Pulling Joe Ryan Was the Correct Decision

[Cody Schoenmann]

The Twins decision to pull Joe Ryan after facing just eight Astros hitters has sparked some level of controversy among Twins fans. Here is why it was the correct decision.

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett - USA TODAY Sports

As the game of baseball and those who consume the game on a day-to-day basis continue to progress, the symbiotic relationship between the two appears to be heading toward a collective understanding: It is okay to pull pitchers when they are struggling instead of keeping them in for the sake of keeping them in. 

Like most efforts of progression, there are those stuck in what the status quo once was unwilling to open their minds, usually due to a stubborn belief system or the desire to combat change, typically induced by fear of the future and its unknown nature.

Regardless, we find ourselves in a situation where Twins manager Rocco Baldelli and the organization still get critiqued for their tendency to have a "quick hook." Despite this outdated narrative continuing to run rampant, the Twins ranked fourth in Major League Baseball for innings pitched for starters, with 895 out of 1451 1/3 (62%) innings pitched by Twins pitchers thrown by starting pitchers. 

False narratives like the one surrounding Baldelli, the Twins, and the nature of "quick hooks" will continue as long as people elect to neglect the reality of situations. Often, the neglect is intentional. 

So, when the Twins pulled starting pitcher Joe Ryan after pitching two innings and facing just eight Houston Astros batters, numerous fans were unsurprisingly hypercritical of the situation and pounced on the chance to fault Baldelli and his "quick hook."

Ryan began his Game 4 start against the defending World Series champion Houston Astros by getting second baseman Jose Altuve to ground to Twins' shortstop Carlos Correa on one pitch, third baseman Alex Bregman to fly out to centerfielder Michael A. Taylor, and the ever-daunting left fielder Yordan Alvarez to fly out to left fielder Willi Castro. 

Ryan looked effective, and there was no reason to doubt he would return for the second inning to face the Astros four, five, and six hitters. The Twins used three of their middle-to-high leverage relievers in Emilio Pagán, Kenta Maeda, and Griffin Jax the game before, and with Ryan mowing through the first three hitters, there was no reason not to attempt to get as much quality usage out of Ryan as possible.

Twins third baseman Royce Lewis hit a solo home run in the bottom of the first, and the crowd at Target Field lit up. Everything was looking up for the Twins in the do-or-die Game 4, and Ryan came back out the bottom of the second holding a 1-0 lead.

Ryan got Astros star right fielder Kyle Tucker to strike out, and Target Field exploded. Ryan was dealing, and many started wondering if this was the beginning of another Pablo López-esque style start that could help the Twins survive Game 4 and present them the favorable opportunity of facing the Astros in Houston with López on the mound for a win-or-go-home Game 5.

Then, Astros left fielder Michael Brantley hit a 399-foot home run to deep right-center field, and the game was tied 1-1. Ryan, who sported a 20.5% home run to fly ball ratio (HR/FB) since the All-Star Break, gave up yet another home run, and all the momentum the Twins had, if you believe in such a thing, had dissipated.

Brantley's home run was followed by a relatively innocent infield single by Astros centerfielder Chas McCormick, and many began to worry if Ryan, like he did many times after straining his left groin while warming up to face the Atlanta Braves on June 27, was going to implode.

Luckily, McCormick's infield single was followed by Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena ground into a fielder's choice to his predecessor Correa, and the Twins were able to get by unscathed and remained tied 1-1 going into the bottom of the second. 

Shortly after Ryan and the Twins entered the dugout, Twins reporters noted that reliever Brock Stewart was warming up in the bullpen. Soon after this was announced, FOX Sports cameras spotted Baldelli shaking Ryan's hand in the dugout, all but confirming his departure from the tied game.  

Stewart entered the game for the Twins at the top of the third inning, and Ryan's night was officially done after just 26 pitches.

Admittedly, getting taken out of the game after throwing just 26 pitches and giving up one run would be a peculiar move to make by a manager in a traditional start. Emphasis on "traditional." Game 4 of the ALDS, where your team is down 1-2 in a five-game series, is in no way a traditional start. It would have been negligent for Baldelli and the Twins to treat it like one. 

López, Gray, and Ober were all unavailable, as they had all made a start or pitched in the previous four days, so the Twins' only options were to either start Ryan or have a pure bullpen game where Maeda, Chris Paddack, or Louie Varland could have started.

The Twins elected to start Ryan and shift to a bullpen game after just two innings, so it was functionally the same thing.

As noted earlier, Ryan has struggled since straining his left groin before his start against the Atlanta Braves on June 27. Going into the playoffs, I believed that Ryan had solidified himself as the Twins' third starting pitcher, but I was still cautious about his ability to perform at the level he had been before June 27.

To add context, here are Ryan's numbers since returning from the 15-day IL on August 26:

• 4.79 ERA, 4.13 FIP, 3.57 xFIP, .345 BABIP, 1.77 HR/9, 16.3% HR/FB, 32.3% GB%, 75.3% LOB%, 149 TBF, 35 2/3 IP, 37 hits allowed, 19 earned runs allowed, seven home runs given up, nine walks, and 45 strikeouts.

None of these statistics are particularly inspiring, but what stands out the most is Ryan's 1.77 HR/9 and 16.3% HR/FB. When Ryan was pitching injured from June 27 to July 31, he had a 4.13 HR/9 and 31% HR/FB, so he significantly improved his performance during the seven-game stretch from August 26-September 29, but he was underperforming nonetheless.

To put Ryan's post-15-day IL stint performance into perspective, Fangraph deems any HR/FB of 13% or higher as "Awful," and Ryan had an HR/FB of 16.3%. So, despite the vast improvement, Ryan still gave up an awfully high amount of home runs.  

After Ryan gave up yet another home run to the Houston Astros before getting through their lineup just once, it is no surprise Baldelli and the Twins elected to take him out of the game after the conclusion of the second inning.

Reliever Caleb Thielbar eventually gave up a two-run home run to Astros first baseman Jose Abreu in the top of the fourth, propelling the Astros to a 3-1 lead. The Astros held their lead, and the Twins eventually lost 3-2 and were eliminated from playoff contention, ending what was the Twins' best overall season since 2002. 

Though the Twins ended up losing and getting eliminated from playoff contention, their bullpen medley concocted of Stewart, Thielbar, Paddack, Jax, and Jhoan Duran gave up only two runs through seven innings pitched in a stellar performance. 

The Twins electing to go with what was functionally a bullpen game in Game 4 isn't what led to their demise. Instead, it was the Twins' four through nine hitters that went a combined 0-19 that let them down in the end. 

Pulling the home-run-prone Ryan was the correct decision for Baldelli and the Twins, and the bullpen's stellar performance is evidence.

What do you think of the Twins pulling Ryan after the second inning? Was it the correct decision? Comment below.

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[Parfigliano]

I think it was planned going into the game that Ryan would get 2 innings and then he was done.  Didnt matter what he did.  8 batters and 1 run or 6 up and 6 down he was getting 2 innings.  I dont understand the reasoning.  I think it was a dumb plan.

[FlyingFinn]

If you told me that the Twins would give up 3 runs in game #4 before it started, I would say we were going to win facing a pitcher with an ERA around 5.00 for the year. The only reason it appears "to not have worked out" is because we didn't score 4 runs. The hitters have to score 4+ runs in this game and Lopez then would have had to go out and shut down the Astros in game #5.

[ashbury]

Rocco stated after the game that they would have considered leaving Ryan in a bit longer if results had warranted it, and I'll take him at his word, that maybe another inning could have been possible.

League-wide most pitchers do worse the second time through the order than the first, and Ryan's stats bear that out a little more strongly than average. So that's an argument for a short leash.

If I want to second-guess, I have to ask which reliever would have not appeared, had Ryan soaked up the third inning successfully. (Or maybe Duran pitches just one inning.)  With Thielbar's work the only place to second-guess the outcome, and with him being the only lefty, facing a lineup where some left-handed batters are menaces, I can't convince myself that the decisive home run would not have happened.  The only way to have it not happen might be to bring Thielbar into the middle of an inning and let him register the third out against a lefty - the way he was used, by rule he had to face three batters, which included righty Abreu.

"Correct" decision?  I don't think that exists.  But the decision is defensible, and in light of results I can't criticize.  We lack knowledge of what would have occurred in a third inning by Ryan, facing the #9 batter and then the top of the lineup again.  That kind of unknown always makes the discussion fun and pointless at the same time.

[ToddlerHarmon]

I could go either way. If I heard from the Twins that something about Ryan's stuff or approach looked unsustainable, I'd be more convinced that this was the right move.

Even so, if Joe Ryan had pitched a six innings and given up 3 runs, that would have been about the best we could have expected going in. So it's hard to call this a mistake.

There's a nagging thought in my head that some of these playoff moves were about the future more than this year. This move, along with playing Jeffers every game, and limiting Ober as well, could be seen as attempts to maximize confidence and health for key young players. If true, I'm not sure that is a right-headed approach

[Beast]

I agree.  I thought Baldelli was actually decent in the playoffs.

Not his fault Gray was leaving pitches out over the plate far too often and his “sweeper” was awful.

Not his fault the offense were absolutely, embarrassingly, putrid in games 1, 3, and 4….and for the 2 game Blue Jays series for that matter.

I believe that had Ryan stayed in that game, he would’ve eventually gotten lit up.  A pitcher that only throws 92 mph fastballs up in the zone is a poor matchup against that team (against any team, really).  Believing Ryan was some top of the rotation starter was a premature, IMO.  He just doesn’t have the dominant stuff required.  The “water polo” arm angle thing can only get him by for so long.

Decent pitcher.  Just like Ober, fine for the back end of the rotation during the regular season.  Not someone you can rely on in a playoff series.  Especially when your team can’t hit the baseball.  Baldelli and the FO was smart enough to see that.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

19 minutes ago, ToddlerHarmon said:

Even so, if Joe Ryan had pitched a six innings and given up 3 runs, that would have been about the best we could have expected going in. So it's hard to call this a mistake.

Exactly this.  From the sounds of it, the two innings and bullpen situation was the plan, and it most certainly worked.  Under the best of circumstances, it wasn't that likely that Ryan wasn't going to give up additional runs, and the Astros lineup is hardly the best of circumstances for a pitcher. 

I've also read that "Well, that's it, now Ryan wants out too!"  That is borderline idiocy.  He's a young pitcher who is very promising but is a long way from an ace. He (and all other players) are going to do what they are asked.  They know it's the playoffs. Would Ryan have liked to pitch longer?  I'm sure he would have, and I would be disappointed if he was hoping to be removed.  I'm sure he's already over it.  He'll be fine.  He'll be back for more. Let's just hope he keeps on developing so that he resembles Pablo Lopez a bit more. 

[Cody Schoenmann]

50 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Rocco stated after the game that they would have considered leaving Ryan in a bit longer if results had warranted it, and I'll take him at his word, that maybe another inning could have been possible.

League-wide most pitchers do worse the second time through the order than the first, and Ryan's stats bear that out a little more strongly than average. So that's an argument for a short leash.

If I want to second-guess, I have to ask which reliever would have not appeared, had Ryan soaked up the third inning successfully. (Or maybe Duran pitches just one inning.)  With Thielbar's work the only place to second-guess the outcome, and with him being the only lefty, facing a lineup where some left-handed batters are menaces, I can't convince myself that the decisive home run would not have happened.  The only way to have it not happen might be to bring Thielbar into the middle of an inning and let him register the third out against a lefty - the way he was used, by rule he had to face three batters, which included righty Abreu.

"Correct" decision?  I don't think that exists.  But the decision is defensible, and in light of results I can't criticize.  We lack knowledge of what would have occurred in a third inning by Ryan, facing the #9 batter and then the top of the lineup again.  That kind of unknown always makes the discussion fun and pointless at the same time.

I agree with your perspective, Out of five relievers who pitched after Ryan left only one gave up a run(s) and it was Thielbar, who happens to be one of their best relievers. Thielbar simply didn't perform like he usually does in Game 4, and although that's unfortunate it's not like using Thielbar against the lefty dominant portion of the Astros lineup is a bad idea. The process was sound, it just didn't work out for one reliever out of five. The Twins pitching isn't what failed them in Game 4, and it is a near-guarantee Ryan would have given up more than just the one run he gave up if they had left him in longer. 

Edited October 14, 2023 by Cody Schoenmann

[Cody Schoenmann]

7 minutes ago, Beast said:

I agree.  I thought Baldelli was actually decent in the playoffs.

Not his fault Gray was leaving pitches out over the plate far too often and his “sweeper” was awful.

Not his fault the offense were absolutely, embarrassingly, putrid in games 1, 3, and 4….and for the 2 game Blue Jays series for that matter.

I believe that had Ryan stayed in that game, he would’ve eventually gotten lit up.  A pitcher that only throws 92 mph fastballs up in the zone is a poor matchup against that team (against any team, really).  Believing Ryan was some top of the rotation starter was a premature, IMO.  He just doesn’t have the dominant stuff required.  The “water polo” arm angle thing can only get him by for so long.

Decent pitcher.  Just like Ober, fine for the back end of the rotation during the regular season.  Not someone you can rely on in a playoff series.  Especially when your team can’t hit the baseball.  Baldelli and the FO was smart enough to see that.

Baldelli managed really well during the Wild Card Series and ALDS imo. From platooning to pitching decisions, I don't really have a gripe with any decision he made. Maybe they should have opted to bench or take Kirilloff off the roster with an injury designation sooner, but that's about it. No worthwhile manager would have kept Ryan in to face a team's lineup the second time through after already giving up a HR in an elimination game.

[Cody Schoenmann]

30 minutes ago, ToddlerHarmon said:

I could go either way. If I heard from the Twins that something about Ryan's stuff or approach looked unsustainable, I'd be more convinced that this was the right move.

Even so, if Joe Ryan had pitched a six innings and given up 3 runs, that would have been about the best we could have expected going in. So it's hard to call this a mistake.

There's a nagging thought in my head that some of these playoff moves were about the future more than this year. This move, along with playing Jeffers every game, and limiting Ober as well, could be seen as attempts to maximize confidence and health for key young players. If true, I'm not sure that is a right-headed approach

After Ryan gave up the home run, I feel like Twins fans and decision-makers could tell it would have gone how most of his starts went after coming off the 15-day IL toward the end of the season. It likely wouldn't have been a complete disaster, but there is a good chance the Astros would have scored more than the 3 runs they did if Ryan stayed in past the second. 

[Cody Schoenmann]

50 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

If you told me that the Twins would give up 3 runs in game #4 before it started, I would say we were going to win facing a pitcher with an ERA around 5.00 for the year. The only reason it appears "to not have worked out" is because we didn't score 4 runs. The hitters have to score 4+ runs in this game and Lopez then would have had to go out and shut down the Astros in game #5.

I agree. As I noted in the article, the Twins 4-9 hitters is what failed them in Game 4. 

[Cody Schoenmann]

12 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Exactly this.  From the sounds of it, the two innings and bullpen situation was the plan, and it most certainly worked.  Under the best of circumstances, it wasn't that likely that Ryan wasn't going to give up additional runs, and the Astros lineup is hardly the best of circumstances for a pitcher. 

I've also read that "Well, that's it, now Ryan wants out too!"  That is borderline idiocy.  He's a young pitcher who is very promising but is a long way from an ace. He (and all other players) are going to do what they are asked.  They know it's the playoffs. Would Ryan have liked to pitch longer?  I'm sure he would have, and I would be disappointed if he was hoping to be removed.  I'm sure he's already over it.  He'll be fine.  He'll be back for more. Let's just hope he keeps on developing so that he resembles Pablo Lopez a bit more. 

I've never understood people who think that when a pitcher gets pulled earlier than they think is appropriate, that pitcher is now angry enough to the point where they want to uproot their lives and leave an organization. This was the case with how a lot of people viewed Sonny Gray and Rocco's relationship during the 2022 and 2023 season too. A lot of people wanted Gray to hate Rocco and his "quick hooks" to the point where they created a reality that simply didn't exist. Sonny never hated Rocco, and it is highly unlikely Ryan is mad at the Twins as I am very confident that the Twins communicated the plan with Ryan before the game. 

[h2oface]

Doesn’t matter how many words one uses to defend the Ryan decision - we will never know the answer. What we do know is it was the wrong decision to use Theilbar. No doubt. 😇

[rv78]

Another article to try to make Rocco look good. If pulling Ryan early because of his penchant to give up HR and the fear that the Astros would score too many runs against him, then why use Thielbar? His HR rate is worse than Joe Ryans. I can't justify the praise for one move and then not being critical of the other. Rocco isn't as good as you think he is.

 

[Cody Schoenmann]

31 minutes ago, h2oface said:

Doesn’t matter how many words one uses to defend the Ryan decision - we will never know the answer. What we do know is it was the wrong decision to use Theilbar. No doubt. 😇

why didn't the tralfamadorians warn us that Thielbar was going to give up a HR? lol

[Rod Carews Birthday]

28 minutes ago, h2oface said:

Doesn’t matter how many words one uses to defend the Ryan decision - we will never know the answer. What we do know is it was the wrong decision to use Theilbar. No doubt. 😇

You are assuming that there was a series of pitchers that would have given up no more runs after Ryan came out. No matter how you look at it, giving up three total runs is a solid performance and if the offense scored some runs would have resulted in a win.  We would take that nine times out of ten.  

[JAWS33]

I don't have a problem with the decision in this particular game given that it was an elimination game.   I just don't like the overall process of making a plan before the game and sticking to it no matter how the game plays out.  A manager should adapt his plan based on how the players are playing.  I don't think the Twins do that.  

[jkcarew]

Maybe. But using Theilbar in the 4th was the wrong move, IMO. I’m not using my 5th (6th?) best option in an elimination game, with a day off to follow…no matter what arm he throws with. Exception being an Alvarez AB with 2-out. In that situation the risk/reward is probably worth it, since he is not required to start the next inning. If one of our right-handers comes on there and ‘only’ gives up a HR to Alvarez leading off, we’re better off. IMO Rocco has to manage the game in that spot believing that a solo HR by Alvarez in the 4th inning of a tie game isn’t going to beat you…and simply pitch one of his better arms. Doesn’t guarantee better results, but it’s a way better approach, IMO.

The lack of offense is what doomed us, though…obviously.

[BH67]

"Like most efforts of progression, there are those stuck in what the status quo once was unwilling to open their minds, usually due to a stubborn belief system or the desire to combat change, typically induced by fear of the future and its unknown nature."

And then I stopped reading, Cody. In my experience, those who consign differing views to the "wrong side of history" before stating the premise behind this viewpoint aren't very confident in the premise themselves.

 

[glunn]

The announcers talked about this before the game started. I think that it was a mistake for Rocco to announce his plan so that the Astros could prepare for it.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

2 hours ago, BH67 said:

And then I stopped reading, Cody. In my experience, those who consign differing views to the "wrong side of history" before stating the premise behind this viewpoint aren't very confident in the premise themselves.

 

And those who stop reading prematurely are not very confident in their position either.  Hate to have someone question your views but. . .

[Brandon]

I think it's a minor quibble, but Ryan probably could have gone another inning.  but also, I am surprised Meada didn't follow him and go 2-3 innings.  we could have been 5-6 innings into the game before going to Brock.  I think that would be the preferred path.  

[BH67]

19 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

And those who stop reading prematurely are not very confident in their position either.  Hate to have someone question your views but. . .

I wouldn't have started reading if I felt that way. I love being challenged by and learning from different ideas. I don't mind being wrong or insufficiently knowledgeable about any topic worth my time, as this one is. But I do not appreciate being presumed antediluvian before the argument is presented, and nobody should.

[h2oface]

5 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

You are assuming that there was a series of pitchers that would have given up no more runs after Ryan came out. No matter how you look at it, giving up three total runs is a solid performance and if the offense scored some runs would have resulted in a win.  We would take that nine times out of ten.  

Assuming? I’m not assuming anything. Hindsight is 100% accurate. 

[Dave Borton]

Ah, I guess that I am stuck in mud 

Quote

@Cody Schoenmannsaid, "Like most efforts of progression, there are those stuck in what the status quo once was unwilling to open their minds, usually due to a stubborn belief system or the desire to combat change, typically induced by fear of the future and its unknown nature...."

Cody, have to disagree on this one. "Progression?" I think there is a virus in MLB when starters (Ryan/Berrios) get pulled in early innings. We have gone from 6.0  inn/starter to about 5.0 in 20 years .I go to see Ryan vs Berrios, not Thielbar vs Cabrera. This game is for our entertainment, not for GMs to play with their Etch a Sketches behind the curtain.

Arms are hanging from the clubhouse ceiling like nobody's business. From innings? No. From the ever increasing pressure of throwing harder and faster in those abbreviated starts.  Stop it. All these injuries are not progress. If you pull him at 5 inn and he will use up all the gas in those inn since he needn't keep anything in reserve for the 6th and beyond. This is not progress.

What to do? Limit, don't expand the roster number. Reduce the number of pitchers from 13 to 12. Adjust the DH. When a starter gets yanked, the reliever must assume the DH position in the lineup.

Progression. Guess we can have different visions of what constitutes it.

 

[HerbieFan]

I thought Rocco would let him face Maldonado, Altuve and Bregman and then Thielbar to face the lefties.  Gave up 3 runs to can't say it didn't work I guess.

[Rosterman]

Yes, it was. I would've held off on Thielbar until the 7th or 8th inning. But what happened happened. Overmanaging.

What was surprising was the Astros leaving their starter in for as long as they did.

[terrydactyls]

I enjoyed Dusty Baker's response when asked if Urquidy was on an innings count or a pitch count.  He replied that Urquidy was on a performance count.  In my opinion, that is the better approach.  Let Ryan start the 3rd inning and see how he does.  If he does well, keep him in the game.  If he doesn't, the bullpen should be prepared to step in.  Why assume Ryan is going to fail?  That is a negative approach and probably not a way for a team to have confidence in itself.

[terrydactyls]

55 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

Yes, it was. I would've held off on Thielbar until the 7th or 8th inning. But what happened happened. Overmanaging.

What was surprising was the Astros leaving their starter in for as long as they did.

See my response above.

[karcherd]

This was an example of the Twins playing not to lose instead of playing to win.  There is a difference and you can't be afraid of failure and they are.