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Posted
11 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's controllable for 2 more years, and I'm told the 10MM is a massive bargain......so, I'm not ignoring any context at all. 

He is a bargain, but that's relative.

IMO it's unlikely another team sends a great pitching or catching prospect in return for him, that doesn't mean he "isn't worth playing." 

Posted
2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Those 26 guys need to play a position....and Julien and Polanco play the same position. I don't get how that's not a thing....you can't have, for example, 26 pitchers or 26 slow, plodding catchers. 

You want to have a deep farm system, you have to deal vets that are redundant....even when the team is good. 

Polanco can't play SS or 3B, other than in an emergency. He isn't a catcher, or OF. That leaves 2B, 1B, and DH......A team with budget constraints can't have a 10MM player that is a utility/bench player. So he's a starter. Where are you starting him? And if you are starting him, who is on the bench (2B, 1B, or DH.....Julien, AK, Buxton most likely). I'm ok if you want him at 1B or DH "full time".....but is that really the best use of him?

You are making him a utility/bench player... I'm not. 😉

I'm telling that it's not a thing...You have to personally make into a thing to make it a thing. You make it into a thing by creating self created absolutes like "Polanco can't play SS or 3B, other than in an emergency".

First off... Most people think that Polanco is a better 2B than Julien but Julien's defensive shortcomings are OK while Polanco's defensive shortcomings are made into absolutes. I hear ya but that logic is selective.  

2nd off... Emergencies happen every single year. When was the last time the Twins went through a season with 4 infielders staying off the disabled list. Why would anyone expect it to occur in 2024 and why would anyone shorten a 26 man roster knowing that 162 game health hasn't occurred in our memories. Especially when nobody has the ability to predict the sequence of injuries to our infield that will surely occur in 2024. 

Polanco played 15 games at 3B last year during the regular season and we still made the playoffs.

Why did he play 3B? Because Miranda was anointed the primary 3B going into the season after a real nice first year and he failed in his 2nd year and got himself sent down, Because Lewis was hurt for the first few months and then landed on the disabled list two more times after he was initially reinstated. Because Julien who didn't make the opening day 26 man roster started to hit the ball much like Miranda did in 2022 and made himself necessary and the team had to adjust to a new combination of players that made the team better.

Rocco and the front office could have easily gone with Farmer at 3B when Polanco and Julien were in the same lineup together out of necessity. They didn't because the combination of Polanco and Julien made our lineup better and they didn't because they still were not allowing Julien to hit left handers and Farmer needed to come to face the left handed emergency. Polanco started 3 games at 3B in the playoffs. We won two of them. Lewis was hurt again. Rocco could have started Farmer at 3B with everything on the line. He chose Polanco again at 3B. 

As for SS... Correa is much much much better defensively at SS this is true. Polanco was shifted to 2B because Polanco handles 2B better than he handles SS... I also believe this to be true. I want to be clear that I am not advocating that Polanco plays SS in 2024...  But... But... back in 2019... Polanco played 142 games at SS and we won 101 games so please... no absolutes. We are taking degrees... This player might be better at a position... this player might be a better hitter. We are talking degrees but a better player is a better player. 

I will never choose a lesser player for a roster because of a little crowding... I will never choose a lesser player for a roster because I'm looking for a backup who I really really hope doesn't play. I will never assume that a player on the roster will not play. I will assume that players on the 26 man roster will play and play a lot.

This team has depth... we can survive the injuries that will surely come... keep that depth and make your top end stronger. Don't give up top end for prospects.  

Posted
18 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

.223/.376/.369 with a 32% K rate. That was Julien from August through the end of the year. He has to be able to stick defensively and show he's capable of handling LHP too. This isn't a slam dunk. 

Glad someone raised what I thought I remembered. Julien was not a good hitter the last 2 months of the season. Could just be a rookie going through adjustments, could be that he isn't more than a .250/.350/.375 kind of hitter. He's improved at 2B, from pretty bad to right around average, unlikely ever to be a much better than average or slightly above average fielder. I hope I'm wrong on both counts but that may be who he is - a slightly above average 2B who's primary calling card is the ability to draw walks. Not a bad guy to have, but not a core guy at 2B. He also might regress to an offensive liability. Oh that's right, if Julien regresses, we got Brooks Lee. Well, Lee might be an all-star some day but let's pump the brakes a bit. We always see his overall MiLB stats but let's throw out AA and focus on AAA. He hit .237/.304/.429(.733) in AAA. That doesn't sound like a guy ready for the bigs in 2024. Not even close. 

This is what makes the Polanco decision tough. The alternatives are there but far from assured. If we can get mid rotation or higher starting pitching for him or with him leading a package, then great make the trade. In the more likely event that we can't, it's a big risk to move him for prospects or a back end innings eater starter. 

Posted

I completely agree that Polanco will likely be traded this winter.  There are lots of reasons this makes complete sense.

1. $10M payroll savings.  We're a team on a short budget.  This will help.  A lot.

2. His replacement - Eduard Julien - is already in house and mostly outplayed him last year in the majors, certainly offensively and by the end of the season the gap defensively was closing as well.

3. Polanco's 2 years of team control make him quite valuable - likely more valuable than anybody on the free agent market at second base.

4. His health has been a little scary for a couple of years -- a lot will depend on what the team doctors think of that situation, but I think that makes us want to deal him and replace him with someone younger with a likely less injury risk.

5. The other obvious trade candidate (Kepler) isn't as replaceable in house.  I would likely trade him also, mostly for the payroll savings, but that's a harder call to make.

6. Polanco's trade value is relatively high and his presence is blocking young players with great potential.  Remember a catcher named AJ Pierzynski? He was 26 year old former all-star coming off an .824 OPS as a catcher.  It didn't work out so well because the intended catcher got hurt, but the next year we found out why the trade was made.   The same thing happened midseason in 2004(?) when a Gold Glove winning first baseman was shipped out to make room for a future MVP Canadian slugger.  I'm not declaring that Julien and Lee will be as good as Mauer and Morneau, but they are pretty valuable.

7. Saying that Polanco on his own won't return a front line starter is correct, but that's not the point.  As the major league piece of a good package, he could definitely bring back an excellent starter.  The Twins definitely have prospects to trade, and if they just trade Polanco for prospects, then they have even more prospects to trade. 

I have long been a big Polanco fan.  I thank him for his contributions.  I wish him well in the future.  Then, I trade him for something that fits the team's long-term plans. 

Posted

I think it comes down to keeping Farmer at say 6.5m vs keeping Polanco at the 10.5m.  So to say it's a 10m savings to our payroll wouldn't hold true.  Savings would be closer to 4m.  Then add in the salary of said player returning in a trade.  I just don't see it as an optimal way of saving payroll.

Posted
14 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

You are making him a utility/bench player... I'm not. 😉

I'm telling that it's not a thing...You have to personally make into a thing to make it a thing. You make it into a thing by creating self created absolutes like "Polanco can't play SS or 3B, other than in an emergency".

First off... Most people think that Polanco is a better 2B than Julien but Julien's defensive shortcomings are OK while Polanco's defensive shortcomings are made into absolutes. I hear ya but that logic is selective.  

2nd off... Emergencies happen every single year. When was the last time the Twins went through a season with 4 infielders staying off the disabled list. Why would anyone expect it to occur in 2024 and why would anyone shorten a 26 man roster knowing that 162 game health hasn't occurred in our memories. Especially when nobody has the ability to predict the sequence of injuries to our infield that will surely occur in 2024. 

Polanco played 15 games at 3B last year during the regular season and we still made the playoffs.

Why did he play 3B? Because Miranda was anointed the primary 3B going into the season after a real nice first year and he failed in his 2nd year and got himself sent down, Because Lewis was hurt for the first few months and then landed on the disabled list two more times after he was initially reinstated. Because Julien who didn't make the opening day 26 man roster started to hit the ball much like Miranda did in 2022 and made himself necessary and the team had to adjust to a new combination of players that made the team better.

Rocco and the front office could have easily gone with Farmer at 3B when Polanco and Julien were in the same lineup together out of necessity. They didn't because the combination of Polanco and Julien made our lineup better and they didn't because they still were not allowing Julien to hit left handers and Farmer needed to come to face the left handed emergency. Polanco started 3 games at 3B in the playoffs. We won two of them. Lewis was hurt again. Rocco could have started Farmer at 3B with everything on the line. He chose Polanco again at 3B. 

As for SS... Correa is much much much better defensively at SS this is true. Polanco was shifted to 2B because Polanco handles 2B better than he handles SS... I also believe this to be true. I want to be clear that I am not advocating that Polanco plays SS in 2024...  But... But... back in 2019... Polanco played 142 games at SS and we won 101 games so please... no absolutes. We are taking degrees... This player might be better at a position... this player might be a better hitter. We are talking degrees but a better player is a better player. 

I will never choose a lesser player for a roster because of a little crowding... I will never choose a lesser player for a roster because I'm looking for a backup who I really really hope doesn't play. I will never assume that a player on the roster will not play. I will assume that players on the 26 man roster will play and play a lot.

This team has depth... we can survive the injuries that will surely come... keep that depth and make your top end stronger. Don't give up top end for prospects.  

2019 is a long time ago for a professional athlete. Four years removed from the last time they really trusted him to play SS.

I'll ask more directly, what position does Polanco start in, and who is benched because of it? They aren't paying him 10 million to be anything other than a starter. 

Posted
1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

2019 is a long time ago for a professional athlete. Four years removed from the last time they really trusted him to play SS.

I'll ask more directly, what position does Polanco start in, and who is benched because of it? They aren't paying him 10 million to be anything other than a starter. 

Are you asking me about 9 players who start all 162 games or are you asking me about 13 players who can all perform?

What's the team context when the lineup card is made out?

Are we adding any players to the roster?

Are we subtracting any players from the roster?

Is Julien hitting .200?

Is Julien hitting .350?

How is Kirilloff doing? 

How is Wallner doing?

Is Julien allowed to hit left-handed pitching? Is Kirilloff or Wallner allowed to hit left handed pitching? Is there a right hander starting or is there a left hander starting?  

Who is healthy? Who is not? 

Donovan Solano played in 134 games last year. Willi Castro played in 124 games last year. I was extremely happy with both Solano and Castro last year but Polanco was better. 

If you are asking me "directly" how the playing time is arranged if everyone is healthy for 162 games and everybody is performing to expectation.

Well... in that scenario... I'm not going to care that much because everybody is healthy and performing to expectation... therefore we are going to be fine as a baseball club no matter how the playing time is distributed.

But... OK... I'll answer your question using a season long context that will not happen because it never happens. Julien can play 1B, DH or 2B... Polanco can play 2B, DH and occasional 1B and 3B. 

You make these decisions in the off-season under the assumption that not everybody is going to be fine. That's how Solano played 134 Games and Castro played in 124 games because Miranda wasn't fine, Lewis wasn't healthy, We didn't know what Julien could do in his first go round.    

 

Posted
8 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Are you asking me about 9 players who start all 162 games or are you asking me about 13 players who can all perform?

What's the team context when the lineup card is made out?

Are we adding any players to the roster?

Are we subtracting any players from the roster?

Is Julien hitting .200?

Is Julien hitting .350?

How is Kirilloff doing? 

How is Wallner doing?

Is Julien allowed to hit left-handed pitching? Is Kirilloff or Wallner allowed to hit left handed pitching? Is there a right hander starting or is there a left hander starting?  

Who is healthy? Who is not? 

Donovan Solano played in 134 games last year. Willi Castro played in 124 games last year. I was extremely happy with both Solano and Castro last year but Polanco was better. 

If you are asking me "directly" how the playing time is arranged if everyone is healthy for 162 games and everybody is performing to expectation.

Well... in that scenario... I'm not going to care that much because everybody is healthy and performing to expectation... therefore we are going to be fine as a baseball club no matter how the playing time is distributed.

But... OK... I'll answer your question using a season long context that will not happen because it never happens. Julien can play 1B, DH or 2B... Polanco can play 2B, DH and occasional 1B and 3B. 

You make these decisions in the off-season under the assumption that not everybody is going to be fine. That's how Solano played 134 Games and Castro played in 124 games because Miranda wasn't fine, Lewis wasn't healthy, We didn't know what Julien could do in his first go round.    

 

To piggyback on this, there were 925 PAs that went to Solano, Gallo, Luplow, Stevenson, and Garlick last year. There is unquestionably starter level PAs available for Polanco.

Posted
1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

 

I'll ask more directly, what position does Polanco start in, and who is benched because of it? They aren't paying him 10 million to be anything other than a starter. 

Second Base -- Julien will have to find a spot where his poor glove work is not a hindrance.

Posted
1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

To piggyback on this, there were 925 PAs that went to Solano, Gallo, Luplow, Stevenson, and Garlick last year. There is unquestionably starter level PAs available for Polanco.

Exactly

And to remain on that pigs back... riding that wild hog further.

27% of all Twins plate appearances came from players who were not on the opening day roster.  

And if you consider the following players to be our STARTING 9 coming out of the off-season:

Buxton DH

Vazquez C

Gallo 1B

Polanco 2B

Miranda 3B

Correa SS

Larnach LF

Taylor CF

Kepler RF

51% of all plate appearances came from the consensus starting 9 coming out of the off-season... and I swapped Polanco for Gordon who actually started opening day at 2B with Polanco on the DL. Swap Larnach for Kililloff if you like... it'll still be around 51%. 

When you are staffing your roster and making hard decisions... Always take the better player. Under no circumstance do you purposely take the lesser player. 

 

 

Posted

I've been reading all of the "We can't survive without Polanco" talk here.  I like him a lot, but the time comes when his value may be better represented by the players you can get in trade for him and by the roster space freed up by not having him around anymore.  No.  You can't trade him for a front line pitcher by himself, he's just not as valuable as Arraez was last year.  You can, however, put him in a package to do so.  OR, you trade him for prospects to flip into a pitcher (or a CF'er or a power bat 1B'er). 

Do we know exactly what Lewis will do? Do we know exactly what Julien will do?  Wallner?  How about Miranda?  Nope.  We don't.  But we also don't know exactly what any other player will do either, including Polanco, Kiriloff, Correa, or Buxton.  They all have causes for optimism and all have causes for pessimism. I would rather take my chances with the youngsters being healthy and productive.  For any of the Julien, Wallner, Lewis crowd, last year might have been the warmup act to something remarkable.  It would seem that there will be no magical breakout for Polanco, Correa, or Buxton.  Good as they are/have been, we know their ceiling.  I think we will be pleasantly surprised by what we see from the youngsters this year. 

Posted
1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Are you asking me about 9 players who start all 162 games or are you asking me about 13 players who can all perform?

What's the team context when the lineup card is made out?

Are we adding any players to the roster?

Are we subtracting any players from the roster?

Is Julien hitting .200?

Is Julien hitting .350?

How is Kirilloff doing? 

How is Wallner doing?

Is Julien allowed to hit left-handed pitching? Is Kirilloff or Wallner allowed to hit left handed pitching? Is there a right hander starting or is there a left hander starting?  

Who is healthy? Who is not? 

Donovan Solano played in 134 games last year. Willi Castro played in 124 games last year. I was extremely happy with both Solano and Castro last year but Polanco was better. 

If you are asking me "directly" how the playing time is arranged if everyone is healthy for 162 games and everybody is performing to expectation.

Well... in that scenario... I'm not going to care that much because everybody is healthy and performing to expectation... therefore we are going to be fine as a baseball club no matter how the playing time is distributed.

But... OK... I'll answer your question using a season long context that will not happen because it never happens. Julien can play 1B, DH or 2B... Polanco can play 2B, DH and occasional 1B and 3B. 

You make these decisions in the off-season under the assumption that not everybody is going to be fine. That's how Solano played 134 Games and Castro played in 124 games because Miranda wasn't fine, Lewis wasn't healthy, We didn't know what Julien could do in his first go round.    

 

I'm asking, on day one, where does Polanco play? Solano was paid all of how much money to be a backup? That's my point....is Polanco starting day one, and if so, where? I feel like we are at a crossroads here, and it doesn't do anyone any good to continue. You feel they will keep Polanco without a defined position for 10MM a year, and I don't. I'm ok with disagreeing.

Posted
1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

To piggyback on this, there were 925 PAs that went to Solano, Gallo, Luplow, Stevenson, and Garlick last year. There is unquestionably starter level PAs available for Polanco.

All paid to be backups.....which they were (other than Gallo). Are you paying Polanco 10MM to be a backup? If not, where does he start day one?

Posted

If you want to get a SP to succeed Gray and not do the payroll-destroying dip into free agency, you’re going to have to trade somebody, probably multiple somebodies. Better players will draw better players in return. Even for math, this is pretty simple. Not an epsilon nor delta in sight.

Posted
7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm asking, on day one, where does Polanco play? Solano was paid all of how much money to be a backup? That's my point....is Polanco starting day one, and if so, where? I feel like we are at a crossroads here, and it doesn't do anyone any good to continue. You feel they will keep Polanco without a defined position for 10MM a year, and I don't. I'm ok with disagreeing.

I have no feeling on what the Twins will do. They have things to sort out and it all starts today when they add players that they want to protect to the 40 man roster. 

Mike, I knew that I was going to be at a crossroads with some when I was thinking about chiming in. 

We will disagree... I have moved on from a simple starting 9 a long time ago and I'm not coming back.  

Posted
47 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

All paid to be backups.....which they were (other than Gallo). Are you paying Polanco 10MM to be a backup? If not, where does he start day one?

1B, 2B, or DH all work just fine for me. If the argument is going to be "Buxton is the DH" you can just skip it. Locking him into the everyday DH role again would be a horrible roster management decision. 3B would be fine with me, too, if Royce isn't able to go again. He's not exactly the most reliable when it comes to staying healthy.

I don't care if they were paid to be backups or not. Donovan Solano got 450 plate appearances last year. That is not a "backup" number of plate appearances. Planning for the only guys to get big numbers of PAs being the 9 games you plan to be opening day starters is incredibly unrealistic, and horrible roster management. I think you're putting way too much emphasis on "day one" instead of 162 games, but even just looking at day 1 he's one of the 9 best players currently on this roster so I don't get why you think there's just nowhere to play him. All we've been hearing about since Falvey got here was "roster flexibility." If you can't get one of your 4 or 5 best hitters in your lineup you don't have flexibility. As of this very moment I don't see how anyone can think the 2024 team is better by trading Polanco for prospects. Removing one of your best hitters for prospects is not how you improve your team. It simply isn't.

Posted
5 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

if Julien regresses, we got Brooks Lee.

and Willi Castro and Kyle Farmer and potentially the next Willi Castro in free agency

Posted

I think you consider trading Polanco because of the return, not because of potential AB,s, or lack there of. Of the players you’re willing to part with, who is going to net the greatest return? There are players that you won’t deal. Polanco isn’t on the untouchable list, partly because there are viable replacements and he should net a nice return. 
After the FO gauges his market value, Polanco might still be a Twin for 2024. I’m reading that the Reds are making India available with the idea he will net a quality SP.  Who knows how accurate that will turn out to be, but if India nets a SP, you have to think Polanco would also.

The other side of the coin is you should hold onto proven veteran players if you’re serious about contending. That means prospects are trade capital instead. 
One thing is for certain, pitching is expensive. Prospects or veterans, either way will be painful. 

Posted
On 11/13/2023 at 1:55 PM, AWOLNATION_11 said:

The front office/coaches would know better than me, but I would think that Polanco has enough athleticism and ability to play 1B.  Why isn't the plan to have Polanco work on 1B in the offseason to help be a solution to that 'offseason need'?  

Personally, I'd rather see them do this with Julien and keep Polanco at 2B.

Posted
8 hours ago, se7799 said:

I think it comes down to keeping Farmer at say 6.5m vs keeping Polanco at the 10.5m.  So to say it's a 10m savings to our payroll wouldn't hold true.  Savings would be closer to 4m.  Then add in the salary of said player returning in a trade.  I just don't see it as an optimal way of saving payroll.

Farmer is a prototypical utility infielder. He’s the best fielder at 2B and 3B, and a very good SS, who hits acceptably off the bench. Polanco and Castro dont have the same skills, and were the Twins to trade/DFA Farmer, they’d still need a quality fielding utility infielder. Also, Farmer fetched a 26 year old minor league pitcher with a career 4.33 ERA and had to be added to the 40 to be protected from rule 5. Is the trade return likely to be better than that? Or worse with a Farmer’s higher salary and less control?

We can debate how good of a second baseman Polanco and Julien are, but the two of them are both bat-first 2Bs. Neither have shown capability outside of 2B and DH.
 

Polanco should command a much better return than Farmer, and combined with a prospect could return MLB starting pitching.

my feeling is that combined with the 40 man requirements and the self imposed budget constraint, Polanco makes the most sense in a trade.

edit to add, I don’t want the team to “shed payroll”, but I do want them to get better without emptying the farm. I think Polanco can be “easily” replaced and provide value in trade.

 

Posted
On 11/12/2023 at 6:07 PM, DocBauer said:

Switch hitter, though better from the left side, who is a quality bat to ball hitter for AVG, contact, solid OB%, and 30 double 20HR power. 

Sound like Polanco? It is. But it would also describe Brooks Lee. And that's why Polanco...who remains controllable for 2 more years...might be traded.

I don't bieve the Twins WANT to trade Polanco. But he's got good value. And while Lee might not be quite ready yet, he's pretty close. And in the meantime, Julien and Farmer could provide a quality quasi platoon at 2B, along with Castro, and Farmer can also be a valuable utility INF, along with Castro. 

Moving Polanco also frees up $10M to use at 1B, or a RH OF, or whatever SP is eventually signed or traded for. 

Not saying it's going to happen, but he's a pretty obvious candidate to be in demand, possibly moved, doesn't really weaken the lineup with his absence considering the alternative options, and may help strengthen another area of the club.

I don't see any way Kepler gets moved without hurting the club. I'm banking on 4 months of the "new and improved" Kepler isn't a SSS or mirage. But if he's moved, who takes his spot? Acquiring a replacement via FA or trade replaces him, it doesn't ADD to the team. And I don't see a ready made replacement in the system unless Larnach takes a big step forward, as Rodriguez, Rosario, and others are too far away yet.

 

If Larnach takes a step it probably won't be here.

Posted

The Twins already have a solution on their roster for first base, or at least a viable proposal. Why not use Jeffers in a platoon at 1B with Kiriloff? They liked his bat enough to give him all the starts at catcher during the playoffs. If they feel they need a catcher on the bench when Jeffers is at 1B, there is Camargo already on the 40 man. Or stick with two catchers since Jeffers would only play against LH, so not that many games. 

Posted
On 11/12/2023 at 1:51 PM, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I am curious as to why everyone thinks the Twins will move Polanco.

He is an upper tier hitter for his position, he can play multiple positions, he is relatively cheap, good clubhouse guy and tenured Twin...

On a team that has issues on offense, you trade one of your better offensive players?  I don't think there is another Lopez-type pitcher out there to be had...

Because his value is high right now and he has players that can replace him at -- at least 90% of production and 10% of the cost. Same reason we should be moving Max. We have replacement players in the system that need to play and if we can get a pitcher great... if not if we can get quality minor leaguers that can contribute in the future that is also a win. Win/Win/Win... 

Mind you I like both players but we have to look at the big pitcher. 

Posted
1 hour ago, 1985Fan said:

The Twins already have a solution on their roster for first base, or at least a viable proposal. Why not use Jeffers in a platoon at 1B with Kiriloff? They liked his bat enough to give him all the starts at catcher during the playoffs. If they feel they need a catcher on the bench when Jeffers is at 1B, there is Camargo already on the 40 man. Or stick with two catchers since Jeffers would only play against LH, so not that many games. 

He has played 1 whole game at First Base, Brilliant.

Posted
13 minutes ago, specialiststeve said:

Because his value is high right now and he has players that can replace him at -- at least 90% of production and 10% of the cost. Same reason we should be moving Max. We have replacement players in the system that need to play and if we can get a pitcher great... if not if we can get quality minor leaguers that can contribute in the future that is also a win. Win/Win/Win... 

Mind you I like both players but we have to look at the big pitcher. 

His fielding at Second Base far better than Julien's; there is not replacement for him at second base.

Posted
20 minutes ago, RpR said:

His fielding at Second Base far better than Julien's; there is not replacement for him at second base.

By the end of 2023 Julien had improved and Polanco had declined in fielding that they were basically the same. Was Polanco's due to injury and will he return to his old form? IMO, no he won't. 

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