríos and immediately extended him to a long-term deal. Minnesota wasn’t interested in meeting Berríos’ demands, so the club parted ways. His time in Toronto has been filled with ups and downs, and the Twins are waiting to see what Martin and Woods-Richardson can provide.

Like Toronto, Minnesota attempted to add a veteran, Josh Donaldson, to push the team to the next level. Injuries marred his Twins tenure, but the club was lucky to dump the last two years of his contract on the Yankees. Carlos Correa has signed multiple free-agent deals with the club and struggled with plantar fasciitis in the first year of his six-year deal. Correa was young when he reached the open market so the team hopes he can provide more value over the next five seasons. Aging players will see a decline in performance, and the key is to avoid dedicating too much payroll space to these types of players, especially for mid-market teams.

Toronto’s future isn’t set in stone, but it appears their winning window might be closing in the highly competitive AL East. Luckily, Minnesota plays in arguably baseball’s worst division, so it’s easier to stay competitive. The Twins have also been able to avoid some of the Blue Jays' shortcomings for the long term.

Is Toronto’s winning window closing? How long can the Twins stay atop the AL Central? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[mikelink45]

Thought provoking essay.  Thanks.  I have been a Blue Jay fan - not like the Twins - and have been frustrated by their issues over the past few years.  They certainly have performed well, but they have lacked the shut down pitchers they need.  I would love to have Berrios back, but he has never been Ace quality.  

I give them credit for trying - signing Gausman and Chapman, promoting good young talent and trying to sign big name free agents.  I love Toronto and will be there this summer too.  Toronto is the "New York" of Canada, an ethnically rich city with a lot of options.  But it is still a foreign city and I think that impacts their ability to sign players.  And maybe there is a parallel there too as Minnesota tries to compete agains Chicago, LA, NY, Atlanta.  

There is a challenge for every franchise and how the team works with that challenge is something that is worth observing too.

[Karbo]

If Toronto played in the central they would probably have been playoff regulars.

[chinmusic]

39 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Toronto is the "New York" of Canada, an ethnically rich city with a lot of options.

Toronto is Toronto.  I've never heard anyone here refer to us as the New York of Canada. True, there is ethnic diversity now, though this was not always the case.

As Karbo stated, the competitive differences of the the AL East and Central have been a huge factor in the 2 teams fortunes.  Balancing out the schedule somewhat was a good move. More could be done there, like division realignment. For Twins fans, the Central has been a gift horse. Jays fans don't have that luxury, though playing more frequently against a higher level of competition gets the juices flowing. A consolation, or rationale...whatever.

 

[Major League Ready]

The Twins put a lot of eggs ($$$) in one basket in the form of Carlos Correa.  They have roughly $70M invested between Correa, Lopez, and Buxton.  There is not a whole lot of help coming from free agency, at least not from high dollar free agents.  The payroll space has pretty much already been spent for the next few years.  The first thing they need to keep this window open is for those three guys to deliver.

I think the next most crucial or even perhaps the most crucial element will be internal development of starting pitching.  As we observed with the Cease trade, trading for starting pitching costs multiple prospects that are the type of players that are needed to keep a window open.  LA, Houston and Atlanta are very good examples of young players coming along a helping sustain success.   

The INF looks like it’s going to be fine.  The OF is a different story.  If Wallner fades and Kepler goes away we don’t look so good.  I am going to be watching Rodriquez, Gonzalez, and Rosario closely.  We really need those guys to not only make it but become impact players.  
 

[Doctor Gast]

I enjoyed your article, Cody! Well done. Toronto IMO didn't get the steady production from their top players that they'd hoped. Plus being in the AL East you have to be on top of your game all season long, which can take a lot out of a team. With top veterans like Lopez, Buxton & Correa; present young core led by Lewis plus great prospects coming up, we have a great opportunity. Our only weakness right now IMO is a 2nd dominant postseason SP. If Ryan & or Ober take that big step we have him if not, hope we get lucky at the deadline. 

Going forward, our weak link is catching. Right now our Vazquez/ Jeffers tandem isn't bad, but if we lose Vazquez to injury or trade our team will fall apart. Jeffers has proven when left to be the sole primary catcher for any substantial time he'll falter. Eventually, Vazquez will leave us, when that happens our defensive catching (a premium position) depth will reach the bottom of the barrel. The Twins have placed 0 importance on drafting & developing defensive catching that'll come back to bite us these coming years when we are aspiring to win the World Series.

Many think that Vazquez is expensive, But if the Twins had the foresight to have a potential elite catching prospect ready for Vazquez to mentor when he 1st arrived. He'd be a bargain. If Jeffers falters or gets hurt after Vazquez is gone. What will the Twins do? Because we have no one of value to step in (hoping Carmargo (NR) miraculously develops into defensive catcher won't cut it). We don't have the money to go out & get an elite catcher or willing to trade for one. So that puts a damper on our postseason aspirations.

[JD-TWINS]

53 minutes ago, chinmusic said:

Toronto is Toronto.  I've never heard anyone here refer to us as the New York of Canada. True, there is ethnic diversity now, though this was not always the case.

As Karbo stated, the competitive differences of the the AL East and Central have been a huge factor in the 2 teams fortunes.  Balancing out the schedule somewhat was a good move. More could be done there, like division realignment. For Twins fans, the Central has been a gift horse. Jays fans don't have that luxury, though playing more frequently against a higher level of competition gets the juices flowing. A consolation, or rationale...whatever.

 

Definitely a difference in the two Divisions!

Cleveland was competitive across the A.L. for a good portion of 25 years. Hargrove managed teams across to Tito’s clubs.

Central is weaker as a whole but the Royals won the Series 10 years ago.

The White Sox should be a competitive franchise - it’s not the Twins fault nor MLB’s that they are poorly run. Realignment just pushes the poor $$ or poor managed franchises around.

The “weak” Twins were 14-5 against Houston, Texas, Philadelphia, & Arizona in ‘23 regular season. These were the last 4 standing………,and somehow they squeaked by the A.L. East power Blue Jays with a 2-0 record in the playoffs.

A big part of the Jay’s recent issues is that Biggio isn’t a star hitter, Chapman’s production was a roller coaster, and Vlad Jr. didn’t push through lately to more than good. Also, specifically v. the Twins, Gausmann has not been very effective…….they game planned well against him in ‘23.

The reduced Division play is a reasonable approach to leveling things! I like playing the Royals less and the Reds or Mets or Marlins or Dodgers more - more interesting!!

IMO, if the Rays can be competitive in that Division annually for a pretty good stretch of time, it’s up to each organization to figure it out and deal with whoever is on your schedule………….nobody in the Central is sad for Jerry Reinsdorf in the Chicago market, gotta figure it out as an organization.

[Fatbat]

Seems like the Twins are better at finding and developing talent out side the top 100 prospects list than many teams. Many fans are mad at the return for Polanco but that trade may payoff for a decade. In the short term, his production has been covered. 
We definitely are deep at the farm system and can pull 2-4 solid rookies every year for the foreseeable future. That will keep our championship window open for years to come. FA’s are nice. Winning trades is better. Winning the draft and development game builds championship teams. 

[nova_twins]

The Blue Jays now are a closer comparison to the late 2010s Twins when their highly touted young position players couldn't quite translate into the desired level of success, for various reasons. 

The Twins subsequently fell off but bounced back with a combination of trade pick ups and additional young players arriving. And by playing in the AL central as others have noted. 

The Twins competitive window now is dependent largely on the health of their core players.

[mikelink45]

3 hours ago, chinmusic said:

Toronto is Toronto.  I've never heard anyone here refer to us as the New York of Canada. True, there is ethnic diversity now, though this was not always the case.

As Karbo stated, the competitive differences of the the AL East and Central have been a huge factor in the 2 teams fortunes.  Balancing out the schedule somewhat was a good move. More could be done there, like division realignment. For Twins fans, the Central has been a gift horse. Jays fans don't have that luxury, though playing more frequently against a higher level of competition gets the juices flowing. A consolation, or rationale...whatever.

 

I am in Toronto regularly with the cruise line and the guides we hire in the city regularly call it the New York of Canada - sorry if it is something you don't like.  I am just repeating what I was told by the tourism guides.  And I still like the comparison and the city.

[chinmusic]

6 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

sorry if it is something you don't like.  I am just repeating what I was told by the tourism guides.  And I still like the comparison and the city.

Pas de probleme ! It is a pretty vibrant city. For what it's worth, I'm a Montreal native, but long time Toronto resident. 

[stringer bell]

Any team without huge revenue has to develop talent within their system and the Twins have done that on the position player side for sure. Counting Jeffers as a starter, the Twins will have seven of their nine starters drafted and developed by the team. Not so much with the pitching staff. Depending on how Ryan is regarded, the Twins will have two starters and two in the bullpen drafted and developed by the Twins. A mixed bag of trades and signings has netted the majority of the pitching staff.

From this core, teams add free agents and trade for players, most often by trading prospects. The Twins didn't spend much money this year to augment their roster and traded away one of their five best players in the last five years, at least in part to reduce payroll. This is the concern I have going forward. Will the Twins trade away major league talent because (in their analysis) they can't afford to keep them? This is the only way I can justify their approach in this off season. 

I don't want to see Jeffers, López, Lewis, Kirilloff, Ober or Ryan traded because their contracts are too big for the budget. Toronto has pretty much been able to pay their stars as their salaries increase. They haven't had any luck in postseason for a while, but I really think they've had sufficient talent to win. If the Twins want to stay competitive, they also need to keep their best players and augment the roster on occasion. To me, that will determine if the competitive window closes.

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, chinmusic said:

Toronto is Toronto.  I've never heard anyone here refer to us as the New York of Canada.

 

The proper way to refer to Canada is USA, Jr. or Junior for short. That's what you Canadians like best, right? Just trying to be respectful :D

[bean5302]

Toronto's biggest problem, as previously mentioned, is playing in the toughest division in baseball. Perennial juggernauts like the Yankees and Red Sox, plus the Rays. All three of those teams are usually very good. Now the Orioles are showing up to the fight as well.

Toronto is a good team. They're still in the thick of the playoff odds this year.

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, chinmusic said:

Pas de probleme ! It is a pretty vibrant city. For what it's worth, I'm a Montreal native, but long time Toronto resident. 

I love it.  Working on the small cruise boat we go to Toronto, Montreal, Quebec City, Baie Comeau, and out to the Maritimes.  I love Canada and have so many good memories.  When my wife and I walked around Lake Superior in 2010, 2 month of our walk was in Ontario and we felt so at home with the people and the land.  My only complaint is that the mounties don't wear that wonderful costume that I saw when I went to Canada in the 50s.  Thanks for the note. 

[D.C Twins]

I think that one of the Twins' biggest strengths is the balance that they have between veterans, young MLB players and quality of farm system.

They are well positioned for sustained success.

But.... are we willing to compromise some long term sustained success to go 'all in' on a WS run if the situation arises?

My concern is that ownership as determined that consistent moderate success is optimal for long term revenue over one WS followed by extended struggles. 

[gunnarthor]

The current FO has already shown that it couldn't keep the previous window of opportunity open so not really sure what the point of this article was when you don't even discuss that. I think a better article might be if the Twins can avoid the mistakes they've already made.

[Eris]

Toronto has been in the playoffs 5 of the last 10 years. The best team doesn’t always win, e.g., look at the Dodgers over the last 10 years. Winning a playoff series is a combination of skill, luck, can a team set their rotation, and a player or two getting hot at the right moment. Often a game and series win come down to one play made or not made. A bad pitch or a strike 3 call a pitch just off the plate. 
 

As mentioned in the article the Blue Jays have a number of FA signings or extensions that may not age well. Berrios has had 1 good year (3 fWAR) and one not so good year (1 fWAR). Springer has only lived up to his contract 1 of the 3 years. I think the Twins have been fortunate to limit bad multi-year contracts. They were fortunate to be able to off load Donaldson’s contract.
 

 

[bean5302]

17 hours ago, Eris said:

Toronto has been in the playoffs 5 of the last 10 years. The best team doesn’t always win, e.g., look at the Dodgers over the last 10 years. Winning a playoff series is a combination of skill, luck, can a team set their rotation, and a player or two getting hot at the right moment. Often a game and series win come down to one play made or not made. A bad pitch or a strike 3 call a pitch just off the plate. 
 

As mentioned in the article the Blue Jays have a number of FA signings or extensions that may not age well. Berrios has had 1 good year (3 fWAR) and one not so good year (1 fWAR). Springer has only lived up to his contract 1 of the 3 years. I think the Twins have been fortunate to limit bad multi-year contracts. They were fortunate to be able to off load Donaldson’s contract.
 

 

Berrios with Toronto
2021 - 5-4, 12 GS, 9 QS, 70.1 IP, 3.58 ERA, 3.28 FIP, 3.61 xFIP, Toronto 6-6 (.500) in Berrios starts, signed extension
2022 - 12-7, 32 GS, 17 QS, 172.0 IP,  5.23 ERA, 4.55 FIP, 4.21 xFIP, Toronto 23-9 (.719) in Berrios starts
2023 - 11-12, 32 GS, 15 QS, 189.2 IP, 3.65 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 4.01 xFIP, Toronto 17-15 (.531) in Berrios starts

While Berrios' stats looked really bad in 2022, Toronto won the games where he started on the mound over 70% of the time, and despite the nasty ERA, Berrios was more inconsistent than bad as he put up more than 1/2 his starts as quality starts (that's not at all common these days). Berrios has lived up to a mid/upper rotation arm for Toronto for the most part, but that wouldn't have made him worth the huge contract on his own. The fact he's been able to make every start and go out there to pitch 6 innings has been worth the extra cost on the contract, I think. Berrios was just handed the opening day starter job for the Blue Jays this year. I'd say Toronto is probably more than happy with the contract so far.

[Rosterman]

The Twins have the rotation arms of Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Varland tied to the team at least thru the 2027 season at predictable costs.  Throw in Duran, and Jax...well, Twins look pretty good in pitching land with a good level of prospects coming into the mix starting in 2026.

Jeffers, Kirilloff, Jensen, Lewis, Wallner are also controllable thru those seasons. Ad well as the expensive contracts for Correa and Buxton. The Twins could totally have a new outfield by the time 2026 comes around, and those guys would be playing strong for 5-6 seasons. Throw Lee into the mix. 

If the Twins can carve out some extra funds, they will have a dynasty easily.