Offseason Status Update: Polanco Out, Santana In

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins awakened from their offseason slumber with a pair of significant moves that significantly reshape their 2024 team. Let's review these latest moves and how they impact the outlook for this season.

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika and Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports

With the start of spring training less than two weeks away, the Twins' offseason makeover feels like a work still in progress. From a fan's perspective, it's tough to feel enthused about a stagnant three months that saw several quality players exit via free agency, with zero corresponding additions.

This past week, Jorge Polanco joined the list of key departures, but the Twins finally started to add at last. Let's start with the blockbuster trade that sent out a longtime franchise fixture.

Twins Trade Polanco for Four-Player Package
Minnesota was known to be shopping Polanco throughout the winter, as they sought to unload salary and free up their infield logjam. That lengthy journey finally reached a conclusion on when the Twins pulled the trigger on a deal with the Seattle Mariners, bringing back an interesting mix of current and future help:

• Gabriel Gonzalez, OF: The highly-rated outfield prospect is the centerpiece of the deal for the Twins, coming off an impressive season at Single-A. But he's only 20 and at least a couple of years away from making an impact.
• Anthony DeSclafani, SP: The veteran right-hander is coming off back-to-back seasons lost to injury, but has been a solid starter over the course of his career with a 4.20 ERA and 4.16 WHIP in nearly 1,000 innings pitched. Seattle is covering $8 million of his $12 million salary.
• Justin Topa, RP: Was a quality contributor in the Mariners bullpen last year, posting a 2.61 ERA over 69 innings while pitching in a lot of key spots. The 32-year-old righty didn't have much of a preceding track record, so the Twins will hope he can sustain the breakout.
• Darren Bowen, SP/RP: Lotto ticket on a Single-A arm with some upside. He was drafted last summer and pitched in A-ball.

Sending out Polanco fully clears space for Edouard Julien to become The Guy at second base, with Kyle Farmer likely factoring in against left-handers. The door is also now open for Brooks Lee to potentially arrive midseason. 

 

While Polo is a good player, it's not hard to see the logic in trading him. At the same time, fans cannot be blamed for being underwhelmed by the immediate return. A couple of prospects who might make an impact for a few years? A reliever who's had one good season? A salary-dump starter? 

In isolation, this move arguably didn't do much to upgrade the 2024 Twins. But the front office was adamant that the money saved in this deal will be redirected to upgrades elsewhere, and they wasted little time.

Santana Slides Into the Mix
On Friday night, the Twins reached agreement with first baseman Carlos Santana on a one-year deal worth $5.25 million. The accomplished switch-hitter enters the mix alongside Alex Kirilloff and Jose Miranda at first base, and will also likely rotate through the DH position. 

 

Renowned for his patience, Santana adds another tough AB to the lineup, and figures to mainly be used as a weapon against left-handed pitchers. He's been a consistent producer over the course of his 14-year career but seems to offer little upside coming off an average year at age 37. With that said, the Twins will take his veteran stability and experience, as well as his renowned patience at the plate in a lineup featuring many aggressive swingers.

DeSclafani Steps in as Presumptive Fifth Starter
The 33-year-old right-hander has been tabbed as the presumptive fifth starter, with the team signaling that they now view the rotation as a finished product. As we've learned, it's wise not to always take their stated intentions at face value, but if true this would be very disappointing. The Twins set out this offseason with a goal of replacing the frontline talent they lost in Sonny Gray. The mission was to add another playoff-caliber starter. Settling for DeSclafani at the back of the rotation would be a glaring admission of failure.

Don't get me wrong, I think he could be fine in that role, if healthy. He's a strike-thrower who can get through five or six innings on a fairly regular basis. But DeSclafani missed a bunch of time last year with an elbow flexor strain and received a PRP injection. The Twins don't exactly have a great track record acquiring pitchers with known arm concerns. (See: Chris Paddack and Tyler Mahle.) Even if he can get past the elbow issue, DeSclafani is far from a lock to provide more than Louie Varland can in the fifth spot. 

 

Waiver Churn: Duarte In, Jensen Out
On Friday the Twins claimed right-handed reliever Daniel Duarte off waivers, making room on the 40-man roster by waiving fellow righty reliever Ryan Jensen. The Rangers may have been trying to sneak Duarte through waivers shortly after acquiring him from Cincinnati for cash considerations. Now the Twins might try to do the same with Jensen, who himself was added via waivers about a month ago. 

It'd be great if the Twins could keep a few arms like this stashed at Triple-A. The 27-year-old Duarte, like Jensen and many others found on the waiver wire, has intriguing traits but is held back by control problems. 

 

Current Opening Day Roster and Payroll Projection
The sum result of trading Polanco, getting back DeSclafani and Topa (plus $8M), and signing Santana is that the Twins are, payroll-wise, pretty much exactly where they were before all of the moves. Their payroll is right at $120 million, which is on the lowest end of the suggested range of cuts according to early-offseason reports.

Are they done? It seems unlikely. There's buzz of more action on the way, with a right-handed outfielder being the most obvious area of need at the moment. Perhaps the news of a TV deal, eliminating some of their revenue uncertainties for the coming season, will enable them to start pushing a little bit from their current position. If they're willing to go to $130 million, which is where loosely start our expectations, there's still another $10 million or so to spend.

Let's hear your thoughts on the latest moves and where the front office should go next.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

Add a high impact starter, as was their stated goal, and continue to augment when possible.

I know it’s not at all probable or realistic, but I would love a move for Bellinger. Primary 1b, good backup for cf, and he is still available. If they got him (I know, don’t laugh) it would be easier to center a trade package for a starter around either Lee or Julien right? And it’s hard to count on Kirilloff, so I’d go that route.

Not my money, right? :)

[Rod Carews Birthday]

A move for another starter would be outstanding if we can make it fit into the budget and avoid gutting the farm system to do it.  I'm not very confident that can happen.  I think the most likely move would be for RH CF capable outfielder preferably with some power, and willing to supplement his salary by selling popcorn at Target Field between innings.

[notoriousgod71]

So topa is the second highest paid reliever on this team and fifth highest pitcher?

[Brandon]

I think the Twins want to pick up their impact starter at the trade deadline.  Montas could be available again if he excels and Cindy back steps. As one example.

[notoriousgod71]

If they don't sign a competent center fielder I'm going to lose my ****.

[Cory Engelhardt]

27 minutes ago, notoriousgod71 said:

If they don't sign a competent center fielder I'm going to lose my ****.

What if Buxton is actually healthy though?

I will say, I have more faith in Castro and Martin, but I get where you are coming from.

Is there someone you want them to bring in?

[tony&rodney]

Nick, I had two immediate reactions. 

1. Are these the moves you (others) expected to improve the team for 2024?

2. Do you believe the payroll is more or less finished at or around $120-125 million?

These moves are not what I expected and no one mentioned any of these players among about 100+ names put forth. I did make my 2nd payroll blueprint for $120 million which is what I expected for a budget. My first budget was a silly $150 M joke (included Juan Soto for fun) one for the initial TD blueprint.

Naturally, I hope the team comes together and has a successful season and that the new players have good years.

[notoriousgod71]

3 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

What if Buxton is actually healthy though?

I will say, I have more faith in Castro and Martin, but I get where you are coming from.

Is there someone you want them to bring in?

Taylor is the logical choice. Twins know what they're getting with him. Taylor knows he's going to get AB.

Even in Buxton's healthiest year he missed plenty of time. I'm also certain Kepler, Wallner, or Gordon will also cycle through the DL.

I want absolutely no part of ever having to run celestino, cave, or mark Contreras types out there ever again. I could do without Gordon on the roster at all.

[gunnarthor]

The lineup, if you squint, could be really good. I'm probably more bullish on the lineup then most but I really like the depth we have with Lee and Martin close to MLB ready.

The pitching staff will likely sink the Twins but I thought that last year and was (wonderfully) wrong. They'll throw a bunch of arms out there, hopefully they can find 1400+ innings of solid production.

[PDX Twin]

1 hour ago, Brandon said:

I think the Twins want to pick up their impact starter at the trade deadline.  Montas could be available again if he excels and Cindy back steps. As one example.

I agree with this. It would have to be a disaster for the Twins to be out of contention at the trade deadline. The real need for another good starter is for the stretch run and the postseason. Plus, we only pay half of a year's salary and we have a better notion of who is doing well, both among the potential acquisitions and among our prospects who might be tradable. 

It simply makes good sense. (So watch them trade for someone tomorrow!)

[DocBauer]

I understand the FO having patience and waiting for the right deal. It's often paid off. But I'm rather disappointed in this offseason so far. I understand that try as they might, they couldn't pull another rabbit out of the hat deal like Odorizzi, Gray, or Lopez in past off seasons. It's apparent Polanco could bring in a return, but not the arm they need by himself. But again, why not add to Polanco and see what you could get?

If rumors are true, Seattle wanted BOTH Polanco and Kepler and would have increased their return package. If we accept that, and the Twins would have maybe added a solid prospect or two, could the Twins have added one the Mariner's top arms? I think I would have done that and figured out the OF after the fact.

I mean, Wallner goes to RF, sign Duvall/Pham/Soler as a RH OF bat, roll with them and Larnach and see what you might get out of Helman and Prato to cobble together a 5 man group that would also have Castro. It might seem a little disjointed, but I'd be willing to roll with that for a year if it meant that top SP came back.

But...that didn't happen. And I just don't know that there is time or opportunity for a deal at this point for a top arm. And that's disappointing.

NOT a fan of DeScalfini unless he's somehow 100% healthy and can return to his 2021 form despite turning 34yo in April.

The Carlos Santana move makes sense if they aren't looking for him to be a daily player. He fits as a part time 1B/DH/PH. 

There should be enough $ left to add an OF still without blowing up the lowered budget. I would think Taylor...more speed and defense...or Duvall...more pure power...could be had for around $5-7M ish at this point. But could they grab Soler...not as good defensively as Duvall but potentially better offensively...on a 2yr deal for $13/14/15M per instead of the 3yr deal he was projected to get?

Offense and bullpen that are strong can help cover the rotation some. Many ways to win baseball games. Witness last season when the leagues best staff the first few months couldn't buy some wins due to the struggling offense. Then, even though the staff slipped a little bit, the team won more games because the offense got figured out. 

There's still room to add and tweak and try to put the best team on the field to begin 2024. But I remain disappointed in not being able to add a better rotation arm, even though I like adding Topa to the pen.

[Gamblerssoftball]

I just get this feeling that they aren't done. Remember, they have made trades right up until camp breaks. Whether it's for a number 2 starter or a bigger rh bat, I don't know. But I think it is coming. Maybe It's just a belly ache 😕 

[D.C Twins]

DeSclafani as the third highest paid player on our roster is BONKERS! (yes... I understand money came back to us and that salary goes up when team control is lost... but still in a vacuum.... BONKERS!)

[Nashvilletwin]

Alcala is listed as the eighth reliever.  That would mean Balazovic, who is out of options, is released or traded.  It could be Balazovic gets first shot at the last bullpen slot.

Of course Varland really has first dibs on that spot, but it’s assumed he stays stretched out in St. Paul waiting for his eventual call up.  Having said that, who’s to say a double starter game every fifth start - pairing DeSclafani and Varland - isn’t the best way to limit their innings and save the pen. 

Gordon gets the last position player spot because he’s out of options and the Twins will likely give him a chance to replicate 2022.  So, unless things change via injury, additions, or some incredibly hot spring from Martin, Larnach or Miranda,  it looks like that last bullpen slot is the only real battle.

Also, this lineup, other than losing Gray, will be way more fun to watch than last year’s.  Bring on spring training!

[Aerodeliria]

I've held out on complaining about my disappointment in the Twins for several weeks, but it's getting late early.  I'm still awaiting something even remotely significant to be done,  Despite the grandiose announcements, so far, nothing has moved the needle. The Twins are treading water...at best....

DeSclafani...really? (With that said, Polanco had really nowhere to go, so I am not sure they could have done much better. Nevertheless. who is riskier considering cost versus potential, DeSclafani or Maeda?)

Santana? I'm sorry, but it's hard not to expect significant regression...

Staumont? It's a rescue case. It's hard to imagine him being better than Pagan (I'm not saying Pagan was worth the money, just that it's hard to believe Staumont is the answer.)....

Duarte? He needs a strike zone as big as a barn door...(I confess that he could be fixed, but it is another hope upon hope project...)

Securing one solid starter and someone who can man centerfield would cause me to do a mea culpa, but I'm not impressed to this point. (Of course, the probabilities that Buxton makes it a month without injuring himself (in CF or as a DH) are so low, they should not be counted on under any circumstances, so they have to get someone to play there.)

 

[mikelink45]

I see a real pattern in Falvey and Lavine - to hold the budget down we specialize in finding players with injuries, who have had a down year, are cut by other clubs and expect that we can fix what ails them.  

We have seen some spectacular failures in the pitchers we have gathered.  I hope this batch has some who rise up with the addition of Twins magic. 

[TwinsDr2021]

Got to be honest I don't get the signing of Santana, unless they know something about AK. (Seems like the exact thing I said about Gallo last year, but at least he could play multiple positions.) You trade Polanco to save money and spend that savings on a 38 year old 1B/DH?

[Doctor Gast]

16 hours ago, Brandon said:

I think the Twins want to pick up their impact starter at the trade deadline.  Montas could be available again if he excels and Cindy back steps. As one example.

Trading for an impact starter at the deadline is expensive & you don't know what condition the SP's arm is in? And we haven't had very good luck with it. I'd rather trade for an impact arm in the offseason with a clean slate. But it doesn't look possible now.

[Doctor Gast]

Twins reshaping went the wrong way, I'd preferred they did nothing & depended more on our young players & give them the opportunity to take that next step. & to focus on the true need of a postseason SP. Than fill up our 40-man with nothing burgers. The way things look, Varland, Miranda, Martin & Canterino will break camp for AAA no matter what kind of spring training they had. IMO is a waste.

[Brandon]

3 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Got to be honest I don't get the signing of Santana, unless they know something about AK. (Seems like the exact thing I said about Gallo last year, but at least he could play multiple positions.) You trade Polanco to save money and spend that savings on a 38 year old 1B/DH?

Gallo was signed as a knee jerk reaction to not signing Correa after he signed with the Giants….. getting Correa was why the Twins went over budget last year since they were already making moves because he “signed “ somewhere else.  

[Riverbrian]

21 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Gallo was signed as a knee jerk reaction to not signing Correa after he signed with the Giants….. getting Correa was why the Twins went over budget last year since they were already making moves because he “signed “ somewhere else.  

That would be my guess as well. 

However... Only a guess.