Pirates fan site proposed Twins trade

[old nurse]

Thought that some folks could use a laugh. Look at what fangraphs had to say about the prospect, then look at the proposal. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/quinn-priester/25977/stats?position=P  pre 2021 he was rated in the 50 or  52 for all prospects and went down from there. 

https://rumbunter.com/posts/pittsburgh-pirates-three-bold-trade-proposals-to-address-pitching-infield-needs/4 

 

[glunn]

That's hilarious. Why are you reading enemy fan sites?

[old nurse]

9 hours ago, glunn said:

That's hilarious. Why are you reading enemy fan sites?

I looked at the list of available fee agent pitchers and saw James Kapprellian. I looked to see what went wrong stat wise with his 2023 season. There was a link to see who the Bucs should pick up as minor league free agents.  Sounded like a good idea. Nope. There was a link to the story on who they should trade for from the Twins. If their list of minor league free agents was a collection of mediocrity, curiosity took over. So many trade suggestions here look absolutely reasonable by comparison. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

I mean, I do this.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

12 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I mean, I do this.

You do… I also believe you put up more realistic trade proposals than Cole Sands for Whit Merrifield and George Springer

[jorgenswest]

Priester would move in front of Festa, Woods-Richardson and maybe Varland in starting pitching depth list. Adding him might mean they can add Varland the the major league pen. 

They still need to add a veteran to the rotation.

[MGX]

This is funny. Priester was hammered at the MLB level last year throughout the season. Not sure where that writer saw supposed improvement - July - 9.19 ERA, August - 9.00 ERA & Sept/Oct - 5.91 ERA. He's never had any sort of dominance in the minors at any level to make anyone think those numbers are a fluke. He's young so he still has time to improve, but we have those types of pitchers in our system already. Trading Polanco or Kepler for another guy who might improve isn't at all interesting to me.

Trading Polanco for this guy would be a mistake, trading Kepler for him is ridiculous & and both is laughable.

[ashbury]

Priester put up a 4.00 ERA as a 22-year old in AAA, relative to a league ERA of 5.18.  AAA was tough for pitchers in 2023. 

He then got his brains beaten in at the major league level, got sent back down for a while, did marginally better (still not good) upon recall   For reference, Jose Berrios was getting his brains beaten in, at age 22 in the majors, too.

He was #4 on the mlb.com Pirates' prospect list last year, after being a first-round pick in 2019, and apparently has exceeded whatever criterion they use for being a prospect at mlb.com now.  For whatever tiny bit it's worth, the eldritch scouting brew OOTP uses has him as an average starting pitching prospect with a potentially very good curve ball, and a hint of frontline potential.

He might not be ready to be a rotation mainstay yet, which is our trading focus for now, but could be on the verge come 2025.  The writer of the linked article acknowleges that additional pieces would need to go to the Twins; IOW it's a starting point for discussion, with possibly a piece being subtracted or substituted by the Twins instead.

If I were FalVine I would be telling my scouts and analytics groups to get me a firm read on this pitcher pronto, if the Pirates approached them with such a proposal.  Ditto asking Pete Maki and the AAA pitching coaches what they see to work with.  I'd also be surprised if the Pirates are looking to move him, so would be trying to figure out if there's a red flag.

I don't embrace this proposal, quite, but I don't dismiss it out of hand either.  Young controllable starting pitching is hard to acquire, and age-22 stats don't place any kind of limits on what a player may go on to achieve.

[nicksaviking]

16 hours ago, glunn said:

That's hilarious. Why are you reading enemy fan sites?

I mean, can the Pirates be considered anyone's enemy? To me they seem more like someone's annoying little brother.

[Major League Ready]

20 hours ago, ashbury said:

Priester put up a 4.00 ERA as a 22-year old in AAA, relative to a league ERA of 5.18.  AAA was tough for pitchers in 2023. 

He then got his brains beaten in at the major league level, got sent back down for a while, did marginally better (still not good) upon recall   For reference, Jose Berrios was getting his brains beaten in, at age 22 in the majors, too.

He was #4 on the mlb.com Pirates' prospect list last year, after being a first-round pick in 2019, and apparently has exceeded whatever criterion they use for being a prospect at mlb.com now.  For whatever tiny bit it's worth, the eldritch scouting brew OOTP uses has him as an average starting pitching prospect with a potentially very good curve ball, and a hint of frontline potential.

He might not be ready to be a rotation mainstay yet, which is our trading focus for now, but could be on the verge come 2025.  The writer of the linked article acknowleges that additional pieces would need to go to the Twins; IOW it's a starting point for discussion, with possibly a piece being subtracted or substituted by the Twins instead.

If I were FalVine I would be telling my scouts and analytics groups to get me a firm read on this pitcher pronto, if the Pirates approached them with such a proposal.  Ditto asking Pete Maki and the AAA pitching coaches what they see to work with.  I'd also be surprised if the Pirates are looking to move him, so would be trying to figure out if there's a red flag.

I don't embrace this proposal, quite, but I don't dismiss it out of hand either.  Young controllable starting pitching is hard to acquire, and age-22 stats don't place any kind of limits on what a player may go on to achieve.

Good call!  If you look back at any 90+ win team from markets in the bottom two-thirds of revenue, this type of trade is far more prevalent than trading for well-established players and it's not remotely close.  Strategies that favor the immediate are far more preferrable to most fans but history will reveal (if one bothers to look) the long-term strategies applied by the Ray's, Guardians, and Athletics are more effective in building winning teams. Some of those teams produced as much WAR from players acquired as prospects as players they drafted.

The 22 trade deadline is a good example.  We would be in a far superior position if we had Steer, CES, and Gibson-Long.  Cincinatti is moving Steer to LF.  He would provide depth and L/R balance.  Wallner would move to right and Larnach is depth.  CES could provide a very big tick or he would be very attractive as part of the offering for a top of the rotation arm.   IDK how good SGL will be but his debut went well and we could use the SP depth.  We invested these assets and more in a short-term strategy for a team that never had a chance.  This is obviously not a popular view but it's hard to argue given the results in 22 and the present state of the prospects involved.   

[Brock Beauchamp]

18 hours ago, ashbury said:

Priester put up a 4.00 ERA as a 22-year old in AAA, relative to a league ERA of 5.18.  AAA was tough for pitchers in 2023. 

He then got his brains beaten in at the major league level, got sent back down for a while, did marginally better (still not good) upon recall   For reference, Jose Berrios was getting his brains beaten in, at age 22 in the majors, too.

He was #4 on the mlb.com Pirates' prospect list last year, after being a first-round pick in 2019, and apparently has exceeded whatever criterion they use for being a prospect at mlb.com now.  For whatever tiny bit it's worth, the eldritch scouting brew OOTP uses has him as an average starting pitching prospect with a potentially very good curve ball, and a hint of frontline potential.

He might not be ready to be a rotation mainstay yet, which is our trading focus for now, but could be on the verge come 2025.  The writer of the linked article acknowleges that additional pieces would need to go to the Twins; IOW it's a starting point for discussion, with possibly a piece being subtracted or substituted by the Twins instead.

If I were FalVine I would be telling my scouts and analytics groups to get me a firm read on this pitcher pronto, if the Pirates approached them with such a proposal.  Ditto asking Pete Maki and the AAA pitching coaches what they see to work with.  I'd also be surprised if the Pirates are looking to move him, so would be trying to figure out if there's a red flag.

I don't embrace this proposal, quite, but I don't dismiss it out of hand either.  Young controllable starting pitching is hard to acquire, and age-22 stats don't place any kind of limits on what a player may go on to achieve.

All of this. If the Twins are confident they can improve Priester, I make this move in a heartbeat. As it stands right now staring at a stat line, hard pass.

Which is why specific trade proposals are always fraught with uncertainty. Priester was very highly regarded just 12 months ago. He was a punching bag in 2023. How the Twins view him is everything in this situation and none of us staring at a FanGraphs page has a real idea how to value this trade.

[FlyingFinn]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

We would be in a far superior position if we had Steer, CES, and Gibson-Long.  Cincinatti is moving Steer to LF.  He would provide depth and L/R balance. 

There's also the advantage of hindsight. Nobody was saying we should have put Gibson-Long on the 40 man at the time. And the 40 man roster crunch was one of the big reasons we traded Steer and CES. If people didn't like Miranda's defense, CES has always been known for much worse defense. Then you have Buxton at DH and where do you play CES.

[Major League Ready]

33 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

There's also the advantage of hindsight. Nobody was saying we should have put Gibson-Long on the 40 man at the time. And the 40 man roster crunch was one of the big reasons we traded Steer and CES. If people didn't like Miranda's defense, CES has always been known for much worse defense. Then you have Buxton at DH and where do you play CES.

There were a few of us that took the position that the 22 team was not worthy of the level of investment they made so it's not hind sight to take this position now.  It was an unpopular position.  Most took an adamant stance that "we were in 1st place".  Some of us said so what ... we are in 1st because of a very weak division not because we had a team that could contend.  If you look at the teams in the bottom two-thirds of revenue that have been successful, they have done so by taking advantage of the premium paid for immediate gain.  Tampa, Oakland, and Cleveland have managed assets in this manner for two decades.  More recently, Cincinatti and Baltimore have played the long game and those teams are in a great position today.  

One of the writers here (I don't remember who) did a piece on SGL.  There were people that believed in him and we don't even know that it would have been necessary to put him on the 40 man at the time.  Steer and CES were definitely players that would have been put on the 40 man at the end of 2022.

[Schmoeman5]

23 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I mean, can the Pirates be considered anyone's enemy? To me they seem more like someone's annoying little brother.

Similar to the juggernaut Twins 

[dxpavelka]

I suppose we could throw in Babe Ruth and Harmon Killebrew as well.

[tony&rodney]

Quinn Priester is a strong prospect still. Despite having a rough introduction to MLB, the young gun could easily fashion a fine career. His value seems to have gone down from a year ago, but I believe the Pirates would ask for quite a bit more than expected because of his previous ranking as a prospect. They might agree to Polanco plus some cash for Priester. 

A bigger issue would be how Priester fits into the Twins 2024 season. He doesn't really jump into line behind Lopez or even Ryan or Ober. The Twins should be trying to win in 2024 and Polanco gives them a better chance to do so than Priester in 2024. The Twins are little light on outfielders to offer Kepler plus money for Priester for about the same reason. I expect Quinn Priester to break out some time this coming year or in 2025. The Twins are not looking ahead though.

[Major League Ready]

8 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Quinn Priester is a strong prospect still. Despite having a rough introduction to MLB, the young gun could easily fashion a fine career. His value seems to have gone down from a year ago, but I believe the Pirates would ask for quite a bit more than expected because of his previous ranking as a prospect. They might agree to Polanco plus some cash for Priester. 

A bigger issue would be how Priester fits into the Twins 2024 season. He doesn't really jump into line behind Lopez or even Ryan or Ober. The Twins should be trying to win in 2024 and Polanco gives them a better chance to do so than Priester in 2024. The Twins are little light on outfielders to offer Kepler plus money for Priester for about the same reason. I expect Quinn Priester to break out some time this coming year or in 2025. The Twins are not looking ahead though.

Why wouldn't the Twins be looking ahead?  This is the type of trade that can impact a team for several years.  Let's hope the Twins FO is short-term focused that they would overlook a player that could be a big contributor for several years because their only focused on players with an immediate impact.  

[Otaknam]

This would be a salary dump, freeing up salary to acquire a more established starter IMO. And it would have to include another high end Pirates prospect. Trading KEPLER AND POLANCO for Priester strikes me as acquiring a Cole Sands type pitcher for two established veterans. Priester might improve or he might have reached his zenith as a pitcher. Certainly a 93-95 mph fastball isn’t impressive, so his secondary pitches would have to be above average for him to be successful. I think the Twins can do better than this. 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Why wouldn't the Twins be looking ahead? 

We will know what the plans are if a trade of .... say ...... Polanco plus money and maybe a lower level unranked prospect is sent to Pittsburgh for Priester. That would be a potentially good outcome for both teams, although the Pirates have said they are not trading pitchers. 

[gunnarthor]

It's an ok proposal. He'd been a top 100 prospect, he can be shuttled between AAA/MLB, which is what we need, until he locks up a rotation spot. He looks like he can absorb innings and has upside. That's not a bad get and it opens up playing time for younger players around the diamond. I don't think Kepler and Polanco will get us that much more.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, Otaknam said:

This would be a salary dump, freeing up salary to acquire a more established starter IMO. And it would have to include another high end Pirates prospect. Trading KEPLER AND POLANCO for Priester strikes me as acquiring a Cole Sands type pitcher for two established veterans. Priester might improve or he might have reached his zenith as a pitcher. Certainly a 93-95 mph fastball isn’t impressive, so his secondary pitches would have to be above average for him to be successful. I think the Twins can do better than this. 

Except Priester is an actual prospect, and threw about 160 combined innings last year. He would be our 5th starter out of the game I'd have to imagine, above Varland.

I'd still want someone else, but it's not the worst idea here at all.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Otaknam said:

This would be a salary dump, freeing up salary to acquire a more established starter IMO. And it would have to include another high end Pirates prospect. Trading KEPLER AND POLANCO for Priester strikes me as acquiring a Cole Sands type pitcher for two established veterans. Priester might improve or he might have reached his zenith as a pitcher. Certainly a 93-95 mph fastball isn’t impressive, so his secondary pitches would have to be above average for him to be successful. I think the Twins can do better than this. 

Fangraphs shows a 50 FV and He has a 70 rating on his curveball. Sands has a 35+ FV and he is a RP vs a starter so I don't see Sands as a comp.

[tony&rodney]

To be clear, there are a couple of points to consider.

The Twins can always use a guy like Polanco. Jorge could easily rebound and be among the top three Twins players again in 2024. Polanco can also help the Pirates. He remains an excellent MLB player.

The Pirates need pitching and the Twins are not going to trade one of their top 5-7 starting pitchers along with Polanco to Pittsburgh. Priester could emerge this season as a strong guy in the rotation for the Pirates, so it really doesn't make sense for them to trade a young pitcher.

The Twins have players to cover the loss of Polanco to a reasonable extent. Acquiring Priester for Polanco plus a low level player and cash (?/$5M) makes a ton of sense for the Twins because Priester is the type of player who could move up later and help in 2024 as a strong pitcher in line behind Varland.

I don't expect this trade to come to fruition, although it is an interesting exercise.

[Mike Sixel]

I mean, that's more than I thought they could get for Polanco.....a former top pitching prospect who has some really good stuff? And he's only a former prospect due to not being a prospect anymore? He's your top AAA pitcher, most likely, to start the year. If the Twins think they can unlock something, you do this trade every day.

[nicksaviking]

I'd hold onto Kepler and Polanco until I'm sure they can't be used to offset the prospect cost to get a more established top arm.

Should that prove to be impossible, I guess this would look similar to the Nelson Cruz for Joe Ryan trade. This is the Pirates though, there's next to no chance they're taking on 20M for both Kepler and Polanco. They'd pay one at most, and probably beg the Twins to pay half the salary.

[Major League Ready]

38 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I'd hold onto Kepler and Polanco until I'm sure they can't be used to offset the prospect cost to get a more established top arm.

Should that prove to be impossible, I guess this would look similar to the Nelson Cruz for Joe Ryan trade. This is the Pirates though, there's next to no chance they're taking on 20M for both Kepler and Polanco. They'd pay one at most, and probably beg the Twins to pay half the salary.

Your skepticism is warranted given this is the Pirates we are talking about.  However, the Pirates payroll projection is only $50M.  With Kepler being a one-year deal and Polanco having a team option in 2025, this is not a big spend, even for the Pirates.   

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I'd hold onto Kepler and Polanco until I'm sure they can't be used to offset the prospect cost to get a more established top arm.

Should that prove to be impossible, I guess this would look similar to the Nelson Cruz for Joe Ryan trade. This is the Pirates though, there's next to no chance they're taking on 20M for both Kepler and Polanco. They'd pay one at most, and probably beg the Twins to pay half the salary.

100% fair....I have no idea who they are targeting, or how much they want to cut payroll, or, really, anything. We'll know in about 3-4 weeks, I'd guess.