Five Observations from the Twins’ 2024 ZiPS Projections

[Cody Christie]

National outlets have begun releasing projections about the 2024 season. Here are five observations from FanGraphs’ ZiPS projections for the Twins, which went up Tuesday--including a few surprises.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Dan Szymborski created ZiPS in the early 2000s, and it became publicly available in 2005, which means ZiPS is celebrating its 20th anniversary this season. ZiPS is a computer projection system with some distinguishing characteristics, relative to other ones around the web. Szymborski wrote, “At its core, however, it’s still doing two primary tasks: estimating what the baseline expectation for a player is at the moment I hit the button, and then estimating where that player may be going using large cohorts of relatively similar players.”

ZiPS uses statistics from multiple years, with the more recent seasons given more weight. The model continues to evolve, and there are always ways to get better. However, it did practically what it should have done last season regarding hitters and pitchers. Szymborski posted that among pitchers who threw a minimum of 40 innings, 49% reached their 50th percentile projection. Offensively, hitters with a minimum of 300 plate appearances saw 51% reach their 50th percentile projection.  

So, how do the Twins stack up in 2024? What surprises are there in the team’s projections?

Pablo Lopez is Going to be a Problem (In a Good Way)
Last season, López wasn’t on the Twins when the team’s ZiPS projections were released, and his total with the Marlins was well below his 2024 projection. To be fair, López has been a different pitcher since this time last season. After joining the Twins, he refined and deployed a sweeper, and that pitch elevated him to one of baseball’s best starting pitchers. His 3.7-WAR projection is tied for the second-highest on the Twins. Some national outlets have already started pointing to López as a potential Cy Young candidate in 2024, which has happened with Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda in recent seasons. 

Royce Lewis Enters the MVP Conversation
While López might be in the Cy Young conversation, Lewis has the highest ZiPS projection on the Twins, and he’s only on the cusp of his prime. Twins fans saw what Lewis meant to the team’s offense in the second half, with his record-setting grand slams and clutch playoff home runs. Lewis hasn’t played in over 100 games since the 2019 season, so his health is the most significant question mark moving forward. His top near-age offensive comp is Steve Garvey, who won the NL MVP during his age-25 season, and Lewis turns 25 in June. 

Byron Buxton is Back in Center Field
ZiPS has Buxton getting the majority of the team’s starts in center field next season, which might be challenging for fans to imagine. In 2023, Buxton failed to play an inning in center while dealing with chronic knee issues that have plagued him in recent years. Szymborski was explicitly asked about Buxton on Twitter, and pointed to local news stories that point to the Twins planning on starting Buxton in center field next season. The Twins must have backup options for Buxton in center, and ZiPS projects Willi Castro will be the second option. Behind Castro on the depth chart are players like Nick Gordon and Austin Martin. There is also a chance the team will bring Michael A. Taylor back on a short-term deal. Obviously, no projection system is going to give us relevant information about whether Buxton will be back in that spot in 2024. We just have to follow the news, consider Buxton's track record, and adjust the numbers the model spits out according to our superior knowledge.

Carlos Correa and the Unknown
Correa is coming off his worst professional season, with a 94 OPS+ and a 96 wRC+ while battling plantar fasciitis for the majority of the year. According to FanGraphs, Correa was worth 1.1 WAR last season, so a jump back to 3.7 WAR puts him closer to the total he accumulated in his first year with the Twins (4.4). Some players recover from plantar fasciitis and return to their previous form, while others are hampered by the injury for the remainder of their careers. Minnesota hopes Correa is back to being a middle-of-the-order hitter, putting him on pace to surpass his ZiPS projection in 2024. 

Minnesota’s Top-Heavy Bullpen
The front office rarely spends money on relief pitching, so the Twins have relied on internal options and non-roster invitees to spring training to find the best bullpen fits. Jhoan Duran continues to lead the bullpen group, and it’s hard to imagine the team’s bullpen being successful without him. The Twins identified Brock Stewart while he was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and saw him return last season to be one of the bullpen’s bright spots. Durán and Stewart get elite ZiPS projections for next year, and some other players aren’t far behind. Griffin Jax and Caleb Thielbar also fit into setup roles, even with some mixed performances last season. Relief pitchers tend to burn bright and flame out quickly, so it will be interesting to see who exceeds expectations in this group for 2024. 

What stands out from the team’s ZiPS projections? Are you surprised by any players? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[Eris]

From the article on Fangraphs 

ZiPS does not think Minnesota has a lot in the way of offensive reinforcements should injuries or a rash of disappointments hit the offense, as happened in 2021 and 2022. Outside of Carlos Correa’s frustrating down season, not a lot actually went wrong for the Twins last year, 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-minnesota-twins/

 

 

[DJL44]

ZIPS doesn't like Willi Castro much which is a bit weird since so much of his value was defense last year.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Sure hope Buxton numbers come through. Also that Wallner exceeds his projections. 

Mostly looks quite positive.  I like it.

[DJL44]

ZIPS has Jose Miranda ahead of Alex Kirilloff in projected value.

[Parfigliano]

I just dont get how these projections have Buxton playing CF being a year older and having had more medical intervention coming off a year where he couldnt play CF at all. 

[gil4]

52 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

I just dont get how these projections have Buxton playing CF being a year older and having had more medical intervention coming off a year where he couldnt play CF at all. 

My guess is they believe the medical intervention was fairly minor and sounded like it had a reasonable chance of correcting the issues he had last year.  The news right after the surgery sounded like what they found was best-case scenario for him.

[FlyingFinn]

58 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

I just dont get how these projections have Buxton playing CF being a year older and having had more medical intervention coming off a year where he couldnt play CF at all. 

Agreed. I will say that the Twins not doing anything yet about CF seems to mean that is what the Twins think will happen. Last year they got Taylor because they had serious doubts.

[Fatbat]

Sounds like people will be climbing on the buxton bandwagon soon.

[tony&rodney]

ZIPS is highly respected and frequently used by folks in their analysis of teams and players. Sadly, it does nothing for me and I have followed it from the beginning. Cannot ever get my head around its usefulness. We already know that poor teams face longer odds and stacked rosters project to win more games. We also know that tweener teams, like the Twins, could win somewhere from 80+ to 90+ games. Such is life.

[ToddlerHarmon]

Of note for potential 26th man: Miranda and Stevenson project as viable, Larnach and Martin not so much.

Time to find out whether the 2021-2022 numbers for Jeffers, Wallner, Kirilloff, and Julien were learning curve, or the means to which they regress after breaking out in 2023.

Love the comps for Lewis and Lopez!

[old nurse]

50% reach their 50th percentile projection providing they have met a certain threshold of innings or AB. Never mind that innings and AB were also projected.   So if a position player plays manages to play a half of a season, they count in looking at accuracy, but otherwise no.   I suppose being right half the time when things work out well enough it is a good system.  I wouldn’t use it for anything other than entertainment 

[jorgenswest]

ZIPs is more useful than using 2023 statistics but that is a pretty low bar.

[JD-TWINS]

15 hours ago, Eris said:

From the article on Fangraphs 

ZiPS does not think Minnesota has a lot in the way of offensive reinforcements should injuries or a rash of disappointments hit the offense, as happened in 2021 and 2022. Outside of Carlos Correa’s frustrating down season, not a lot actually went wrong for the Twins last year, 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-minnesota-twins/

 

 

Buxton played about 80 games & zero on defense. Tyler Mahle went down for the season in April. I realize you’re pointing to offense but these two issues certainly had a pretty big affect on season Wins outcome.

[JD-TWINS]

15 hours ago, DJL44 said:

ZIPS has Jose Miranda ahead of Alex Kirilloff in projected value.

Can’t imagine this will be a reality - hope Miranda bounces back here or somewhere. I don’t think we’ve seen Kirilloff’s best yet by any means.

[JD-TWINS]

15 hours ago, DJL44 said:

ZIPS has Jose Miranda ahead of Alex Kirilloff in projected value.

Can’t imagine this will be a reality - hope Miranda bounces back here or somewhere. I don’t think we’ve seen Kirilloff’s best yet by any means.

[JD-TWINS]

Re Projections & Rankings:

Watched MLB feature last night on Top 10 pitchers for ‘24……….based on similar analytics to ZIPS, I would assume.

1 computer generated list and 5 other “expert’s” lists ……Brian Kinney - Ron Darling - other contributors.

Gray was in the Top 10 on 3 of the 6 lists… López was in the Top 10 on 2 of the 6 lists.

I’m Old School & have no idea how to interpret what they referred to as XWOBA……..they showed the results for this stat for 2023 and Kinney repeatedly said that Pablo Lopez had the best XWOBA in baseball at .269 - whatever that number means. He was impressed!

It seems we have an ACE without a doubt.

[stringer bell]

ZIPS and Steamer serve a purpose IMHO. Both systems try to take bias out of the projection and make realistic predictions of future performance. The more data on hand, the more likely the prediction is accurate. Injuries certainly change things--Buxton, Correa, Kirilloff and Miranda were all adversely affected by injuries last year--and they can't be predicted with much accuracy.

That said, if Buxton has played in less than 100 games in eight of his nine seasons in the bigs, it has to be very unlikely that he will be active for an entire season. To a lesser degree, same with Kirilloff and Lewis (shorter careers).

[Bob Twins Fan Since 61]

16 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

I just dont get how these projections have Buxton playing CF being a year older and having had more medical intervention coming off a year where he couldnt play CF at all. 

Agree, pretty wishful thinking Buxton plays a lot of CF.  One thought I've had moving him to corner OF position makes sense.  Less wear and tear on his legs.  Plus, pairing him with strong defensive CF would make our outfield defense outstanding.  I thought Castro made great strides defensively last year in the OF.  I'm optimistic that Austin Martin could become the long-term solution in CF sooner than later.  Having Buxton's RH bat in our line up regularly makes our line up much more potent.  Especially, if he is not tying up the DH spot.

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

16 hours ago, DJL44 said:

ZIPS has Jose Miranda ahead of Alex Kirilloff in projected value.

That actually makes sense if you look at what the two players have actually done as compared to perceived value and potential upside. Miranda actually had a season in 2022 with roughly 500 PAs (483) and an OPS+ of 114.  Kirilloff has not, despite 3 years of opportunity, because of all of the injuries. Hard to project Kirilloff as a 500+ plate appearance guy when he's never been able to be close to that before.   

By the way, Baseball Reference projects 2024 performance as Kirilloff with 375 PAs, 337 ABs and a .264/.331/.427(.758) slash line. Miranda is projected at 324 PAs, 296 ABs with a .257/.318/.409 (.727) slash. Totals 699 PAs with 634 ABs - that's about 1 player playing all 162 games (162 games x 4.2 PAs per game is 688.8 PAs). Sounds about right to me on both. There's your 1B tandem for 2024 on a basic platoon with a little DH time thrown in.  

[Minny505]

That bullpen depth is ugly after the top 5. When one of them goes down, it's going to increase the difficulty to win those late and close games.

I've been pitching the idea of a trade with the Dbacks*, who are oozing bullpen depth. Their 10th guy is probably better than the Twins 6th guy. They desperately need a backup catcher. Vazquez, plus cash, for one of those RPs, like Kyle Nelson or Miguel Castro, makes a lot of sense for both teams. 

*I recently relocated to AZ and now host a Dbacks podcast with my 12-year-old son. The Dbacks fanbase has said the Twins would never pull the trigger on a trade like that, saying the Dbacks would have to offer more. I suspect many Twins fans will suggest the Twins need to offer more. That seems like it makes for a perfect trade.

[JD-TWINS]

40 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

That actually makes sense if you look at what the two players have actually done as compared to perceived value and potential upside. Miranda actually had a season in 2022 with roughly 500 PAs (483) and an OPS+ of 114.  Kirilloff has not, despite 3 years of opportunity, because of all of the injuries. Hard to project Kirilloff as a 500+ plate appearance guy when he's never been able to be close to that before.   

By the way, Baseball Reference projects 2024 performance as Kirilloff with 375 PAs, 337 ABs and a .264/.331/.427(.758) slash line. Miranda is projected at 324 PAs, 296 ABs with a .257/.318/.409 (.727) slash. Totals 699 PAs with 634 ABs - that's about 1 player playing all 162 games (162 games x 4.2 PAs per game is 688.8 PAs). Sounds about right to me on both. There's your 1B tandem for 2024 on a basic platoon with a little DH time thrown in.  

Agree somewhat on the probable/potential platoon. However, nearly 75% of starting pitchers are RH & feed into Kirilloff’s playing time.

The other mild objection is that you site Kirilloff’s lack of availability clearly but you refer to Miranda’s ‘22 season. He was out of the Show for 5 months last year.

IMO, hoping I’m wrong, Miranda has a very difficult time making the 26 man out of Spring Training.

Kirilloff’s first season in ‘21 was a partial of up & down as a 23 year old. Wrist hurt in ‘22 while Miranda had a reasonable season. In ‘23 Miranda was hurt & Kirilloff had a reasonable season.

Kirilloff in ‘23 hit .270 - OBP .348 -  .793 OPS - 117 OPS+.

Miranda in ‘22 hit .268 - OBP .325 - .751 OPS - 114 OPS+.
 

IMO Kirilloff starts 120 games at 1B - LF maybe 6 games - DH another 6 games……if he stays healthy (your concern is valid!) he’s a solid middle of the order guy that easily exceeds the Baseball Reference projections.

[Mike Sixel]

For those interested in the value of zips, there is plenty of data on line about its usefulness relative to the stats you all know....

I also will believe it when I see it with Buxton, but that has very little to do with the model, which has a hard time knowing medical conditions. 

[DJL44]

58 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

By the way, Baseball Reference projects 2024 performance as Kirilloff with 375 PAs, 337 ABs and a .264/.331/.427(.758) slash line. Miranda is projected at 324 PAs, 296 ABs with a .257/.318/.409 (.727) slash. Totals 699 PAs with 634 ABs - that's about 1 player playing all 162 games (162 games x 4.2 PAs per game is 688.8 PAs). Sounds about right to me on both. There's your 1B tandem for 2024 on a basic platoon with a little DH time thrown in.  

And it's a lousy 1B tandem. A combined OPS < 750 is substandard for 1B. Kirilloff and Miranda are average (or below average) defenders so that doesn't help either. It's a known hole in the lineup going into 2024.

[tony&rodney]

Injuries vary from year to year and from team to team. The Twins had some players go on the IL:

March - Celestino, Polanco, Winder, Henriquez, Kirilloff

April - Kepler, Gallo, Farmer, Maeda

May - Mahle, Thielbar, Kepler, Alcala, Polanco, Larnach, Gordon

June - Gallo, Sands, Buxton, Thielbar, Polanco, De Leon, Stewart

July - Lewis, Miranda, Buxton, Kirilloff

August - Ryan, Buxton, Castro, Ortega

September - Taylor, Gallo, Correa, Lewis, Moran, Keuchal

Plenty of teams had more injuries and this list does not differentiate 10,15,60 day lists. The pitchers were relatively healthy. Missing pitchers like Ryan Mahle, Thielbar, Stewart, Alcala, and Winder does weaken the staff. Position players like Kirilloff, Miranda, Polanco, Lewis, Farmer, Correa, Kepler, Taylor, and Buxton missed enough time to weaken the lineup. Although the Twins began 2023 with strong depth and receieved help from the minor league call-ups, I disagree that the team didn't suffer any notable absence from players due to injury. 

I have followed Fangraphs for a long time but they are a national outfit and have huge holes in their knowledge of many smaller market organizations. The reliance on data is entertaining but never tells a complete picture. In some ways, the sophistication of the plethora of numbers still results in predictions and writing that mirrors the reports from Baseball Digest, The Sporting News, Sports Illustrated, and others from decades long past; same same but different. It is all good fun but the season plays out in unpredictable fashions.

[LA Vikes Fan]

22 hours ago, DJL44 said:

And it's a lousy 1B tandem. A combined OPS < 750 is substandard for 1B. Kirilloff and Miranda are average (or below average) defenders so that doesn't help either. It's a known hole in the lineup going into 2024.

I agree. I do hope that both will exceed those projections and I think they have to in order to an above average hitting 1B.  I think they can improve on defense too, but improvement gets them from below average to average, not above average.  1B is an issue for the 2024 Twins. I just don't think the team will pay the freight for a Hoskins type guy, or even Jorge Soler,  I think we're going to take our chances and hope one of them breaks out at the plate and improves on defense. It might be painful for a few weeks. 

[DJL44]

9 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

1B is an issue for the 2024 Twins.

The simple solution is to keep Polanco and move Julien to 1B. That gets both bats in the lineup.

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

The simple solution is to keep Polanco and move Julien to 1B. That gets both bats in the lineup.

I'm a big Kirilloff fan and I believe that a healthy Kirilloff is a better hitter than either Polanco or Julien. We've only seen glimpses of AK healthy, but he can hit.

I also believe AK can and will be above average at first base. The advantages of being over six feet tall and left handed give him a leg up on others that have played there in the last two years.

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I'm a big Kirilloff fan and I believe that a healthy Kirilloff is a better hitter than either Polanco or Julien. We've only seen glimpses of AK healthy, but he can hit.

I also believe AK can and will be above average at first base. The advantages of being over six feet tall and left handed give him a leg up on others that have played there in the last two years.

Gosh I hope so because injured Alex Kirilloff is not worth having on a roster.

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

The simple solution is to keep Polanco and move Julien to 1B. That gets both bats in the lineup.

I am tempted by the possibility of a Julien/Miranda 1B tandem with Polanco at 2B backed up by Farmer. I actually think that's the best lineup based on what players have actually done so far as compared to draft pedigree or potential. The issue is that leaves Kirilloff with no place to play unless he moves to LF, with Kepler or Wallner in RF and the other one traded. Kirilloff hasn't actually done much so far in his career but the potential seems to be there. I think the Twins will give him at least one more year to show he can be an everyday player before making any drastic move with him. That probably means him playing 1B unless they trade a corner OF for pitching, Wallner falls on his face, or Kepler goes back to the good field, no hit 2020-2022 Kepler.