Twins Expected to Add Two Top International Prospects

[Jamie Cameron]

The window to sign international free agent prospects opens on January 15th. Check out the prospects whom the Twins will add to their farm system, and where they stack up in the top 50 prospects in this class.

Image courtesy of © Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports

The international amateur free agent signing period kicks off on Jan. 15, and runs through Dec. 15, 2024. The signing period is now hard-capped, so organizations may no longer exceed their bonus pool by any amount. Players signed to an amount of $10,000 or less do not count against a team's bonus pool. The Twins fall into signing pool A--confusingly, the second-highest cap amount behind bonus pool B.

The pools are based on teams' market size, revenue, and adjustments around spending on players with qualifying offers attached to them or money spent in excess of the competitive-balance tax thresholds. The Twins will rotate back into the highest tier of spending allowance next season. Their 2024 spend can be up to $6,520,000.

This class will be of particular significance for the Twins, as it will be overseen by new personnel. The team parted ways with director of Latin American scouting Fred Guerrero in 2023 (now with the Royals). Guerrero’s role was filled by Roman Barinas, an external hire. Barinas is a well-respected name, formerly with the Dodgers. He had a hand in bringing Yordan Alvarez, Diego Cartaya, and several other top prospects into the organization.

In recent seasons, the Twins' tendency with international prospects has been to headline their class with two or three players from the ‘middle class’ of prospects. These prospects typically occupy spots between 13-35 in a given top-50 list, and command bonuses in the $1-3 million range. The class is supplemented by additional players who have lower bonuses. International free agent prospects are fun to follow, and incredibly difficult to accurately assess, given that most are 16 or 17 years old at the time of signing. Here’s a look at whom the Twins snagged in the top 50 for the 2024 class.

Daibel De Los Santos, SS, Dominican Republic
17 years old, 6’1", 160 lbs, R/R
Per Baseball America, De Los Santos will command the 13th-largest bonus in the 2024 class. He’s currently ranked as the eighth-best prospect by MLB Pipeline. 

If you were a fan of the Twins' 2023 draft class, headlined by toolsy high schoolers Walker Jenkins, Charlee Soto, and Brandon Winokur, De Los Santos is a prospect for you. Plus raw power and a plus arm underpin an outstanding athletic profile that make evaluators increasingly confident he can become a good defender at shortstop.

At the plate, De Los Santos has good bat speed. Currently displaying gap power in games, this will likely translate to more raw power as he develops. The question will likely be the hit tool, as De Los Santos is aggressive at the plate, and (like most prospects his age) needs to refine his approach and pitch recognition. Based on his athletic profile, center field could be a viable option for De Los Santos, if he eventually moves off shortstop.

Eduardo Beltre, OF, D.R.
17 years old, 6’0", 170 lbs, R/R
Per Baseball America, Beltre will receive the 25th-largest bonus in the 2024 class. He’s currently ranked as the 39th-best prospect by MLB Pipeline.

Beltre is an athletic outfield prospect, currently playing center. He has an intriguing platform of tools that include power, speed, and a strong defensive skill set. Good bat speed and an ability to manipulate the barrel allow him to make consistent hard contact, with a chance to develop above-average power. There’s swing-and-miss to his offensive profile, but that's not surprising for a young prospect.

Defensively, Beltre is a plus runner with an above-average arm. Add in his ability to run effective outfield routes and there’s a good chance to stick in center field. If Beltre does move off the position, his tools should allow him to be a strong right fielder. His speed also adds another dimension to his game, as a threat on the base paths.

Monitoring the lesser-known names the Twins sign will be as fun and rewarding as the headliners. Luis Arráez was once an international prospect who commanded a measly $40,000 signing bonus. As more names are added to the Twins' international prospect class, we'll cover them at Twins Daily. What are your thoughts on the first names in the organization's 2024 international class?

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[nicksaviking]

Can you clarify Ramon (?Roman?) Barinas past? You said he had a hand in getting Diego Cartaya which tracks as they were both with the Dodgers, but how did he play a part in getting Yordan Alvarez to the Astros? I can't find much on this man, but his Linked In page indicates he's been with LA since 2011, unless he left for a spell and came back.

Mostly curious because Alvarez is Cuban, and the Twins never dabble in that market, as much as us fans my wish they would.

Sorry, also looking forward to seeing these future Twins suit up and climb the prospect lists.

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Can you clarify Ramon (?Roman?) Barinas past? You said he had a hand in getting Diego Cartaya which tracks as they were both with the Dodgers, but how did he play a part in getting Yordan Alvarez to the Astros? I can't find much on this man, but his Linked In page indicates he's been with LA since 2011, unless he left for a spell and came back.

Mostly curious because Alvarez is Cuban, and the Twins never dabble in that market, as much as us fans my wish they would.

Sorry, also looking forward to seeing these future Twins suit up and climb the prospect lists.

Alvarez was originally signed by the Dodgers before being traded to the Astros for Josh Fields. A wonderful trade to remember when we get upset about the Twins trading guys like Steer and CES for Mahle.

[Melissa]

Clarification, please - signing period opens on January 15th, but Twins have already “snagged” De los Santos and Beltran?? Does this mean they have made advance arrangements? Or are these two the players you predict they will sign?

[nicksaviking]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Alvarez was originally signed by the Dodgers before being traded to the Astros for Josh Fields. A wonderful trade to remember when we get upset about the Twins trading guys like Steer and CES for Mahle.

Well I'll be. And traded before he ever even played a minor league game with the Dodgers.

The Dodgers should fire Friedman. It'd be for the best, surely.

[DJL44]

I hope Barinas can find pitchers. The Twins have been woeful at acquiring pitching through international free agency.

[Sielk]

18 minutes ago, Melissa said:

Clarification, please - signing period opens on January 15th, but Twins have already “snagged” De los Santos and Beltran?? Does this mean they have made advance arrangements? Or are these two the players you predict they will sign?

It's common for international players to agree on handshake deals with MLB teams in advance of the actual signing period, often when they are only 13-14 years old.

So, while De Los Santos and Beltré haven't officially signed, it's pretty much a done deal unless something goes very wrong in the next few days.

[Dman]

Those look like two good gets.  Would be nice if the hit tools were plus, but at that age its all a crap shoot anyway.  I like that the Twins go for the high upside athletes but even most of those never make it.  Seems like almost as many no namer's make it.

As said above it would be nice if the Twins could find a few more arms at the Intnl level to supplement the farm.  Always nice to add more talent and I hope they hit on these guys.

[chpettit19]

16 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I hope Barinas can find pitchers. The Twins have been woeful at acquiring pitching through international free agency.

I agree they don't seem to do much at all on pitching through the international market, but I wonder what percentage of big time international signings are pitchers vs position players. What's the ratio of MLB pitchers vs MLB hitters that come out of Latin America in these signings? I have no idea, but I'd say it feels like it leans heavily towards position players. Would be interesting if somebody has some numbers on this so we can see what the expectations should be.

[Sielk]

Fun fact on Daibel de los Santos:

The Twins snatched him away from the Yankees. Listen from the 39:21 minute mark (the relevant segment is about two minutes long):

The Yankees guys seem pretty sad to lose him. Let's hope they're right and he is good!

EDIT: I originally assumed that Barinas wouldn't have too big of an influence on the current class because the handshake deals are worked out years in advance. But since Daibel was a Yankees prospect until some time this summer, I believe, Barinas actually might have been responsible for getting him to the Twins. Interesting.

[Nashvilletwin]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Alvarez was originally signed by the Dodgers before being traded to the Astros for Josh Fields. A wonderful trade to remember when we get upset about the Twins trading guys like Steer and CES for Mahle.

As we have recently seen, the Dodgers have a far greater capacity (i.e. financial) to overcome blatant mistakes in their trading activities than the Twins. To compete, the Twins must simply be better than their more cash-rich foes in many areas - and trade results is certainly one.  

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I hope Barinas can find pitchers. The Twins have been woeful at acquiring pitching through international free agency.

Pretty tough considering how young these guys are. But hope springs eternal when it comes to prospects

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I agree they don't seem to do much at all on pitching through the international market, but I wonder what percentage of big time international signings are pitchers vs position players. What's the ratio of MLB pitchers vs MLB hitters that come out of Latin America in these signings? I have no idea, but I'd say it feels like it leans heavily towards position players. Would be interesting if somebody has some numbers on this so we can see what the expectations should be.

IFA pitchers don't typically get big bonuses but there are a LOT of pitchers in MLB who signed as international free agents. It's actually the cheapest way to acquire pitching if you can find the ones who make it to the majors. Houston has done well at this, the Twins have found almost nobody (Brusdar Graterol, Huascar Ynoa, Fernando Romero).

[Sielk]

On 1/3/2024 at 7:56 PM, DJL44 said:

I hope Barinas can find pitchers. The Twins have been woeful at acquiring pitching through international free agency.

Well, for all the people clamoring for pitchers, here is a pitcher:

Yoel Roque, RHP, from the DR, born in 2007.

Spanish scouting report:

It says:

- fastball around 92 mph with more than 2200 rpm and good life

- curveball at 77 mph with 2300 rpm

- changeup at 85 mph

- projectable body, 6'2", 184 pounds at 16 years old

If you want to see video, he has posted some stuff on his Instagram profile.

I have no idea how good he is in relation to other prospects of this class, though.

[Jamie Cameron]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I agree they don't seem to do much at all on pitching through the international market, but I wonder what percentage of big time international signings are pitchers vs position players. What's the ratio of MLB pitchers vs MLB hitters that come out of Latin America in these signings? I have no idea, but I'd say it feels like it leans heavily towards position players. Would be interesting if somebody has some numbers on this so we can see what the expectations should be.

Yeah so this is an oft-asked question. In the current top 50 from Pipeline, only two of those prospects are pitchers. It's pretty rare to see high caliber int prospect arms. Think about the ratio of starting pitching arms taken in the first round of the draft. In 2023, that was Skenes, Lowder, Dollander, Meyer, and Waldrep (you can throw in Eldridge, whose a two way guy). That's 6 out of the first 30 ~20%. Now take 1-2 years off the age of those prospects and you have the guys they are trying to project in the world of international prospecting. These are boys, and that really shows up in pitching evaluations.

[Sielk]

Yes, the Twins recent track record with international pitchers (or for that matter, international players in general) isn't exactly inspiring.

A big part of that is certainly due to the general focus on position players in IFA. And while the Twins have been very good at improving pitchers they traded for, I would call them stellar when it comes to developing their own drafted and signed pitchers.

That said, I am looking forward to keeping an eye on Miguel Cordero this season. He was very young for his class (only 16 years old for the entire 2023 season) and had a stellar year in the DSL. Who knows, maybe he will become the international development success we have been waiting for?

[chpettit19]

13 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

IFA pitchers don't typically get big bonuses but there are a LOT of pitchers in MLB who signed as international free agents. It's actually the cheapest way to acquire pitching if you can find the ones who make it to the majors. Houston has done well at this, the Twins have found almost nobody (Brusdar Graterol, Fernando Romero).

Yeah, certainly not disagreeing that doing a better job is needed, but I'm just curious how much we can really expect and what we should expect them to be doing in terms of using their resources in that market. Is it purely a numbers game because you're dealing with even younger kids than the HS kids we see in the draft and know have the lowest success rate in the draft? Is Houston actually good at their scouting or did they just happen to get lucky with Javier and Valdez at the same time? What's the best use of their IFA signing pool dollars? To chase as many bats as possible because more of them hit or have a balanced approach or chase more arms? I don't know the answer to that at all. So I'm just curious what the ratios are between success rates, and how many arms come out of this compared to bats.

I want more success in the IFA pitching results, but what sort of resources should we expect them to be putting into that vs bats, and what should we actually be expecting in terms of success?

[DJL44]

This article says 28% of MLB players come from outside of the US.

International players on 2023 Opening Day rosters (mlb.com)

104 players from the Dominican Republic (population 11M - same as the state of Georgia) and only 8 from Japan (population 125M).  I have said before that there are at least 25 more Japanese players who could contribute in MLB. The number might even be as high as 90 players in Japan who would make an MLB 40-man roster. There were at least a dozen pitchers with better stats than Trevor Bauer (including Yamamoto and Imanaga).

 

[roger]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

IFA pitchers don't typically get big bonuses but there are a LOT of pitchers in MLB who signed as international free agents. It's actually the cheapest way to acquire pitching if you can find the ones who make it to the majors. Houston has done well at this, the Twins have found almost nobody (Brusdar Graterol, Huascar Ynoa, Fernando Romero).

The biggest arm the Twins currently have from IFA is Duran.  Yes, he was acquired in a trade, but he is the type of arm I would like to see them get.  
 

Does anyone know how big his bonus was when Arizona signed him?

[DJL44]

33 minutes ago, roger said:

The biggest arm the Twins currently have from IFA is Duran.  Yes, he was acquired in a trade, but he is the type of arm I would like to see them get.  
 

Does anyone know how big his bonus was when Arizona signed him?

$65,000

Jhoan Duran Contract Details, Salaries, & Earnings | Spotrac

[jorgenswest]

For perspective I go back 10 years and look at the top 10. By now the players will have entered rule 5 status and exhausted options. The Yankees in 2014 paid a huge tax to go way beyond their bonus pool. The amount they paid in bonus and tax was close to the Astros entire major league payroll for that year.

The top 10 from MLB

Quote

TOP INTERNATIONAL PROSPECTS

No.	Player	Pos.	Home	Favorite*
1	Dermis Garcia	SS	DR	Yankees
2	Nelson Gomez	3B	DR	Yankees
3	Adrian Rondon	SS	DR	Rays
4	Gilbert Lara	SS	DR	Brewers
5	Juan DeLeon	OF	DR	Yankees
6	Christopher Acosta	RHP	DR	Red Sox
7	Jonathan Amundaray	OF	VEN	Yankees
8	Brayan Hernandez	OF	VEN	Mariners
9	Antonio Arias	OF	VEN	Yankees
10	Anderson Espinoza	RHP	VEN	Red Sox

*Team considered the favorite to sign the player.

Underwhelming would be an overstatement.

Huascar Ynoa, Luis Gil and Brusdar Graterol were among Twins international signings that year. 

 

[Joe A. Preusser]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

For perspective I go back 10 years and look at the top 10. By now the players will have entered rule 5 status and exhausted options. The Yankees in 2014 paid a huge tax to go way beyond their bonus pool. The amount they paid in bonus and tax was close to the Astros entire major league payroll for that year.

The top 10 from MLB

Underwhelming would be an overstatement.

Huascar Ynoa, Luis Gil and Brusdar Graterol were among Twins international signings that year. 

 

That warms my cold cold heart.  And gives me hope that 2024 will be another year lacking postseason success for the big spenders.  I'm looking at you Dodgers.

👍😀👍

[Heistyman]

Why would the Twins give the 39th best prospect the 25th largest bonus?  Sounds like an over pay.

[Sielk]

1 hour ago, Heistyman said:

Why would the Twins give the 39th best prospect the 25th largest bonus?  Sounds like an over pay.

Only if you're treating the MLB list like the definite ranking, which you shouldn't.

If you compare different draft boards, you will often find significant differences and these international prospect are even younger and therefore less predictable.

Maybe the Twins think he is the 25th-best prospect. Maybe other teams think that, too. Maybe the Twins are even higher on him. And since he probably has spent the last year or two exclusively at the Twins complex, scouts likely haven't gotten any good looks at him recently.

Only way to find out if this was an overpay is to wait and evaluate his performance for the next few years.

[Trov]

International signings are such a crap shoot.  You are signing age 16 and 17 year old kids hoping they develop into something.  Most do not, even the high priced guys and top kids do not turn into stars.  Some turn into future HOF.  I remember Sano was the top guy in his class, Polanco and Kepler were not nearly as hyped and they are still here, Sano is not even in MLB organization last year. 

[wabene]

Interesting discussion, now get some pitching! 

[DJL44]

On 1/4/2024 at 4:54 AM, Heistyman said:

Why would the Twins give the 39th best prospect the 25th largest bonus?  Sounds like an over pay.

There will be a negligible difference between the 25th largest bonus and the 39th largest bonus.