Astros 9, Twins 1: Alvarez, Abreu and the Astros Deflate Target Field, Twins Face Elimination Wednesday

[Steven Trefz]

The Twins entered Tuesday's matchup expecting a pitcher's dual. They were half right. Cristian Javier delivered while Sonny Gray and a collection of Twins starters struggled out of the bullpen, and the Twins now must win two straight to keep their season alive. Here's how the loss came to pass.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, USA Today

Box Score
Starting Pitcher: Sonny Gray - 4 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 6 K (83 Pitches, 57 Strikes, 69%)
Home Runs: None
Bottom WPA: Gray (-.302), Royce Lewis (-.152), Ryan Jeffers (-.038)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

The Twins came into Tuesday's Game 3 riding high after bringing the home field advantage back to Target Field. With a sell-out crowd awaiting them, the former stars were shining. Johan Santana tossed the first pitch to Joe Mauer (who made an excellent scoop!), and Pablo Lopez was shocked to see his fellow Venezualan hero Santana sporting a #49 Lopez jersey. It turns out that was the highlight of the game for Twins fans, because once the actual pitching started, the Astros started teeing off.

Sunny Skies = Astros Runs
Gray had yet to surrender a run in the 2023 postseason, but by the time he left the mound in the first inning the Astros sported a 4-0 lead. The afternoon shadows had not yet crept in, and the Astros hitters were more than ready for Gray's offspeed pitches. Jose Altuve led off the game with yet another hit, this time a single. Yordan Alvarez was initially awarded with a double to right, but that was later changed to an Alex Kirilloff error on a play that loomed large early. With runners now at second and third, Kyle Tucker finally scraped across an RBI single. Gray looked to get out of the danger, but Jose Abreu is danger.

Target Field was not yet silenced, but the game now carried a sense of urgency and angst. In the bottom half of the first, Javier struck out Edouard Julien to start off the frame, but Jorge Polanco worked a walk, and Max Kepler boomed a double to put the Twins back in business with runners at second and third with only one out. Now in the shade at home plate, Royce Lewis echoed shades of Game 1's beginnings, by reaching on three straight pitches and leaving runners in scoring position. October Correa was up next, but he too could not time Javier in the shadows, and was the third strike out of the inning.

October Javier is Real
The Astros have another playoff ace, and his name is Cristian Javier. The talk entering today's game revolved around the extra two runs per game that Javier gave up this season compared to 2022. His K-rate was down from 33% to 20%. The more important statistic was his 11 innings of one-hit baseball in the 2022 postseason, and the fact that it definately carried into today's contest. Javier scattered five walks alongside the one hit, but his nine strikeouts continually came at the right time. The Twins left runners in scoring position in the first, third, and fifth against Javier, and he completed five scoreless yet again.

Alex Bregman Still Has "It"
Alex Bregman finally delivered in this series, blasting a lead off home run in the top of the fifth. After allowing another double to Alvarez, and a walk to Tucker, Gray left the game and Emilio Pagan came in with cluttered bases, and he left them cluttered to send the Twins to the bottom of the fifth down 5-0.

Kenta Maeda got the call for the sixth inning, and it was Bregman who again built the Astro lead. This time he delivered a single that plated Jeremy Pena with one out to make it 6-0.

Twins Finally Break Through, and Then Break Down Yet Again
Once Javier left the game in the top of the sixth, the Twins and their packed stadium gathered some hope for a rally. Correa led off with a single, and Matt Wallner worked a walk to put Correa into scoring position. Willi Castro was looking to give the fans something to finally cheer about, and he delivered the first run of the game with a single to right. With the fans on their feet yet again, Ryan Jeffers stepped up to the plate and promptly hit a hard ground ball to the wrong man. Pena dove, flipped and the Astros completed the 6-4-3 to strand yet another runner in scoring position.

Bailey Ober came in and pitched a scoreless eighth inning, but the ninth was not as kind to him. Alvarez launched his fourth home run of the series to up the score to 7-1. Ober walked Tucker, and then gave up a moon shot to Abreu for his second of the night. 9-1 Astros. The Twins crowd tried their best, but they started streaming out before the game ended thanks to the endless Astro assault.

Griffin Jax came in to finish off the ninth inning, and the Twins bats stayed silent to end the game. The Twins need to turn the page on today, and deliver tomorrow to send us to one more Pablo Day on Friday.

What's Next
Game 4 pits Twins RHP Joe Ryan (0-0, 0.00 ERA, 11-10, 4.51 ERA in regular season) against Astros RHP Jose Urquidy (0-0, 0.00, 3-3, 5.29 ERA in regular season). First pitch changed due to the Rangers sweeping the Orioles Tuesday night. The Twins will now have their first pitch at 6:07pm CDT at Target Field on Wednesday evening.

Postgame:

 

Bullpen Usage Chart:

	FRI	SAT	SUN	MON	TUE	TOT
Maeda	0	43	0	0	25	68
Ober	0	0	0	0	38	38
Pagán	0	14	0	0	14	28
Stewart	0	0	22	0	0	22
Paddack	0	19	0	0	0	19
Thielbar	0	18	0	0	0	18
Jax	0	0	0	0	9	9
Durán	0	0	7	0	0	7
Varland	0	0	0	0	0	0

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[USAFChief]

Maybe rethink the "crowd him inside" plan to Alvarez.

Then start considering driving in some runs on offense.

Season rests on Joe Ryan.

[Hashim]

Sonny didn’t deliver and the offense reverted back to stinking. I’m so disappointed by our lefties in this postseason. 

[wabene]

Being there I have to say Target Field was never deflated. If there ever was a game for deflation it was this one, but the fans kept the faith and kept cheering until it was over. Let's get em tomorrow!!!!!

[Aggies7]

So many goats (and not the good kind) in this game, it’s hard to know where to begin.
 

Gray didn’t have it even though he recovered a bit after the first inning. He was missing spots and getting away with bad pitches a lot. I’m surprised he was allowed to start the 5th with all the hoopla about “3rd time through the order”

AK has made a first inning fielding gaffe in 3 of the 5 games he’s started. He ole’d the big first inning grounder. I feel bad for the guy with all the injuries he’s been through, but he’s been having a brutal postseason

I think Royce’s two homers in game 1 last week were simultaneously the best and worst things to happen to him. He’s got to take better swings with guys on base. For contact not the big homer. You watch Houston’s guys…lots of HR threats but mostly they have their swings under control.

The first inning seems to be vital for our success or failure. The missed opportunity in the first inning today seemed to bring all the pressure the rest of the game. You could feel it.

Side note, if gray doesn’t re-sign here, oh boy will we need to sign or trade for a starter. Lopez and gray aren’t enough for a deep run.

 

[Aerodeliria]

Skip the platooning. Kirilloff needs a game off. As Aggies7 has mentioned he has had blunders in the field, and this time it cost the Twins dearly. That first inning looks completely different if Kirilloff makes that play. Pitching and DEFENSE win games in the playoffs. The Twins cannot afford to give up outs like that.

[CoastiePilot08]

Really disappointed in Sonny. 
 

I know he had a great season and I appreciate the WC win. 
 

But we absolutely needed a stud performance and he completely clunked it. 
 

set the offense up to press and swing away the rest of the game. 
 

massive opportunity missed. 

[Aerodeliria]

Man is that Alvarez strong. I swear the last two home runs he hit, he didn't hit the ball flush.

[Aggies7]

Urquidy throwing tomorrow for Houston 

[Beast]

We have to find somebody that can get a clutch hit other than Correa.  Everybody but Correa is now somewhere in the ballpark of 2 or 3 for about 35?  You’d think you could at least luck into a few if you’re a remotely competent hitter.

The endless strikeouts in those are spots are unacceptable.

Royce Lewis may have taken the worst at bat in league history.  He swung at three straight pitches with guys on second and third that weren’t even on the same planet as the strike zone.  That was a tone setter.

You can’t have guys line Wallner and Kirilloff on the team and be taken seriously going forward.  Holy cow, those two are a couple of the worst hitters I’ve ever seen.

The pitching wasn’t great.  Not even close.  But, you can’t get anywhere with this anemic offense.  Going forward, gotta look at getting a competent hitting coach in here, rethinking this long ball strategy that clearly isn’t working, and rotate a few new guys in here.

You lose this one in reasonable fashion, fine.  But, this was an embarrassment and this team should be ashamed of itself for this performance.  What a kick to the nuts of Twins fans who have shown up for this team in droves.  They should’ve been boo’d off the field, IMO.

Not technically over….but it’s over.  Hopefully that humiliating loss is a lesson for some of these kids going forward.

[Aggies7]

Rangers up 1-0 in the first….talk about getting white hot at the right time 

[CoastiePilot08]

3 minutes ago, Beast said:

We have to find somebody that can get a clutch hit other than Correa.  Everybody but Correa is now somewhere in the ballpark of 2 or 3 for about 35?  You’d think you could at least luck into a few if you’re a remotely competent hitter.

The endless strikeouts in those are spots are unacceptable.

Royce Lewis may have taken the worst at bat in league history.  He swung at three straight pitches with guys on second and third that weren’t even on the same planet as the strike zone.  That was a tone setter.

You can’t have guys line Wallner and Kirilloff on the team and be taken seriously going forward.  Holy cow, those two are a couple of the worst hitters I’ve ever seen.

The pitching wasn’t great.  Not even close.  But, you can’t get anywhere with this anemic offense.  Going forward, gotta look at getting a competent hitting coach in here, rethinking this long ball strategy that clearly isn’t working, and rotate a few new guys in here.

You lose this one in reasonable fashion, fine.  But, this was an embarrassment and this team should be ashamed of itself for this performance.  What a kick to the nuts of Twins fans who have shown up for this team in droves.  They should’ve been boo’d off the field, IMO.

Not technically over….but it’s over.  Hopefully that humiliating loss is a lesson for some of these kids going forward.

Not quite ready to give up on the youth just yet. 
 

but AK and Wallner are not having a good playoffs. 
 

Royce’s AB was atrocious. Somebody needed tell him you don’t have to get it all here. It’s the 1st inning. 

[VivaBomboRivera!]

They executed their plan against our pitcher; we did not execute our plan versus their pitcher.  Stick 'em tomorrow and force Game 5.

[Aerodeliria]

I'm not sure if we can bring it back to Houston, but I think Ryan will pitch very well tomorrow. We need clean plays in the field and a pinch of clutch hitting.

[wabene]

15 minutes ago, Beast said:

We have to find somebody that can get a clutch hit other than Correa.  Everybody but Correa is now somewhere in the ballpark of 2 or 3 for about 35?  You’d think you could at least luck into a few if you’re a remotely competent hitter.

The endless strikeouts in those are spots are unacceptable.

Royce Lewis may have taken the worst at bat in league history.  He swung at three straight pitches with guys on second and third that weren’t even on the same planet as the strike zone.  That was a tone setter.

You can’t have guys line Wallner and Kirilloff on the team and be taken seriously going forward.  Holy cow, those two are a couple of the worst hitters I’ve ever seen.

The pitching wasn’t great.  Not even close.  But, you can’t get anywhere with this anemic offense.  Going forward, gotta look at getting a competent hitting coach in here, rethinking this long ball strategy that clearly isn’t working, and rotate a few new guys in here.

You lose this one in reasonable fashion, fine.  But, this was an embarrassment and this team should be ashamed of itself for this performance.  What a kick to the nuts of Twins fans who have shown up for this team in droves.  They should’ve been boo’d off the field, IMO.

Not technically over….but it’s over.  Hopefully that humiliating loss is a lesson for some of these kids going forward.

Never occurred to me to boo, except when directed at the Astros. Different strokes I guess

[Rik19753]

The offense needs to turn it around very quickly. With Ryan vs Urquidy the matchup tomorrow it's likely going to be a slugfest. I don't like our current chances at all if that's the case.

Hopefully the 1st half Ryan shows up. On the bright side, Urquidy's numbers look absolutely atrocious. 6.43 K/9, 3,57 BB/9 and 1.57 HR/9 with a 5.29 ERA. Without looking it up, I think all of those numbers are on the wrong side compared to the league average. If the Twins' bats can't get going against him they have no business going anywhere in the playoffs.

[rv78]

Not sure why some of you are so disappointed. Todays game was in all reality the Twins of 2023. You should be used to it by now. 59 Strikeouts in 5 games. 16 runs total. That's normal for this team.

Looks like Gray gave Rocco a going away present he'll remember. A turd of a performance.

I wonder if Falvine is happy now that they went out and got Gallo instead of going after a guy like Abreu. (Gallo WHO? Where is Gallo and his .177 batting average?) How's that extension to Buxton working out? Oh never mind, he's a game changer just being in the dugout. This team is laughable. Mr. HomeRun (Ryan) pitches tomorrow. Houston got 4 today. I can hardly wait. 

[Hashim]

25 minutes ago, Aerodeliria said:

I'm not sure if we can bring it back to Houston, but I think Ryan will pitch very well tomorrow. We need clean plays in the field and a pinch of clutch hitting.

Don’t get your hopes up. They handled Sonny they can easily handle Ryan. Joe Ryan is a high fast ball pitcher, which Houston has no problems with. Alvarez vs Ober will be the likely result. 

[Melissa]

27 minutes ago, wabene said:

Never occurred to me to boo, except when directed at the Astros. Different strokes I guess

Same here. Cheered my heart out to the deflating end. Twins are my team, win or lose.

[Aggies7]

8 minutes ago, Hashim said:

Don’t get your hopes up. They handled Sonny they can easily handle Ryan. Joe Ryan is a high fast ball pitcher, which Houston has no problems with. Alvarez vs Ober will be the likely result. 

I posted this on another thread but I was worried about Gray coming in. He wasn’t sharp against Toronto. Yes he gave us 5 scoreless, but he had only one 1-2-3 inning. And had at least 2 baserunners in 3 of his 5 innings. Toronto just failed to take advantage and it only took Houston one inning to take full advantage of Sonny 

[CoastiePilot08]

44 minutes ago, Rik19753 said:

The offense needs to turn it around very quickly. With Ryan vs Urquidy the matchup tomorrow it's likely going to be a slugfest. I don't like our current chances at all if that's the case.

Hopefully the 1st half Ryan shows up. On the bright side, Urquidy's numbers look absolutely atrocious. 6.43 K/9, 3,57 BB/9 and 1.57 HR/9 with a 5.29 ERA. Without looking it up, I think all of those numbers are on the wrong side compared to the league average. If the Twins' bats can't get going against him they have no business going anywhere in the playoffs.

Javier had a 5+ ERA on the road this season…

[VivaBomboRivera!]

21 minutes ago, Hashim said:

Don’t get your hopes up. They handled Sonny they can easily handle Ryan. Joe Ryan is a high fast ball pitcher, which Houston has no problems with.

We gotta pen full of fresh arms if young Joe ain't quite up for the job.  Bring 'em on.

[D.C Twins]

I'm going to channel the former QB from our GB nemesis....

R-E-L-A-X 

Gray just didn't have it today.

We can absolutely get the W tomorrow and set up and EPIC Verlander vs. Lopez game 5 showdown....

That being said.... for the love of all baseball...  STOP STARTING WALLNER. How many AB does Rocco need to see to understand that he is completely overmatched at the plate?!

[CoastiePilot08]

31 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Not sure why some of you are so disappointed. Todays game was in all reality the Twins of 2023. You should be used to it by now. 59 Strikeouts in 5 games. 16 runs total. That's normal for this team.

Looks like Gray gave Rocco a going away present he'll remember. A turd of a performance.

I wonder if Falvine is happy now that they went out and got Gallo instead of going after a guy like Abreu. (Gallo WHO? Where is Gallo and his .177 batting average?) How's that extension to Buxton working out? Oh never mind, he's a game changer just being in the dugout. This team is laughable. Mr. HomeRun (Ryan) pitches tomorrow. Houston got 4 today. I can hardly wait. 

You must be a blast to be around. 
 

why do you follow the team if they make you so miserable?

THE SERIES IS NOT EVEN OVER YET 

[VivaBomboRivera!]

1 minute ago, D.C Twins said:

STOP STARTING WALLNER

Wallner was one of only four Twins batters to reach base twice today.  Let's give this a rest.

[silverslugger]

It just seems to me that the real difference here is that Houston is full of batters who have been there, done that when it comes to the playoffs and aren't trying to do too much.  That's why it was so important to win that first series and win, at least, a game here.  Experience.  Our young players look young out there. 

Also, in their big moments they have Alvarez, Altuve, and Abreu coming to the plate.  Our big moments consist of Polanco (scrappy), Lewis (inexperienced), and Kepler (nice 2nd half, but very average mlb player).

I'm not saying it's over by any means.  Anything can happen.  However, we need another Lopez-type to go with Lopez next year.  That, plus giving the batters some more seasoning, could mean we are the next Houston.

[Doctor Evil]

We live to fight another day. Go Twins!

[HokieRif]

By the comments here one would think our season ended today. 
 

it hasn’t. 
 

With the rangers set to close out tonight that should mean we are under the lights tomorrow, and we are a significantly better hitting team when the sun goes down. 
 

have some faith. 

[Hashim]

1 hour ago, VivaBomboRivera! said:

Wallner was one of only four Twins batters to reach base twice today.  Let's give this a rest.

Yeah Wallner is fine. AK needs to be benched, his defense has cost us. 

[Hashim]

30 minutes ago, HokieRif said:

By the comments here one would think our season ended today. 
 

it hasn’t. 
 

With the rangers set to close out tonight that should mean we are under the lights tomorrow, and we are a significantly better hitting team when the sun goes down. 
 

have some faith. 

What hopes do we have when Sonny couldn’t get done. I don’t expect anything from Joe Ryan.