How Can the 2024 Season Be Viewed as a Success for Byron Buxton?

[Cody Christie]

Byron Buxton’s health and performance have been a positive storyline throughout spring training. With Opening Day quickly approaching, what would make the 2024 season a success for the Twins’ center fielder?

 

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

One year ago, Byron Buxton was trying to find a way to get healthy enough to help the Twins during the 2023 season. Spring training was a nightmare, as he dealt with continual knee pain, so the team announced he’d begin the year in the designated hitter role. Some thought that Buxton would return to the outfield later in the season, but he was never truly healthy and was limited to 85 games, all as a DH. He hit .207/.294/.438 with 35 extra-base hits and a 98 OPS+. He described his condition last year as “feeling like a knife is in your knee every morning.” So, what’s changed for the 2024 season?

Earlier today, our Nick Nelson published his analysis of the center field position for the Twins in 2024, and Buxton's various potential dimensions of success and failure are the main variable being analyzed there. During the offseason, Buxton underwent an arthroscopic procedure to excise the plica, a membrane flap, in his right knee. This type of surgery has a shorter recovery time than his previous procedures, and the Twins believed it would alleviate the issues he suffered through in recent years. Buxton’s attitude and performance look to be back on track this spring, which the Twins hope translates to a better regular season performance. Success in 2024 can take on multiple forms, and he likely has multiple goals he is aiming for to deem the season a success. 

Games in Center Field
Buxton’s career high for games in center field came in 2017, when he played 137 games and logged 1,143 innings. His defense was so good that season that he was honored with the AL’s Platinum Glove as the league’s top defender. From 2021-22, he averaged fewer than 60 games in center field while dealing with multiple injuries. Earlier this winter, reports had the Twins hoping he’d start around 80 games in center, with his remaining time coming at DH or used as rest days. However, he needs to do more than play games in center field for the season to be deemed a success, so he likely needs to accomplish more on this list. 
Successful Season Goal: 75+ games in center field  

OPS+
Buxton’s offensive ability can change the entire dynamic of the Twins’ lineup. Over the last three seasons, he combined for a 131 OPS+ while averaging fewer than 80 games per season. ZiPS projects Buxton to finish the season with a 124 OPS+ in 364 plate appearances, which is more playing time than he has averaged over the last three seasons. Baseball-Reference projects him for an .817 OPS, an 86-point increase from 2023. In 2022, Buxton was an All-Star and posted an .824 OPS with 23 home runs in the season’s first half. Those totals are significant, especially if he is playing center field regularly.  
Successful Season Goal: 120 OPS+

Total Games Played
In previous seasons, Buxton discussed a goal of reaching 100 games played, which he has only previously accomplished once in his big-league career. Even with limited availability, Buxton has provided tremendous value to the Twins. According to FanGraphs, Buxton averaged over 4.0 WAR in 2021-22, which translates to him being worth over $30 million per season. In 2024, the Twins will pay Buxton just north of $15 million, a value that has been easy for him to reach in previous seasons. Minnesota has paid Buxton close to $36 million in career salary, and he has provided the team with $151.7 million worth of value. 
Successful Season Goal: 100 games played 

Availability in October
The Twins ended the playoff losing streak last season, but Buxton couldn’t contribute in October. He was added to the team’s roster in the Houston series after Alex Kirilloff landed on the IL with a shoulder injury. Buxton made one plate appearance, but failed to reach base. After the game, he said there was no way he could play in the field. Buxton has missed time in other playoff series during his career, too. In 2019, the Bomba Squad didn’t have Buxton in the lineup as the Yankees swept them in three games. Back in 2017, Buxton was removed from the Wild Card Game after crashing into the outfield wall. For the Twins to make a deeper run in the playoffs, the club needs its stars to play at their highest level in October. Carlos Correa showed the team what he could do in October, and he was playing through plantar fasciitis at the time. A healthy Buxton and Correa can wreak havoc on the AL playoff picture. 
Successful Season Goal: Peak Performance in October

Some fans likely won’t be happy unless Buxton is playing every day in center field and performing at an All-Star level. Those aren’t realistic expectations at this point in his career, but there are performance milestones he can accomplish during the 2024 campaign. The Twins are better with a healthy Buxton in the lineup, as he can be one of baseball’s best players on both sides of the ball.

---

How will you view this season as a success for Buxton? Is it based on games played, offensive performance, or wins in October? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

View full article

[Oldtimer]

Due to all of Bucks past history, anything over a hundred plus game appearances would be an overwhelming success and a division title come fall.

[spanman2]

Adhere to a strict 'walls are not my friend mindset'...they will hurt me!  If he could log 125-130 games in CF with that mindset I think the other #'s take care of themselves. Certainly understand he isn't wired like that but I believe its got to be that way.   WIN TWINS!

[CRF]

No IL trips. 

[bean5302]

5 WAR. As far as I'm concerned, that's a success for Byron Buxton playing almost exclusively in CF. If Buxton is DH'ing, he comes with a pretty low ceiling since he can't get on base.

My expectations for Buxton is 70-90 games almost all in CF generating about 4 WAR. Anything over that is icing on the cake. Anything less than that is a huge disappointment.

[jkcarew]

I’m ok with this definition…seems reasonable…

Of course, we’d need to then acknowledge that Buxton has NEVER had a successful season.

Never had an OPS+ of 120 with 100 games. Played over 100 games only once (with an OPS+ of 93.) Career OPS+ of 106 and the 3-year trend has been 171, 133, 98.

Also, never been anything close to healthy and/or good by the time the postseason rolled around. With a grand total of 7 more-or-less miserable plate appearances across 5 postseason series.

I’d say if all this happens this year, it would be a huge, and surprising, boost to the club.

[Parfigliano]

Buxton hugely benefits from what everyone sees wishes he could be by ignoring downplaying what he actually is.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

@Cody Christie I think you nailed it.  I might tweak it to 100 games in CF with a few more as DH, but that's a minor issue.  I just hope that if/when he is injured, he goes on the IL and is allowed whatever time he needs to get right.  If he can play in the field, the rest of the numbers will surely follow.  He also needs to be healthy (enough) come playoff time because that's when he could be a real difference maker. 

 

[D.C Twins]

If he stays healthy, everything else will take care of itself. 

Honestly, he has already exceeded my expectations by playing as much as he has in CF in Spring training.... I thought is days as a regular CF were over. 

[farmerguychris]

His year end WAR needs to match or exceed his discounted salary.  I think that should be the goal for the rest of his career.  He accepted an incentive laden contract due to health concerns.  Hopefully he gets paid lots of incentives, but if now - we need to get at least what we are paying for.

[Gamblerssoftball]

The pain he endured in his knee last year significantly lowered his production at the plate. Likewise, if his legs are under him, I fully expect his swing to be much better. Legs are everything for a ballplayer. 

[SaberNerd]

I'd put a successful season as returning to being a 4 WAR player.  Whether he does that in 21-22 style of domination but missing large chunks of games, or 17 style of playing 131 games in CF but not being a force in the lineup.  If there are too many different goals for what he needs to do for it to be successful, he likely won't hit one of them.

[GKuehl]

So many fans forget how valuable 1 WAR is (valued at roughly $8 million). For Buxton to outperform his contract, he'll only need to accumulate around 2 WAR.

Although we all have much higher hopes for Byron this year, he doesn't need to accumulate 4 or 5 WAR like some people are claiming for this season to be considered a success. A season in which Buxton plays 65 games in CF, 40 games at DH, is healthy for the playoffs, and puts up an .800+ OPS would likely lead to at least 3 WAR and constitute a resounding success. 

[JesusisLord7]

I think anything in excess of 20 gams in CF would be a major accomplishment for him. There is no way 100+ games. I'd take that bet on the under anyday. 

 

[gman]

I think 50-75 games in center, would be good. After last year, I'm not interested in seeing DH in too many games. 2 games a week in the field and 1 game at DH will do. Would be nice if he batted over 250 with a obp of over 300 and less than a 35% strikeout rate.

[rv78]

Some fans likely won’t be happy unless Buxton is playing every day in center field and performing at an All-Star level. Those aren’t realistic expectations at this point in his career, but there are performance milestones he can accomplish during the 2024 campaign. The Twins are better with a healthy Buxton in the lineup, as he can be one of baseball’s best players on both sides of the ball.

 

Isn't that what one of the best players on both sides of the ball should be doing? Playing everyday? Darn me for expecting that. I'd hate for him to actually earn his $15M and incentives.

[JD-TWINS]

Author’s expectations are FINALLY reasonable for Buxton. I put his CF starts down to around 65 maximum from your 75. I increase the total games to 115 from your 100. No trying to steal 20-30 bases as I’ve seen suggested here more than once.

The stigma that he can’t hit from the DH spot is ridiculous …….’23 proved he can’t DH if his legs aren’t working. Him and about 1400 other MLB players.

If he can get his average up to .235-.240 minimum, the other numbers will all fall into place (K’s - XBH - HR - OPS+)

The goal is healthy and able to start at least 50% of post season games in CF - gotta all agree on that being a successful year!

[ToddlerHarmon]

I'll take 3 WAR or even less, if he can start every playoff game in center and with enough expected production to bat above 7th.

For those wanting season stats, I recommend judging Buxton's offense by wRC+ rather than OPS+, as it considers steals, and, IMO, values overall offensive game more accurately.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, JesusisLord7 said:

I think anything in excess of 20 gams in CF would be a major accomplishment for him. There is no way 100+ games. I'd take that bet on the under anyday. 

 

Me too.

[Schmoeman5]

Where do you get the numbers that Buxton has provided 151 million dollars of value while earning 36 million? Those are made up numbers no matter how you value WAR. if that's the case. Mookie Betts has provided 500 million worth of value. What has he earned? 100 million plus? Idk. But you can't say 1 WAR is worth X. It doesn't work. Now when these guys careers are winding down and their numbers aren't what they were in their prime it will look like the exact opposite. Buxton to be really helpful needs to stay healthy and perform. Instead of being streaky good, how about consistently good. Forget the notion of 20 or 30 steals he's been talking about. Stay on the field.

[mnfireman]

Playing 6 of every 7 games is 139 games, playing 5 of 6 is 135 games. There are weeks with built in days off (no games) and Rocco has a propensity to go with "get away day" line-ups, but I feel those are the numbers needed for Buxton, 135 - 140 games.

[alexlegge]

@Cody Christie Your expectations outlined here are pretty solid. The only other big marker for Buxton's success is avoiding any prolonged cold stretches at the plate. I'm not talking about an 0-for-18 week...more like 6 weeks of a sub-.500 OPS. That's partially on Rocco, the rest of the coaching staff, and the front office. It seems like usually those stretches signal some sort of injury concern - or at least the collective toll taken by his freakish caliber of play. Without any intervention, something like that is inevitable for him over a 162-game season. I'd much rather have him on the IL for a few weeks than dragging down the rest of the lineup while playing through pain.

[mnfireman]

2 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Where do you get the numbers that Buxton has provided 151 million dollars of value while earning 36 million? Those are made up numbers no matter how you value WAR. if that's the case. Mookie Betts has provided 500 million worth of value. What has he earned? 100 million plus? Idk. But you can't say 1 WAR is worth X. It doesn't work. Now when these guys careers are winding down and their numbers aren't what they were in their prime it will look like the exact opposite. Buxton to be really helpful needs to stay healthy and perform. Instead of being streaky good, how about consistently good. Forget the notion of 20 or 30 steals he's been talking about. Stay on the field.

Several publications/websites are out there that have put a $$$ value on WAR, and $8 MM is about the value they have  come up with....so yes you can put a value on WAR.

[Schmoeman5]

9 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Several publications/websites are out there that have put a $$$ value on WAR, and $8 MM is about the value they have  come up with....so yes you can put a value on WAR.

Just because you put a value on it doesn't mean it's accurate.  I'll use Betts again. He has 9 years of service and has avg over 7 WAR for his career. If each WAR is valued at your 8 million figure, it would factor in contract negotiations. So they use projections for future WAR which isn't accurate either. His contract is for 12 year for 300 million plus he got 65 million to sign. Some of it is deferred. If he avg just a 4 WAR that's 32 million per year. So where does 8 million per WAR come from. And don't use double speak. It's not an accurate figure for value.

[Jocko87]

3 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Just because you put a value on it doesn't mean it's accurate.  I'll use Betts again. He has 9 years of service and has avg over 7 WAR for his career. If each WAR is valued at your 8 million figure, it would factor in contract negotiations. So they use projections for future WAR which isn't accurate either. His contract is for 12 year for 300 million plus he got 65 million to sign. Some of it is deferred. If he avg just a 4 WAR that's 32 million per year. So where does 8 million per WAR come from. And don't use double speak. It's not an accurate figure for value.

You were so close on your numbers but so far off on your formulas.  That's why math teachers make us show our work.  It's an industry standard calculation.  Contracts signed get a discount because its guaranteed money.  

[Jocko87]

8 hours ago, jkcarew said:

I’m ok with this definition…seems reasonable…

Of course, we’d need to then acknowledge that Buxton has NEVER had a successful season.

Never had an OPS+ of 120 with 100 games. Played over 100 games only once (with an OPS+ of 93.) Career OPS+ of 106 and the 3-year trend has been 171, 133, 98.

Also, never been anything close to healthy and/or good by the time the postseason rolled around. With a grand total of 7 more-or-less miserable plate appearances across 5 postseason series.

I’d say if all this happens this year, it would be a huge, and surprising, boost to the club.

My initial thought reading the article was 2 of the first 3, and item 4.  So 75 games in center with a 120 OPS+ and healthy in October.  The healthy in October being the most important part.  That probably ends up a 4+ WAR season which we would all be delighted with.  If we got the games without the OPS+, not so great but with a healthy October its still a success.

Good post that reminds us what MLB success actually is.  My chart listed in the previous, unrelated post, shows 5 of 8 seasons that would be considered a success.  When combined with a healthy October, it becomes a fantastic outcome.

Have I mentioned the healthy October being the important part?

[Schmoeman5]

1 hour ago, Jocko87 said:

You were so close on your numbers but so far off on your formulas.  That's why math teachers make us show our work.  It's an industry standard calculation.  Contracts signed get a discount because its guaranteed money.  

You just validated my point. Baseball Reference has Buxton and Betts WAR at 21 and 64.5. That more than a 10% difference. So which one is correct? How can you do math if the variables are different?  That's my problem with metrics. And you can't say, well the value is X. But when your negotiating contracts it's not really X it's Y because the money's guaranteed.

[Twinsrtheworst]

All I can say is he looks great down in Fort Myers.  I know its against the grain here. But...I've not given up hope of a healthy season with MVP votes.

[mnfireman]

2 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Just because you put a value on it doesn't mean it's accurate.  I'll use Betts again. He has 9 years of service and has avg over 7 WAR for his career. If each WAR is valued at your 8 million figure, it would factor in contract negotiations. So they use projections for future WAR which isn't accurate either. His contract is for 12 year for 300 million plus he got 65 million to sign. Some of it is deferred. If he avg just a 4 WAR that's 32 million per year. So where does 8 million per WAR come from. And don't use double speak. It's not an accurate figure for value.

Say what you want about the value, many national outlets have accepted it, so it is what it is. I personally don't care for WAR or many of the other "metrics", but the industry uses them. And they can be used to get TD users riled up 😉

[UK Twin]

15 hours ago, rv78 said:

Some fans likely won’t be happy unless Buxton is playing every day in center field and performing at an All-Star level. Those aren’t realistic expectations at this point in his career, but there are performance milestones he can accomplish during the 2024 campaign. The Twins are better with a healthy Buxton in the lineup, as he can be one of baseball’s best players on both sides of the ball.

 

Isn't that what one of the best players on both sides of the ball should be doing? Playing everyday? Darn me for expecting that. I'd hate for him to actually earn his $15M and incentives.

In a perfect world yes but that doesn't exist. If we look at some other star players, Ohtani won't be pitching at all this year and will be limited to DH. Angels will almost certainly manage Trout's workload to some extent after his injury problems. 

Both are earning a LOT more than Buxton (backloaded contract notwithstanding).

If Buxton does get any of the incentive bonuses in his contract then quite frankly we'll all be delighted and the 15mill AAV will an absolute bargain.