The Table Setter, February 19: The Outfield Movement

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins still appear to need a right-handed outfield on their roster, and while they have yet to make that move, the Arizona Diamondbacks took an option out of play. Minnesota is gearing up for their first full squad workout on Tuesday, and games kick off later this week.

The talk of the weekend was unquestionably the good health of centerfielder Byron Buxton. He is coming into camp with no restrictions and is ready to get back on the grass this season. Without the feeling of a knife in his knee anymore, the Twins are cautiously optimistic they’ll get the best version of their superstar back.

Who flanks Buxton seems to be set. Max Kepler will start in right field, and Matt Wallner appears to have taken over the starting left field spot. There isn’t an ideal backup for Buxton in center though, and another right-handed outfield option makes a good deal of sense. The Arizona Diamondbacks agreed to a deal with Randal Grichuk, and did so for only a $2 million guarantee. That modest payday has to make Minnesota excited when sorting out their options.

It remains likely that a free agent would take the roster spot of Trevor Larnach. Michael A. Taylor is a familiar option, and despite initially being projected for something like $10 million in free agency, his market may be half of that now. Both Adam Duvall and Tommy Pham could fit too, and they shouldn’t expect much more than what Grichuk got from an eventual payday.

There hasn’t been a ton of chatter regarding the Boras Four, but making Minnesota part of the market is something that the super agent hasn’t taken advantage of either. Cody Bellinger is a left-handed outfielder, but I’d guess Minnesota would find room for him on a one-year deal. The same could probably be said for both Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell. The front office failed to acquire a postseason starter capable of slotting in behind Pablo Lopez, and both would represent sizable rotation upgrades.

As one of the most active teams this offseason, the Kansas City Royals continued to make moves as well. Trading minor leaguer David Sandlin to the Boston Red Sox, Kansas City acquired John Schreiber. Adding to a bullpen that is now without Josh Staumont among others, the Royals needed to beef up that part of their pitching staff. Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha were already acquired to supplement the rotation, and Matt Quatraro's squad is looking to put a much better foot forward in 2024.

Despite the steam flowing from the Kansas City faithful, it remains likely that the chief competition for Minnesota this year will be both the Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers. The Twins are definitely the favorites to win the division, and with good reason, but they could help to bolster their chances with a final piece.

Derek Falvey has routinely shown an ability to wait out the market, and it shouldn’t be expected that this year is any different. Another move seems to make a good deal of sense, and it coming before much of the spring gets ripped off the calendar could be a good choice as well. The Twins will have just three days of full squad workouts before matching up against the Minnesota Golden Gophers to kick off game action.

With plenty of buzz surrounding a team looking to repeat as AL Central champions, the building blocks for that reality get laid now down in Fort Myers.

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[DJL44]

Michael A Taylor would be a fine addition to the bench but he may still be looking for an every day opportunity.

I don't think the price will come down far enough on the top free agents to get them to the Twins. I expect the Cubs, Angels, Giants and Yankees are still interested at prices higher than the Twins want to pay.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Bellinger is still out there. He would make so much sense here, for many reasons. I’m not certain on payroll, or if he would even want to come here, but man would that be a great bow on the offseason

[miracleb]

Bellinger, a lefty, would not make sense for the Twins.  Add a hefty cost and he REALLY doesn't make sense for the Twins.   Grichuk actually compares favorably to Taylor.  When all other options are gone, Taylor under a Twin-friendly deal would not be a bad thing as "Buxton insurance."

[DJL44]

13 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Bellinger is still out there. He would make so much sense here, for many reasons. I’m not certain on payroll, or if he would even want to come here, but man would that be a great bow on the offseason

The Cubs are still interested and they have a lot of room in the budget.

[Cory Engelhardt]

14 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The Cubs are still interested and they have a lot of room in the budget.

I mean, that’s probably what does happen. They also have young guys ready in both cf and 1b, which is a reason why he is still available. I wouldn’t at all bet or expect him to sign here, just stranger things have happened is all

[arby58]

32 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Bellinger is still out there. He would make so much sense here, for many reasons. I’m not certain on payroll, or if he would even want to come here, but man would that be a great bow on the offseason

He had such poor years in 2021 and 2022 that it makes one pause. Of course, he's still relatively young and he had an incredible MVP season back in 2019. The other issue as I see it is he is another left-handed bat, and the Twins have had their issues with left handed pitching because of so many left-handed bats. Last year, Bellinger actually had a better OPS against LHPs, but that hadn't been the case the prior two years (in 2021, his OPS against LHP was an abysmal .383).

[Parfigliano]

Were the TC even interested in Grichuk cause he seems like what they need being RH with decent numbers and $2 mil.

[Cory Engelhardt]

5 minutes ago, arby58 said:

He had such poor years in 2021 and 2022 that it makes one pause. Of course, he's still relatively young and he had an incredible MVP season back in 2019. The other issue as I see it is he is another left-handed bat, and the Twins have had their issues with left handed pitching because of so many left-handed bats. Last year, Bellinger actually had a better OPS against LHPs, but that hadn't been the case the prior two years (in 2021, his OPS against LHP was an abysmal .383).

He is still only 28, and he walks a ton without striking out much.

Again, I don’t expect him to sign here at all. But he would be amazing at 1b and be really great insurance in cf.

Would also make it easier to trade a young hitter for pitching when the time comes. 

[thelanges5]

MAT seems like a no-brainer at this point. Get it done!

[chpettit19]

33 minutes ago, miracleb said:

Bellinger, a lefty, would not make sense for the Twins.  Add a hefty cost and he REALLY doesn't make sense for the Twins.   Grichuk actually compares favorably to Taylor.  When all other options are gone, Taylor under a Twin-friendly deal would not be a bad thing as "Buxton insurance."

Bellinger has a better career OPS against lefties than MAT does. Was better against them last year, too. Simply being a lefty doesn't automatically make him not make sense.

[Gamblerssoftball]

It doesn't bother me anymore that they are waiting to make any other moves. There's a fair amount of anticipation to see some of our own developing players get a shot at the last spots on the roster. While I thought there was going to be one more trade or FA signing, this may be it for now. A deadline deal, maybe.....?

[chpettit19]

11 minutes ago, arby58 said:

He had such poor years in 2021 and 2022 that it makes one pause. Of course, he's still relatively young and he had an incredible MVP season back in 2019. The other issue as I see it is he is another left-handed bat, and the Twins have had their issues with left handed pitching because of so many left-handed bats. Last year, Bellinger actually had a better OPS against LHPs, but that hadn't been the case the prior two years (in 2021, his OPS against LHP was an abysmal .383).

I think you've summed up the entire reason he isn't signed yet. Teams don't trust him yet over a long-term contract. But a short-term deal should make him very appealing coming off his most recent season and knowing he's only 28. In the seasons he's good he's very good against lefties. I don't think there's much of any concern at all about his platoon splits, it's simply about is he good Bellinger or bad Bellinger. Because he's generally either good or bad against both lefties and righties.

[Doctor Gast]

40 minutes ago, miracleb said:

Bellinger, a lefty, would not make sense for the Twins.  Add a hefty cost and he REALLY doesn't make sense for the Twins.   Grichuk actually compares favorably to Taylor.  When all other options are gone, Taylor under a Twin-friendly deal would not be a bad thing as "Buxton insurance."

Grichuk's bat might compare favorably to MAT but not his glove, glad we didn't pick him up. With Buck looking good, MAT might want a more full-time & longer contract than what the Twins want to offer. Yet if he can't find a better deal he'd be happy to return to MN. 

I'm happy we have a great BP but not happy with how the Twins have jammed-packed the 5th SP & RPs with newcomers taking up spots from pitchers who are MLB-ready like Varland & Canterino where they'll waste their bullets in AAA & 1B/DH  where I'd like to see what Miranda can do instead of being sent down to & stuck in AAA. In the OF I'd like to see Larnach prove himself before they get an RH OF to take his place, They can hold back Martin for a little while to see where Larnach is at but if they bring someone in Larnach is toast. We have so many MLB-ready players, some of whom need to prove themselves and probably won't get that opportunity. IMO we can afford to wait in the beginning of the season, it's the postseason I'm concerned about.

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'm not happy with how the Twins have jammed-packed the 5th SP & RPs with newcomers taking up spots from pitchers who are MLB-ready like Varland & Canterino where they'll waste their bullets in AAA & 1B/DH  where I'd like to see what Miranda can do instead of being sent down to & stuck in AAA. In the OF I'd like to see Larnach prove himself before they get an RH OF to take his place, They can hold back Martin for a little while to see where Larnach is at but if they bring someone in Larnach is toast. We have so many MLB-ready players, some of whom need to prove themselves and probably won't get that opportunity.

A team will generally need 8 starting pitchers to get through a season. Varland should get 25 starts just like Ober did last year.

Matt Canterino has pitched 0 innings above Double-A and was out injured for all of last season. Calling him "major league ready" is ridiculous.

Miranda showed what he could do last season and it wasn't much. Based on AAA stats he should be behind Yunior Severino on the depth chart.

[farmerguychris]

Taylor has to recognize by now that all 30 teams have a starting CF on the roster already and he's not going to be able to compete for a full time role -UNLESS a spring injury happens (it will for some team).  Seems he's banking on that happening so he will make at least close to what he wants and be able to get regular playing time.  But - I'd love to play it over from last year letting him be our 4th outfielder - hopefully the new bally/amazon money will allow it.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

25 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

A team will generally need 8 starting pitchers to get through a season. Varland should get 25 starts just like Ober did last year.

Matt Canterino has pitched 0 innings above Double-A and was out injured for all of last season. Calling him "major league ready" is ridiculous.

Miranda showed what he could do last season and it wasn't much. Based on AAA stats he should be behind Yunior Severino on the depth chart.

Plus, one of the major reasons that veterans are brought in for the #4/5 starter spots is because the prospects have options and therefore flexibility.  It's pretty simple.  You can't put DeSclafani in St. Paul, but you can put Louis Varland there.  So instead of being able to have one of the two pitchers, you get to keep both.  Varland may well be as good or better than DeSclafani, but have both is preferable to having one, no matter what the perceived pecking order is.

[Brandon]

If Taylor is willing to sign for 6 million instead of 10 to be our 4th OF then we should meet him halfway with a 2 year deal.  I think it’s the second year holding up the deal and it’s likely because of the uncertainty for TV and streaming revenue uncertainty.  

[Brandon]

33 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

A team will generally need 8 starting pitchers to get through a season. Varland should get 25 starts just like Ober did last year.

Matt Canterino has pitched 0 innings above Double-A and was out injured for all of last season. Calling him "major league ready" is ridiculous.

Miranda showed what he could do last season and it wasn't much. Based on AAA stats he should be behind Yunior Severino on the depth chart.

Miranda was hurt last year and is healthy this year so he probably starts off close to where he left off 2022 but has to show he can do that now but in AAA.  
Canterino just needs to shake off the rust.  He was pretty much major league ready when he was hurt.  Just needing some refinement on his control is all.

Both should be up at some point this year.

[Parfigliano]

2 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Miranda was hurt last year and is healthy this year so he probably starts off close to where he left off 2022 but has to show he can do that now but in AAA.  
Canterino just needs to shake off the rust.  He was pretty much major league ready when he was hurt.  Just needing some refinement on his control is all.

Both should be up at some point this year.

Needing refinement on control has kept many guys out of MLB.

[MGX]

Bellinger would be an amazing fit for the Twins. If they could get him on a contract structured similar to Correa's original contract that would be perfect.

All this talk about RH OF is missing the point - Our position player group already looks good, adding another quality bat (either LH or RH) could give us one of the best groups in the league. If you added Bellinger to our current position player group with the depth in our bullpen & a solid starting staff that would be a team that has a chance to do some damage.

Of course actually signing him is another thing entirely, but they should absolutely be trying to sign him. 

Our projected lineup VS LHP has 8 of 9 players batting RH. Kepler is the only LH bat projected to play vs LHP. Why is there such concern with adding a RH bat? 

 

[DJL44]

4 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Miranda was hurt last year and is healthy this year so he probably starts off close to where he left off 2022 but has to show he can do that now but in AAA.  
Canterino just needs to shake off the rust.  He was pretty much major league ready when he was hurt.  Just needing some refinement on his control is all.

Both should be up at some point this year.

Miranda still isn't throwing.

Canterino walked 6 batters per 9 innings in Double-A.

[darin617]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Michael A Taylor would be a fine addition to the bench but he may still be looking for an every day opportunity.

I don't think the price will come down far enough on the top free agents to get them to the Twins. I expect the Cubs, Angels, Giants and Yankees are still interested at prices higher than the Twins want to pay.

MAT was seeking a 2 year deal. I don't see any team doing that unless the money is near Grichuk level. I'm sure his agent feels he can command 10M a year and that's why he hasn't signed any place. MAT would most likely be getting 4-7M with a possible 25 team option. 

His agent might be waiting for Adam Duvall to sign and think MAT can then fetch a premium deal from a club. I can't see that working out that way.  

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Bellinger is still out there. He would make so much sense here, for many reasons. I’m not certain on payroll, or if he would even want to come here, but man would that be a great bow on the offseason

Where does Buxton play?

Pretty sure that we are all certain on the payroll - not happening for an OF.

No disrespect here but don’t have a better way…..Big League Soorts - can only be so close to perfect, and it never is. It’s not theatre where you write your own script w/o any constraints.

Budget could maybe absorb starting pitching OR an OF, that can play CF as well, for half or less than Bellinger.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

A team will generally need 8 starting pitchers to get through a season. Varland should get 25 starts just like Ober did last year.

Matt Canterino has pitched 0 innings above Double-A and was out injured for all of last season. Calling him "major league ready" is ridiculous.

Miranda showed what he could do last season and it wasn't much. Based on AAA stats he should be behind Yunior Severino on the depth chart.

Varland is in a different place than Ober was last season (Ober had a year up on Varland), Varland will not be able to come close to start 25 games. Nevertheless, he's MLB-ready, with Paddack & DeSclafani on limited innings, he'd be the ideal back half piggy-back combo & be ramped up that way. Most definitely Canterino won't be a MLB-ready SP this season but IMO he could be in the BP very quickly much like Paddack was (not that he shouldn't be eventually used the rotation). Again holding them back any amount of time is a waste because they advance much quicker pitching against MLB hitting.               

Miranda was hurt last year so those stats should be thrown out. What we need to look at is his '22 MLB stats.

[Doctor Gast]

58 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Miranda was hurt last year and is healthy this year so he probably starts off close to where he left off 2022 but has to show he can do that now but in AAA.  
Canterino just needs to shake off the rust.  He was pretty much major league ready when he was hurt.  Just needing some refinement on his control is all.

Both should be up at some point this year.

No matter how good Miranda will be in AAA or how bad Santana will be, Miranda will be stuck in AAA.

Seems to me that Duran had some health & command problems too before he came up as RP.  From what I've seen, I believe Canterino will master those problems too. Canterino, because of his friendship with Paddack, can advance much quicker in MLB being groomed by Paddack than in AAA.

[darin617]

Bellinger is not an option simply because they won't want to lose a draft pick since he turned down the QO. Then you would have to figure out where you would play him since Buxton is supposed to be healthy now. I would have rather signed Hoskins to play 1st than Bellinger. 

With Boras I can't see Bellinger taking any deal under 5 years if even that short. He went from great to getting DFA and had a great year in 2023. That is one reason teams are being cautious. 

[chpettit19]

20 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

If the FO is convinced that Buxton can play CF and knowing that they have Wallner in LF and a gold glove 1B in Santana, they will not sign Bellinger as a bench player for the amount of $ he wants even if it is a one-year deal.  We cannot afford to tie up that much money in a player that is not playing FT nor would Bellinger want to be said bench player.  For those reasons, I highly doubt Bellinger comes here especially with cheaper 4th OF'ers still on the market.

Letting Carlos Santana stand in the way of signing Bellinger would be a massive mistake. Trade Santana for a bag of balls if that's the concern. Why would we let a lesser player who's 10 years older stand in the way of signing the better player? The Twins not being willing to spend the money should be the only reason they don't sign Bellinger. Not Carlos Santana.

[Cory Engelhardt]

37 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Where does Buxton play?

Pretty sure that we are all certain on the payroll - not happening for an OF.

No disrespect here but don’t have a better way…..Big League Soorts - can only be so close to perfect, and it never is. It’s not theatre where you write your own script w/o any constraints.

Budget could maybe absorb starting pitching OR an OF, that can play CF as well, for half or less than Bellinger.

Hopefully 100 games in cf, with regular rest, so he can be ready to go come playoff time. But having cf insurance is a good thing.

If you can add a star level bat, that’s a good thing.

And it does certainly make it easier then to make other players available in trade right?

[Major League Ready]

I can't imagine Bellinger taking a 1 year deal.  If he falls back to 2021-22 levels or even league average his market value will be a fraction of what it is today.  He is going wherever he gets the most guaranteed money.   Even if he would, the FO was clear and transparent about reducing payroll so it's just not realistic.