The Jorge Polanco Trade Fails the Simplest of Tests

[arby58]

4 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

If it were me, would you spend the money to upgrade 1B (Kirilloff and Miranda) or backup CF (Castro) and/or corner OF (Gordon?)

My mind went first to JD Martinez. Maybe Adam Duvall. Either of their bats would help.

It's a good question. Agree JD or Adam would be a nice bat to have. Part of it is how confident are they that BB really can play half-time in CF. If not, I'm thinking outfield.

[I Never Bet On Sports]

21 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I don't think starting pitching is better with adding Descalfini compared to last year with Gray. I wouldn't bet on Gray having another career year in 2024, but to truly improve the rotation I think more needs to be added AND/OR the internal guys (Ryan/Ober/Paddack) need to all improve over their 2023 versions. That's certainly possible.

DH, I think they add a right handed bat. JD Martinez would be great here, but there are other options too.

Cory, I wasn't analyzing that this trade makes us better this year vs. last year. I was stating that the trade makes us better in 2024 than we would have been if we did not make the trade. That is how I would measure an individual trade, vs the entire off season. So adding pitching depth at starter and reliever vs not adding any makes us better in both categories.

[wabene]

17 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I'm going to reserve judgement until the off-season is over and the team heads north out of Florida. 

If this trade is the only move made... I'm not happy. If it frees up cash to make another move... OK... I'll wait. I will reserve judgement.  

Don't get me wrong... Polanco for Gabriel Gonzalez alone is probably a fair trade so the Twins did just fine value wise especially when they added a potential starter and what is hopefully a good bullpen arm in addition to Gabriel Gonzalez.  

However... since the bulk of the value in the trade coming back to the Twins is a prospect that might be with the club in 2026 at the earliest... I agree with John Bonnes... The Twins are weaker for this year on January 30, 2024 compared to January 29, 2024. 

1. I will give DeSclafani the opportunity to be a good pitcher for us in 2024 because who knows... however... my initial reaction is he exactly what I didn't want to see landing on our shores... an innings eater. I don't want innings eaters... I don't want a Bundy type just chucking baseball after baseball to the tune of an upper 4 ERA. If he is Dylan Bundy like in 2024... we didn't improve our rotation... we hurt it.      

2. Polanco was our 2nd best hitter in my opinion. Lewis #1... Polanco #2. No muss... No Fuss. No platoon... send him to the plate in the top 3 of the order.  

3. Julien requires Farmer... Julien wasn't allowed to face lefthanders. He was not just platooned... he was violently platooned. He was taken out of the game before he even swung a bat against the Giants because they threw an opener for a single inning. Nearly every team has a left hander in the pen. Once they activate the lefty against Julien... he is done for the day. He won't be at the plate in the 9th inning when you need a Julien type hitter to deliver a key hit because he will have been removed from the game. I love Julien... Julien looks to be really really really good hitter but he can't adequately replace Polanco if you need a right handed hitting handcuff to keep Julien away from left handed pitchers. Now of course... maybe this year... they take the chains off and let Julien swing against the lefties. That'll make me happy but it will also piss me off because development was wasted at worst, delayed at best last year.

OK... let's say that this year... they let him to face lefties... now you have removed the safety net in Polanco. You can come North out of Florida all pretty... Julien vs RH and Farmer vs LF but that prettiness doesn't last long. Injuries will mess you up. If Farmer or Correa get hurt... Farmer is no longer able to be that platoon bat. Yeah, they can call up Martin to be that short side handcuff... well... Now you screwing up Martin's development. 

I have no issue with the bullpen arm required.

The Twins may have gotten more value because of the high ranked young prospect but 2024 is not better afterwards... it is worse. However... I'm going to wait until the off season concludes to reserve final judgement.    

I thought you wanted Eddie to get work against leftys. 

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, HrbieFan said:

I woke up with this opinion.  Didn't like it last night, but availability is huge. Polanco might finally be healthy, but the Twins have to gamble. Wish we had snagged an upside SP, but a 7th/8th inning RP and a potential #5 SP helps us more than a 2B. Is Castro back to backup at CF and 2B? 

“Availability” ……….lack of, has been my reasoning for moving Polanco all along - attached to the Fact that we already carry a guy that has to DH because he’s physically limited. After Julien’s year and his age (24), he needs to play……he can’t be the principal DH & neither could Polanco because Buxton has to be assumed to be there for 50% of the schedule.

A reliever that was in 69 games and had a 2.61 ERA can’t be viewed as nothing of value, regardless of age.

Castro will play CF most of the time & Farmer is clear back-up at 2B.

DeSclafani will have to earn his spot in the rotation…….nothing wrong with adding reasonable depth. Not a splash guy but 3 years out of 7 (2 years out w/injury in career) with ERA at 3.70 or less, worth a shot.

[arby58]

17 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Unless this trade helps make another one happen it does little to help the Twins. I agree with most of Doctor Gast and his view with one exception. Trading Polanco for a top prospect wouldn't have been bad. Problem was they didn't get that "Top" prospect. Looking at the trade they got an aging .500 level type starting pitcher that has health issues. Does that sound familiar? (Mahle) They got an older relief pitcher that has had 1 good season in the majors in his career. In fact, outside of last season he had only thrown 18 innings total in the 3 years before that. That's his MLB history folks. Hardly anything to bank on there. Does that sound familar? (JLopez) They got a good prospect, not a top prospect and another throw in player that are a dime a dozen. Numbers for cash are being thrown around from 5 to 8 million. If they are saving $8M with this deal, they accomplished their main goal. To cut payroll. Remember when Falvine was hired, they said there goal was to make the Twins a perennial contender? That was 8 years ago and they have 3 playoff wins to their name. If they weren't in the easiest division in baseball they wouldn't even be making the playoffs. These guys are a joke. They haven't developed 1 Ace type pitcher for the organization. Isn't that what they were known for in Cleveland? Zilch there. Disco is 1 thing ...... insurance for Paddack. Neither can be relied upon for a full season. Varland hasn't shown he is ready, other than for a bullpen role, which is where 90% of the Twins minor league starters end up if they make it to the majors. The goal each year should be to make your Major League roster better. They haven't done that .... yet.

A better comparison for Justin Topa would be Brock Stewart. Besides, Topa threw 69 innings last year in 75 games. He was a high leverage relief pitcher on a team with a strong bullpen. He wouldn't be the first relief pitcher to figure it out later in his career.

[Cory Engelhardt]

5 minutes ago, I Never Bet On Sports said:

Cory, I wasn't analyzing that this trade makes us better this year vs. last year. I was stating that the trade makes us better in 2024 than we would have been if we did not make the trade. That is how I would measure an individual trade, vs the entire off season. So adding pitching depth at starter and reliever vs not adding any makes us better in both categories.

Cool, yeah that makes sense.

The value in this deal was good for Polanco. I'll miss him too. More offseason to come :)

[Major League Ready]

15 minutes ago, wabene said:

I think you meant Farmer

Thanks for catching that.  Farmer is obviously the better defender.

[beterday]

This trade is really about Polanco for Julien.  If Polanco stays he blocks Julien and what he might become.  Julien needs to be more than a DH or he gets traded next.  Nobody might turn out from Seattle, but there is a chance on everybody they got and now Julien starts at 2nd base.

 

 

 

 

 

[wabene]

Falvey was quoted by Gleeman stating that they would likely now use available cash for a bat not pitching..... 😐

[Fred]

22 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I don't think starting pitching is better with adding Descalfini compared to last year with Gray. I wouldn't bet on Gray having another career year in 2024, but to truly improve the rotation I think more needs to be added AND/OR the internal guys (Ryan/Ober/Paddack) need to all improve over their 2023 versions. That's certainly possible.

DH, I think they add a right handed bat. JD Martinez would be great here, but there are other options too.

Faulty thinking. Gray is/was gone anyway, therefore comparing this rotation to last years means you are trying to compare DeScalifini (great, why couldn't they have traded for a Smith) to Gray. Of course, that won't look good. However, adding De...... to the actual rotation they were going into this season with means they did, indeed, slightly improve. Yes, it hurts to lose Polanco, but the logjam in the infield, and his injury history, salary, and age meant he was the logical choice to go. We would like to think Polo should have commanded more of a return, but people grading the trade think the Twins did OK.

[DJL44]

27 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

DH, I think they add a right handed bat. JD Martinez would be great here, but there are other options too.

There are several bats who can replace what Polanco would give them as a DH for less money than they were paying Polanco.

[stringer bell]

As to the Varland/DeSclafani question, much like Maeda/Ober, I think the veteran is more likely to grant the rotation spot. I do think there’s a decent chance that Varland will be in a multi-innings role with the Twins, especially since both Paddack and DeSclafani could be innings limited. 

[DJL44]

5 minutes ago, Fred said:

trying to compare DeScalifini (great, why couldn't they have traded for a Smith) to Gray.

De

Scla (this is the hard part but the "Disco" nickname helps)

fini

[arby58]

5 minutes ago, beterday said:

This trade is really about Polanco for Julien.  If Polanco stays he blocks Julien and what he might become.  Julien needs to be more than a DH or he gets traded next.  Nobody might turn out from Seattle, but there is a chance on everybody they got and now Julien starts at 2nd base.

Agreed. Stated another way, they could have had Polo for two years, $23 million combined, at ages 32-33, or keep Julien and promote Lee (both 6 years of control, minimal salaries the first two years). Julien already had a better year than Polo last year and is 25 years old, while Lee is their #2 prospect and 2 years younger. This was a no brainer from the start of the off-season.

[Brandon]

Losing Gray and Meada to free agency made the team worse.  This trade gave us a higher floor depth starter, so we now have 6 starters.  We got another reliever.  (We have lots of relievers now it's like they grow on trees).  added depth on the farm system (this could come in handy at the trade deadline when we get the playoff starter we need in a trade) and cash for more flexibility to make more moves.  I see this trade as increasing the Twins flexibility to have more depth and tradeable assets to make the deal for the starter we need for the playoffs.  it gives our rotation a floor for the present time as well.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

The writer of this article is a bit off.  The Twins tend to trade from surplus.  With Julien ready to take your 2nd base position,  Lee waiting in the wings,  as good as Polanco has been for us,  he was a bit redundant.  Unless Julien is going to be your DH or 1st baseman,  there are not enough starts at 2nd to maximize the value of Polanco and Julien.  

So what did we learn with the trade Miller and Woo were the primary targets by the Twins, but Seattle was unwilling to trade them.  So they came up with a package that worth similar to each of those players.  

I see a lot of hate for Desclafani.  He is basically Paddack all over again that we are hoping is healthy again.  A player that has been successful in the past.  He has been injured the last 2 seasons - 2022 with a leg injury, 2023 with flexor injury in which he received a PRP injection in his right elbow.  I am putting the money in the deal with Desclafani, which was $8 million dollars.   Last year before the injury his OPS+ in April was 68, in May was 93.   That is a really good pitcher then you look back at 2021 and you see he has the upside of a #2 or #3 -  for $4 million.   If the elbow is cooked,  we are out $4 million.  However, I think at the very least he can be a #4 or #5 or a spot starter if healthy and he stated he was healthy as of this fall.   Plus go look at the contracts for #5 pitchers this year, Flaherty ($14 mil), Severino ($13 mil), Gibson ($13 mil) Paxton ($11 mil), Lynn ($11 mil), Miley ($8.5mil), Perez ($8mil).     The cost of innings is increasing immensely.  At the very least its a depth move,  with the upside to add a #2 to #3 pitcher to the staff if healthy and maximizes ability. 

Then you get the 2 key piece of the deal.   Topa,  was our version of Brock Stewart except he did it the full year.  We are seeing more and more reliefers that are figuring it out in their 30's.  Hendriks figured it out age 30, Pressley figure it out age 29.  So there is an aspect,  that I could see Topa has finally figured it out.  You also have the possibility that he is a flash in the pan like Lopez.  I think he has shown more than Lopez in my personal opinion which increases his chance of being successful, and that the Mariners did not want to give him up.  We had depth in the line up and SP last year, and this year the depth is there in the SP and RP.  We have a lot of quality arms.  There are a few question marks, but the depth is there.  

Gonzalez,  raked in A ball last year then struggled in high A as a 19 year old.  He did a similar set up as an 18 year old raking in rookie ball then struggling in A ball.  There is a little risk here.   However there is as strong a chance that he continues to improve each year,  and will rake again at A+ ball.  If he hits well in A+ ball this year,  Twins likely win the trade,  if he doesn't or the Twins are concerned at what he can do then you are better off shipping him for another either MLB player.  He does fill a need in our minor league system or a right handed outfield bat with a high ceiling low floor.  

Seattle really wanted Polanco,  and to get rid of Desclafani,  he achieved that but it was fairly costly to achieve that objective.  It also shows how valuable players like Polanco and Kepler are which I have been pounding the table for for the last year.   We did not get that high end starting pitcher, but we added significant depth to the MLB team and to the minors.  

1 other note.  Twins stated they are going to use the money to get a position player.  And have $10 to $15 million possibly higher.  It is interesting where that money will go.  Bellinger seems pie in the sky,  but would be a perfect fit for the team,  1st base/CF (to give insurance to Buxton).  The other bat I am interested in is J.D. Martinez, but that doesn't quite match up with a position player.  Neither of these will come to fruition, but that is what I am interested in on the batter side.  I still do see a possibility we trade for a high end Starter.  I give this trade a solid A but it does hurt losing Polanco.  

 

 

[JD-TWINS]

29 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I'm going to reserve judgement until the off-season is over and the team heads north out of Florida. 

If this trade is the only move made... I'm not happy. If it frees up cash to make another move... OK... I'll wait. I will reserve judgement.  

Don't get me wrong... Polanco for Gabriel Gonzalez alone is probably a fair trade so the Twins did just fine value wise especially when they added a potential starter and what is hopefully a good bullpen arm in addition to Gabriel Gonzalez.  

However... since the bulk of the value in the trade coming back to the Twins is a prospect that might be with the club in 2026 at the earliest... I agree with John Bonnes... The Twins are weaker for this year on January 30, 2024 compared to January 29, 2024. 

1. I will give DeSclafani the opportunity to be a good pitcher for us in 2024 because who knows... however... my initial reaction is he exactly what I didn't want to see landing on our shores... an innings eater. I don't want innings eaters... I don't want a Bundy type just chucking baseball after baseball to the tune of an upper 4 ERA. If he is Dylan Bundy like in 2024... we didn't improve our rotation... we hurt it.      

2. Polanco was our 2nd best hitter in my opinion. Lewis #1... Polanco #2. No muss... No Fuss. No platoon... send him to the plate in the top 3 of the order.  

3. Julien requires Farmer... Julien wasn't allowed to face lefthanders. He was not just platooned... he was violently platooned. He was taken out of the game before he even swung a bat against the Giants because they threw an opener for a single inning. Nearly every team has a left hander in the pen. Once they activate the lefty against Julien... he is done for the day. He won't be at the plate in the 9th inning when you need a Julien type hitter to deliver a key hit because he will have been removed from the game. I love Julien... Julien looks to be really really really good hitter but he can't adequately replace Polanco if you need a right handed hitting handcuff to keep Julien away from left handed pitchers. Now of course... maybe this year... they take the chains off and let Julien swing against the lefties. That'll make me happy but it will also piss me off because development was wasted at worst, delayed at best last year.

OK... let's say that this year... they let him to face lefties... now you have removed the safety net in Polanco. You can come North out of Florida all pretty... Julien vs RH and Farmer vs LF but that prettiness doesn't last long. Injuries will mess you up. If Farmer or Correa get hurt... Farmer is no longer able to be that platoon bat. Yeah, they can call up Martin to be that short side handcuff... well... Now you screwing up Martin's development. 

I have no issue with the bullpen arm required.

The Twins may have gotten more value because of the high ranked young prospect but 2024 is not better afterwards... it is worse. However... I'm going to wait until the off season concludes to reserve final judgement.    

Julien was a Rookie - being platooned and struggling some v. LH pitching is pretty typical. Can probably expect similar results wit a bit of improvement over the next couple years - he’s 24.

IMO, one cannot be the 2nd best hitter on the Club and play 80 games.

”If Farmer or Correa get hurt……”, how about When Polanco gets hurt?

To me, no matter what other deals are made or not made, trading a guy from a position of depth and getting back $8M after trading $10.5M salary for 2 arms that cost $12.8M + a prospect of reasonable value ……..seems to be a smart move.

[beckmt]

 I am the outier who thinks Varland should be in the pen.  Hopefully one of the prospects figures it out this year and joins the rotation.  Also unless you think Buxton was going to play 120 games in CF, where was Polonco going to play?  And some of you would be the first to cry, bring up the rookie if one of Martin or Lee is hitting .330 in St. Paul in June.  It is hard to make a trade when other GM's know you have to make a deal.  This works for both sides and the grades the Twins got are better than the Mariners. 

[stringer bell]

10 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

De

Scla (this is the hard part but the "Disco" nickname helps)

fini

fani

[Riverbrian]

25 minutes ago, wabene said:

I thought you wanted Eddie to get work against leftys. 

I absolutely want him to get work against leftys. 

Unequivocally. Without question. 

However, The Twins did not and therefore... we have what we have. 

Which isn't an adequate replacement for Polanco. 

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Catching upgrade? How is that a need?

Future catching upgrade that can be feasibly done now by getting a very good MLB-ready defensive + catching prospect to be mentored by Vazquez so he can be ready to take over when he leaves, Otherwise when Vazquez leaves we overpay an expensive FA catcher to have above par tandem or overpay a FA back-up for a below par tandem that hinders any WS aspirations.

[HoskenPowell]

The front office was upfront about cutting payroll...thank you TV deal.    This does that for now.

 

They have a logjam of infielders......so this lessons that.

Needed arms........so got a pen piece and a #5 starter possibly. So I'm ok with that as well.

I liked Polanco and he was a good player for us for some time. Loved the fact he was a rather balanced switch hitter.

Time will tell , like ALL trades.   The young OF may or may not be the deal breaker.

[Cory Engelhardt]

4 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Future catching upgrade that can be feasibly done now by getting a very good MLB-ready defensive + catching prospect to be mentored by Vazquez so he can be ready to take over when he leaves, Otherwise when Vazquez leaves we overpay an expensive FA catcher to have above par tandem or overpay a FA back-up for a below par tandem that hinders any WS aspirations.

The 2024 draft has a number of strong prospects in the college ranks. That's kind of what I'm expecting in either the 1st round or comp round a. But more is better :)

[wabene]

4 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I absolutely want him to get work against leftys. 

Unequivocally. Without question. 

However, The Twins did not and therefore... we have what we have. 

Which isn't an adequate replacement for Polanco. 

Part of what made the switch hitting Polanco great was his strong side was as a lefty hitting rightys. Farmer is a better right handed hitter against leftys. 

[JD-TWINS]

54 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I don't think starting pitching is better with adding Descalfini compared to last year with Gray. I wouldn't bet on Gray having another career year in 2024, but to truly improve the rotation I think more needs to be added AND/OR the internal guys (Ryan/Ober/Paddack) need to all improve over their 2023 versions. That's certainly possible.

DH, I think they add a right handed bat. JD Martinez would be great here, but there are other options too.

Not going to upgrade over Gray (last year) unless they sell some Pohlad Family assets and spend the $$ on Jordan Montgomery - not happening - Gray was 2 or 3 in Cy Young consideration (as you well know). When looking at real outcomes v. individual stats, Varland/DeSclafani could go better than 15-18, the Team’s record in Gray’s starts - a real chance, right?

JD doesn’t really play defense & Byron will have to DH 60-80 games if he isn’t on the IL. Also, Martinez has to be near $20M per year……don’t see it as anywhere near reality.

I think they take the few million $$ from Seattle and add a couple & sign Ryu for a hopeful 3-4 good months through the year. Maybe $10-$12M to him??

[TopGunn#22]

For the most part, I'm O.K. with this trade.  Polanco was going to be pushed out by Julien and Lee so like with Arraez, we traded from a surplus.  I like getting  Topa for the bullpen.  He's 33 but was effective last year.  I like getting a 19-year old top 100 (#79) prospect for our outfield.  Gabriel Gonzalez now joins Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez (as well as Rosario and Mercedes) as a quartet of young OF not named Wallner.  According to BBTV a straight up Polanco for Gonzalez trade would have been fair.  

The part of the trade I'm not happy with at all is DeSclafani.  He's just not what I was expecting or hoping for in the rotation.  I'd rather roll with Varland or Canterino to be honest.  The only possible silver lining to DeSclafani is that the Twins will now consider BOTH Varland and Canterino as bullpen as well as rotation options.  Put Topa in the pen with both Varland and Canterino and you won't need to worry as much about the health of Stewart or Theilbar or need to use Cole Sands.  

With a 19-year old prospect like Gonzalez in the system now, I wonder how willing the Twins would be to trade Emm-Rod, Rosario or Mercedes in a deal down the road, maybe closer to the trade deadline?  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

10 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Not going to upgrade over Gray (last year) unless they sell some Pohlad Family assets and spend the $$ on Jordan Montgomery - not happening - Gray was 2 or 3 in Cy Young consideration (as you well know). When looking at real outcomes v. individual stats, Varland/DeSclafani could go better than 15-18, the Team’s record in Gray’s starts - a real chance, right?

JD doesn’t really play defense & Byron will have to DH 60-80 games if he isn’t on the IL. Also, Martinez has to be near $20M per year……don’t see it as anywhere near reality.

I think they take the few million $$ from Seattle and add a couple & sign Ryu for a hopeful 3-4 good months through the year. Maybe $10-$12M to him??

I think they go depth but if you are going impact with $15 mil to $20 mil your choices are:

Bellinger- excellent positional fit,  does not fit the Twins philosophy of high exit velocities

JD Martinez- high end bat,  limited flexibility.  

Pitchers,  Clevinger, Montgomery, Snell come in the 15 million to low $20 mil range per a year.   

Then you have Ryu at around $8 mil and Hendriks,  as a reliever at $9 million which could be interesting (should be back around deadline time).  

Most likely we go the depth route,  but we still have the possibility of making a bit of a splash signing.  

[arby58]

24 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

The writer of this article is a bit off.  The Twins tend to trade from surplus.  With Julien ready to take your 2nd base position,  Lee waiting in the wings,  as good as Polanco has been for us,  he was a bit redundant.  Unless Julien is going to be your DH or 1st baseman,  there are not enough starts at 2nd to maximize the value of Polanco and Julien. 

Julien at first doesn't pair well with Kirilloff, since they are both left-handed batters. Julien and Lee aren't a great platoon option either, as Lee hasn't shown the ability (at least yet) to rake left handed pitching. That part still makes me wonder how it all shakes out - and reinforces my belief (and others on this board as well) that their primary target will be a right handed bat, either a corner outfielder or first baseman/DH type.

[Woof Bronzer]

Does this mean Julien will get to bat against lefties?

[JD-TWINS]

1 minute ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I think they go depth but if you are going impact with $15 mil to $20 mil your choices are:

Bellinger- excellent positional fit,  does not fit the Twins philosophy of high exit velocities

JD Martinez- high end bat,  limited flexibility.  

Pitchers,  Clevinger, Montgomery, Snell come in the 15 million to low $20 mil range per a year.   

Then you have Ryu at around $8 mil and Hendriks,  as a reliever at $9 million which could be interesting.  

Most likely we go the depth route,  but we still have the possibility of making a bit of a splash signing.  

IMO, Ryu maybe makes sense.

Clevinger makes great sense!

Montgomery is $25-$26M & Snell is holding out for $30M and a minimum of 9 years……..he’ll come back toward reality but nowhere near $20M.

Martinez - really no defensive value & would compete with Buxton for AB’s. Seems redundant at DH & probably out of budget.

Bellinger wants a bunch more money and bats LH in CF & 1B. Again, redundant & can’t afford.

Liam Hendricks? He’s out for the year and doubt they can afford to pay him to sit with the risk of his future.

CLEVINGER for the $$ really helps.