Twins Expected to Add Two Top International Prospects

Clarification, please - signing period opens on January 15th, but Twins have already “snagged” De los Santos and Beltran?? Does this mean they have made advance arrangements? Or are these two the players you predict they will sign?

I hope Barinas can find pitchers. The Twins have been woeful at acquiring pitching through international free agency.

18 minutes ago, Melissa said:

Clarification, please - signing period opens on January 15th, but Twins have already “snagged” De los Santos and Beltran?? Does this mean they have made advance arrangements? Or are these two the players you predict they will sign?

It's common for international players to agree on handshake deals with MLB teams in advance of the actual signing period, often when they are only 13-14 years old.

So, while De Los Santos and Beltré haven't officially signed, it's pretty much a done deal unless something goes very wrong in the next few days.

Fun fact on Daibel de los Santos:

The Twins snatched him away from the Yankees. Listen from the 39:21 minute mark (the relevant segment is about two minutes long):

The Yankees guys seem pretty sad to lose him. Let's hope they're right and he is good!

EDIT: I originally assumed that Barinas wouldn't have too big of an influence on the current class because the handshake deals are worked out years in advance. But since Daibel was a Yankees prospect until some time this summer, I believe, Barinas actually might have been responsible for getting him to the Twins. Interesting.

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Alvarez was originally signed by the Dodgers before being traded to the Astros for Josh Fields. A wonderful trade to remember when we get upset about the Twins trading guys like Steer and CES for Mahle.

As we have recently seen, the Dodgers have a far greater capacity (i.e. financial) to overcome blatant mistakes in their trading activities than the Twins. To compete, the Twins must simply be better than their more cash-rich foes in many areas - and trade results is certainly one.  

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I hope Barinas can find pitchers. The Twins have been woeful at acquiring pitching through international free agency.

Pretty tough considering how young these guys are. But hope springs eternal when it comes to prospects

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I agree they don't seem to do much at all on pitching through the international market, but I wonder what percentage of big time international signings are pitchers vs position players. What's the ratio of MLB pitchers vs MLB hitters that come out of Latin America in these signings? I have no idea, but I'd say it feels like it leans heavily towards position players. Would be interesting if somebody has some numbers on this so we can see what the expectations should be.

IFA pitchers don't typically get big bonuses but there are a LOT of pitchers in MLB who signed as international free agents. It's actually the cheapest way to acquire pitching if you can find the ones who make it to the majors. Houston has done well at this, the Twins have found almost nobody (Brusdar Graterol, Huascar Ynoa, Fernando Romero).

On 1/3/2024 at 7:56 PM, DJL44 said:

I hope Barinas can find pitchers. The Twins have been woeful at acquiring pitching through international free agency.

Well, for all the people clamoring for pitchers, here is a pitcher:

Yoel Roque, RHP, from the DR, born in 2007.

Spanish scouting report:

It says:

- fastball around 92 mph with more than 2200 rpm and good life

- curveball at 77 mph with 2300 rpm

- changeup at 85 mph

- projectable body, 6'2", 184 pounds at 16 years old

If you want to see video, he has posted some stuff on his Instagram profile.

I have no idea how good he is in relation to other prospects of this class, though.

Yes, the Twins recent track record with international pitchers (or for that matter, international players in general) isn't exactly inspiring.

A big part of that is certainly due to the general focus on position players in IFA. And while the Twins have been very good at improving pitchers they traded for, I would call them stellar when it comes to developing their own drafted and signed pitchers.

That said, I am looking forward to keeping an eye on Miguel Cordero this season. He was very young for his class (only 16 years old for the entire 2023 season) and had a stellar year in the DSL. Who knows, maybe he will become the international development success we have been waiting for?

This article says 28% of MLB players come from outside of the US.

International players on 2023 Opening Day rosters (mlb.com)

104 players from the Dominican Republic (population 11M - same as the state of Georgia) and only 8 from Japan (population 125M).  I have said before that there are at least 25 more Japanese players who could contribute in MLB. The number might even be as high as 90 players in Japan who would make an MLB 40-man roster. There were at least a dozen pitchers with better stats than Trevor Bauer (including Yamamoto and Imanaga).

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

IFA pitchers don't typically get big bonuses but there are a LOT of pitchers in MLB who signed as international free agents. It's actually the cheapest way to acquire pitching if you can find the ones who make it to the majors. Houston has done well at this, the Twins have found almost nobody (Brusdar Graterol, Huascar Ynoa, Fernando Romero).

The biggest arm the Twins currently have from IFA is Duran.  Yes, he was acquired in a trade, but he is the type of arm I would like to see them get.  
 

Does anyone know how big his bonus was when Arizona signed him?

33 minutes ago, roger said:

The biggest arm the Twins currently have from IFA is Duran.  Yes, he was acquired in a trade, but he is the type of arm I would like to see them get.  
 

Does anyone know how big his bonus was when Arizona signed him?

$65,000

Jhoan Duran Contract Details, Salaries, & Earnings | Spotrac

For perspective I go back 10 years and look at the top 10. By now the players will have entered rule 5 status and exhausted options. The Yankees in 2014 paid a huge tax to go way beyond their bonus pool. The amount they paid in bonus and tax was close to the Astros entire major league payroll for that year.

The top 10 from MLB

Quote

TOP INTERNATIONAL PROSPECTS

No.	Player	Pos.	Home	Favorite*
1	Dermis Garcia	SS	DR	Yankees
2	Nelson Gomez	3B	DR	Yankees
3	Adrian Rondon	SS	DR	Rays
4	Gilbert Lara	SS	DR	Brewers
5	Juan DeLeon	OF	DR	Yankees
6	Christopher Acosta	RHP	DR	Red Sox
7	Jonathan Amundaray	OF	VEN	Yankees
8	Brayan Hernandez	OF	VEN	Mariners
9	Antonio Arias	OF	VEN	Yankees
10	Anderson Espinoza	RHP	VEN	Red Sox

*Team considered the favorite to sign the player.

Underwhelming would be an overstatement.

Huascar Ynoa, Luis Gil and Brusdar Graterol were among Twins international signings that year. 

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

For perspective I go back 10 years and look at the top 10. By now the players will have entered rule 5 status and exhausted options. The Yankees in 2014 paid a huge tax to go way beyond their bonus pool. The amount they paid in bonus and tax was close to the Astros entire major league payroll for that year.

The top 10 from MLB

Underwhelming would be an overstatement.

Huascar Ynoa, Luis Gil and Brusdar Graterol were among Twins international signings that year. 

 

That warms my cold cold heart.  And gives me hope that 2024 will be another year lacking postseason success for the big spenders.  I'm looking at you Dodgers.

👍😀👍

Why would the Twins give the 39th best prospect the 25th largest bonus?  Sounds like an over pay.

1 hour ago, Heistyman said:

Why would the Twins give the 39th best prospect the 25th largest bonus?  Sounds like an over pay.

Only if you're treating the MLB list like the definite ranking, which you shouldn't.

If you compare different draft boards, you will often find significant differences and these international prospect are even younger and therefore less predictable.

Maybe the Twins think he is the 25th-best prospect. Maybe other teams think that, too. Maybe the Twins are even higher on him. And since he probably has spent the last year or two exclusively at the Twins complex, scouts likely haven't gotten any good looks at him recently.

Only way to find out if this was an overpay is to wait and evaluate his performance for the next few years.

International signings are such a crap shoot.  You are signing age 16 and 17 year old kids hoping they develop into something.  Most do not, even the high priced guys and top kids do not turn into stars.  Some turn into future HOF.  I remember Sano was the top guy in his class, Polanco and Kepler were not nearly as hyped and they are still here, Sano is not even in MLB organization last year. 

Interesting discussion, now get some pitching! 

On 1/4/2024 at 4:54 AM, Heistyman said:

Why would the Twins give the 39th best prospect the 25th largest bonus?  Sounds like an over pay.

There will be a negligible difference between the 25th largest bonus and the 39th largest bonus.