The Minnesota Twins and the Death of the Innings Eater

[Cody Christie]

Traditionally, teams have valued back-end starters who can consistently eat innings. As the league changes the way it deploys pitching staffs, though, that breed is dying. How has this trend impacted the Twins?

Image courtesy of Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

So far this winter, Minnesota fans have watched the St. Louis Cardinals collect former Twins starters at an incredible rate. Sonny Gray, last year’s runner-up for the AL Cy Young, is the one who garnered the most attention, but let’s look at the team’s other two additions. Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn signed one-year deals for a combined $24 million, to slot into the back of St. Louis’s rotation. The Cardinals lacked starting pitching depth last season, and it has been the biggest part of their offseason blueprint. However, they might be collecting an endangered species of pitcher. 

Last week, Chad Jennings of The Athletic wrote about the innings eater, defining them as “a back-end starting pitcher who rarely dominates but regularly pitches deep into games.” He described how starters are encouraged to maximize their effort, which minimizes how often they can go through a lineup. He further defined an innings eater as a pitcher who throws at least 180 innings with an ERA+ of 100 or worse. Gibson and Lynn met these criteria last season, and many projections will point to them compiling similar numbers next season. 

Twins manager Rocco Baldelli has a reputation for using a quick hook with his starting pitchers, but that wasn’t the case in 2023. Minnesota starters finished with the fourth-most innings pitched (895) and were only 6 2/3 innings from the top spot. Some of Baldelli’s reputation is tied to the type of starting pitchers who have been on his roster in recent seasons. The Twins front office hasn’t valued innings eaters highly, because they understand that starters typically perform worse when they face a lineup for a third time.

Let’s examine recent Twins teams to see which players were closest to fitting the innings eater criteria outlined above.

Last season, Joe Ryan was the closest thing to an innings-eating pitcher for the Twins. In 2023, he threw 161 2/3 innings with a 95 ERA+, but that doesn’t tell the whole story of his season. He was a borderline All-Star in the first half, with a 3.70 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and 10.4 K/9 IP. His second-half numbers suffered (6.09 ERA, 1.48 WHIP), as Ryan attempted to pitch through a groin injury. Minnesota has higher hopes for him in 2024, and there’s no reason to put him into the innings eater category.

The 2022 Twins didn’t have a pitcher throw more than 147 innings. Dylan Bundy pitched the second-most innings on the team (140) behind Ryan, and had an 80 ERA+. Minnesota had to continue using him, because there weren’t any other options in the season’s second half. Bundy didn’t have any major-league offers last winter and signed a minor-league deal with the Mets in March. He’d only make six appearances for their Triple-A affiliate, and his professional career is probably over.

Minnesota’s pitching staff was a mess during the 2021 season, with the front office signing J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker to fill what they hoped would be innings-eater roles. Instead, Shoemaker posted a 65 ERA+ in 60 1/3 innings, before being demoted to Triple-A. Happ pitched nearly 100 innings with a 63 ERA+ and was moved to St. Louis at the trade deadline. Only three Twins pitchers tossed over 100 innings (Jose Berríos, Michael Pineda, and Kenta Maeda), and none fit into the innings eater category.

In 2020, the shortened season made it hard to evaluate which pitchers were used as innings eaters. The Twins had a pair of pitchers close to meeting the innings eater criteria during the 2019 season. Martín Pérez posted an 89 ERA+ in 165 1/3 innings, while the aforementioned Gibson threw 160 innings with a 94 ERA+ in his final season with the Twins. 

Innings eaters haven’t been a priority for this front office. They value pitchers making it through the early innings and turning the game over to the bullpen for the middle frames. Since Derek Falvey took over the front office (2017), there have only been six times when a starting pitcher threw more than 180 innings in one season, and none had an ERA+ below 100. (Obviously, though, the truncation of 2020 and the hangover effect on pitcher workloads league-wide in 2021 contributed to that.)

The innings eater has been dead in Minnesota for quite some time. Will teams continue to value pitchers who soak up innings without being above-average? Can the Twins add someone to fit this role for 2024? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

I think this is a product of baseball now, generally. It's difficult to be a starting pitcher AND show that your coach can depend on you to go 3 times through the order IF you are not solid that 3rd time through. IF a starter is capable of handling a lineup a 3rd time through, I'd argue that starter is not "back-end" of a rotation. 

I mean, how good is it to have a starter pitching the 7th inning when they typically get clobbered a 3rd time through? Sonny Gray comes to mind for me last year; If he didn't have a blow-up inning in the 4th (which FELT typical at times, that his 4th inning was the hardest one for him IF he were to have a bad inning, but I don't have the numbers in front of me) then it felt like he would get into the 6th that game. But Ryan (pre-injury at the end of June) and Pablo (all year) were the two guys who I had trust in handling a lineup a 3rd time through. My hope is that Ober and Paddack and whoever else they acquire also can get to that point, along with Ryan getting back to his pre-injury self.

But yeah, if you have a strong/lights out bullpen (which I'd argue the Twins have set themselves up to have in 2024) I'd rather have a really good reliever face a lineup if the starting pitcher that day isn't a playoff level starter, which I also think is the line of, not being trusted a 3rd time through.

 

[sweetmusicviola16]

Bring back Ricky Nolasco and Kevin Correia. LOL

[nicksaviking]

Good. Go into every game with the intent to win, not the intent to hopefully hang in there.

I know when you have a questionable rotation, the urge is to get 'depth' to hopefully have pitchers you can just run out there every fifth day, or in an emergency, but if you're running out guys who have a blow 90 ERA+, your odds of winning are low anyway.

[ashbury]

Innings eaters are a thread the needle type of pitcher.  You have to get batters out, otherwise you won't consume many innings.  If you get a lot of batters out while keeping runners off the bases, you're a mid-rotation mainstay.  If runners are getting on base, you're not getting them out. Because pitching success varies from year to year for many guys, I don't find the definition very useful for thinking about roster construction.  Like the concept of a fifth starter, a guy's an innings eater until he suddenly isn't - he improves into someone you want to feed innings to, or he gets worse and you want to minimize his innings, possibly all the way to zero.

[tony&rodney]

Last season the Twins starting pitchers were among the leaders in innings pitched as a team because they had the guys to successfully pitch deeper into games. In other years, some of the pitchers often struggled in the 3rd inning. If Baldelli has guys pitching effectively he will let them keep going. It is the weakness of pitchers that results in shorter outings. One example - Greg Maddux could face a lineup four times and the batters would never see the same pitches. That and the friendly strike zone.

[DJL44]

The escalating relief arms race has made a big difference. 30 years ago a team wouldn't have multiple relievers throwing 95-100 MPH fastballs and wipeout sliders. Now that's the expectation. If you have 6 relievers who can do that you're going to use them. That means fewer innings for the starting pitchers.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I think this is a product of baseball now, generally. It's difficult to be a starting pitcher AND show that your coach can depend on you to go 3 times through the order IF you are not solid that 3rd time through. IF a starter is capable of handling a lineup a 3rd time through, I'd argue that starter is not "back-end" of a rotation.

There really isn't an stats that show pitchers aren't allowed to pitch to a lineup a third time.

Ober had two starts where he wasn't allowed to pitch to any player a third time. Ryan had only two as well. Maeda had 4. Kyle Gibson didn't have any.

If you look at the stats on average a starting pitcher faces between 22 and 24 batters. Which means they are facing the top 4 to 6 guys a third time. And rarely facing the 7-9 guys.

Ober average start he faced 22 guys, Ryan 23 guys, Gray 23.5, Lopez 25, Maeda 19, if you go though most teams you will find very similar results.

No taking anything away from what you are saying, I am just pointing out when people talk about being allowed to pitch the third time, doesn't really mean what they are saying.

It also isn't crazy to say the Twins starters pitch more innings than most was because the FO set the staff up pretty darn well last year, being 7 deep at the start, they didn't need to use starters or have all that many real short starts.

I personally believe when good pitchers are pitching well it really doesn't matter that much who they are facing, they mostly get in trouble when it is taking too many pitches to get the outs and you end up with 5 inning starts, not because of the third time, but they have hit or are close to hitting the top end of their pitch count. IMO

 

[Craig Arko]

This sounds like something out of Harry Potter.

[Mike Sixel]

What a bizarre thing.... Only 25 pitchers pitched 180 innings last year. Why would anyone want a bad pitcher to do that? Really silly.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

There really isn't an stats that show pitchers aren't allowed to pitch to a lineup a third time.

Ober had two starts where he wasn't allowed to pitch to any player a third time. Ryan had only two as well. Maeda had 4. Kyle Gibson didn't have any.

If you look at the stats on average a starting pitcher faces between 22 and 24 batters. Which means they are facing the top 4 to 6 guys a third time. And rarely facing the 7-9 guys.

Ober average start he faced 22 guys, Ryan 23 guys, Gray 23.5, Lopez 25, Maeda 19, if you go though most teams you will find very similar results.

No taking anything away from what you are saying, I am just pointing out when people talk about being allowed to pitch the third time, doesn't really mean what they are saying.

It also isn't crazy to say the Twins starters pitch more innings than most was because the FO set the staff up pretty darn well last year, being 7 deep at the start, they didn't need to use starters or have all that many real short starts.

I personally believe when good pitchers are pitching well it really doesn't matter that much who they are facing, they mostly get in trouble when it is taking too many pitches to get the outs and you end up with 5 inning starts, not because of the third time, but they have hit or are close to hitting the top end of their pitch count. IMO

 

This is correct. 

[old nurse]

Nobody should really want an inning eater on their staff. If nothing else, the 5 starter are the pitchers you are developing. Signing an innings eater means you don’t have anything in the pipeline.  Lynn and Gibson have had success more than just being inning eaters in the past. The Cardinals must think they can tweak them to get back to mid rotation starter levels. They have always been about winning.  Inning eaters are for teams like that don’t have the starts and know they are not going to contend. I would think the Royals would fit that category

[Dantes929]

Kind of highlights my position that Bert Blyleven would never be a HOFer today because of pitch and innings limits.   In the 6 seasons from age 20 to 25 he AVERAGED over 290 innings a year.   In that period he was sub 3.00 ERA and still only made one all star team and only one Cy Young top 10 finish.   Crazy how the game has changed.   Despite one season with 20 innings he still AVERAGED over 225 innings a year.    It has been 18 years since even a single twins pitcher in a single year has pitched 225 innings.   

[PatPfund]

I'd say the innings-eaters are still there, but you won't find them with an old baseball definition. Very few pitchers of any kind throw 180 innings any more, but you can certainly find players on the Twins whose main job was to eat innings so better pitchers didn't have to. That essentially was the whole reason for the Keuchel starts, eat 5 innings in a game, and give Ober some down time. You could say the same for the backend of the bullpen; rarely were you counting on Sands/Winder/Balazovic etc to win games; you wanted professionals to eat some innings and either let the offense climb back in, or not waste better talent mopping up big victories.

So the role is still there, but like much else, the definition needs revision.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

What a bizarre thing.... Only 25 pitchers pitched 180 innings last year. Why would anyone want a bad pitcher to do that? Really silly.

Honest question, which part of my post did you disagree with?

Down to the part where I used IMO are real facts.

All the good pitchers when pitching well and effectively are usually allowed to pitch a third and maybe into the 4th time though. Lopez in 11 of his starts faced 27 or more batters, Gray 4 times, Blake Snell did it once, but almost every start had 90 plus pitches. Logan Webb did it like 14 times, yet generally ended up around the 90 - 100 pitch count. These stats are easy to find, pull up a pitcher's game log check batters faced and pitches and generally the story of the game is told right.

I am pretty confident the pitchers that are good and keep their pitch count down, pitch more innings and face more batters. (and some are allowed to pitch a few more pitches)

[strumdatjag]

Years ago, when the Twins touted acquiring an “innings eater”, that usually meant that the pitcher was mediocre or worse but durable enough to throw a large number of innings.    2004 had Terry Mulholland (late in his career) arriving as an “Innings Eater”.  The results were not that good.   Sorry to you Terry Mulholland fans. 

[Nine of twelve]

Baseball philosophy changes with time as more is learned and as more thought is applied. As DJL44 said, relief pitching has improved markedly over the last 10-20 years. This is partly due to better conditioning and better player development but it's also a change in philosophy. With larger bullpens relievers are increasingly being coached to give maximum effort knowing they will typically pitch only one inning (or occasionally up to two if well-rested). A rested reliever will usually out-perform a starter who has pitched to 20 or so batters. Obviously a manager has to guard against overtaxing the bullpen but the idea is to use the player who is most likely to succeed. So the only starters who eat innings will be those who pitch efficiently and effectively. And IYAM that's how it should be.

[RaoulDuke]

Gone are the Blackburns/ Silvas/ Pavanos/ Bundys, now to pitch 6+ you need to have the stuff to do so.  Pens are just too good now, why trot out a 3/4/5 starter for a third time when you can throw a mix of guys throwing their plus stuff for a inning or more.

It also saves the top of the rotation arms from being overworked.  If someone is pitching a gem let em go deeper, but if Lopez/ Gray are turning in a mediocre start why waste the bullets.

This does make it much more important to have good relievers, they need to maintain arm talent to capitalize on this. 

Duran/ x /Stewart / x /Jax / Theilbar is good start but is far from a lock down pen and they will need multi innings guys.

[Mike Sixel]

5 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Honest question, which part of my post did you disagree with?

Down to the part where I used IMO are real facts.

All the good pitchers when pitching well and effectively are usually allowed to pitch a third and maybe into the 4th time though. Lopez in 11 of his starts faced 27 or more batters, Gray 4 times, Blake Snell did it once, but almost every start had 90 plus pitches. Logan Webb did it like 14 times, yet generally ended up around the 90 - 100 pitch count. These stats are easy to find, pull up a pitcher's game log check batters faced and pitches and generally the story of the game is told right.

I am pretty confident the pitchers that are good and keep their pitch count down, pitch more innings and face more batters. (and some are allowed to pitch a few more pitches)

I thought the definition was stupid. Not your post. 

[Doctor Wu]

5 hours ago, RaoulDuke said:

Gone are the Blackburns/ Silvas/ Pavanos/ Bundys, now to pitch 6+ you need to have the stuff to do so.  Pens are just too good now, why trot out a 3/4/5 starter for a third time when you can throw a mix of guys throwing their plus stuff for a inning or more.

It also saves the top of the rotation arms from being overworked.  If someone is pitching a gem let em go deeper, but if Lopez/ Gray are turning in a mediocre start why waste the bullets.

This does make it much more important to have good relievers, they need to maintain arm talent to capitalize on this. 

Duran/ x /Stewart / x /Jax / Theilbar is good start but is far from a lock down pen and they will need multi innings guys.

Carl Pavano! That's the name I was trying to remember when the topic of "innings eater" came up. He hung around longer than most of us would have thought, I'll give him that. 

[mikelink45]

As so often happens the article triggered another thought in my mind.  If we are only going to use 5 inning SP, why not go back to a 4 man rotation?  We are not over using them.  No Warren Spahn - Marichal marathons.  So give them a chance to pitch more often and don't use an inning eater (or rather mediocre arm).

[4twinsJA]

Are managers watching innings pitched or pitches thrown? Seems Twins starters rarely go past 110 pitches and that usually occurs in 6th or 7th inning. If pitcher sitting at 100 pitches after 6 innings, most likely will not be pitching in 7th.

[JD-TWINS]

My suggestion, let’s use the Ohtani contract as food for thought to sign an inning’s eater, Jordan Montgomery.

As the market swells for FA pitching $$ expected with Yamamoto expected to get $300M sight unseen, I’d like Twins to act.

My fantasy signing for our innings eater, 157 innings, 178 innings, 184 innings over the past 3 seasons. 3.68 ERA over 7 years in the Show. Very nice playoff history!

5 years $150M. ‘24 - ‘25 $18M/year …..’26 - ‘27 $22M/year ……’28 $25M/year - $45M balance paid out $9M/year over next 5 years.

Our rotation, with health, is set through 2027!

Reasonable contract for both sides?

OR, we start with our current Payroll Total of approximately $114M & trade Polanco to get to  $104M. Then sign Montgomery for $26M/year Payroll total of $130M - a reduction of nearly 16% from last season.

As I type here at 9:35 EST, Al Lieter is suggesting Jordan Montgomery to the TWINS as a great move for the organization. Fingers crossed.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

As so often happens the article triggered another thought in my mind.  If we are only going to use 5 inning SP, why not go back to a 4 man rotation?  We are not over using them.  No Warren Spahn - Marichal marathons.  So give them a chance to pitch more often and don't use an inning eater (or rather mediocre arm).

I agree, but the starters are also increasing their effort. They're not pacing themselves for a 9 inning game, they're throwing harder knowing they only need to provide 5 innings. It's the difference between running a 1600m race with one runner versus a relay between someone running the 800 and 4 sprinters running a 200.

There is the desire to give starters a "throw" day in between starts to practice their craft. I still think that could be: Game, off, throw, off, Game and fit into a 4 man rotation.

[Otaknam]

Lots of HOF pitchers wouldn’t have made it under the current love affair with analytics.  Players want a manager who shows confidence in them and lets an effective start go another inning or two, rather than just managing by front office dictated computer algorithm. Whatever happened to a manager’s intuition? I remember a Joe Ryan start a couple of years ago where he was cruising along with a low pitch count through six innings and was removed because of Rocco’s dogmatic adherence to analytics. The team ended up losing the game. Analytics has a place but should not dictate every decision. 

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I agree, but the starters are also increasing their effort. They're not pacing themselves for a 9 inning game, they're throwing harder knowing they only need to provide 5 innings. It's the difference between running a 1600m race with one runner versus a relay between someone running the 800 and 4 sprinters running a 200.

There is the desire to give starters a "throw" day in between starts to practice their craft. I still think that could be: Game, off, throw, off, Game and fit into a 4 man rotation.

Great analogy with the Individual distance runner v. a relay Team in a 9 inning race - well put!!

Regardless of what we grew up watching, you & I, as well as 30 baseball organizations, like the chances of the Relay Team better!!

[Nine of twelve]

The manager gets criticized when a decision counter to the analytics backfires because the decision had a low likelihood of working. He gets criticized when a decision supported by the analytics backfires because he shouldn't be a slave to the numbers. He gets criticized when a decision counter to the analytics works because he got lucky when he shouldn't have taken the risk. He gets criticized when a decision supported by analytics works because he was only doing what the computer told him to do and he didn't think for himself. It's a lose-lose-lose-lose proposition.

Every manager in MLB history has used analytics to inform his decisions. No manager has ever gone with the analytics every time. I hope nobody believes otherwise.

[Nine of twelve]

2 hours ago, Otaknam said:

Players want a manager who shows confidence in them

If the player performs well the manager will show confidence. It's on the player, not the manager, to make that happen.

[DJL44]

13 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

Every manager in MLB history has used analytics to inform his decisions. No manager has ever gone with the analytics every time. I hope nobody believes otherwise.

I agree with this. Analytics can't tell you who has a hangover.

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

My suggestion, let’s use the Ohtani contract as food for thought to sign an inning’s eater, Jordan Montgomery.

As the market swells for FA pitching $$ expected with Yamamoto expected to get $300M sight unseen, I’d like Twins to act.

My fantasy signing for our innings eater, 157 innings, 178 innings, 184 innings over the past 3 seasons. 3.68 ERA over 7 years in the Show. Very nice playoff history!

5 years $150M. ‘24 - ‘25 $18M/year …..’26 - ‘27 $22M/year ……’28 $25M/year - $45M balance paid out $9M/year over next 5 years.

Our rotation, with health, is set through 2027!

Reasonable contract for both sides?

OR, we start with our current Payroll Total of approximately $114M & trade Polanco to get to  $104M. Then sign Montgomery for $26M/year Payroll total of $130M - a reduction of nearly 16% from last season.

As I type here at 9:35 EST, Al Lieter is suggesting Jordan Montgomery to the TWINS as a great move for the organization. Fingers crossed.

Except he's not an innings eater, not by the definition here....he's actually good at his job. It would be great to add a player of his caliber to this team! I'm not holding my breath.