Twins to Sign Veteran Free Agent First Baseman Carlos Santana

[rv78]

58 minutes ago, RpR said:

AA or AAA is for struggling, that is  not supposed to be part of a reason a Major League team loses.

If that is the case then Gallo, Correa, Taylor, Vazquez, Buxton and the 1st half version of Kepler shouldn't have been on the major league roster in 2023. 

[HoskenPowell]

If he's just the 1B platoon and once in a blue moon DH I'm fine.  In MLB $5 million is nothing , plus its way better than $10 million for Gallo.   Santana will give them professional ab's at a WAY better rate then Joey gave them.

Still like to see a trade of Farmer for arms.

[RpR]

38 minutes ago, rv78 said:

If that is the case then Gallo, Correa, Taylor, Vazquez, Buxton and the 1st half version of Kepler shouldn't have been on the major league roster in 2023. 

Struggling rookie is not the same as struggling veterans.

Rookie may be struggling because he simply does not have the ability, that is what AAA shows.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

I think giving public money to organizations that can pay employees hundreds of millions is absurd but this has very little to do with the relevance of expecting a team with below average revenue to have a league average payroll.   In addition, market size does have some correlation to market potential but alone is a rather weak indication of revenue potential.  Are you in possession of a rather in depth marketing study we don't know about.  That's what it would take to make any sort of credible statement as to how good a job they are doing.  I expect fanatics ignore anything that does not support whatever they are fanatical about but it reaches a point of absurdity when adults ignore revenue when making an argument about spending.   

My guess for the budget back in late November was $125 million based on some problems with revenues. I'm not looking up what promises were made, suggested, or implied to get public funding for Target Field because it won't actually make a difference. The Pohlads do what they do. If I had to guess now and the media contracts don't improve, next year the numbers for the roster will be less. 

"I expect fanatics ignore anything that does not support whatever they are fanatical about but it reaches a point of absurdity" - Was this a veiled reference to your arguments? You are really consistent, passionate, and go to many lengths in some impressive arguments of your positions, which is a good thing at times.

[nicksaviking]

34 minutes ago, RpR said:

Struggling rookie is not the same as struggling veterans.

Rookie may be struggling because he simply does not have the ability, that is what AAA shows.

Right, struggling rookies can be optioned. They don’t lock up a roster spot. 

[RpR]

37 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Right, struggling rookies can be optioned. They don’t lock up a roster spot. 

If they are optioned they have already taken up a roster spot too long.

[KirbyHawk75]

Again.  Due to greedy Twins and MLB I won't be able to watch him.  

[Schmoeman5]

4 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Just curious have they or have they not put a competitive team on the field basically every year since 2017, record of 538-494.  I would guess the front office hates the budget constraints as much as anyone.  We will see, in a year with long term signed tv/streaming deal, what we look like on the budget side moving forward.  However, saying the Twins haven't been competitive,  or doing a very good side on the farm side, is extremely short sighted on your front.  

That's one way of looking at it. 2019 Twins won 101 games. +40 over .500. So all the other years represent a team barely over. 500

[KirbyDome89]

5 hours ago, arby58 said:

I agree with your general perspective, but Gallo wasn't struggling at the start of the year - he was their best hitter. It's a lot harder to 'back off' a player when they had put up the early numbers that Gallo did. They eventually did. For all the complaining about him (mostly legitimate), he was good defensively and put up a league average OPS (power hitting helps with that) and a 101 OPS+.

He had a couple nice weeks in April, and from that point forward he was atrocious. He was miserable in May, just as bad in June, ect. He was average defensively, and the fact that he finished with a 101 OPS+ says more about that stat than Gallo's performance. If anybody watched Joey Gallo last year and though he was an average offensive player.....woof.

It wasn't difficult to "back off," him, the FO simply refused to acknowledge he was a sunk cost. That's a legitimate fear with Santana. 

[jmlease1]

3 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

He had a couple nice weeks in April, and from that point forward he was atrocious. He was miserable in May, just as bad in June, ect. He was average defensively, and the fact that he finished with a 101 OPS+ says more about that stat than Gallo's performance. If anybody watched Joey Gallo last year and though he was an average offensive player.....woof.

It wasn't difficult to "back off," him, the FO simply refused to acknowledge he was a sunk cost. That's a legitimate fear with Santana. 

It's my biggest concern with Santana, but it's mitigated a little by the belief that he's not intended to be an every day player. If he's going to be playing 1B against LH starters, doing a little pinch-hitting against lefties, and getting the occasional DH/1B start against RHP because of injuries or need to give a guy a day off...that role is more limited and less likely to collapse like Gallo did. I'm also hoping that if Santana is cooked the fact that his salary is half what Gallo was pulling down will keep them from trying to recoup the costs past the point of redemption. But most teams are prisoners of the Sunk Cost Fallacy, so Twins aren't unique here.

If he can hammer LHP and keep playing quality D at 1B, this should work out nicely. even with his decline the last few seasons, he's still been good enough to fill that role.

[Rosterman]

Who is cut from the 40-man? Bet the Twins give up on Balazovic!

[jorgenswest]

31 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

That's one way of looking at it. 2019 Twins won 101 games. +40 over .500. So all the other years represent a team barely over. 500

How does it look if you throw out the worst season instead of the best?

[Schmoeman5]

19 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

How does it look if you throw out the worst season instead of the best?

Tampa Bay is 130 games over .500 in that same time frame with a similar budget. 

[jorgenswest]

17 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Tampa Bay is 130 games over .500 in that same time frame with a similar budget. 

Huh?

[arby58]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

He had a couple nice weeks in April, and from that point forward he was atrocious. He was miserable in May, just as bad in June, ect. He was average defensively, and the fact that he finished with a 101 OPS+ says more about that stat than Gallo's performance. If anybody watched Joey Gallo last year and though he was an average offensive player.....woof.

It wasn't difficult to "back off," him, the FO simply refused to acknowledge he was a sunk cost. That's a legitimate fear with Santana. 

His 'couple nice weeks in April' was 19 games, 7 HR, 14 RBI and an OPS of 1.063. As that baseball philosopher Kirkegaard (that's a joke, by the way) so aptly put it 'life (aka a baseball season) can only be understood backward but must be lived forward.' It's easy, with the benefit of hindsight, to say they should have pulled the plug on Gallo sooner, but after 19 games he looked like their now-found clean-up hitter, and he kept hitting home runs throughout the season (tied for second on the team for the year, in 282 at bats). He started 83 games - it's not like they played him every day, either.

[Linus]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

His 'couple nice weeks in April' was 19 games, 7 HR, 14 RBI and an OPS of 1.063. As that baseball philosopher Kirkegaard (that's a joke, by the way) so aptly put it 'life (aka a baseball season) can only be understood backward but must be lived forward.' It's easy, with the benefit of hindsight, to say they should have pulled the plug on Gallo sooner, but after 19 games he looked like their now-found clean-up hitter, and he kept hitting home runs throughout the season (tied for second on the team for the year, in 282 at bats). He started 83 games - it's not like they played him every day, either.

I am reasonably certain that in all my years reading and posting on this site that is the first reference to Kirkegaard. I like it. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

4 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

That's one way of looking at it. 2019 Twins won 101 games. +40 over .500. So all the other years represent a team barely over. 500

LOL,  yeah I took a 6 year stretch since the management change, I am really cherry picking data.  Besides if you are going to take the outliers out,  wouldn't you take the best and worst records out,  not cherry pick out the best year?   

Then you have to look at what has the team had,  in my opinion they have continually tried to cobble a decent team together.  I could argue last years and this years teams,  may actually be better team constructions than the 2019 team.  You had a lot of players catch lightning in a bottle that year.  

We have almost completely traded away the 2021 draft to supplement the big league team.  For me that is ok,  I understand the reasoning,  however even with doing that they have continued to improve the product and the high end talent on the farm.  

We have the top end players but then lets look at our number 20 to 30 prospects.  

20. Austin Martin -  has shown flashes likely mlb outfielder question how good

23.  Noah Miller - best defensive shortstop in the minors,  started showing flashes with the bat if that improves becomes a prime candidate for the big league team. 

24. Zebby Matthews - some thought was one of the best pitchers out of the 2022 draft

27. Darren Bowen - high velocity, 2 effective pitches

28. Yunior Severino -  mashed at AAA

29. Noah Cardenas - .780 OPS in high A as a C

30 Andrew  Morris -  sub 3 era across A and A+ ball

 

In the past those were our prospects in the bottom 10 or in the teens.   We are easily going 40 prospects deep anymore that have a legitimate shot at the big leagues, and some pretty high ceilings.  We also haven't really seen any of the prospects from last years draft.  I am willing to bet at least 4 pitchers draft after the 4th round end up in our top 30 prospects next year.  There was just too much quality prospects picked to not have some excel especially with our coaches in A ball.  

 

[arby58]

21 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Rhys Hoskins has an OPS over .900 vs left handed pitching. Justin Turner has crushed them too since he's been the Justin Turner we know.  And they have been two extremely reliable all around hitters the last half decade. They would have been no brainers and very affordable if the Twins wanted another first baseman. 

Hoskins signed a 2 year, $34 million contract with Milwaukee, first year $16 million. Justin Turner signed a 1 year, $13 million contract with Toronto. Santana's contract is for a little over $5 million. Do you sense a disparity here?

[jkcarew]

IMO, had to get a right-handed bat…hoping against hope that it would be a CF option. I’m guess MAT now…it can’t be Castro or Gordon, can it??

[nicksaviking]

34 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Hoskins signed a 2 year, $34 million contract with Milwaukee, first year $16 million. Justin Turner signed a 1 year, $13 million contract with Toronto. Santana's contract is for a little over $5 million. Do you sense a disparity here?

Sure, 2 to 3 times the money for 2 to 3 times the player.

The Twins got a 40M TV deal. That's down only 10M. Payroll didn't need to drop by 30M, either of those guys were affordable. Had those two still been around when the deal was struck, I have no doubt the Twins would have been offering them deals. They weren't and Santana was the best that was left.

And I'm not a 'Pohlad's are cheap' guy. To me this smells way more like some misguided negotiation strategy with Bally/Amazon or even MLBtv, and it clearly didn't work. More akin to the A's or Rays crying poor to leverage a new stadium deal when they obviously could handle a higher payroll. I'm not laying this on the on field operations, I'm laying this on St. Peter and ownership, this is not how Falvey and Levine have operated in past years. I mean, they signed him right after the TV deal was announced, like they were told they can't do ANYTHING until the optics were clean. They have gone for a bigger ticket guys in the past, but now there were none left.

Or maybe the strategy did work. Perhaps they were crying poor because they knew the money they'd get from an MLBtv broadcast would be less and they were trying for a bigger cut knowing that a threat of a lower payroll was worse for the rest of the league in terms of revenue sharing. 

[Mike Sixel]

48 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Hoskins signed a 2 year, $34 million contract with Milwaukee, first year $16 million. Justin Turner signed a 1 year, $13 million contract with Toronto. Santana's contract is for a little over $5 million. Do you sense a disparity here?

Yes, two good players signed, and one guy that's 38 and has one good year in the last four signed. 

[ashbury]

7 hours ago, Rosterman said:

Who is cut from the 40-man? Bet the Twins give up on Balazovic!

An eye for an eye, a batter for a batter.  My guess would be Bubba.

[rv78]

19 hours ago, RpR said:

Struggling rookie is not the same as struggling veterans.

Rookie may be struggling because he simply does not have the ability, that is what AAA shows.

All players struggle at times. The difference between the veterans and the rookies is the option to send them to AAA. Tom Kelly once said a player needs 1500 at bats at the major league level before you really know if he can hit or not. I think too many times when a young player is struggling they get sent down too soon or don't get enough regular playing time. It doesn't take a genius to figure that if they are playing full-time in AAA and performing well and then get brought up to the bigs and get platooned to death like Rocco does, that they won't play as well. Sure the competition is tougher but it doesn't help if your timing is disrupted by NOT playing every day, confidence slowly slips away and the pressure to perform increases dramatically. Not everyone can handle that and if your Manager doesn't show any confidence in you that makes it even worse. Veterans don't have the pressure. I'm sure Correa isn't losing any sleep at night hitting .230 for the season. His job is about as secure as his contract. That isn't the same for a rookie.

[Shaitan]

I said in a "should they sign him" piece that the proposed $6.75m was too much. At $5m I think this signing is fine.

That it: it's fine.

[USAFChief]

35 minutes ago, Shaitan said:

I said in a "should they sign him" piece that the proposed $6.75m was too much. At $5m I think this signing is fine.

That it: it's fine.

What possible difference does $5.25M vs $6.75m make?

 

Will he hit better at the lower salary?

[KirbyDome89]

18 hours ago, arby58 said:

His 'couple nice weeks in April' was 19 games, 7 HR, 14 RBI and an OPS of 1.063. As that baseball philosopher Kirkegaard (that's a joke, by the way) so aptly put it 'life (aka a baseball season) can only be understood backward but must be lived forward.' It's easy, with the benefit of hindsight, to say they should have pulled the plug on Gallo sooner, but after 19 games he looked like their now-found clean-up hitter, and he kept hitting home runs throughout the season (tied for second on the team for the year, in 282 at bats). He started 83 games - it's not like they played him every day, either.

.160/.272/.366 with a 46% (yes that's correct) K rate in May through July. "Hindsight is 20/20," is being massively exaggerated here. Do you honestly think a remotely competent FO wasn't aware how terrible he was by the middle of the season? I fail to see how "they don't play him every day," or hitting 21 HRs is somehow a defense for posting that god awful slash line. 

[arby58]

15 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Yes, two good players signed, and one guy that's 38 and has one good year in the last four signed. 

The 'one good year in the last four' was last year. His WAR from last year would have been third best among Twins position players, and he would have led the team in RBIs by 20. I'm assuming the Twins have scouts and front office types who follow players and make judgements before they sign them.

[arby58]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

.160/.272/.366 with a 46% (yes that's correct) K rate in May through July. "Hindsight is 20/20," is being massively exaggerated here. Do you honestly think a remotely competent FO wasn't aware how terrible he was by the middle of the season? I fail to see how "they don't play him every day," or hitting 21 HRs is somehow a defense for posting that god awful slash line. 

Do you honestly think this example means the Twins 'front office is not 'remotely competent?' Maybe a little balance in your thinking? It's the same FO that traded for Gray and Lopez (both trades leading to a fair amount of criticism), and drafted the young core of players they now have. Besides, the Twins as a team were not hitting first half of the year - who would have performed all that much better at that time? 

[RpR]

5 hours ago, rv78 said:

AllSure the competition is tougher but it doesn't help if your timing is disrupted by NOT playing every day, confidence slowly slips away and the pressure to perform increases dramatically.

Their confidence will turn to mush if they come up and simply do not play well hurting the  team to a FAR, FAR greater degree.

If they are not good enough to play full time, then they will learn to be a Major League part time player; if they cannot handle that, they should stay in the Minors.

[Shaitan]

3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

What possible difference does $5.25M vs $6.75m make?

 

Will he hit better at the lower salary?

Very clever.

But, yes, it does change the value of the deal.