Avoiding the Sophomore Slump: Where Can Royce Lewis Improve for 2024?

[Cody Christie]

Royce Lewis showcased his star potential during his rookie season with the Twins. Some players can struggle during their sophomore season. Here are three areas where he can improve for the 2024 campaign.

Image courtesy of Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

It was hard to know what to expect from Royce Lewis during his rookie season. The former number-one overall pick missed parts of two seasons following ACL surgery, and the pandemic took away an entire minor league season. These speed bumps meant Lewis missed significant development time, which can be essential for a prospect to fulfill their full potential. Lewis didn’t seem to miss a beat by hitting .309/.372/.548 (.921) with 15 home runs and seven doubles in 58 games. He became a grand slam machine during the regular season, and his strong performance carried over into October.  

The Twins won their first playoff series since 2002, and Lewis was at the heart of the victories. He hit four home runs in six playoff games, including critical homers in the series against Toronto. Overall, he went 5-for-22 with four homers and six runs scored. It was an impressive performance from the rookie, but there are still areas where he can improve from 2024 and beyond. 

Strikeout-to-Walk Rate
Lewis’ strikeout-to-walk rate was one area for him to improve after returning to the big-league level. He struck out 28 times and earned three walks in 99 plate appearances before going on the IL at the beginning of July (26 games). Following his return, he saw minor improvements in both areas. In 140 plate appearances (32 games), he struck out 27 times and was awarded 17 walks. He certainly seemed like a more patient hitter, which helped him to get into more favorable counts and improve his overall numbers. Lewis has shown improved power numbers, which typically comes with a higher strikeout rate, so it will be interesting to track if his walk rate improves with more time at the big-league level. 

Defense
The Twins shifted Lewis to third base because the team has Carlos Correa, a Gold Glove finalist, locked into shortstop for the foreseeable future. During his minor league career, he had only made ten starts at third base and played fewer than 80 innings at the position. Everything wasn’t perfect in his transition to the hot corner, and it seems likely for him to improve as he gets more repetitions at his new positions. There is also a chance the Twins have him move to another spot on the diamond, especially with other prospects getting closer to the big leagues, including Brooks Lee and Austin Martin. Lewis is athletic enough to thrive at any defensive position, especially since he isn’t spending this off-season rehabbing a knee injury. 

Sprint Speed
When the Twins drafted Lewis, some evaluators compared his speed tool to some of baseball’s best players. After two knee surgeries, Lewis has lost a step, with his sprint speed ranking in the 73rd percentile. There is potential for him to regain some of that speed as he gets further removed from his knee issues, but he has also added muscle during his rehab process. Minnesota was one of the worst base running teams during the first half of last season, and Lewis can help remedy some of the team’s flaws in this area. One way he can get more stolen base opportunities is if his walk rate continues to improve, so he gets more opportunities to be at first base. He went six-for-seven in stolen base attempts this season, and the Twins might let him run wild next year.

Twins fans have already started getting excited about Lewis, and his future can be even brighter if he takes the next step. Where does Lewis need to improve the most? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[EGFTShaw]

Technically not a sophomore until accrues 162 games... 😁

[Rod Carews Birthday]

The best thing he can do is ignore the Royce Lewis hype train that so many fans are on.  I think he's going to be a big, big star, but it seems unlikely that he is going to be a the several highlights per week player that we saw in his limited action this past season.  He needs to pace himself, stay healthy, and go out there everyday at his best.  It's a long season.  Based on what we have seen so far, the numbers will take care of themselves. 

The most obvious, and most likely place for improvement will be on defense, as he continues to get used to playing 3B.  He makes his share of highlight reel plays, but have the routine plays become just that, routine, for him will take him to the next level (see Correa, Carlos).

[CRF]

He's got all the tools and I think he'll improve across the board. I mainly just want him to put all the injuries behind him and have a full healthy season. 

[tony&rodney]

No doubt Lewis still needs to improve at third base. He has the arm and should have the reactions too. It is worth remembering that he was primarily a third baseman in high school and only an occasional shortstop.

A huge part of his maturation will be how he progresses on difficult breaking pitches. Royce needs a solid BB-K ratio.

[Mike Sixel]

It's very unlikely that's his normal hitting line, and people will call his regression to realistic, but still great numbers, a sophomore slump....

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

No doubt Lewis still needs to improve at third base. He has the arm and should have the reactions too. It is worth remembering that he was primarily a third baseman in high school and only an occasional shortstop.

A huge part of his maturation will be how he progresses on difficult breaking pitches. Royce needs a solid BB-K ratio.

Count me as one who wants him to stay at 3rd base, for the foreseeable future. Lee or no Lee, he needs some stability.  What he’s done is even crazier when you factor all the moving around without game experience.  I’d like for him to have a boring offseason for once and just work on his craft.  

[Blyleven2011]

Lewis is a great addition to the lineup  ,  I see him swinging at to many pitches  outside the box low and away especially  ...

I'd like that to be cleaned up and a better eye would increase his walk rate  ... 

I definitively have no problem with royce Lewis  hitting grand slams , he is a game changer ...

[tony&rodney]

53 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Count me as one who wants him to stay at 3rd base, for the foreseeable future. Lee or no Lee, he needs some stability.  What he’s done is even crazier when you factor all the moving around without game experience.  I’d like for him to have a boring offseason for once and just work on his craft.  

That's the plan according to Falvey and Baldelli.

[mikelink45]

His best asset is his attitude. 

[KirbyDome89]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

It's very unlikely that's his normal hitting line, and people will call his regression to realistic, but still great numbers, a sophomore slump....

This. Aside from the oblique and hamstring injuries, everything seemed to break right for Lewis this year. The grand slams, "clutch," hitting or at least the perception that he delivered in big moments, the HR binge, game one of the WC, the BAbip, on and on. A lot of it feels unsustainable, and that's ok, because he can still be a very good or even great player, but this season is going to be the standard for a while, which means some people are going to be disappointed. 

[ashbury]

8 hours ago, EGFTShaw said:

Technically not a sophomore until accrues 162 games... 😁

A good way to avoid the sophomore jinx is to win Rookie of the Year instead.

[jimmyc]

Cody check your math.  Even though they are both the dreaded 'small sample size' you refer to his strikeout and walk totals before and after his IL time, and refer to a minor improvement.  K/BB before 9.3.  K/BB after 1.5.  More than a minor improvement.  K% drop from 28% to 19%.  BB% up from 3% to 12%.   The after numbers are much closer to his career MiLB numbers, as his MiLB K/BB is 2.2.

[JoeCool]

I see Lewis as a special talent that transcends just statistics. He brings energy, hustle and drive in a way that is unique and reminds me a lot of Torii Hunter and Kirby Puckett.  This is contagious to others around him.  The hope is he does not forget to do the little things rather than the Twins philosophy of swinging for the fences. Getting on base, getting a good pitch to hit hard and do damage with and forcing pitchers to throw strikes is an area I would like to see improve in Lewis and the rest of the team.  
 

As for the glove I think he will improve greatly especially with Correa as a mentor.  

[Twinkie]

The Twins wanted their players to be hitters this year and shoot for the fences and try to anticipate the pitch that was coming which in the end produced a team with a record number of strikeouts. Lewis admitted at one point that he started to ignore that philosophy and instead decided to just try to get a hit by swinging the bat at what pitch he saw coming, not what pitch he thought might be coming. The results speak for themselves. 

[TwinsDr2021]

Just stay healthy and Lewis will be more than fine. 3B in the American league is a tough all star spot to grab (Henderson, Ramirez, Bregman, Chapman and Devers) but if healthy he should be in that conversation.

[terrydactyls]

I think Lewis needs to work on showing more enthusiasm on the field, especially running the bases after a home run.  😇

[djvang]

Stay healthy. Keep your ego in check. Stay healthy. Stay healthy.

[JD-TWINS]

20 hours ago, jimmyc said:

Cody check your math.  Even though they are both the dreaded 'small sample size' you refer to his strikeout and walk totals before and after his IL time, and refer to a minor improvement.  K/BB before 9.3.  K/BB after 1.5.  More than a minor improvement.  K% drop from 28% to 19%.  BB% up from 3% to 12%.   The after numbers are much closer to his career MiLB numbers, as his MiLB K/BB is 2.2.

Agreed. His 32 game stint with 27 K’s & 18 walks is really good……much better!

[Doctor Gast]

On 10/31/2023 at 9:09 PM, ashbury said:

A good way to avoid the sophomore jinx is to win Rookie of the Year instead.

Does Royce Lewis still qualifies for Rookie of the year, next year? That'd be great! If so, IMO he should definitely win it. I don't see Lewis suffer from sophmore jinx. 3B is not his position but he did a fine job there. When Brook Lee is ready, Lewis should move over to 2B

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Does Royce Lewis still qualifies for Rookie of the year, next year? That'd be great! If so, IMO he should definitely win it. I don't see Lewis suffer from sophmore jinx. 3B is not his position but he did a fine job there. When Brook Lee is ready, Lewis should move over to 2B

b-r.com lists his rookie status as still intact.  I haven't double checked their math.  I misspoke, and winning RoY would only delay a sophomore jinx, not avoid it.🙂

 

[nicksaviking]

I think the best omen that Lewis can avoid a Sophomore Slump is that he's come back from injury three times now in his short MLB career, and hit the ground running each time. If he can twice come back from 12 months off due to ACL injuries with no rust, a four month offseason and month of spring training should be a breeze.

[Riverbrian]

Statistical improvement would be incredible considering his OPS was .921... Incredible but not impossible. 

Health is the improvement I hope for.

I believe if he is Healthy... he is not going to do any sophomore slumping of significance. 

Taking that .921 OPS from 239 PA's to 600 PA's would be huge for our squad. That would pace out to around 40 HR's 20 SB's.

That's a superstar.     

 

[The Mad King]

Staying healthy is still my number one concern.