Projecting Walker Jenkins's Percentile Outcomes

[Cody Schoenmann]

Will the fifth overall pick sink or swim?

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

Despite the minor-league signings of Niko Goodrum and AJ Alexy and the one-year, $950,000 acquisition of reliever Josh Staumont, not much excitement has occurred in Twins Territory leading in the New Year. Though we could discuss the impending television deal for the umpteenth time, it feels like a fun time to project what a successful or unsuccessful career would look like for the most exciting prospect in recent Twins history, Walker Jenkins, while comparing him to players of baseball past and present. Here are the criteria for the exercise below:

• Each player selected as a placeholder for Jenkins' potential percentile outcome must have been a left-hitting outfield prospect selected between picks one and ten of the MLB Draft, from the years 2000 through 2020. Next to the player's name is how many Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs (fWAR) they generated throughout their careers (the majority of player's careers are still ongoing). 

Now that the stipulations are laid out and, hopefully, understandable, let's jump into the list:

"0th" Percentile - Drew Meyer - -0.2 Career fWAR
Meyer, who was selected 10th overall by the Texas Rangers in the 2002 MLB Draft, spent three years in the Minors before making his big-league debut during the 2006 season. He hit .214/.214/.214 with three hits, zero home runs, zero walks, a 53.3% strikeout rate, and a 0 wRC+ over 15 plate appearances. After that bitter cup of coffee, Meyer bounced between the Rangers', Houston Astros', and Los Angeles Angels' minor-league systems, but he never made it back to the majors.

Instead of being used as an actual player to whom Jenkins can be quantifiably compared, Meyer symbolizes the unfortunate possibility that Jenkins's potential could go entirely to waste. Meyer only played in those five MLB games, and if Jenkins were to do the same, his career would be deemed a colossal failure for the Twins, his agent Scott Boras, and himself. At the very least, Jenkins appears to be a genuine talent who will be an MLB player for an extended period. Yet, the bleak possibility of him having a similar career to Meyer's must be acknowledged. 

10th Percentile - JJ Bleday - -0.2 Career fWAR 
The first player used as a genuine comparison was the fourth overall pick of the 2019 MLB Draft. Despite being a prized prospect out of college at Vanderbilt, Bleday has yet to find consistent footing at the highest level. Though the reason for his struggles has yet to be pinned down, many have blamed the combination of a hitch in his swing, his slim frame, and a lack of proper development by the Marlins for his lackluster performance. 

Though this is unfortunate for Bleday (now a member of the Oakland Athletics), Jenkins doesn't possess a hitch in his swing the same physical limitations. Also, the Twins have earned a reputation as one of the best franchises at developing young hitters, as evidenced by Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Alex Kirilloff, and Matt Wallner, among other success stories. Bleday could still turn his career around, but he is quickly leaving the realm of reclamation projects and entering "Quad-A" player territory. If Jenkins were to venture down the same path, his career would have been an unsatisfying disappointment.

20th Percentile - Jarred Kelenic - 0.7 Career fWAR
Drafted sixth overall by the New York Mets in 2018, Kelenic has yet to find consistent footing in MLB. What separates the Waukesha, Wis. native from Bleday is that he has generated a handful of impressive months at the big-league level, while contributing to the competitive Seattle Mariners. 

As evidenced by being traded for by the consistently successful Atlanta Braves this past month, Kelenic still holds some appeal. He might yet live up to the lofty expectations placed on the former fourth-ranked prospect in baseball. Regardless, Jenkins, a left-handed hitting high school phenom, finds himself in a situation similar to Kelenic's when the Mets first selected him. Assuming Jenkins won't be part of a blockbuster trade like Kelenic was, Jenkins will be able to find stability with one organization as he develops, which is typically a vital part of maximizing a young player's initial success in the high minors and Major League level.

30th Percentile - David Dahl - 1.8 Career fWAR
The Rockies' first-round pick back in 2012 provides a fascinating look into what qualifies as a successful career. After making his debut in 2016 at 22, the young outfielder posted three straight seasons with a wRC+ above 110, and even made the National League All-Star team in 2019. Then, Dahl fell off a cliff, posting a negative Wins Above Replacement at Baseball Reference (bWAR) in 2020 and 2021 with the Rockies and Rangers, respectively. After taking a year off in 2022, Dahl returned to MLB, playing four games for the San Diego Padres in 2023, generating one hit (a home run) over nine plate appearances before getting designated for assignment and electing free agency in June. 

The exact reason for the oft-injured Dahl's fall from grace is unknown. Yet, there is a direct correlation between his immense drop in production and a gruesome ankle injury he suffered in early August, 2019. Though Dahl's MLB career has likely come to a disheartening end, he symbolizes the idea of a young outfield prospect whose promising career was carried off course by injuries. Jenkins suffered relatively minor injuries in high school, including undergoing surgery for a hip impingement his freshman year and having to nurse a broken hamate bone his senior year before getting selected fifth overall by the Twins this summer. Nobody wants to think about injuries, especially when it comes to a top-five pick whose potential seems limitless. Yet, it is an unfortunately realistic outcome that must be considered when overturning every potential stone to assess a player's potential career outcomes.

40th Percentile - Austin Meadows - 5.8 Career fWAR
Part of the infamous trade in which Pittsburgh sent Tyler Glasnow, Shane Baz, and himself to the Tampa Bay Rays for Chris Archer, Meadows quickly became one of the most promising young stars in Major League Baseball. In 2019, he posted a 144 OPS+ and finished 14th in American League Most Valuable Player voting. Unfortunately, like Dahl, professional baseball has not been kind to him since. 

Since his 4.5 fWAR 2019 season, Meadows has played in only 220 games, and his future in baseball has become a pressing question, as he was non-tendered by his most recent team, the Detroit Tigers, and has undergone significant physical and mental health challenges the last handful of seasons. Interestingly, Jenkins, a bulkier outfielder with a unique mix of speed and power, is often compared to Meadows by fans and pundits. If Jenkins can become the 2019 version of Meadows for a consistent period, the Twins will enjoy the services of one of the best young outfielders in the sport.

50th Percentile - Andrew Benintendi - 12.9 Career fWAR
Selected seventh overall by the Boston Red Sox out of the University of Arkansas, Benintendi instantly became one of the highest-ranked prospects in Major League Baseball. Once dubbed a "once-in-a-decade hitter," Benintendi has combined exceptional hand-eye coordination and pitch recognition to produce above-average seasons with the Red Sox in 2018 and the Kansas City Royals/New York Yankees in 2021. Unfortunately (well, fortunately for the Twins), Benintendi was one of the worst players in baseball in 2023, mixing an uninspiring .652 OPS and -11 Outs Above Average (OAA) in left field to become a 0 fWAR player in the first year of his five-year, $75-million contract with the Chicago White Sox.

Jenkins has the same elite hand-eye coordination and pitch recognition skills as Benintendi, but much more raw power that projects to translate well into in-game power and a more well-rounded defensive profile. He could stay in center field, instead of being one of the worst fielders at what is arguably the position lowest on the defensive spectrum. Despite shaky and inconsistent play throughout his career, Benintendi has plenty of tools that translate well to MLB. If Jenkins can mimic Benintendi in some aspects while excelling in others, the Twins will have a perennial All-Star and MVP candidate on their hands. 

60th Percentile - Michael Conforto - 20.5 Career fWAR
We have now reached the "positive outcome" section, and the first player who represents a positive was the 10th overall selection in the 2014 MLB Draft, by the Mets. After putting together a stretch of generating between 3.5-4.9 fWAR from 2017 through 2019, Conforto's performance has dipped, and he has yet to be the same player since.

He missed the entire 2022 season after undergoing shoulder surgery earlier that season, before signing a two-year, $36 million contract with the San Francisco Giants this past January. Conforto isn't the player he once was. However, his above-average three-year peak and the fact that he is still a starting-caliber player entering his ninth season are, at the bare minimum, respectable outcomes for even a top-10 pick. Though Jenkins having the same career trajectory as Conforto would be viewed as a loss for those who follow the Twins, selecting a nine-year starter with the fifth pick in the draft would undoubtedly be a win from a resource allocation standpoint.

70th Percentile - Alex Gordon - 32 Career fWAR
Gordon, the second overall pick in 2002, is another fascinating case of how success is defined. After posting only one season with a wRC+ above 100 in his first four seasons at the highest level, Gordon became one of the best players in baseball in 2011, producing a 140 wRC+ over 151 games played. After his incredible season, Gordon and the Royals went on one of the best runs in recent MLB history by going to back-to-back World Series in 2014 and 2015. During this stretch, Gordon produced a wRC+ above 120 in 2012, 2014, and 2015, while being a key cog in the Royals lineup and a defensive stalwart in left field. Unfortunately, Gordon returned to Earth and produced five consecutive seasons with a wRC+ below 100 from 2016 through 2020. 

Should a player who spent the majority of his career performing at a below-average rate be defined as a success story? In Gordon's case, the answer is undoubtedly yes, as the five-season peak he produced is greater than what the majority of players manage in their careers. He was an anchor of back-to-back World Series teams. If Jenkins has a career similar to that of Gordon, he would still have to be part of a terrific run of successful Twins teams to achieve the same recognition and goodwill. Jenkins projects to be a more consistently productive player, but whether he can reach the same heights as Gordon at the pinnacle of his success is yet to be seen. 

80th Percentile - Nick Markakis - 28.7 Career fWAR
Selected seventh overall in the 2003 Draft by the Baltimore Orioles, Markakis manufactured one of the most understated, respectable 15-year-long careers in baseball history. Playing for the Orioles and Braves, Markakis hit .288/.357/.423, with 2,388 hits and 189 home runs over 9,321 plate appearances and 2,154 games played. Markakis posted 11 seasons with an OPS+ over 100, but he netted only one All-Star nod (in 2019), despite posting a 7.4 bWAR season with the Orioles in 2008. 

Regardless, Markakis is one of the least talked-about success stories in recent MLB history. Though Jenkins projects to have a career with more extraordinary peaks, if he were able to produce 15 quality seasons where he never played fewer than 104 games, he would undoubtedly become one of the best outfielders in Twins, history alongside players like Torii Hunter, Bob Allison, Tony Oliva, and Kirby Puckett.  

90th Percentile - Kyle Tucker - 16.3 Career fWAR
Tucker is ahead of Markakis on this list, as he is one of the best young players in Major League Baseball right now. A newfound perennial MVP candidate, he has generated an fWAR above 4.7 in each of the past three seasons, while being a mainstay at the top of the always championship-caliber Astros lineup. 

If it weren't for the player below, Tucker and his production over the past three seasons could be the 100th-percentile outcome for Jenkins and the Twins using the abovementioned criteria. Tucker's smooth left-handed swing controls the zone like few others in the league, while possessing the ability to hit 30 home runs or more each year. If Tucker, 26, can produce at his current rate for the next six or so seasons, he will be considered one of the best players of the 2020s. If Jenkins can replicate Tucker's early-career success, the Twins could have one of the most formidable young outfielders in the game in the not-too-distant future.

100th Percentile - Bryce Harper - 47.5 Career fWAR
Finally, the "100th-Percentile" outcome is none other than "Baseball's Chosen One." Selected first overall in the 2010 MLB Draft by the Washington Nationals, Harper has been one of the best players in Major League Baseball over the past decade. Whether it be winning Rookie of the Year in 2012, winning the Most Valuable Player Award for two different franchises, or posting what is arguably the greatest single-season offensive performance of the last decade in 2015, Harper has lived up to his phenom status in every way imaginable. 

He's yet to post a season with an OPS+ below 110. Although the Philadelphia Phillies recently announced the plan to transition Harper, who underwent Tommy John surgery in 2022, from the outfield to become their full-time first baseman, he was one of the best defensive right fielders in baseball for an extended stretch. If Jenkins can come close to mimicking Harper's production throughout his career, he will become a surefire Hall-of-Famer and debatably the best outfielder in Twins history.

What is a successful career for Jenkins? Which player on this list do you think Jenkins will end up most like? Could he end up as good as Harper? Join the discussion and comment below.

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[Doctor Gast]

Too early!

[Karbo]

It's sad to see how many players had careers cut short due to injury. Hope Jenkins can avoid any serious, career threatening injuries.

[Trov]

First, a successful career for him will be making MLB as a regular and earning a contract beyond arb years is really a general bench mark of a successful career for most players.  Really, for most I would say just having a full season should be considered successful for any player as very few percentage of players even get that.  

Of course, our hopes are much higher than that based on the hype on him.  Many have said he could have been number 1 in many other drafts, which is nice for a team that took him 5th.  Would his hype had been higher if he was number 1 overall? What my hopes for the kid is he makes MLB in 2026, he is a regular in the OF, makes all-star games and hits in middle of order around Lewis for several years and helps leads us to plenty of post season appearances.  Of course his early results in minors are giving us huge expectations for him.  They are very SSS but he did not disappoint in his few games so far.   

[Nine of twelve]

I would be more interested to see how each of the above players performed in his first full professional season at the age of 19 (when applicable). I think that would give us a more immediate idea of what to hope for or expect out of Jenkins going forward.

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Too early!

You are absolutely correct.  I read this at 6:15AM this morning and couldn't wrap my mind around it.  But now that it's almost 9:30AM (EST), I think I can comment.

First, thank you, Cody, for putting this together.  It provides a good insight into the unpredictability of the MLB Amateur Draft.  Can Jenkins approach Harper-like results?  The potential is there and only ten years of watching him perform will answer that question.  My guess is that Jenkins will be some combination of Benintendi, Tucker, and Harper.  But above all, I just hope he avoids incurring a catastrophic injury that might derail his career (think Byron Buxton v2.0).  I think the Twins are about due for something positive to happen to them.

[chpettit19]

This was a fun exercise, thanks for putting it together. Fun to look back over the years at some names I hadn't thought about in a while. Markakis was so underrated.

My hope for Jenkins is that he hits the Markakis or better section of the options listed here. I don't think we should put too much weight into early results beyond whether or not they look completely overwhelmed. Like Cavaco and his .470 OPS in his first 25 games after being drafted. I think early results that are horrid are more telling than early results that are great when it comes to high school kids first getting a taste. But Jenkins certainly gave us early results to dream on.

My dream is that he does the Jackson Holliday thing in 2024 and puts himself on the doorstep for an early 2025 debut. I think him getting a taste of AA in 2024 keeps him squarely on the Markakis or better trend, though. The Meadows through Gordon section of the options here would still be "successful" outcomes from a talent standpoint, but I'm pretty sure we'd all still feel rather disappointed. Such is the nature of more access to prospects and the expectations that creates. 

The Meyer through Dahl section would obviously be super disappointing. Dahl may actually be the most disappointing because he showed true talent and then it all just fell apart. Kelenic is a tough comp because he's still pretty early in his career, and there's a decent enough chance Atlanta makes a tweak, or he just changes his mindset and isn't trying to be "the man" in a lineup full of stars, and he puts it all together. 

We'll have a much better idea of where he's currently pointing on this list of options after he gets a full year in and starts moving up the ranks. But that swing is so pretty, and he dominated so quickly, that it's pretty fun to dream on. Why can't the Twins have one of these kids who debut at 20 and take the league by storm? And why can't it be Jenkins? It's the offseason so I think we can all enjoy a little hope and picture what things could be like if they all go right for this kid.

[jmlease1]

I dunno what a successful career is for Jenkins, but he's off to a great start and clearly doesn't look like a lemon. But it's so hard to predict where he'll land and there are so many potential pitfalls. But he's doing everything right so far and I can't wait to see what his first full year as a pro looks like.

[Whitey333]

Great article.  We'll researched and we'll written.  My only point would be that perhaps it's way too early to predict.  But we'll thought out and done!!  I wish him the best.

[Nashvilletwin]

Harper Shmarper.  Roy Hobbs is what we’re talking about here.

Just keep him away from psycho ladies on trains….Oh, and slippery ice as well (Lewis).

Seriously, give the kid two years to develop and, if all goes well, pencil him in for a decade as the Twins’ CFer.  A career somewhere between Kirby and Torii would be outstanding, but closer to, or even above, Kirby is possible.

Hopefully he will be entertaining me and my grandchildren in a Twins uniform for some time.

[Guest]

Well done, thank you.

[ashbury]

So among lefty-hitting, early-draft outfield picks, there are good players, and bad players, and others in between, and with luck Jenkins could be one of those types.  All righty then!

[Blyleven2011]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Too early!

Way to early , let's wait a year and have this  discussion after a full Healthy year  ...

[wabene]

52 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Harper Shmarper.  Roy Hobbs is what we’re talking about here.

Just keep him away from psycho ladies on trains….Oh, and slippery ice as well (Lewis).

Seriously, give the kid two years to develop and, if all goes well, pencil him in for a decade as the Twins’ CFer.  A career somewhere between Kirby and Torii would be outstanding, but closer to, or even above, Kirby is possible.

Hopefully he will be entertaining me and my grandchildren in a Twins uniform for some time.

Maybe it would be better to have him ride the Twins winter caravan and learn how to navigate this rumored substance. 

[saviking]

How about a lefthanded Tori Hunter..

[TopGunn#22]

This was a fun read.  I think we all HOPE he can be a Kyle Tucker/Bryce Harper type of player.  Hitting in the heart of the order for the Twins with Royce Lewis for a decade of playoff appearances and a couple of World Series wins.  It's too early to count on anything, but I'm looking forward to reading about his progress on Twins Daily all year long.

I hope he can make it to AA this season. start 2025 at AA and quickly move to St. Paul before finally getting a shot either before of after the All Star Game in 2025.  My dream scenario is that he's up sometime in 2025 and does very well.  Will he still be eligible for ROY in 2026 or does he just outright WIN IT in 2025.  That's MY dream.  :)  

[RpR]

5 hours ago, Karbo said:

It's sad to see how many players had careers cut short due to injury. Hope Jenkins can avoid any serious, career threatening injuries.

It would be fantastic if he could be the next Jimmie Hall or Tony Oliva but not get injured.

[roger]

Will say what I said when they drafted him.  Why can't he be our modern day version of Mickey Mantle?  If memory serves, he was an above average outfielder with speed, power, defense and he hit for average.

[DocBauer]

I know he wasn't listed as he wasn't a high draft selection...thus not fitting the OP... but as to what Jenkins "could be", how about Aaron Judge?

[RpR]

Let's shoot for the moon -- the next Ted Williams.

[Nine of twelve]

3 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I know he wasn't listed as he wasn't a high draft selection...thus not fitting the OP... but as to what Jenkins "could be", how about Aaron Judge?

The OP also was looking only at left-handed batters.

[Parfigliano]

For a LH centerfielder I wont accept anything less then Ty Cobb.  Maybe Tris Speaker.

[Fatbat]

On 12/29/2023 at 7:17 AM, Doctor Gast said:

Too early!

Not too early, I will predict HOF because Jenkins will be in the show very quickly and stay intil he is 40. He will do things no one else has done. There I said it. 

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I'd love to see anywhere between the 80-100th percentile.  I hope they don't trade him as it will be fun to watch his development up through the system.

Hopefully a quick trip through minor leagues then MLB star as a Twin.