Has Julien's Weakness Been Found?

[Cody Pirkl]

Edouard Julien got off to a scorching start to his career but has dipped a bit in August. Is his recent down performance indicative that the league may be catching up to him?

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

After being slightly below average in his first month in the Majors, Edouard Julien posted an above-average offense in May, June, and July. In August, Julien has lost a lot of power and has seen the strikeouts tick back up above 30% despite often occupying the leadoff spot. Is there any reason to be concerned, short or long-term?

Edouard Julien was a superstar in July. Slashing .369/.461/.732, he performed 122% better than the league average hitter by wRC+. Everyone hoped the Twins had a superstar hitter on their hands, but even if that was the case, that production level is impossible to maintain.

In August, Julien has dropped down to a .250/.360/.319 line. His peak of a 25% strikeout rate in July is back up around 30. It’s undoubtedly a down month, but there are still good signs.

As much as the power has disappeared in August, pitchers haven’t precisely found Julien’s weakness. August is his best month regarding walk rate, posting a 15.1% mark. Perhaps after the damage he did in July, pitchers are being much more careful when he’s at the plate, even though he’s often leading off. 

Regarding the types of pitches Julien sees, opposing pitchers essentially use the same mix, with nearly 60% fastballs followed by about 30% breaking balls and 10% offspeed. They may be pitching around him more, but it’s not like they’ve found a type of pitch to throw him that keeps him from doing damage. Still, his output when making contact hasn’t been the same.

August is Julien’s lowest month by flyball percentage, with a 12.5% mark. He’s hitting line drives at career-high levels, but the lack of balls in the air is likely why he’s only hit one homer so far. His batting average being a bit down could be bad luck, but the power likely has more to do with the lack of fly balls.

Could an injury be hampering Julien’s swing ever so slightly? He was held out briefly earlier this month with a tight hamstring, and he’s had occasions where he’s hit a ball in the infield and jogged to first. It’s fair to wonder whether something is bothering him just enough to affect his power stroke.

At any rate, Julien isn’t being attacked any differently by opposing pitchers, and he hasn’t shown any significant red flags that would indicate that some glaring weakness has been found. Perhaps he’s dealing with a nagging injury, but he’s still walking at incredible rates and spraying line drives all over the park. In what is considered a “down” month for Julien, he’s been slightly below average offensively and still gets on base at an elite rate out of the leadoff spot. If this is Edouard Julien slumping, the Twins have themselves an incredible hitter.

There should be little reason to worry about the Twins emerging leadoff hitter moving forward. He’ll likely continue to be a key cog at the top of the lineup down the stretch, and he’s already shown that he can carry an offense when things are going well. If Edouard Julien has a debilitating weakness at the plate, it doesn’t appear anyone has found it yet.

 

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[Mike Sixel]

Zero people will agree with me.... But I've thought about the team trading him. He should fetch a great pitching prospect plus..... And Lee can take over second. It would be a ridiculously risky move....... That won't happen. 

[Squirrel]

18 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Zero people will agree with me.... But I've thought about the team trading him. He should fetch a great pitching prospect plus..... And Lee can take over second. It would be a ridiculously risky move....... That won't happen. 

Yeah, I thought trading Arraez after 2019 was a good idea … and trading Miranda after his year was a good idea … it’s hard to know when it’s a good idea. We’ve seen this year what a DH only player does for the flexibility of the team and I’m not really in favor of something like that in today’s game, but I guess that depends on who the DH is

[strumdatjag]

In the off-season, a logjam at 2nd Base will become even more apparent.  Polanco, Julien, Martin, Lee ….   At least one should be traded to bolster the minor league pitching pipeline.   The Twins have an abundance of left-handed hitters.    The lefty Julien has a valuable bat (despite the recent drop in production).  He is the one I would most likely trade in the off-season.  

[DJL44]

14 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Zero people will agree with me.... But I've thought about the team trading him. He should fetch a great pitching prospect plus..... And Lee can take over second. It would be a ridiculously risky move....... That won't happen. 

I don't think it's risky at all. I think it's risky to keep him. He's stretched defensively at 2B (which is Julien's real weakness). Multiple people here don't trust that he could transition to 1B. As a DH he's pretty mediocre and the Twins aren't hurting for DH options.

Second base is not that hard to fill. They can keep Polanco and Farmer one more season (which only costs money) and transition to Lee. 

[Road trip]

30 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Zero people will agree with me.... But I've thought about the team trading him. He should fetch a great pitching prospect plus..... And Lee can take over second. It would be a ridiculously risky move....... That won't happen. 

I'd be willing to trade Julien due to his defensive limitations and our depth at 2nd (esp with the option to keep Polanco another year), but think I'd want a pitcher a little more established than a prospect (which, to me at least, means someone still in the minors).  A Hunter Brown type of young, controllable starter would intrigue me.

Regardless, I'm not terribly worried about Julien's August mini-slump.  He's still swinging at strikes and taking balls (even though he is getting the rookie treatment and umps frequently screw him).  He's had some hard hit balls go right at fielders.  So long as he is healthy, I think he will be a solid hitter.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not worried about his hitting at all....and he's more than good enough at it to be a full time DH, IMO.....but that seems like a bad plan.

I'm fascinated that so far people don't have an issue, given how this board was split on the Arraez deal......

[Brandon]

So Cody, you are telling us the pitch mix hasn't changed.  is there a pitch location map you can find and post to show how the pitches locations have changed month to month for us to compare as well.  Maybe his timing is slightly off and he needs to get that back on track.  If the pitch mix is the same, Julien will likely figure out how he is getting out and make adjustments.  If pitchers have found a way to get him out it is probably harder to make those adjustments to get back on track.  

 

[Squirrel]

12 minutes ago, strumdatjag said:

In the off-season, a logjam at 2nd Base will become even more apparent.  Polanco, Julien, Martin, Lee ….   At least one should be traded to bolster the minor league pitching pipeline.   The Twins have an abundance of left-handed hitters.    The lefty Julien has a valuable bat (despite the recent drop in production).  He is the one I would most likely trade in the off-season.  

They could decline Polanco’s option … and Martin I think will be in the OF … so I don’t see this as a logjam more than filling needs elsewhere 

[Mike Sixel]

17 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

They could decline Polanco’s option … and Martin I think will be in the OF … so I don’t see this as a logjam more than filling needs elsewhere 

Well, unless Lewis also moves to the OF, Lee will sit in AAA no matter how he plays, until there is an injury. We know that, given this year. So, I do see a logjam. I'd rather move Julien for a really good pitcher and have more good/great players in the majors, than sitting in AAA. 

[Linus]

Still agree with TK. You don’t know what you have in a hitter until they have 1000-1500 at bats. I would trade him for sure. He’s basically a DH so offensive bar to clear is pretty high. 

[tony&rodney]

It really doesn't matter who fans are willing to trade. What Twins players are appealing to another team?  Then the fun starts. Luis Arraez was a specific target of Miami's plans last winter. We received Pablo Lopez plus in return. This was a good trade for both teams.

Seattle has some exciting young arms. What would it take to acquire either Logan Gilbert or George Kirby? This will be a topic for the offseason, but these pitchers could be worth any one of the Twins hot young guys.

Julien is fighting a leg injury which is probably fairly minor. He isn't missing by much and is still making pitchers work much harder than they want to with a guy at the top of the lineup. I think he has another hot streak in him. Scherzer challenges batters right away and often finishes hitters with well located pitches. Can EJ strike early?

[chinmusic]

50 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm fascinated that so far people don't have an issue, given how this board was split on the Arraez deal.

Well, Arraez already had a significant body of work compared to Julien. That could be part of the reason.

It's because of Julien's small sample size that I'd be reluctant to deal him so early on. Seems a bit reckless to me.

Unless, of course, someone made an offer that could not be refused.

 

 

[SwainZag]

I think it's a tricky situation.   You don't often see a player as inexperienced as Julien who shows the combined eye at the plate and potential power as Julien.  

The Twins do have the luxury of having multiple young options though.   Young pitching us always intriguing, but I think I hang onto him thru the offseason and see what he can do with more ABs.

[chpettit19]

Is Julien a 130 OPS+ hitter? Is he a 134 wRC+ hitter? Those are his current numbers. If he is, trading him is incredibly risky. 134 is 26th in baseball in wRC+ for hitters with at least 200 PAs this year. If you jump the cutoff to 300 PAs he's 22nd. That's not an easily replaceable bat, even if he's a DH. I know we're all excited about Lee, but 130+ in either OPS+ or wRC+ is a high bar for him to get to and I'd question making offseason moves around assuming Lee can fill those shoes next year, or ever.

Is he more of a 115 OPS+ hitter (like a Spencer Steer type)? Then it's a different situation. I'm a "defense matters" guy, but an elite bat is far more important. There's plenty of young guys that we're excited about, and have shown promise, but I don't see a logjam. Kirilloff hasn't had a fully healthy season since before Covid. Lewis hasn't either. Will Buxton ever be Buxton again? Is Correa going to bounce back? Polanco won't be around for more than 1 more year, can he even stay healthy for that year? Can Lee hit in the majors? Those are our main IF/DH guys moving forward, right? I don't see a sure thing in any of those 6 guys. If this is the type of hitter Julien can be/is, trading him would be a massive hit for this offense. 

The next closest Twin in wRC+ who has 300 PAs this year is Max Kepler at 120 (67th in baseball). Followed by Solano at 119 (69th). Joey Gallo rounds out the Twins hitters with 300 PAs and a wRC+ over 100 with his 102 wRC+ (143rd in baseball). Solano and Gallo are gone after this year. Do we trust that this is the new Max after many of us were calling for his DFA just a couple months ago? Maybe Wallner, Lewis, and Kirilloff can stay healthy/maintain their current performances over a larger sample size. Maybe they can't. They certainly better if you're going to trade Julien.

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, SwainZag said:

I think it's a tricky situation.   You don't often see a player as inexperienced as Julien who shows the combined eye at the plate and potential power as Julien.  

The Twins do have the luxury of having multiple young options though.   Young pitching us always intriguing, but I think I hang onto him thru the offseason and see what he can do with more ABs.

Ya, I'm not convinced I'm right, nor am I convinced I'm wrong. I'd bet good money he's the starting 2B next year.

[Road trip]

55 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not worried about his hitting at all....and he's more than good enough at it to be a full time DH, IMO.....but that seems like a bad plan.

I'm fascinated that so far people don't have an issue, given how this board was split on the Arraez deal......

Can't speak for the board, but I was among those that didn't/don't like the Arraez deal.  I loved watching Arraez.  Still do.  I can't remember a Twins hitter this century who I enjoyed watching more (yep, that includes Mauer, Morneau, and all the others).  You'd have to go back to Pucket, and before that Carew.  It may be irrational, and it isn't based  entirely on numbers, but Arraez is a generational player.  A unicorn.  We won't see another Arraez in a Twins uniform for a long time, if ever.  Now Julien thus far is a good hitter.  I enjoy watching his AB's, possibly more than any other current Twin.  But he isn't Arraez.  And unlike Arraez we don't really know what we have yet in Julien... too early.

 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

Is Julien a 130 OPS+ hitter? Is he a 134 wRC+ hitter? Those are his current numbers. If he is, trading him is incredibly risky. 134 is 26th in baseball in wRC+ for hitters with at least 200 PAs this year. If you jump the cutoff to 300 PAs he's 22nd. That's not an easily replaceable bat, even if he's a DH. I know we're all excited about Lee, but 130+ in either OPS+ or wRC+ is a high bar for him to get to and I'd question making offseason moves around assuming Lee can fill those shoes next year, or ever.

Is he more of a 115 OPS+ hitter (like a Spencer Steer type)? Then it's a different situation. I'm a "defense matters" guy, but an elite bat is far more important. There's plenty of young guys that we're excited about, and have shown promise, but I don't see a logjam. Kirilloff hasn't had a fully healthy season since before Covid. Lewis hasn't either. Will Buxton ever be Buxton again? Is Correa going to bounce back? Polanco won't be around for more than 1 more year, can he even stay healthy for that year? Can Lee hit in the majors? Those are our main IF/DH guys moving forward, right? I don't see a sure thing in any of those 6 guys. If this is the type of hitter Julien can be/is, trading him would be a massive hit for this offense. 

The next closest Twin in wRC+ who has 300 PAs this year is Max Kepler at 120 (67th in baseball). Followed by Solano at 119 (69th). Joey Gallo rounds out the Twins hitters with 300 PAs and a wRC+ over 100 with his 102 wRC+ (143rd in baseball). Solano and Gallo are gone after this year. Do we trust that this is the new Max after many of us were calling for his DFA just a couple months ago? Maybe Wallner, Lewis, and Kirilloff can stay healthy/maintain their current performances over a larger sample size. Maybe they can't. They certainly better if you're going to trade Julien.

We'll never know if Lee can play until he's in the majors......It's all about Lewis' and CC's health....if they are healthy, Lee sits in ST. P as insurance.....I doubt, very much, as you point out, he will hit like Julien. Julien has been awesome.....and I believe he'll be somewhere between his peak this year and Steer.....My point is that they have depth, but not much young pitching that anyone trusts. Depth is great! But having more starters that are great is better.....

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Zero people will agree with me.... But I've thought about the team trading him. He should fetch a great pitching prospect plus..... And Lee can take over second. It would be a ridiculously risky move....... That won't happen. 

I really, really like Julien, and I don't know that I'd trade him just because, but if Buxton goes back to CF, it's going to be hard to find room for Lewis, Lee and Julien. If his value is still really high, he'd make sense to move for a high end return. More starting pitching is and will always be my vote.

[SwainZag]

22 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Ya, I'm not convinced I'm right, nor am I convinced I'm wrong. I'd bet good money he's the starting 2B next year.

I'd be willing to bet Jorge is back and starting at 2B opening day.   Just a feeling. 

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

We'll never know if Lee can play until he's in the majors......It's all about Lewis' and CC's health....if they are healthy, Lee sits in ST. P as insurance.....I doubt, very much, as you point out, he will hit like Julien. Julien has been awesome.....and I believe he'll be somewhere between his peak this year and Steer.....My point is that they have depth, but not much young pitching that anyone trusts. Depth is great! But having more starters that are great is better.....

I see their depth differently than you. Julien, Lewis, Kirilloff, Correa, Lee is a pretty nice IF/DH rotation. I'm a gigantic Polanco fan, and think he's the key to the lineup this year, but he's not here for more than next year at the most. After that where is the "depth?" Willi Castro or Nick Gordon? Martin's bad infield glove? Miranda's horrible infield glove? Yunior Severino's terrible infield glove? If Lee is one of their best 9 hitters at the start of next season I don't want him in AAA, but him starting the year there doesn't mean they have some crazy depth that can easily replace their best bat.

We've been talking about logjams and depth for years around here. Their refusal to move on from vets early this year is the first time it's ever been an actual problem. And they've been proven right with their Kepler stubbornness. Gallo is still crazy to me. The Twins have plenty of names (Schobel and Keaschall as others) that we can throw around and call depth, but if they're not actually good players, or nearly as good as the guy you're suggesting trading, it's not as simple as "more great starters are better than depth." As much as we don't like to think about it, there's a very real chance that Lee simply isn't a great, or even good, MLB hitter. We've seen what the lineup looks like when it's full the "depth," and the best rotation in baseball barely kept them at .500. "Depth" is only replaceable if you have equal parts to replace the ones you move. I don't think the Twins have equal parts to replace Julien's bat. And I don't think it's particularly close even. If you trade Julien and Lewis, Correa, or Kirilloff's health/performance problems don't remedy themselves there's no "depth" they have that's making up for it. You're looking at replacing them with similarly poor gloves and significantly worse bats than Julien. Having a bunch of names is not the same as having replaceable depth. But I get that many people don't see their depth the same way I do.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I really, really like Julien, and I don't know that I'd trade him just because, but if Buxton goes back to CF, it's going to be hard to find room for Lewis, Lee and Julien. If his value is still really high, he'd make sense to move for a high end return. More starting pitching is and will always be my vote.

If Buxton goes back to CF isn't the move to just put Julien at DH?

[Mike Sixel]

Buxton hasn't played more than a third of the games in a year almost ever.....Martin or Lewis will play more CF than Buxton next year and every year after that. If Lewis is at third, no idea where Lee is other than St. Paul. 

[Squirrel]

18 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Buxton hasn't played more than a third of the games in a year almost ever.....Martin or Lewis will play more CF than Buxton next year and every year after that. If Lewis is at third, no idea where Lee is other than St. Paul. 

Who’s at 2nd? Polanco could very well be gone after this season. Lewis or Lee could play 2nd, too. I know that you are certain that the veteran presence will win out, but if they decline Polo’s option, things just are not as log-jammed as some think. And Lee very well could start the year in AAA, but that will depend on him and how he does.

[nicksaviking]

21 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

If Buxton goes back to CF isn't the move to just put Julien at DH?

If it was me, and it isn't, I like the DH spot to be flexible. Or it could be your spot to find that year's Nelson Cruz or JD Martinez; the huge veteran bat which is clearly an upgrade to the more recent wave veteran bats this team likes to stick into valuable spots in the field. I'd think if you could get high end pitching for Julien (or for Julien +), it would be more valuable than just plugging him in at DH.

But again, I really like Julien, so I wouldn't trade him just to trade him. Only if there's another stalwart starter to be had.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Squirrel said:

Who’s at 2nd? Polanco could very well be gone after this season. Lewis or Lee could play 2nd, too. I know that you are certain that the veteran presence will win out, but if they decline Polo’s option, things just are not as log-jammed as some think. And Lee very well could start the year in AAA, but that will depend on him and how he does.

Julien is at 2nd if they don't trade him. 100% of the time. Where would they play Lee if Lewis is at third and Julien at 2nd? AAA. 

[nicksaviking]

3 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Who’s at 2nd? Polanco could very well be gone after this season. Lewis or Lee could play 2nd, too. I know that you are certain that the veteran presence will win out, but if they decline Polo’s option, things just are not as log-jammed as some think. And Lee very well could start the year in AAA, but that will depend on him and how he does.

I can't speak for Mike, but I assume the thought is that Correa will stick at SS, Buxton or Martin will be in CF and Lewis and Lee will be 2B/3B.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

If it was me, and it isn't, I like the DH spot to be flexible. Or it could be your spot to find that year's Nelson Cruz or JD Martinez; the huge veteran bat which is clearly an upgrade to the more recent wave veteran bats this team likes to stick into valuable spots in the field. I'd think if you could get high end pitching for Julien (or for Julien +), it would be more valuable than just plugging him in at DH.

But again, I really like Julien, so I wouldn't trade him just to trade him. Only if there's another stalwart starter to be had.

Well it doesn't just have to be Julien. The real point is that with Buxton back in CF there aren't too many guys for not enough spots. You can rotate Julien, Lewis, Lee, Correa, and Kirilloff all through the DH and IF spots. 

I certainly understand the desire for another pitcher, but I don't think this offense is good, or deep, enough for me to think trading possibly their best bat is a move that upgrades the team overall. We've seen what a bunch of "eh" hitters gets this team even when they have an elite rotation. Gets them to barely .500. I'm sure others see the offense differently, though.

[Squirrel]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Julien is at 2nd if they don't trade him. 100% of the time. Where would they play Lee if Lewis is at third and Julien at 2nd? AAA. 

100%? Yeah, I don’t believe that, at all. But if he is then Lee is at 3rd and Lewis in the outfield.

[Squirrel]

4 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I can't speak for Mike, but I assume the thought is that Correa will stick at SS, Buxton or Martin will be in CF and Lewis and Lee will be 2B/3B.

That was what I said