Offseason Status Update: Arbitration, 40-Man Pruning, Vázquez Rumors

[PatPfund]

Great summary of the off-season so far, though I am not bummed out at all by the payroll situation.

A) the cut in payroll may not even be true (the Twins are a pretty taut ship to be "leaking" such a strategic information; I suspect layers of strategy in play). Also, now is not 2024 (when streaming/TV revenue is likely to be resolved into something more concrete to plan around.)

B) Even if payroll cuts happen, all it really means is we might be spared $10 million contracts on reclamation position player projects like Joey Gallo, and that we will likely lean heavily on internal solutions for many key spots (like C with Camargo, 2nd and 3rd with full seasons of Julien and Lewis, 1B with Kirilloff and Miranda, and maybe CF with Martin).

That should leave plenty of money to pursue a free agent arm (not from the top tier), and one through trade; probably one we haven't even thought of yet. It also leaves room to add complementary professionals late to supplement the roster or help replace any players traded away (players like MAT or Solano still available in Jan/Feb). Who knows, maybe they even figure out a way to get something from Byron! (Two weeks active, followed by two weeks on IL? All season long?)

The most exciting part of 2023 came when the Twins started leaning into their youth movement, and that part of the team is still (so far) intact for 2024, and along with it my excitement (so far) for next season.

[umterp23]

Overpaying $30MM to Vazquez in guaranteed money is  a very tough pill to swallow for a guy in his early 30's at the catcher position.  Some state superior defense for Vazquez is exaggerated in my opinion as stats below are across all MLB catchers.  

DWAR - Jeffers .9 (11th overall), Vazquez .4 (27th overall)

Caught Stealing - Jeffers .245 (25th)  Vazquez .239 (26th)

Stolen bases allowed - Jeffers 40 and Vazquez 54

Passed Balls - Jeffers 6 and Vazquez 3

Errors - Jeffers 3 and Vazquez 9

Fielding % - Jeffers .996 and Vazquez .990

Assists - Jeffers 31 and Vazquez 29

Quality tandem would say yes but $10MM for Vazquez is an overpay.  

[DJL44]

5 minutes ago, umterp23 said:

DWAR - Jeffers .9 (11th overall), Vazquez .4 (27th overall)

dWAR doesn't measure defense. RField measures defense.

[Doctor Gast]

3 hours ago, Jeff K said:

I think Vazquez as a back up catcher and his salary is a luxury that the Twins don't need with Camargo appearing to be ready to back up Jeffers.

Carmargo is not a fast riser, therefore it'll take awhile for him to adjust to the MLB. Although I like Carmargo's arm better than Jeffers still Carmargo's defense is not that great. Carmargo could be a good 3rd string MLB catcher but not backup.

With Jeffers arm & averageish defense, I've always considered Jeffers as backup catcher that can run into a hitting  streak here & there. Vazquez is a starting catcher that I expect his hitting will rebound this coming season.

As of right now we are not over the minimal estimated reduced budget. That means forget about FAs & focus on trades (that's where the opportunity is at). That way we aren't forced to cut neccessary salary. To obtain a SP to replace Gray we need to trade players who have topped out with pretty good trade value. Jeffers IMO is one of the best candidate. Then I'd look for an eliteish MLB catching prospect to significantly upgrade our catching future. 

I didn't agree w/ the salary they gave Vazquez but that's what FO deemed fair. But Vazquez mentoring an elite catching prospect for 2 yrs, he'd be worth every penny & then some.

[DJL44]

42 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Carmargo is not a fast riser, therefore it'll take awhile for him to adjust to the MLB. Although I like Carmargo's arm better than Jeffers still Carmargo's defense is not that great. Carmargo could be a good 3rd string MLB catcher but not backup.

With Jeffers arm & averageish defense, I've always considered Jeffers as backup catcher that can run into a hitting  streak here & there. Vazquez is a starting catcher that I expect his hitting will rebound this coming season.

I agree that it will take Camargo a while to adjust but looking at the state of players who get major league playing time behind the plate he's likely already past the bottom 10%.

Jeffers was one of the top 10 C in baseball in 2023. His defense is pretty average behind the plate in nearly every facet, and he has a plus bat for a catcher. The only catcher who projects as a clearly better hitter than Jeffers is Adley Rutschman. He's actually one of the keys to this team being competitive while on a restricted budget.

[ashbury]

The investment of $30M in Vazquez was pretty clearly intended to pay for starting-caliber play at catcher.  That didn't pan out.  If they had it to do over, maybe the FO  would choose someone/something different.

But that's now water under the bridge.  Every FO makes regrettable choices, and rarely do they get do-overs.

The remaining $20M investment still provides a floor.  Vazquez's 2023 performance, especially in the second half, was credible as a backup catcher.  If Vazquez disappears somehow during this off-season, that floor of backup performance still needs to be acquired, because the third catcher on the 40-man roster currently does not provide a floor at all - Camargo may prove himself but his downside remains "AAA only."

If it's true that Vazquez is so upset about his zero playing time in the post-season that he's demanded a trade, and if that resentment sticks, then Rocco made a nearly $20M mistake in October.  Disposing of Vazquez would cost assets at approximately that level, because you can't give him away at his salary; or clubhouse distractions if he stays and kvetches have a cost too.  But at the moment I'm not sure that this is more than someone's supposition, and it would be both regrettable and surprising if Rocco somehow failed to "read the room" on that particular lineup choice for 6 games.

[TopGunn#22]

Good opinions al around, even some I disagree with in part or mostly.  Here's one thing I know for sure:  The Twins will have a hard time defending their division championship if they don't find a way to acquire at least TWO "good" starting pitchers. 

The youth movement needs to continue, both in the field but also on the mound.  Young guys can more than adequately replace guys like Thielbar (Funderburk) Polanco (Julien--his defense is not horrible.  In fact, it was looking better toward the end of the year.  Polanco's strength was never defense, no matter where he played.  We're not needing to replace a Gold Glover).  Kepler (Wallner).  I'd even consider dealing Jax to get a bigger piece as I would replace him with Varland.

So here's a couple deals that could be done to start moving some pieces around the chessboard:

Kepler 8.8 BBTV and Bret Headrick 1.7  Total value:  10.5 to the Marlins for Edward Cabrera RHSP 8.5 26 y/o and Sixto Sanchez RHP 26 y/o.  Cabrera moves into the #4 or #5 spot in the rotation.  Sanchez is a Wild Card with a 99 mph fastball and a 96 mph sinker who works at St. Paul to begin the season and can be called up to start or relieve later in the season.

Polanco 8.8  Festa 8.7 Winder 4.9 and Miranda 5.1  Total Value: 27.3 to the Mariners for Bryce Miller 25.8 value 25 y/o.  (You could substitute Bryan Woo at 24.6 value 23 y/o if you want).  

Seattle WANTS Polanco.  Festa is a good get for the Marlins because they don't need to REPLACE Miller immediately, they already have 5-6 SP's in addition to Miller.  Winder gives them a swing arm for the major league team or at worst a AAA arm they can call up.  Miranda gives them a young hitter who could bounce back. 

The Twins now have a young arm in Miller (or Woo) who they can plug in at #2 behind Lopez.  Ryan, Ober, Paddock and Cabrera fill out the rotation.  Every arm but Lopez is still young and controllable for several years.  Paddock is affordable.  Varland moves to the pen and adds depth and a scary good power arm in shorter stints.  (The Twins would still have Sanchez from the Marlins and Matt Canterino, both good power arms with electric stuff if they can stay healthy.  

The Twins would have promising, controllable pitching for the near future.  They could sign Adam Duval and Nick Senzel for a couple RH bats that cover all 3 OF positions and Senzel can cover 2B & 3B.  I wouldn't trade Vasquez until next year.  You "MIGHT" even have enough money to make a play for June-hoo Lee to play CF. 

Cutting payroll is short-sighted and disappointing.  But it doesn't preclude the Twins from still having a good off season if the right moves are made.  It also doesn't allow for much margin for error.   

With 

[arby58]

6 hours ago, rv78 said:

Lopez is more of a #2 starter than an Ace. 

I doubt that would be the consensus of those 'in the know' in MLB. Baseball America polled managers, scouts, and executives, and Lopez was voted the second best change-up of American League pitchers (they also voted Duran the best fastball and third best curve). It's also hard to argue that 2-0 in the postseason, with 12.2 IP and a 0.71 ERA against the Blue Jays and Astros is not the line of an Ace. For that matter, 234 Ks in 194 innings pitched in the regular season and an 11-8 record. Maybe you meant a different Lopez?

[Mike Sixel]

22 minutes ago, ashbury said:

The investment of $30M in Vazquez was pretty clearly intended to pay for starting-caliber play at catcher.  That didn't pan out.  If they had it to do over, maybe the FO  would choose someone/something different.

But that's now water under the bridge.  Every FO makes regrettable choices, and rarely do they get do-overs.

The remaining $20M investment still provides a floor.  Vazquez's 2023 performance, especially in the second half, was credible as a backup catcher.  If Vazquez disappears somehow during this off-season, that floor of backup performance still needs to be acquired, because the third catcher on the 40-man roster currently does not provide a floor at all - Camargo may prove himself but his downside remains "AAA only."

If it's true that Vazquez is so upset about his zero playing time in the post-season that he's demanded a trade, and if that resentment sticks, then Rocco made a nearly $20M mistake in October.  Disposing of Vazquez would cost assets at approximately that level, because you can't give him away at his salary; or clubhouse distractions if he stays and kvetches have a cost too.  But at the moment I'm not sure that this is more than someone's supposition, and it would be both regrettable and surprising if Rocco somehow failed to "read the room" on that particular lineup choice for 6 games.

It's all Rocco's fault. Right. 

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

The investment of $30M in Vazquez was pretty clearly intended to pay for starting-caliber play at catcher.  That didn't pan out.  If they had it to do over, maybe the FO  would choose someone/something different.

But that's now water under the bridge.  Every FO makes regrettable choices, and rarely do they get do-overs.

The remaining $20M investment still provides a floor.  Vazquez's 2023 performance, especially in the second half, was credible as a backup catcher.  If Vazquez disappears somehow during this off-season, that floor of backup performance still needs to be acquired, because the third catcher on the 40-man roster currently does not provide a floor at all - Camargo may prove himself but his downside remains "AAA only."

If it's true that Vazquez is so upset about his zero playing time in the post-season that he's demanded a trade, and if that resentment sticks, then Rocco made a nearly $20M mistake in October.  Disposing of Vazquez would cost assets at approximately that level, because you can't give him away at his salary; or clubhouse distractions if he stays and kvetches have a cost too.  But at the moment I'm not sure that this is more than someone's supposition, and it would be both regrettable and surprising if Rocco somehow failed to "read the room" on that particular lineup choice for 6 games.

Vazquez is upset? 

[arby58]

6 hours ago, saviking said:

I've been saying this all season but most don't want to acknowledge signing Correa was a bad move especially when they had Lewis and Lee cued up to play shortstop ..

Last year, Lewis was not 'cued up' to play shortstop - they didn't reinstate him from the IL until May 29. Lee was at AA until August. The 20-20 hindsight on the Correa deal is not really fair - and also overlooks he had a very good postseason. There is plenty of reason to think the issue last year was plantar fasciitis, and he will return to his previous norm in 2024.

[Fatbat]

6 hours ago, saviking said:

I've been saying this all season but most don't want to acknowledge signing Correa was a bad move especially when they had Lewis and Lee cued up to play shortstop ..

If C4 had 15 less GDP and 30 more hits, he would have been right in line with his career averages.  He played hurt most of the season so I would expect he will have much better stats in ‘24 when healthy. I got no problem paying $33M for the best C4. 

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

The investment of $30M in Vazquez was pretty clearly intended to pay for starting-caliber play at catcher.  That didn't pan out.  If they had it to do over, maybe the FO  would choose someone/something different.

But that's now water under the bridge.  Every FO makes regrettable choices, and rarely do they get do-overs.

The remaining $20M investment still provides a floor.  Vazquez's 2023 performance, especially in the second half, was credible as a backup catcher.  If Vazquez disappears somehow during this off-season, that floor of backup performance still needs to be acquired, because the third catcher on the 40-man roster currently does not provide a floor at all - Camargo may prove himself but his downside remains "AAA only."

If it's true that Vazquez is so upset about his zero playing time in the post-season that he's demanded a trade, and if that resentment sticks, then Rocco made a nearly $20M mistake in October.  Disposing of Vazquez would cost assets at approximately that level, because you can't give him away at his salary; or clubhouse distractions if he stays and kvetches have a cost too.  But at the moment I'm not sure that this is more than someone's supposition, and it would be both regrettable and surprising if Rocco somehow failed to "read the room" on that particular lineup choice for 6 games.

I think it's a really bad idea to make up a playoff lineup around appeasing players, especially one that was hitting as poorly as Vazquez.  If Vazquez is going to be a problem because he is pouting, the better solution is to dump him for whatever they can get and get players who care about the team and winning.  

[tony&rodney]

20 hours ago, rv78 said:

That 2023 Carlos Correa deal is what is leading to the Twins cutting payroll. Overspending eventually leads to cuts and the biggest overspend goes to the guy with the highest payroll. In 2023 Correa was about the 15th ranked SS in the majors and he was paid like he was top 3. Add in Buxtons $15M for being a "half the time DH" and you've got the two biggest flushes down the toilet of cash in Twins history.

Please explain how anyone can undo the past. We might as well bemoan coming in second in an attempt to sign Juan Soto or re-examine why the Twins drafted (? - Gibson) instead of Mike Trout and on and on.

There are always options to move forward.

[Twinsrtheworst]

So the sky is falling...again?  

[Doctor Wu]

20 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

I’m not really buying in on the idea of trading Vazquez this winter. His value is at the lowest it can be - in order to trade him now the Twins will have to eat around $10 of the remaining $20 million on his contract, or attach him with a pretty good prospect.

Why not wait until the 2024 trade deadline to see if he bounces back? The catcher position is weak throughout MLB and there will be opportunities down the road. 

I agree, His trade value is very low at this point, and the relatively high salary makes it even that much more difficult to unload him. As others have stated, he's still good defensively and handy to have as a backup, especially if that injury bug hits us again. 

[Doctor Wu]

On 11/26/2023 at 10:42 PM, stringer bell said:

Paddack had is TJ surgery in April of '22, so he is closer to two years past TJ. He has an injury history, of course, and could well end up on the injured list in the coming season, but so too could Ober, Ryan and López.

I would consider López as an ace, every bit as much as Gray and maybe more so. 

Yes, Paddack might be more durable than many are thinking. As you noted, it will be closer to 2 years since his TJ surgery. He might be one of those sleepers that outperforms all the expectations this year. And yes to Lopez being the better option as staff ace over Sonny Gray. 

[Doctor Wu]

I was hoping that the Twins would be able to re-sign Maeda, but looks like the Tigers got him. Not the end of the world, but I liked Maeda and thought he would be a stable force in the rotation next year. Now it looks like we will lose both him and Gray. Paddack can slide into one of those spots, but I think we would need another quality/veteran arm in the rotation, as opposed to rolling the dice on Varland, Winder, or Woods-Richardson being able to hold a spot effectively. I seriously doubt that the Twins will be in play for any free agents, so making a trade is really our only path forward. 

[PatG]

On 11/25/2023 at 8:14 PM, CRF said:

It really was depressing and deflating to hear Falvey talk about reducing payroll after the season they had. Ownership has plenty of money. Enough to keep the payroll where it's currently at. Even bump it a bit. The Twins just aren't their priority. They just don't seem to want to do what's necessary for another WS trophy. Sure, the loss of revenue from the tv package hurts. We're not the only team in that boat. I hope that Falvey is throwing up a little bit of a smoke screen, and will surprise us with what he does over the winter...in both signings and trades. 

Not re-signing Gallo is "cutting" payroll

[PatG]

14 hours ago, arby58 said:

Last year, Lewis was not 'cued up' to play shortstop - they didn't reinstate him from the IL until May 29. Lee was at AA until August. The 20-20 hindsight on the Correa deal is not really fair - and also overlooks he had a very good postseason. There is plenty of reason to think the issue last year was plantar fasciitis, and he will return to his previous norm in 2024.

Folks forget about the positive psychological impact (ppi) that Correa's signing had on the organization. 

We also forget about the ppi that Vazquez's signing had on the organization.  Remember 2 years ago, some folks had already moved on from Jeffers

[TwinsDr2021]

20 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

How many other staffs have 6 starters that are very capable of sub 4.00 ERA & over .500 W-L records?………we currently have 5 guys.

The Twins have 5 guys?

Lopez, Ober sure,  Paddack hasn't had an ERA under 4 since 2019, Ryan has been over 4.00 two of his three years, and Varland?

If you use that kind of criteria I think most teams have 5 guys capable. Now I like am OK with that staff but while I was against starting Ober in the minors last year, I am all for starting Varland there and bringing in another guy, because at this time there is little to no starting pitcher depth what so ever.

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Yes, Paddack might be durable than many are thinking. As you noted, it will be closer to 2 years since his TJ surgery. He might be one of those sleepers that outperforms all the expectations this year. 

Or he might be the average pitcher he's been since 2020. Planning on all your players to have a career year is a plan to fall short of expectations.

[saviking]

18 hours ago, arby58 said:

Last year, Lewis was not 'cued up' to play shortstop - they didn't reinstate him from the IL until May 29. Lee was at AA until August. The 20-20 hindsight on the Correa deal is not really fair - and also overlooks he had a very good postseason. There is plenty of reason to think the issue last year was plantar fasciitis, and he will return to his previous norm in 2024.

But we did have Kyle Farner cued up to play.  Kyle's production would have been as good or better with the same number of at-bats, and from what I remember, he played very well at shortstop. Correa did play well in the playoffs, I'll give him that, but Correa's overall play didn't warrant 30 million more in salary. Farmer was only intended to be a stop-gap until Lewis was ready. Had we not signed Correa, I'm sure Lewis would have been prepped at short with Lee in the wings. 

Correa didn't play up to his salary the first year we had him, and two teams backed out of contracts due to injury concerns. And it was an injury that slowed down his season this year. Are our doctors right and the other teams wrong? We better hope so because we have a 36 million-dollar nose hanging around our heads if they aren't

A small market team like ours (and getting smaller with the TV issues) does not have the luxury of making that big of a mistake. Correa has started out both seasons with a cold bat through at least the first half of the season if not longer. Let's pray that doesn't happen again and his ankle holds up. 

I like Correa as a person and have not been rooting against him but I haven't let his personality or star status get in the way of my analysis. 

[saviking]

18 hours ago, Fatbat said:

If C4 had 15 less GDP and 30 more hits, he would have been right in line with his career averages.  He played hurt most of the season so I would expect he will have much better stats in ‘24 when healthy. I got no problem paying $33M for the best C4. 

The question is will he hit better than Lewis and play way better at shortstop because for a small market team, not out-performing a player making 32 million less is a disaster.

I feel Lewis has the ability to be every bit of a clubhouse leader than Correa and has been a teammate of our young players throughout the minors..  I'm just saying his statistics don't come anywhere close to matching his performance. And the number of double-play rally killers he had last year take a lot off of his statistics that don't show up. 

[tony&rodney]

Anyone bemoaning the past would benefit from looking to the present and thinking of how past decisions will influence your ideas that in turn create a difference in the future. Keep your ideas in the present looking forward with knowledge gained from the past as a guide. Nobody can reverse what already happened.

The manner in which Twins fans complained about Joe Mauer still shows up in comments on national articles, painting Twins fans as dimwitted and bereft of baseball knowledge. This just surfaced recently when all of the articles came out on the Hall of Fame voting this year, a ballot that includes Joe Mauer. Don't be that person.

[stringer bell]

If he's healthy, Correa should rebound. He's been a good hitter for too long to forget how to hit and he'll play 90% of 2024 as a 29 year old. If C-4 comes down with a disabling injury, the Twins have Brooks Lee ready to take his place. That's a good situation to be in. With both Gray and Maeda off the board, the Twins may have to make a trade to get another starting pitcher. Finding another Sonny Gray would be the goal.

 

[arby58]

2 hours ago, saviking said:

But we did have Kyle Farner cued up to play.  Kyle's production would have been as good or better with the same number of at-bats, and from what I remember, he played very well at shortstop. Correa did play well in the playoffs, I'll give him that, but Correa's overall play didn't warrant 30 million more in salary. Farmer was only intended to be a stop-gap until Lewis was ready. Had we not signed Correa, I'm sure Lewis would have been prepped at short with Lee in the wings. 

Correa didn't play up to his salary the first year we had him, and two teams backed out of contracts due to injury concerns. And it was an injury that slowed down his season this year. Are our doctors right and the other teams wrong? We better hope so because we have a 36 million-dollar nose hanging around our heads if they aren't

A small market team like ours (and getting smaller with the TV issues) does not have the luxury of making that big of a mistake. Correa has started out both seasons with a cold bat through at least the first half of the season if not longer. Let's pray that doesn't happen again and his ankle holds up. 

I like Correa as a person and have not been rooting against him but I haven't let his personality or star status get in the way of my analysis. 

First, the response was to a comment that said the Twins had Lewis and Lee cued up to play - and that was not true.

Second, the Twins made the play-offs (and Correa was arguably their best position player in them), so it certainly wasn't a  'mistake' last year - it's possible the Twins don't beat Toronto if Correa wasn't playing shortstop for them.

If Correa returns to form next year, it certainly won't be a mistake. The planter fasciitis that plagued him last year wasn't even remotely related to the past ankle injury concern expressed by the two other teams (neither of whom made the play-offs, BTW).

I don't know anything about Correa as a person - my analysis is based on the Twins results last year, and his career to date. The guy has put up 40.9 WAR in the equivalent of about 8 years in MLB, he's won a Gold Glove, been a three-time All Star, Rookie of the Year, and will be entering his age 30 season. To claim the signing was a 'mistake' based on one sub-par year strikes me as based on entirely insufficient evidence.

[tony&rodney]

On 11/26/2023 at 2:09 PM, TopGunn#22 said:

Sanchez is a Wild Card with a 99 mph fastball and a 96 mph sinker who works at St. Paul to begin the season and can be called up to start or relieve later in the season.

 

Sanchez was a pitcher that intrigued me. Sadly, when he returned fully healthy last summer the former stuff did not. Sixto topped out at 85 mph with his fastball in 2023. This was the last report I read several weeks ago. Hopefully he can return to full force in the future for his sake. Unfortunately, Sanchez is out of options. He will most likely be released in February or earlier if Miami needs a spot on the 40 person roster. 

Miami hopes that Cabrera can harness his pitches. Last year did not go well for him. The Marlins will want to see him in Spring Training. He is also out of options and i had hoped the Twins might get him for Larnach and Winder. I would think that Polanco is worth more to the Twins and many other teams than Cabrera.

[ashbury]

On 11/26/2023 at 12:11 PM, Mike Sixel said:

It's all Rocco's fault. Right. 

 

On 11/26/2023 at 12:51 PM, Riverbrian said:

Vazquez is upset? 

You're both right to call out that last paragraph.  What I had in mind was a comment made by another TD member in another thread, and I thought by prefacing what I said here with "if" in a couple of places would be clear enough, but obviously (now) it wasn't.

I do think it's a possibility that there is more going on here than just payroll considerations, but I've not seen anyone reputable offer whispered scuttlebutt about Vazquez's own view.

[DJL44]

22 hours ago, saviking said:

Correa didn't play up to his salary the first year we had him

Correa absolutely earned his paycheck in 2022. The Twins have received 7 WAR for $68M over 2 seasons which is just slightly more than the going rate of $9M/WAR for free agents. Then they got a fantastic postseason performance from him which nearly makes up the $5M difference.