These Slugging Strikeout Kings Aren't Ready to Step Aside

[Nick Nelson]

Two of the most prolific whiffers in major-league history, both of whom are very familiar to Twins fans, signed with new teams this week. 

Both nearly a decade removed from debuting in the majors, their continuing careers show that Minnesota is not alone in valuing prodigious power-hitting ability – even when it comes attached to an egregious strikeout rate.

Image courtesy of Sam Navarro and Jay Biggerstaff–USA Today Sports

Both Miguel Sanó and Joey Gallo made their major-league debuts in 2015. Since then, no other player has been given as much leash while striking out as much as these two. Among hitters with 2,000 or more plate appearances in the past nine years, Gallo ranks No. 1 in strikeout rate at 37.9 percent. Sano is right behind him with the second-highest rate at 36.4 percent. These are the Sultans of Swing-and-Miss.

Despite striking out at historic clips, they've combined to play more than 1,500 games in the big leagues. Not only that, but they have three All-Star appearances between them. And now, at a time where it would be easy for anyone to look at the recent track records and write them off, both are getting another shot.

On Tuesday, both former Twins sluggers latched on with new teams. Gallo got a $5 million, one-year deal with the Washington Nationals. Sanó signed a minor-league contract with the Angels, and will compete for a job in spring training.

Twins fans have seen how poorly it can go with these two when they're not doing anything well to offset the K parade. In fact, those are our lingering final memories of both. Gallo had a nice start last year but become progressively unusable, to the point where he didn't come close to sniffing a postseason AB. Sanó batted .083 with a .345 OPS in 71 PAs during his final stint with the Twins, an injury-wrecked 2022 campaign. No team was interested in bringing him aboard last year.

But it also needs to be acknowledged what comes along with these staggering strikeout propensities: power that registers a flat-out elite scale. And not just raw power but proven in-game power. While Gallo and Sanó rank first and second in K-rate since 2015, they also rank ninth and fifth, respectively, in average exit velocity during that span.

You might say, exit velocity? Who cares. Can't be a terribly meaningful metric if those guys are up near the top of the leaderboard. But, these are the other seven names in the top nine: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Yordan Alvarez, Shohei Ohtani, Nelson Cruz, Matt Olson and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Talk about powerful company.

 

None of the aforementioned sluggers strike out like Gallo and Sanó, which is why those two haven't approached the same MVP-caliber levels of overall production. But their offensive impact is real, and it can be game-changing. We saw it when Sanó obliterated the league for four months in 2019 or when Gallo launched 38 jacks as recently as 2021.

And, for all the talk about these strikeouts presenting massive downside and bust potential, that isn't really born out statistically. Anyone who followed the Twins last year can tell you Gallo was beyond bad almost all season long, incapable of doing anything other htan launching a very occasional homer. Yet he finished with an above-average OPS. Sanó has posted an above-average OPS every season where he's made 300-plus plate appearances. 

 

Power with a little patience plays. Even when it comes attached to unprecedented levels of striking out. That's why we see Gallo and Sanó getting these chances despite both looking cooked the last time they were on a major-league field. Yes, this is a skill set that tends to degrade quickly, and it's possible they've both simply lost it age 30. Thus the low-stakes investments from two teams coming off 90-loss seasons. But 30 isn't that old, and rarefied power like that is worth betting on.

Having said that, most Twins fans are surely not disappointed to see Gallo and Sano take their reclamation journeys elsewhere. Even if Minnesota remains committed to an approach that prioritizes power at the expense of contact, it will be nice to see this plan in action without one of the all-time strikeout kings in the mix, pushing the offense toward a ridiculous extreme. 

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[old nurse]

Players who have had success will get a chance until it is proven without a doubt they are cooked. You also have to look at what type of teams are signing these players. Washington was a very bad team. Gallo is not going to change that. He will be a cheap fill in until prospects develop. He did play wherever he was asked to play. He is probably a good attitude guy to have on a developing team. Sano may have been signed to fill a hole in the AAA team. He might kill AAA pitching and draw fans 

[Parfigliano]

Good riddance to both.  Good luck new teams.

[ashbury]

I was expecting a minor-league contract and invite to Gallo as well.  I guess the Nationals are so bereft, they decided he would make their squad anyway and offered him the major-league deal.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I'm glad that they have caught on with other teams and wish them both the best of luck.  Both have the kind of power that doesn't come along that often, but the high price in strikeouts just doesn't make them that useful. 

[Heiny]

13 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I'm glad that they have caught on with other teams and wish them both the best of luck.  Both have the kind of power that doesn't come along that often, but the high price in strikeouts just doesn't make them that useful. 

I agree, and with these two teams the entertainment value of a near 500 foot bomb occasionally would be a fun distraction.

[Dave The Dastardly]

When MLB starts awarding extra points (runs) for distance and exit velocity that can be carried forward to future games I'll get excited about prodigious power.

[Nick Nelson]

33 minutes ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

When MLB starts awarding extra points (runs) for distance and exit velocity that can be carried forward to future games I'll get excited about prodigious power.

I mean, it's not like it hasn't translated to results. Sano had the third-highest slugging percentage in Twins history. Gallo has three 35+ homer seasons. 

[rv78]

The only "exit velocity" that was important with Gallo and Sano was when they left the team. It really wasn't fast enough.

[DJL44]

I'm more interested in Carlos Santana and Brandon Belt than these two guys.

[mikelink45]

What a story to brighten up a gloomy foggy day.  Yes - there are many of us who think fanning is only good for cooling off on a hot day and who do not care how fast or how far a ball is hit - I believe a HR is 1 run, no matter the velocity and distance.

Give me a Julien and Arraez any day.  Let me have a Correa and Lewis who can give us some of both.  

I have been reading about Eddie Mathews in recent posts on facebook - one of my favorite players.  512 HRs, 271/386/509 career.  14.7% strikeouts.  He is a HOF and not many can match that, but those are figures to strive for - not HR or nothing.  

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I have been reading about Eddie Mathews in recent posts on facebook - one of my favorite players.  512 HRs, 271/386/509 career.  14.7% strikeouts.  He is a HOF and not many can match that, but those are figures to strive for - not HR or nothing.  

MLB pitchers struck out about half as many during Mathews' career. 15% is above league average for that era (13.5% was average in 1960). Are you saying players should strive to strike out at rates above league average?

[roger]

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

What a story to brighten up a gloomy foggy day.  Yes - there are many of us who think fanning is only good for cooling off on a hot day and who do not care how fast or how far a ball is hit - I believe a HR is 1 run, no matter the velocity and distance.

Give me a Julien and Arraez any day.  Let me have a Correa and Lewis who can give us some of both.  

I have been reading about Eddie Mathews in recent posts on facebook - one of my favorite players.  512 HRs, 271/386/509 career.  14.7% strikeouts.  He is a HOF and not many can match that, but those are figures to strive for - not HR or nothing.  

Appreciate your mention of Eddie.  He, Hank and Joe Adcock.  That was some legit power.

[h2oface]

$5 million. Less than half what the Twins were silly enough to pay for Gallo. I mean, it’s not like the previous years weren’t yelling at the signers  “DON’T BE FOOLS!”

[Althebum82]

Nick, what a great angle and unique observation.  Nicely done.

You know, when Sano came up his very first season I remembered thinking that he was unusually disciplined at the plate and took an exceptionally high percentage of walks.  Yes, he did strike out a lot as well, but seemingly with a higher number of called versus swinging third strikes.  

After that season he pretty much showed an attitude that said that a walk was an insult and if you want the big money you have to swing baby, swing.

Despite his obvious game-changing power, he has only been intentionally walked a total of 10 times in 2859 mlb career plate appearances.  For the most part, opposing teams have been willing to pitch to him rather than be afraid of the damage he can cause.  No doubt this is attributable to his strikeout vulnerability.

I find it interesting that he was unable to catch on anywhere professionally on the planet last summer, including in his home country.  Luckily for him, winter ball has lead to someone being willing to take a chance on him.

But, I confess, I am grateful that it was not the Twins that took that chance.

[miracleb]

16 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

I mean, it's not like it hasn't translated to results. Sano had the third-highest slugging percentage in Twins history. Gallo has three 35+ homer seasons. 

Agree!  Sano actually had a decent on-base percentage because he also was able to draw a walk once in a while as well.  Probably too much baggage for the Twins....but I would have like the Twins to sign him....especially to a minor league deal!

[mikelink45]

14 hours ago, DJL44 said:

MLB pitchers struck out about half as many during Mathews' career. 15% is above league average for that era (13.5% was average in 1960). Are you saying players should strive to strike out at rates above league average?

Is it the fact that pitcher are better or that players are just not caring if the strikeout.  The two go hand in hand.  I will stay with my Mathews example.  I think we are actually seeing some teams start to go for more contact so we can check in ten years from now when I am 88.

[DJL44]

9 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Is it the fact that pitcher are better or that players are just not caring if the strikeout.  The two go hand in hand.  I will stay with my Mathews example.  I think we are actually seeing some teams start to go for more contact so we can check in ten years from now when I am 88.

The pitchers are better. They throw 4 to 5 MPH harder on average and breaking pitches are better (more sliders and cut fastballs). The 1970s were the "sinker/slider" era and Mathews was retired by then.

The slider: A concise history - ESPN

Quote

In The Dodger Way to Play Baseball, a 256-page book written by Al Campanis and published in 1954, the word "slider" does not appear once. Nearly 20 years later, Dodgers manager Walter Alston put together a huge instructional book, The Complete Baseball Handbook, and while Alston admitted the slider "can be a highly effective pitch and has attained considerable prominence among present-day major league pitchers," he also said, "The general feeling among pitching authorities is that the young pitcher should stay away from the slider until he his physically equipped and has sufficient talent to throw it properly."

 

[Eris]

That Joey Gallo absolutely stunk hitting 0.177 while producing an above average OPS indicates that OPS is not a good metric to evaluate performance. 
 

 Gallo and Sano are in the prime of their careers (age wise) if they were even average MLB players they would have multi year contracts in the 10-15 million range or more. I don’t think that swinging for the fence on every pitch has served these players well over the long term. 

Edited to add:  Among the top 30 players by fWAR in the MLB last year, The mean K% was 19.6 with a Median of 18.8.  On this list, only James Outman had >30 K%.  It seems clear to me that the best players don't strike out alot.  Is there value in coaching a player to hit 20 HR instead of 10 HR, maybe.  But unlikely if it means their K% increases from 25% to 35%.

 

David

 

[saviking]

Seeing those names ruined the taste of my coffee which doesn't mix well with barf . 

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Eris said:

Edited to add:  Among the top 30 players by fWAR in the MLB last year, The mean K% was 19.6 with a Median of 18.8.  On this list, only James Outman had >30 K%.  It seems clear to me that the best players don't strike out alot. 

"Sign all the best hitters" is not a viable strategy for assembling a team unless you're the Dodgers.

[HoskenPowell]

Sano just never seemed to give a rats rear about his profession.   No effort to stay in any kind of shape. Literally none. No one in the organization could get him to be a professional ( assuming someone tried to get it thru his skull). Got a taste of $$$ and the high life and packed it in it seems.  Had plenty of talent to get to the pros , but not enough passion to keep him in the bigs.

 

Never have liked Gallo , but at least he could play all over the OF and 1b quite respectfully.

[D.C Twins]

So thankful that neither one is on the Twins anymore.

If you want to discuss average exit velocity remember to include all the zeros from the SOs in that equation :)

[Eris]

I have downloaded the 2023 MLB data from Fangraphs and compared a number of traditional parameters to RE24 (run expectancy of 24 possible batting scenarios).  As RE24 is a cumulative stat, I have adjusted RE24 to 100 PA.  The minimum PA was 200.  There were 362 batters that had >= 200 PA.  RE24 is a good metric to use as takes into consideration the in-game situation of an at bat comparing the outcome to the run expectancy.  I treated the data with simple linear regression.

The best correlation was with OPS.  R^2 = 0.78  (i.e., 78% of the RE24 can be predicted from OPS.  For K%, R^2 = 0.0074 with a negative slope, i.e., strikeouts don't matter as infuriating as I find that stat, it seems to be true.  Also, OBP is as important as SLG.  Luis Arraez  does quite well by this metric, being in the top 20 of MLB hitters.  From a Twins perspective, Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner had the best outcomes.  Christian Vasquez and Carlos Correa had the worst outcomes.

The other parameters (R^2 in parenthesis)

ISO (0.42)

HR (0.39)

BABIP (0.17)

BB% (0.19)

OPS (0.78)

OBP (0.67)

SLG (0.64)

K% (0.0074)