Sonny Gray Might Have Been Front Offices’ Greatest Work

[Ted Schwerzler]

After pitching to the level of a team MVP this season for the Minnesota Twins, Sonny Gray heads to free agency. It seems that both he and the organization have interest in working together again, but regardless if he comes back, the front office navigated his acquisition flawlessly.

 

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

There is no denying that the 2021 Minnesota Twins left plenty to be desired. Coming out of the Covid-shortened season, Rocco Baldelli’s club finished last in the AL Central and went through a whopping 35 pitchers on the year. A ridiculous sixteen players made starts for Minnesota, and Matt Shoemaker was allowed to pitch over 60 innings with an ERA north of 8.00.

Addressing the need for help, Minnesota sent their recent first round pick Chase Petty to the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for Sonny Gray. It was a tough pill to swallow as Petty was a prep arm with a triple-digit fastball, but understanding the volatility for that type of arm, the Twins got a guaranteed asset.

Gray had struggled with the New York Yankees, but he was only a couple of years removed from an all-star appearance and Cy Young votes with the Reds. He hadn’t throw 200 innings since 2015, and isn’t exactly a bulldog, but it’s always been clear that he’s a very good talent when on.

Although the Twins fell apart down the stretch last season, Gray was certainly not to blame. He posted a 3.08 ERA in his first year with Minnesota, and though bad pitching had Twins starters making short starts, Gray was among the best of the bunch. Then came 2023.

Noting in spring training that he intended to go deeper in games, Baldelli was going to need better performances from Gray and the rotation. Minnesota transformed the rotation to among the best in baseball, and Gray was front-and-center for the effort. His 2.79 ERA trailed only Gerrit Cole in the American League, and he will again get Cy Young votes. He became an all-star again, and his 184 innings was the most he has thrown since 2015.

Thanks to his quality pitching, Gray will be among the most coveted arms in what is otherwise a weaker free agent pitching class. Shohei Ohtani isn’t able to throw in 2024, and multiple contending teams will be in on the 34-year-old Gray to help them prop up a postseason run. It would be unwise to go all in on an aging talent, but there is certainly a number of years and dollars that make sense for Minnesota or someone else to find a middle ground.

By acquiring Gray as they did, and believing in the performance he would provide, Minnesota now stands to recoup the value of the initial deal at the very least. Handing Gray a qualifying offer means that any team signing him will forfeit a draft pick, and Minnesota will be awarded a pick near the top of the draft. A compensatory selection won’t be a direct one-for-one where Petty was taken, but it certainly won’t be far off.

The Reds weren’t in a place to utilize Gray to his fullest capabilities when they dealt him, and acquired a future asset they believed in. Minnesota needed help immediately and could sacrifice what was something of an uncertain prospect, but the blueprint played out beautifully. Ending up with a draft pick won’t replace Gray in the rotation for 2024, but you couldn’t have asked for a better cycle of life from one deal.

Not all trades work out, and plenty of them have gone sideways for this front office, but there are few ways this outcome could have presented itself better. For that, Falvey and Minnesota have to be thrilled with the results.

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[Mike Sixel]

Agreed. The percent of HS pitchers that are even decent is tiny. Truly infinitesimal. Great trade. 

[IaBeanCounter]

Was Petty injured, he only pitched 68 innings over 18 starts?  If Gray rejects the QO and signs a contract for over $50M, the Twins would receive a draft pick after the 1st round, in the 30s as far as draft picks.  Petty was the 26th pick so the comp pick is pretty close to Petty's slot.

When Petty pitched he did very well with a 1.72 ERA in A+ and AA.  It looks like a trade that worked out for both teams.

[Parfigliano]

Gray pitched a 2.79 ERA over 184 innings and 183 Ks.  If he declines the qualifying offer TC gets a high draft choice.

Grading front office moves I'd say acquiring him ranks A++.

[bloomwcjkl]

8 wins. If that was 18 or 21 I'd be more on board. The offense didn't score runs for Sonny, but but.

He is more likely due for Tommy John.

I say we try to sign someone for 2-3 years in the 25-26 age range.

[Mike Sixel]

27 minutes ago, bloomwcjkl said:

8 wins. If that was 18 or 21 I'd be more on board. The offense didn't score runs for Sonny, but but.

He is more likely due for Tommy John.

I say we try to sign someone for 2-3 years in the 25-26 age range.

what 25 year old FA is there? None, that's who. And, pitcher wins? Really? Yikes.

[jmlease1]

45 minutes ago, bloomwcjkl said:

8 wins. If that was 18 or 21 I'd be more on board. The offense didn't score runs for Sonny, but but.

He is more likely due for Tommy John.

I say we try to sign someone for 2-3 years in the 25-26 age range.

Pitcher wins don't tell you very much about how good of a starter they actually were.

Are you suggesting Sonny Gray is likely for TJ? Why? His injury issues over the years haven't shown elbow problems.

Good luck signing anyone of Gray's caliber that is 25-26 for a 2-3 year contract!

[Sjoski]

Gray has talked about retiring.....we'll see. He's had a good career. Maybe he comes back in 2024, here or elsewhere. Probably bugs him he closed the year with a clunker. 

 

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Its leaving the Twins in a win/win situation regarding Gray.  If you are able to sign Gray to a reasonable contract,  great,  makes the trade of Petty even more worth it on the Twins side.  With Paddack you would have 3 really strong arms with Ryan and Ober pulling up the back end of the starting rotation.  If Paddack improves and Gray regresses slightly but Lopez performs like a #1 this is a pitching staff that has the ability to help a team win it all.  

However if the Twins are unable or unwilling to come to a deal they get a compensatory pick.  Now the question is can they find someone else on the free agent market or will they have to do another trade.  Who knows, they may just run with what they have to start the year.  

 

[LastOnePicked]

Agreed. Targeting Gray from the Reds was a sharp move that paid off. I would love to see a young AAA hurler knocking on the door as his replacement, but even if that doesn't happen, the move for Gray propped open that contention window and dovetailed perfectly with the trade for Lopez.

[Brandon]

I think it’s crazy how much of a better trade this one was over the Mahle trade.

[The Mad King]

Nice take, Ted

[Linus]

Early return is great. But like most trades you can’t really grade until we see what Petty does. If he ends up being a front line starter with 6 years control then I’m not so sure. 

[Brandon]

55 minutes ago, Linus said:

Early return is great. But like most trades you can’t really grade until we see what Petty does. If he ends up being a front line starter with 6 years control then I’m not so sure. 

We got a playoff series win with Gray.  At best Cindy can make this win win for their side but we got best case scenario on our side.

[HerbieFan]

Now....about that Mahle trade😑

[LewFordLives]

9 hours ago, HerbieFan said:

Now....about that Mahle trade😑

I didn't think the Mahle trade was bad at the time. It would have been a good trade.....if he had actually pitched for the Twins. The big question is whether the front office should have been more cautious given his recent injury history. I'm not a medical expert so I can't opine on whether they missed or ignored any red flags.

[Trov]

19 hours ago, IaBeanCounter said:

Was Petty injured, he only pitched 68 innings over 18 starts?  If Gray rejects the QO and signs a contract for over $50M, the Twins would receive a draft pick after the 1st round, in the 30s as far as draft picks.  Petty was the 26th pick so the comp pick is pretty close to Petty's slot.

When Petty pitched he did very well with a 1.72 ERA in A+ and AA.  It looks like a trade that worked out for both teams.

He only threw 8 innings in AA really that was High A numbers. He averaged under 4 innings a start.  My guess they are working him along slowly based on age, and velo TJ is not unlikely in his future if they over work him. His ERA was good, but his WHIP was above his career average.  In high A he gave up 16 runs 13 earned, and in AA he gave up 2 runs but 0 earned.  So could have been bad defense, but that is in part why ERA not best way to tell how a guy did.  I mean he gets 2 outs, then an error extends the inning, every thing after is unearned runs.  If the pitcher gives up hard hits over the next 10 batters, his ERA is not affect.  However, if the first batter reaches on error, then pitcher gets 2 outs, and then gives up 10 hard hits, the ERA skyrockets.  Really, they had a similar outing, but because when the error happened affects the ERA. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I was very upset when the Twins traded Petty for Gray. I was wrong. The FO deserves praise for this trade. 

[jmlease1]

21 hours ago, IaBeanCounter said:

Was Petty injured, he only pitched 68 innings over 18 starts?  If Gray rejects the QO and signs a contract for over $50M, the Twins would receive a draft pick after the 1st round, in the 30s as far as draft picks.  Petty was the 26th pick so the comp pick is pretty close to Petty's slot.

When Petty pitched he did very well with a 1.72 ERA in A+ and AA.  It looks like a trade that worked out for both teams.

The fact that Petty reached AA at age 20 is impressive development. 18 starts is close to a full season's worth (20-22 is a full mix for a guy who doesn't miss time for injury or being skipped out of caution) His lack of innings is worrisome much in the same way some of us are concerned about Marco Raya for the Twins.

Petty was always talented, which is why the Twins drafted him in the first place, but he's still another 2 years away from entering an MLB rotation for more than a cup of coffee (it seems likely that he'll spend next season in AA and 2025 in AAA pushing for an chance in MLB, if he stays healthy and doesn't have any developmental bumps). What's especially interesting about Petty is how few HRs he's given up. If he can maintain a HR/9 rate under 1, then I'll be very impressed. (he gave up zero dingers in 2023! I'm sure that's a bit of a fluke, but so far he's been terrific at keeping the ball in the park. It will be interesting to see if he can continue that as his innings increase)

Gray fit the Twins window better and was more of a sure thing. The Reds were in rebuild mode and could afford to wait and absorb the risk. The fact that the QO was an opportunity for the Twins makes this a big win on the trade regardless of what Petty does because of the additional value it brings in from sources outside of the Reds. Clever way to make a win-now move while still getting future investment.

[Brandon]

I guess we could look at it as a mega trade:  Legumia, Steer, CES, Hajjar, Petty for Gray, Mahle, and Farmer. 
Wow even as a total and with winning the Farmer and Gray trades the Mahle trade results were so bad that the three trades combined still favor Cincinnati.  

[old nurse]

21 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

what 25 year old FA is there? None, that's who. And, pitcher wins? Really? Yikes.

 

20 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Pitcher wins don't tell you very much about how good of a starter they actually were.

Are you suggesting Sonny Gray is likely for TJ? Why? His injury issues over the years haven't shown elbow problems.

Good luck signing anyone of Gray's caliber that is 25-26 for a 2-3 year contract!

There is a Japanese pitcher about that age entering the market. Good luck signing him

[IaBeanCounter]

2 hours ago, Brandon said:

I guess we could look at it as a mega trade:  Legumia, Steer, CES, Hajjar, Petty for Gray, Mahle, and Farmer. 
Wow even as a total and with winning the Farmer and Gray trades the Mahle trade results were so bad that the three trades combined still favor Cincinnati.  

IMO looking at it as a mega trade makes it more it the Twins favor.  

1. The Twins made the postseason with Gray.  I believe Cincinnati would made the postseason if Gray were pitching for them.
2. Farmer provided quality defense (2 OAA) and came up with a few clutch hits.
3. Castro (2 OAA) and Solano (-4 OAA) probably would not be on the Twins roster had they retained Steer (-17 OAA) & CES (0 OAA).    Steer and CES had better offensive years, but I'm not sure that makes up for the net OAA of -15.  Also I wonder what Steer and CES would have done with the Twins batting philosophy,  

 It would have nice if Mahle hadn't broken down, but the Twins went to the postseason with Gray, Farmer, Castro & Solano.  I believe that the FO looked at Steer and CES not having a clear path to the MLB with the Twins.  With Kirilloff's injuries, it would be nice to have Steer or CES,  but who knows Lee may be manning 1st next year.

 

[Ted Schwerzler]

On 10/17/2023 at 2:18 PM, bloomwcjkl said:

8 wins. If that was 18 or 21 I'd be more on board. The offense didn't score runs for Sonny, but but.

"But but" is exactly why pitcher wins are irrelevant.

[Ted Schwerzler]

20 hours ago, Linus said:

Early return is great. But like most trades you can’t really grade until we see what Petty does. If he ends up being a front line starter with 6 years control then I’m not so sure. 

Except that they, at worst, get another chance to make a pick similar to Petty which is the point.

[Linus]

8 minutes ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

Except that they, at worst, get another chance to make a pick similar to Petty which is the point.

Understood. The pick is different than having Petty. Who knows maybe the pick ends up being better than Petty or Petty could be great for years and the pick is a bust. That was my original point which is it’s been great for the Twins but the final tally has yet to be made. 

[Mike Sixel]

High school pitchers almost never work. It was a good trade for the Twins regardless of what Petty becomes, though. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Gray was great. I have no strong opinion on the trade to share, except that the model the Twins are using to acquire pitching is unsustainable, in my opinion.

The Twins broke camp in 2023 with a starting rotation acquired wholly through trades. Would you rather have Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Mahle and Maeda, or would you rather have Graterol, Petty, Steer, CES, Hajjar, and Arraez? I think with the Lopez extension, and as long as he stays healthy, they come out ahead on that grand bargain. However, the presence of a pitching pipeline would have allowed for the Twins to keep some of those prospects and fill one more of those rotation pieces in-house.

Sonny Gray was great and the Twins advanced to the division round once in his two years, and Chase Petty would be the Twins 3rd rated prospect behind Jenkins and Lee heading into 2024. Was that a bargain you would have made two years ago? 

[Doctor Gast]

On 10/17/2023 at 7:06 PM, Brandon said:

I think it’s crazy how much of a better trade this one was over the Mahle trade.

I prefer off-season trades over dead-line trades. Pitchers that teams want to shop, try to showcase them and then push them to the point where their arms are ready to fall off. Therefore peddling damaged goods.

[Brandon]

11 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Gray was great. I have no strong opinion on the trade to share, except that the model the Twins are using to acquire pitching is unsustainable, in my opinion.

The Twins broke camp in 2023 with a starting rotation acquired wholly through trades. Would you rather have Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Mahle and Maeda, or would you rather have Graterol, Petty, Steer, CES, Hajjar, and Arraez? I think with the Lopez extension, and as long as he stays healthy, they come out ahead on that grand bargain. However, the presence of a pitching pipeline would have allowed for the Twins to keep some of those prospects and fill one more of those rotation pieces in-house.

Sonny Gray was great and the Twins advanced to the division round once in his two years, and Chase Petty would be the Twins 3rd rated prospect behind Jenkins and Lee heading into 2024. Was that a bargain you would have made two years ago? 

Farmer would be the top rated SS if he was a free agent.  There are many teams he would be their starter.  
polanco would be the top 2B and one of the top position players available too.  Same with Kepler.  We have players we could trade for pitching this offseason because of unusual circumstances.  But you’re right we need to develop our own starting pitching eventually.

I would rather have a top rated pitching staff than those prospects and Arraez.and Arraez is one of my favorite players.

I would make that Gray trade again in a heartbeat.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

23 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

The fact that Petty reached AA at age 20 is impressive development. 18 starts is close to a full season's worth (20-22 is a full mix for a guy who doesn't miss time for injury or being skipped out of caution) His lack of innings is worrisome much in the same way some of us are concerned about Marco Raya for the Twins.

 

Petty was having arm soreness to start the year.  I think the diagnosis was generally the pre diagnosis of an injured UCL.  Now He came back and the arm was healthy.  With any young arm the concern is injury,  yes he looks good for a 20 year old.  His fastball (sinker) has dialed back quite a bit averaging 91 to 95 and tops at 97,   The curveball is his best pitch and has the possibility of being a plus pitch.  The change up is still a work in progress.  He had a cup of coffee in AA, I wouldn't consider the 2 starts to be evidence of anything yet.  Honestly I know he is rising up the Reds board a bit,  but I just don't see a dominant top line starter unless the velocity picks back up.  That is close to Joe Ryan territory (fyi Joe had a 1.42 ERA in A+ ball compared to Petty's 1.95 ERA this year).  Its not to say he can't be a very good or effective starter for the Reds but the odds of him becoming a front line starter are slimmer now with the decrease in velocity.   Sonny in 2 years has given us 7.8 WAR.  3 years of Joe Ryan has netted us 3.8.  Basically Petty has to be a better than Joe Ryan throughout 6 years to make it an even trade,  let alone trying to calculate the time value and what will occur with Sonny.    

The Twins don't look back at all from this trade.  as stated earlier its a win/win.  You got 2 years of elite pitching.  You then have the ability to potentially resign him to a decent deal or receive a compensatory pick and possibly pick up another high level pitching prospect.