Five Observations from the Twins’ 2024 ZiPS Projections

ZIPS doesn't like Willi Castro much which is a bit weird since so much of his value was defense last year.

ZIPS has Jose Miranda ahead of Alex Kirilloff in projected value.

58 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

I just dont get how these projections have Buxton playing CF being a year older and having had more medical intervention coming off a year where he couldnt play CF at all. 

Agreed. I will say that the Twins not doing anything yet about CF seems to mean that is what the Twins think will happen. Last year they got Taylor because they had serious doubts.

Sounds like people will be climbing on the buxton bandwagon soon.

ZIPS is highly respected and frequently used by folks in their analysis of teams and players. Sadly, it does nothing for me and I have followed it from the beginning. Cannot ever get my head around its usefulness. We already know that poor teams face longer odds and stacked rosters project to win more games. We also know that tweener teams, like the Twins, could win somewhere from 80+ to 90+ games. Such is life.

Of note for potential 26th man: Miranda and Stevenson project as viable, Larnach and Martin not so much.

Time to find out whether the 2021-2022 numbers for Jeffers, Wallner, Kirilloff, and Julien were learning curve, or the means to which they regress after breaking out in 2023.

Love the comps for Lewis and Lopez!

50% reach their 50th percentile projection providing they have met a certain threshold of innings or AB. Never mind that innings and AB were also projected.   So if a position player plays manages to play a half of a season, they count in looking at accuracy, but otherwise no.   I suppose being right half the time when things work out well enough it is a good system.  I wouldn’t use it for anything other than entertainment 

ZIPs is more useful than using 2023 statistics but that is a pretty low bar.

That bullpen depth is ugly after the top 5. When one of them goes down, it's going to increase the difficulty to win those late and close games.

I've been pitching the idea of a trade with the Dbacks*, who are oozing bullpen depth. Their 10th guy is probably better than the Twins 6th guy. They desperately need a backup catcher. Vazquez, plus cash, for one of those RPs, like Kyle Nelson or Miguel Castro, makes a lot of sense for both teams. 

*I recently relocated to AZ and now host a Dbacks podcast with my 12-year-old son. The Dbacks fanbase has said the Twins would never pull the trigger on a trade like that, saying the Dbacks would have to offer more. I suspect many Twins fans will suggest the Twins need to offer more. That seems like it makes for a perfect trade.

58 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

By the way, Baseball Reference projects 2024 performance as Kirilloff with 375 PAs, 337 ABs and a .264/.331/.427(.758) slash line. Miranda is projected at 324 PAs, 296 ABs with a .257/.318/.409 (.727) slash. Totals 699 PAs with 634 ABs - that's about 1 player playing all 162 games (162 games x 4.2 PAs per game is 688.8 PAs). Sounds about right to me on both. There's your 1B tandem for 2024 on a basic platoon with a little DH time thrown in.  

And it's a lousy 1B tandem. A combined OPS < 750 is substandard for 1B. Kirilloff and Miranda are average (or below average) defenders so that doesn't help either. It's a known hole in the lineup going into 2024.

Injuries vary from year to year and from team to team. The Twins had some players go on the IL:

March - Celestino, Polanco, Winder, Henriquez, Kirilloff

April - Kepler, Gallo, Farmer, Maeda

May - Mahle, Thielbar, Kepler, Alcala, Polanco, Larnach, Gordon

June - Gallo, Sands, Buxton, Thielbar, Polanco, De Leon, Stewart

July - Lewis, Miranda, Buxton, Kirilloff

August - Ryan, Buxton, Castro, Ortega

September - Taylor, Gallo, Correa, Lewis, Moran, Keuchal

Plenty of teams had more injuries and this list does not differentiate 10,15,60 day lists. The pitchers were relatively healthy. Missing pitchers like Ryan Mahle, Thielbar, Stewart, Alcala, and Winder does weaken the staff. Position players like Kirilloff, Miranda, Polanco, Lewis, Farmer, Correa, Kepler, Taylor, and Buxton missed enough time to weaken the lineup. Although the Twins began 2023 with strong depth and receieved help from the minor league call-ups, I disagree that the team didn't suffer any notable absence from players due to injury. 

I have followed Fangraphs for a long time but they are a national outfit and have huge holes in their knowledge of many smaller market organizations. The reliance on data is entertaining but never tells a complete picture. In some ways, the sophistication of the plethora of numbers still results in predictions and writing that mirrors the reports from Baseball Digest, The Sporting News, Sports Illustrated, and others from decades long past; same same but different. It is all good fun but the season plays out in unpredictable fashions.

9 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

1B is an issue for the 2024 Twins.

The simple solution is to keep Polanco and move Julien to 1B. That gets both bats in the lineup.

6 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I'm a big Kirilloff fan and I believe that a healthy Kirilloff is a better hitter than either Polanco or Julien. We've only seen glimpses of AK healthy, but he can hit.

I also believe AK can and will be above average at first base. The advantages of being over six feet tall and left handed give him a leg up on others that have played there in the last two years.

Gosh I hope so because injured Alex Kirilloff is not worth having on a roster.