2024 Minnesota Twins X-Factors: The Sheriff's Back in Town

[Lou Hennessy]

Few players on the 2024 Twins roster are coming into as pivotal of a season as Chris Paddack. After missing most of the last two years, can he help fill the void left by Sonny Gray in the starting rotation?

Image courtesy of © Jonah Hinebaugh/Naples Daily News/USA Today Network-Florida / USA TODAY NETWORK

Chris Paddack is ready to get back on his horse, pin his badge back on his chest and resume his role as The Sheriff, this time in the Twins’ starting rotation. With his trusty six-shooter reloaded after undergoing major repairs (i.e., a second Tommy John procedure), the 28-year-old is ready to show this town what made him an appealing trade candidate back in 2022. And while the Twins are encouraged by the raw stuff he displayed in the final couple weeks of last season out of their bullpen, they need to be ready to see the good, the bad and the ugly from their promising starter.

Barring a surprising move to acquire another starting pitcher, it looks like the Twins’ rotation picture is mostly solidified. Staff ace Pablo López has his name written in pen atop the depth chart, with Paddack, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Anthony DeSclafani pegged to fill out the MLB starting group in some order (although there's likely to be at least some uncertainty about DeSclafani, at least until we get closer to Opening Day). But how that rotation performs depends heavily on what version of Paddack shows up, and how far his horse can take him this year.

High Expectations
If the Twins get the version of Paddack that they’ve seen on the field in two brief stints since acquiring him, they’ll see a high-energy arm, with excellent raw stuff and a top-prospect pedigree. In five starts upon joining the club in April 2022, he had a 4.03 ERA across 22 ⅓ innings pitched, with 20 strikeouts and just two walks. His numbers under the hood (including a 1.72 FIP) suggest his small-sample success might’ve been legitimate.

Paddack got good swing-and-miss rates from his three secondary offerings (25% from both curveball and slider, and an impressive 30.6% from his standout changeup). He’s also working on adding a cutter to his repertoire to complement his other offerings, especially against right-handed hitters.

When paired with his standout performance upon returning to the mound last September (wherein he pitched a combined 8 ⅔ innings between three regular season outings and two postseason appearances), those skills have Paddack looking primed for a breakout as he tries to reestablish himself as a starting pitcher. And the Twins seem to believe in him, as they’ve stated on numerous occasions that they are counting on him being a force in the rotation despite the fact that he's missed most of the last two seasons. According to manager Rocco Baldelli, just being back with the big-league club could work wonders for Paddack.

"I think just being with the group is going to help him a lot, He hasn't spent a lot of time actually with our team. He's been rehabbing. He's been getting his work in in Florida where he can get the attention that he needed," Baldelli told a scrum of reporters that included Twins Daily's John Bonnes on Monday. "But I think him spending time with his teammates, with our pitching coaches, with our staff is going to help him out a lot. I still think he's probably figuring some of those things out."

If Paddack is able to stay relatively healthy this season, he could try to hit a self-imposed goal of 140-160 innings pitched. It remains to be seen whether that is a reasonable target, but if he can put up something similar to the 4.28 ERA (with 9.2 K/9 and 1.0 BB/9) that he’s displayed in his limited Twins tenure thus far, then the club would gladly take that. 

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Possible Challenges
There’s no escaping the uncertainty that comes from returning to game action after undergoing one Tommy John surgery--let alone two. Paddack isn’t the kind of person to shy away from a challenge, but the mind can only go so far once physical limitations take their toll. Now 28 years old, the righty has time on his side as he hopes to reclaim his promising career, but it’s hard to put any stock in him reaching the same peak he was shooting for earlier in his career. 
No matter how much confidence the club can put out to the public, the reality is that Paddack is going to have to miss time at some point in 2024, whether that is due to injury, skipping starts to try and preserve his arm through the calendar year, or giving him a quicker hook in-game.

"We never have hard limits really on almost anyone," Baldelli answered when asked about a potential innings cap to Paddack's season. "But anyone who has been out for that period of time, you just have to be very aware of where they're at, both short-term in a particular start, and longer-term when you look at the bulk of what he's putting on his body."

Determining how much time he’ll need to miss as he ramps back up is going to be key. If he falls much short of his goal of throwing 140 innings, the Twins will need to find somebody to replace him for the rest of the starts from that spot in the rotation. The biggest variable around him might not be his performance, but the size of the innings chunk that the team will need to find elsewhere to round out his place in the rotation.

Fastball velocity is going to be another huge development to keep track of for Paddack going forward. Out of the bullpen last year, he averaged 95.5 MPH on his heater, and his other offerings were very effective when paired with the fastball at that velocity. But he will likely have to rein that in as he moves to a starter’s workload, and it's hard to guess how the rest of his repertoire is affected.

Realistic Outcome
There are a few paths that Paddack and the Twins can take that will lead them to realistic success in 2024. Both sides are going to need to be pragmatic, whether his performance is going better, worse or as-expected. One consideration could be to mostly let it fly (as the team did with Kenta Maeda in 2023), where the club was able to get about 20 starts of solid results (4.23 ERA, 10.1 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9). Of course, they had to navigate a two-month stint on the injured list early on, but upon returning, Maeda rattled off a 16-start stretch in which he had a 3.39 ERA across 85 innings pitched. That type of performance would certainly interest the Twins, but a workload that just barely crosses the 100 innings pitched mark (Maeda totaled 104 ⅓ innings last season) probably falls short of what the club is hoping to get from their pivotal starter this year.

Maybe a more reasonable expectation is to see what he can provide as a starter into July, and hope the Twins can swing a trade for an established, playoff-caliber starter at that stage. If Paddack remains healthy and effective through the trade deadline, it’s a good problem to have. If his raw stuff starts to diminish, maybe they determine whether he needs rest for his recovery, or pivot to another temporary move to a relief role for the home stretch of the regular season. That would effectively limit his inning count, while still providing positive value, especially if he looks as electric in relief as he did in his brief 2023 stint.

 

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When the dust settles after a hard-fought season, Paddack is likely to have shown up as one of the versions we’ve outlined. He’ll either be the sheriff who reclaims his title as an authoritative figure in the Twins’ starting rotation, with a repaired pistol at his side and a chip on his shoulder, or as a recovering deputy whose horse doesn’t run as far as it used to. Either way, he holds a pivotal role as the X-factor in the Twins’ rotation for 2024 and beyond. 

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What do you think? What are reasonable expectations for Paddack as he returns to the rotation after missing most of the last two seasons? Let us know what you think in the comment section below, and as always, keep it sweet. 

Reporter credit: @John Bonnes

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[Karbo]

If he can start 20 games with an ERA under 4.00 I would consider his return successful.

[Doctor Gast]

I have a good expectation about Paddack's return. His 140+ innings goal is very ambitious. I don't expect much over what Maeda pitched. If we gauge things up early, IMO we'll run into problems with Paddack & be left with fewer total innings from him. I don't expect much from DeSclavani so we'll need a lot of long relief to make up those innings.

[JD-TWINS]

Paddack seems to be best characterized as Chris Archer, relative to innings per start. Most games, just getting through 5 innings will be a hurdle……….with a half-dozen in the 3 2/3 range. 24-26 starts near 5 inning average is 120-130 innings & maybe a sweet spot before a mid-September move to the Pen.

A break sometime in July/August seems like it would be prudent. Fingers crossed for durability.

The cutter addition is interesting. Always good to hear guys are mixing things up to become more effective. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

I think he will provide what Pablo did for us last year.  He has been in the big leagues enough, he knows what it takes to succeed, as well as he has been in our system for 2 years now.  The velocity has improved which needed it too. Then we will see what the new pitches bring to his repertoire.  Personally I think he may have few hiccups early,  then gets it a groove and crushes the season.  Paddack has said he wants to be in the 140 to 160 range so he isn't planning to really limit himself.  He is going to step into the #2 role and take it.  His stuff is the second best on the team and with this this pitching coaching staff I have high expectations.  I am not too worried about injuries.  

[Mark G]

"We never have hard limits really on almost anyone" Baldelli answered when asked about a potential innings cap........

I laughed out loud when I read that part of the article.  This organization has shut down pitchers toward the end of the season coming up through the minors, set pitch count limits on pitchers depending on the circumstances, etc., etc, etc.  They have admitted it in the past; why suddenly are they defensive about questions about Paddack?  They have a plan going into spring training about bringing him along, as well as what they will allow him to do during the season, and if they are going to deny that........I hope very much to stand corrected; I would love to see Paddack come back stronger than ever and become a number 2 starter on this team.  But please, Rocco, no hard limits?  That just isn't believable for this organization, or any other organization for that matter with someone coming back from their 2nd TJ surgery.  Just level with us - we can handle the truth.  

By the way, good article Lou!

[miracleb]

"but if he can put up something similar to the 4.28 ERA (with 9.2 K/9 and 1.0 BB/9) that he’s displayed in his limited Twins tenure thus far, then the club would gladly take that."

Ummm.....no.  4.28 is probably a below league average ERA.  No one should be "happy" with that.  Other than Joe Ryan, who had a horrendous 2nd half of last season, most every Twin's starter had a lower ERA than that........

[Fatbat]

That internal brace must be important to holding the arm together.  If his arm is bouncing back every 5-6 days, he should put up some amazing stats. It would not surprise me to see some sort of piggy back starts in Aug/sept where paddack and an SWR/headrick team up for 7 inning stints. 

[Fatbat]

5 minutes ago, miracleb said:

"but if he can put up something similar to the 4.28 ERA (with 9.2 K/9 and 1.0 BB/9) that he’s displayed in his limited Twins tenure thus far, then the club would gladly take that."

Ummm.....no.  4.28 is probably a below league average ERA.  No one should be "happy" with that.  Other than Joe Ryan, who had a horrendous 2nd half of last season, most every Twin's starter had a lower ERA than that........

Probably closer to 3.28 era!

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Good article Lou. I live about 50 miles from Mt. Airy, North Carolina (the basis for the fictional Mayberry), I hope Sheriff Paddock produces a Sheriff Andy Taylor season, and not a season like Deputy Barney Fife.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

5 minutes ago, Mark G said:

"We never have hard limits really on almost anyone" Baldelli answered when asked about a potential innings cap........

I laughed out loud when I read that part of the article.  This organization has shut down pitchers toward the end of the season coming up through the minors, set pitch count limits on pitchers depending on the circumstances, etc., etc, etc.  They have admitted it in the past; why suddenly are they defensive about questions about Paddack?  They have a plan going into spring training about bringing him along, as well as what they will allow him to do during the season, and if they are going to deny that........I hope very much to stand corrected; I would love to see Paddack come back stronger than ever and become a number 2 starter on this team.  But please, Rocco, no hard limits?  That just isn't believable for this organization, or any other organization for that matter with someone coming back from their 2nd TJ surgery.  Just level with us - we can handle the truth.  

By the way, good article Lou!

There is a difference in 2 years of Paddack and protecting a 6 years of performance of a new prospect.  I think ultimately what they are saying is they will see how he is performing.  They won't stop him at 150 innings or 160 innings.  However,  he may be giving an off day or pulled early to limit innings if we get later in the season and he is ticking up on the innings count.  

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

7 minutes ago, Mark G said:

"We never have hard limits really on almost anyone" Baldelli answered when asked about a potential innings cap........

I laughed out loud when I read that part of the article.  This organization has shut down pitchers toward the end of the season coming up through the minors, set pitch count limits on pitchers depending on the circumstances, etc., etc, etc.  They have admitted it in the past; why suddenly are they defensive about questions about Paddack?  They have a plan going into spring training about bringing him along, as well as what they will allow him to do during the season, and if they are going to deny that........I hope very much to stand corrected; I would love to see Paddack come back stronger than ever and become a number 2 starter on this team.  But please, Rocco, no hard limits?  That just isn't believable for this organization, or any other organization for that matter with someone coming back from their 2nd TJ surgery.  Just level with us - we can handle the truth.  

By the way, good article Lou!

Noticing that a guy is struggling or fatiguing and shutting them down isn't a "hard limit", besides I don't think Baldelli is talking about their minor league system strategy because he's completely uninvolved with that. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

9 minutes ago, Mark G said:

"We never have hard limits really on almost anyone" Baldelli answered when asked about a potential innings cap........

I laughed out loud when I read that part of the article.  This organization has shut down pitchers toward the end of the season coming up through the minors, set pitch count limits on pitchers depending on the circumstances, etc., etc, etc.  They have admitted it in the past; why suddenly are they defensive about questions about Paddack?  They have a plan going into spring training about bringing him along, as well as what they will allow him to do during the season, and if they are going to deny that........I hope very much to stand corrected; I would love to see Paddack come back stronger than ever and become a number 2 starter on this team.  But please, Rocco, no hard limits?  That just isn't believable for this organization, or any other organization for that matter with someone coming back from their 2nd TJ surgery.  Just level with us - we can handle the truth.  

By the way, good article Lou!

The key word in Rocco's quote was "almost".

[Mark G]

1 minute ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

The key word in Rocco's quote was "almost".

You may very well be right, but to me the key word was "we".  That is why I used the term this organization instead of an individual.  The FO has quite a bit of say in how these things are handled.  Just my extremely humble opinion.  

[Mark G]

5 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

There is a difference in 2 years of Paddack and protecting a 6 years of performance of a new prospect.  I think ultimately what they are saying is they will see how he is performing.  They won't stop him at 150 innings or 160 innings.  However,  he may be giving an off day or pulled early to limit innings if we get later in the season and he is ticking up on the innings count.  

I guess I am confused a little; if they give him days off or pull him early to limit innings, that is stopping him at a number of innings.  I am not saying they know the number going into spring training necessarily, but they will have the reigns ready to pull any time they get nervous.  Maybe we are getting caught up on the word hard when it comes to the cap.  Hard is hard (pardon the pun) for an outsider to read what is their thought process.  I just know that we have limited pitchers from the bottom of the minors to the major league staff for a long time now; not everyone, but most of the young guys and guys recovering from injuries.  I will bend to the definition of the word hard, and just say they have a pre determined plan as to how far they will let him go.  And I will be stunned if he goes 160 innings (though pleased).  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

12 minutes ago, Mark G said:

I guess I am confused a little; if they give him days off or pull him early to limit innings, that is stopping him at a number of innings.  I am not saying they know the number going into spring training necessarily, but they will have the reigns ready to pull any time they get nervous.  Maybe we are getting caught up on the word hard when it comes to the cap.  Hard is hard (pardon the pun) for an outsider to read what is their thought process.  I just know that we have limited pitchers from the bottom of the minors to the major league staff for a long time now; not everyone, but most of the young guys and guys recovering from injuries.  I will bend to the definition of the word hard, and just say they have a pre determined plan as to how far they will let him go.  And I will be stunned if he goes 160 innings (though pleased).  

No there is a difference between a hard limit,  and slowing someone down.  In traffic school you learned the difference between a slow down and a stop right 😉.  I know cops are willing to teach you that lesson.  I think as he get higher on the innings threshold they may be willing to give him a days rest to keep him fresh for the post season.  Ultimately the post season is the goal.  

[rhal]

I wonder if they considered switching his role with Varland's from last year.  Keep him in the bullpen and let his arm get re-acquainted with a year of work from there and put Varland in his starting spot.  Seems like if they want to protect his arm it would be easier to do from the bullpen and his results there were lights out.

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

No there is a difference between a hard limit,  and slowing someone down.  In traffic school you learned the difference between a slow down and a stop right 😉.  I know cops are willing to teach you that lesson. 

Based only on my 65 years of driving experience, I don't think that most drivers know the difference between a full stop and a rolling stop. 😇

[KBJ1]

He is indeed a wild card. With some careful management  and two way communication,  I'm hopeful he has a great season. People still give Baldelli crap for pulling starters, but last year Twins starters were near the top of the keague in innings pitched! Previous years our starters sucked. Outside of Sonny Gray being pulled earlier than he wanted a few times, most were warranted. Last year Sonny had no issues with it and admitted he was gassed when pulled out of some games.

If our starting rotation lives up close to it's potential, they will be fine. The bullpen should be very solid.

Where we have really missed the boat this year is a RH power bat like Gurriel, for LF. He was the one FA option that made sense & was affordable. Hard to see Santana as the answer. If he has one last blast, let's hope it's now!

[Nashvilletwin]

Given our pen, I’d take 20-24 starts, an average of 5+ innings per start (125-135 innings) and an ERA of 4.00 from each of our #4-6 starters (Paddack, DeSclafani, and Varland).  In those 65-70 starts, we could expect to play around 0.550 ball, or win about 37 games, at a minimum.  

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

9 hours ago, miracleb said:

Ummm.....no.  4.28 is probably a below league average ERA.  No one should be "happy" with that. 

League average last year was 4.33. If offense, continues to rise, as is likely, 4.50 may very well be average this summer. I'd take a 4.28 with high K rate from Paddack every day.

[ashbury]

43 minutes ago, Lucas Seehafer PT said:

League average last year was 4.33.

And among starting pitchers the MLB ERA was a tick still higher than that, 4.45.

[Doctor Wu]

22 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Probably closer to 3.28 era!

That would be my hope/expectation too. If his ERA is anywhere near 4.28 I would be very disappointed. I'm really high on Paddack going into this season, so I sure hope he can stay healthy and be a reliable member of the rotation. 

[miracleb]

13 hours ago, Lucas Seehafer PT said:

League average last year was 4.33. If offense, continues to rise, as is likely, 4.50 may very well be average this summer. I'd take a 4.28 with high K rate from Paddack every day.

Not on a playoff caliber team......but that is probably not what you are looking for.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

2 hours ago, miracleb said:

Not on a playoff caliber team......but that is probably not what you are looking for.

The average starter ERA on playoff teams in 2023 was 4.15

[jmlease1]

The real question for Paddack is going to be what is his primary 3rd pitch and will he find effectiveness with it against RH batters. The fastball is good enough (especially if he's able to sustain a little more velocity on it) but if hitters can sit on it because his curve/cutter/slider isn't sharp enough that someone sitting fastball can still react to it, then he's going to have some issues. The changeup is quite good, and effective against LH batters, but he hasn't been able to consistently nail that other off-speed pitch, especially against RH.

Keith Law should have still considered him a rotation option for the Twins, and shouldn't have been such a d!ck about it when he was called on it...but there's a reason why Paddack was available when the Twins got him, and it wasn't just the elbow. 

Paddack has flirted with the cutter before (didn't work), a slider (not enough evidence), and has varying results with the curveball. If the staff gets one of these to work consistently (especially against RH hitters), then I think Paddack is going to have a heck of a season. If it's only moderately successful, then he'll be fine but not great (and a bullpen candidate late in the season), and if none of them really work, then he's going to be a meh 5th starter and we'll all be looking for Varland or Festa to take his spot.

[Lou Hennessy]

4 hours ago, miracleb said:

Not on a playoff caliber team......but that is probably not what you are looking for.

The World Champion Texas Rangers had a collective 4.28 ERA and the National League Champion Arizona Diamondbacks had a 4.48 ERA. 

 

[miracleb]

On 2/23/2024 at 9:23 AM, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

The average starter ERA on playoff teams in 2023 was 4.15

Exactly!  That is why we should not be happy with a HIGHER ERA.  It certainly might happen....in fact..... it probably will be a higher ERA than 4.30........this is NOT something we should be happy about!   That is all that I am saying.   :-)

[Craig Arko]

Anybody who wants to be miserable; that’s their choice. Have a happy wallow. Others may choose differently. 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

25 minutes ago, miracleb said:

Exactly!  That is why we should not be happy with a HIGHER ERA.  It certainly might happen....in fact..... it probably will be a higher ERA than 4.30........this is NOT something we should be happy about!   That is all that I am saying.   :-)

"Average" means that some of your starters will come in under the average and some over. In the case of 5 starters, 1/2 would come in under the average, 3 is at the average and 4/5 would be over the average.

Zero teams in the league have 5 starters with an above average ERA.