Can the Twins Avoid the Blue Jays' Stall and Widen Their Competitive Window?

39 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Toronto is the "New York" of Canada, an ethnically rich city with a lot of options.

Toronto is Toronto.  I've never heard anyone here refer to us as the New York of Canada. True, there is ethnic diversity now, though this was not always the case.

As Karbo stated, the competitive differences of the the AL East and Central have been a huge factor in the 2 teams fortunes.  Balancing out the schedule somewhat was a good move. More could be done there, like division realignment. For Twins fans, the Central has been a gift horse. Jays fans don't have that luxury, though playing more frequently against a higher level of competition gets the juices flowing. A consolation, or rationale...whatever.

The Twins put a lot of eggs ($$$) in one basket in the form of Carlos Correa.  They have roughly $70M invested between Correa, Lopez, and Buxton.  There is not a whole lot of help coming from free agency, at least not from high dollar free agents.  The payroll space has pretty much already been spent for the next few years.  The first thing they need to keep this window open is for those three guys to deliver.

I think the next most crucial or even perhaps the most crucial element will be internal development of starting pitching.  As we observed with the Cease trade, trading for starting pitching costs multiple prospects that are the type of players that are needed to keep a window open.  LA, Houston and Atlanta are very good examples of young players coming along a helping sustain success.   

The INF looks like it’s going to be fine.  The OF is a different story.  If Wallner fades and Kepler goes away we don’t look so good.  I am going to be watching Rodriquez, Gonzalez, and Rosario closely.  We really need those guys to not only make it but become impact players.  
 

I enjoyed your article, Cody! Well done. Toronto IMO didn't get the steady production from their top players that they'd hoped. Plus being in the AL East you have to be on top of your game all season long, which can take a lot out of a team. With top veterans like Lopez, Buxton & Correa; present young core led by Lewis plus great prospects coming up, we have a great opportunity. Our only weakness right now IMO is a 2nd dominant postseason SP. If Ryan & or Ober take that big step we have him if not, hope we get lucky at the deadline. 

Going forward, our weak link is catching. Right now our Vazquez/ Jeffers tandem isn't bad, but if we lose Vazquez to injury or trade our team will fall apart. Jeffers has proven when left to be the sole primary catcher for any substantial time he'll falter. Eventually, Vazquez will leave us, when that happens our defensive catching (a premium position) depth will reach the bottom of the barrel. The Twins have placed 0 importance on drafting & developing defensive catching that'll come back to bite us these coming years when we are aspiring to win the World Series.

Many think that Vazquez is expensive, But if the Twins had the foresight to have a potential elite catching prospect ready for Vazquez to mentor when he 1st arrived. He'd be a bargain. If Jeffers falters or gets hurt after Vazquez is gone. What will the Twins do? Because we have no one of value to step in (hoping Carmargo (NR) miraculously develops into defensive catcher won't cut it). We don't have the money to go out & get an elite catcher or willing to trade for one. So that puts a damper on our postseason aspirations.

Seems like the Twins are better at finding and developing talent out side the top 100 prospects list than many teams. Many fans are mad at the return for Polanco but that trade may payoff for a decade. In the short term, his production has been covered. 
We definitely are deep at the farm system and can pull 2-4 solid rookies every year for the foreseeable future. That will keep our championship window open for years to come. FA’s are nice. Winning trades is better. Winning the draft and development game builds championship teams. 

The Blue Jays now are a closer comparison to the late 2010s Twins when their highly touted young position players couldn't quite translate into the desired level of success, for various reasons. 

The Twins subsequently fell off but bounced back with a combination of trade pick ups and additional young players arriving. And by playing in the AL central as others have noted. 

The Twins competitive window now is dependent largely on the health of their core players.

6 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

sorry if it is something you don't like.  I am just repeating what I was told by the tourism guides.  And I still like the comparison and the city.

Pas de probleme ! It is a pretty vibrant city. For what it's worth, I'm a Montreal native, but long time Toronto resident. 

I think that one of the Twins' biggest strengths is the balance that they have between veterans, young MLB players and quality of farm system.

They are well positioned for sustained success.

But.... are we willing to compromise some long term sustained success to go 'all in' on a WS run if the situation arises?

My concern is that ownership as determined that consistent moderate success is optimal for long term revenue over one WS followed by extended struggles. 

The Twins have the rotation arms of Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Varland tied to the team at least thru the 2027 season at predictable costs.  Throw in Duran, and Jax...well, Twins look pretty good in pitching land with a good level of prospects coming into the mix starting in 2026.

Jeffers, Kirilloff, Jensen, Lewis, Wallner are also controllable thru those seasons. Ad well as the expensive contracts for Correa and Buxton. The Twins could totally have a new outfield by the time 2026 comes around, and those guys would be playing strong for 5-6 seasons. Throw Lee into the mix. 

If the Twins can carve out some extra funds, they will have a dynasty easily.