Has Julien's Weakness Been Found?

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

100%? Yeah, I don’t believe that, at all. But if he is then Lee is at 3rd and Lewis in the outfield.

I'd love for Lewis to be the starting CF (or Martin)......and for Lee to be at third. But I don't believe Lewis will be there for a second. We'll know in March/April....

[DJL44]

48 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Is Julien a 130 OPS+ hitter? Is he a 134 wRC+ hitter? Those are his current numbers. If he is, trading him is incredibly risky.

I'd say it's hard to get fair value. There aren't many Arraez for Lopez deals out there. Would Seattle deal one of their young starters? Would the White Sox deal Cease to a division rival? Could they get Misiorowski from the Brewers?

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I'd say it's hard to get fair value. There aren't many Arraez for Lopez deals out there. Would Seattle deal one of their young starters? Would the White Sox deal Cease to a division rival? Could they get Misiorowski from the Brewers?

This is a fair point!

[nicksaviking]

34 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Well it doesn't just have to be Julien. The real point is that with Buxton back in CF there aren't too many guys for not enough spots. You can rotate Julien, Lewis, Lee, Correa, and Kirilloff all through the DH and IF spots. 

I certainly understand the desire for another pitcher, but I don't think this offense is good, or deep, enough for me to think trading possibly their best bat is a move that upgrades the team overall. We've seen what a bunch of "eh" hitters gets this team even when they have an elite rotation. Gets them to barely .500. I'm sure others see the offense differently, though.

The problem is that the 'eh' hitters have been the low end vets. I want to see the young bats, like ALL the young bats get a shot. But there won't be room, so if they can do another Arraez/Lopez deal, but with Julien, or one of the other young hitters, I'm all for it. Which ever player they pick, should have more value than Arraez did, so that should be an excellent return.

And while I like the defensive flexibility, I don't want them to rotate Lewis/Lee/Julien. If they're all on the team, I want them in the lineup every day. 

2023 starting lineup for me:

C: Jeffers, 1B Kirilloff, 2B Lee, SS Correa, 3B Lewis, CF Buxton, RF/LF/DH, Wallner, Martin, Larnach, Julien, Prato, Williams, Severino, Big Budget Free Agent. 

I get that some of those are unproven, but there's a ton to audition and the team can afford to have one spot in the lineup open for auditions. There's also just more guys than there are spots. Level up with your best trade chips to improve the pitching staff.

I wouldn't single out Julien, he's one of my favorite players, but if he's the best chip, I'm very open to it.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

The problem is that the 'eh' hitters have been the low end vets. I want to see the young bats, like ALL the young bats get a shot. But there won't be room, so if they can do another Arraez/Lopez deal, but with Julien, or one of the other young hitters, I'm all for it. Which ever player they pick, should have more value than Arraez did, so that should be an excellent return.

And while I like the defensive flexibility, I don't want them to rotate Lewis/Lee/Julien. If they're all on the team, I want them in the lineup every day. 

2023 starting lineup for me:

C: Jeffers, 1B Kirilloff, 2B Lee, SS Correa, 3B Lewis, LF, CF Buxton, RF/LF/DH, Martin, Larnach, Julien, Prato, Williams, Severino, Big Budget Free Agent. 

I get that some of those are unproven, but there's a ton to audition and the team can afford to have one spot in the lineup open for auditions. There's also just more guys than there are spots. Level up with your best trade chips to improve the pitching staff.

I wouldn't single out Julien, he's one of my favorite players, but if he's the best chip, I'm very open to it.

Sure....if they can deal Lee for a legit SP, I'd consider that too. Probably not Lewis, though his injury history makes me nervous....I see him, if healthy, as a STAR. 

[nicksaviking]

11 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Sure....if they can deal Lee for a legit SP, I'd consider that too. Probably not Lewis, though his injury history makes me nervous....I see him, if healthy, as a STAR. 

Agree. 

[chpettit19]

49 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

The problem is that the 'eh' hitters have been the low end vets. I want to see the young bats, like ALL the young bats get a shot. But there won't be room, so if they can do another Arraez/Lopez deal, but with Julien, or one of the other young hitters, I'm all for it. Which ever player they pick, should have more value than Arraez did, so that should be an excellent return.

And while I like the defensive flexibility, I don't want them to rotate Lewis/Lee/Julien. If they're all on the team, I want them in the lineup every day. 

2023 starting lineup for me:

C: Jeffers, 1B Kirilloff, 2B Lee, SS Correa, 3B Lewis, CF Buxton, RF/LF/DH, Wallner, Martin, Larnach, Julien, Prato, Williams, Severino, Big Budget Free Agent. 

I get that some of those are unproven, but there's a ton to audition and the team can afford to have one spot in the lineup open for auditions. There's also just more guys than there are spots. Level up with your best trade chips to improve the pitching staff.

I wouldn't single out Julien, he's one of my favorite players, but if he's the best chip, I'm very open to it.

I want to see the young kids audition, too. I don't want to go into a season built on them, though. Cuz chances are Martin, Prato, Williams, and Severino aren't more than "eh" hitters just like the vets. So you've then traded away your best bat because you didn't want a most-of-the-time DH. I don't think the idea of trading Julien is crazy, and understand the desire for a big time young arm. I don't see the depth that some of you claim there is. Going into 2024 with that roster sounds like an absolute disaster to me.

Do you honestly believe that lineup is likely to produce more than the ones they had with Solano, Farmer, and Castro a bunch of this year? And if it doesn't where's your depth? 30 year old Stevenson? Noah Miller? 2nd year Keaschell? To me that plan is a drastic over adjustment to our Gallo and Julien frustrations this year. The truth about those prospects is that you're not likely finding more than 2 of them (likely Martin and Lee) who are even as good as Farmer or Solano.  And if/when they fail you're down to even lesser prospects trying to fill in.

The Twins are too slow to move on from vets, and completely botched their chances to test young players the last 2 years. But I don't think overcompensating by going almost completely young, unproven, and untested is the answer unless you're not really trying to compete in 2024 and are just testing guys out for 2025 and beyond. There's a middle ground and that's what I'm trying to advocate for.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I want to see the young kids audition, too. I don't want to go into a season built on them, though. Cuz chances are Martin, Prato, Williams, and Severino aren't more than "eh" hitters just like the vets. So you've then traded away you best bat because you didn't want most-of-the-time DH. I don't think the idea of trading Julien is crazy, and understand the desire for a big time young arm. I don't see the depth that some of you claim there is. Going into 2024 with that roster sounds like an absolute disaster to me.

Do you honestly believe that lineup is likely to produce more than the ones they had with Solano, Farmer, and Castro a bunch of this year? And if it doesn't where's your depth? 30 year old Stevenson? Noah Miller? 2nd year Keaschell? To me that plan is a drastic over adjustment to our Gallo and Julien frustrations this year. The truth about those prospects is that you're not likely finding more than 2 of them (likely Martin and Lee) who are even as good as Farmer or Solano.  And if/when they fail you're down to even lesser prospects trying to fill in.

The Twins are too slow to move on from vets, and completely botched their chances to test young players the last 2 years. But I don't think overcompensating by going almost completely young, unproven, and untested is the answer unless you're not really trying to compete in 2024 and are just testing guys out foe 2025 and beyond. There's a middle ground and that's what I'm trying to advocate for.

My concern is that Martin and Lee will just sit in AAA, providing no value. As this FO and manager defer to veterans. Just like Wallner and Julien until injuries forced their hand.

[nicksaviking]

8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

 

Do you honestly believe that lineup is likely to produce more than the ones they had with Solano, Farmer, and Castro a bunch of this year?

To this part? Unequivocally yes. The odds are that they can make up a better offense based on trial and error with the guys already in the system than they can with these types of hitters.

And the offense's biggest problem this year was that they prioritized 'depth' at the expense of higher ceiling hitters. And I get it, last year they got crushed by injuries and wanted to play it safe. But it was an over correct. The young guys have proven time and time again that they would have been the better option all along. Roster for the ceiling, not the floor. You can always option a Julian or Martin or Lee or Williams or Prato. If by chance none of them work out, you can get a Solano, Farmer or Castro mid season for peanuts.

All of this isn't to say I wouldn't be open to top end free agent or trade pieces, but these end of the roster players don't need to be guaranteed roster spots in April.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

My concern is that Martin and Lee will just sit in AAA, providing no value. As this FO and manager defer to veterans. Just like Wallner and Julien until injuries forced their hand.

I understand that, and very much have the same concern. I don't think the solution to that problem is trading your best hitter, though. They cleared a spot for Miranda this year so it's not like they never play young guys. Had spots ready and waiting for Kirilloff and Lewis the second they were ready. Gallo and Julien were/are poorly handled situations. But there are other young guys who've they've handed the reigns to. Duran was on the opening day roster last year. I just see some of these ideas as overcompensating. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I understand that, and very much have the same concern. I don't think the solution to that problem is trading your best hitter, though. They cleared a spot for Miranda this year so it's not like they never play young guys. Had spots ready and waiting for Kirilloff and Lewis the second they were ready. Gallo and Julien were/are poorly handled situations. But there are other young guys who've they've handed the reigns to. Duran was on the opening day roster last year. I just see some of these ideas as overcompensating. 

I'm only trading him for a guy I think is a legit, young, starting pitcher, not just to clear space. They need pitching next year and the years after....

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

To this part? Unequivocally yes. The odds are that they can make up a better offense based on trial and error with the guys already in the system than they can with these types of hitters.

And the offense's biggest problem this year was that they prioritized 'depth' at the expense of higher ceiling hitters. And I get it, last year they got crushed by injuries and wanted to play it safe. But it was an over correct. The young guys have proven time and time again that they would have been the better option all along. Roster for the ceiling, not the floor. You can always option a Julian or Martin or Lee or Williams or Prato. If by chance none of them work out, you can get a Solano, Farmer or Castro mid season for peanuts.

All of this isn't to say I wouldn't be open to top end free agent or trade pieces, but these end of the roster players don't need to be guaranteed roster spots in April.

Yeah, we just don't see the prospects the same way. Nothing wrong with that, we just won't agree. I don't see their realistic ceilings anywhere near where you appear to. These are not top 100 type prospects we're talking about outside of Lee, and maybe Martin. It's just the nature of prospects. Most of them fail. Especially the average ones.

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm only trading him for a guy I think is a legit, young, starting pitcher, not just to clear space. They need pitching next year and the years after....

They also need offense next year and the years after. They need more talent overall, not to move the talent from one spot to another. It's totally fine if you see a good offense without Julien. I don't. And we already know good pitching without the offense to back it doesn't work. I don't see a team that needs to move talent around, I see a team that needs to add talent. They can't keep trading offense for pitching. They don't have enough offense for that.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

They also need offense next year and the years after. They need more talent overall, not to move the talent from one spot to another. It's totally fine if you see a good offense without Julien. I don't. And we already know good pitching without the offense to back it doesn't work. I don't see a team that needs to move talent around, I see a team that needs to add talent. They can't keep trading offense for pitching. They don't have enough offense for that.

Fair. 

[USAFChief]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

My concern is that Martin and Lee will just sit in AAA, providing no value. As this FO and manager defer to veterans. Just like Wallner and Julien until injuries forced their hand.

I hope against hope the 2024 Twins are good enough to leave both Martin and Lee in AAA.

In the case of Martin, pump the breaks a bit. 

And in the case of Lee, there has never in the history of baseball been a team hurt by having too many good players.

I hope he wins a AAA MVP and there's no room for him. But the reality is, if he's good, he'll get an opportunity. 

 

[Jocko87]

11 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Zero people will agree with me.... But I've thought about the team trading him. He should fetch a great pitching prospect plus..... And Lee can take over second. It would be a ridiculously risky move....... That won't happen. 

 

8 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Sure....if they can deal Lee for a legit SP, I'd consider that too. Probably not Lewis, though his injury history makes me nervous....I see him, if healthy, as a STAR. 

The pattern is that shaky gloves move.  Sticks with functional gloves are not being moved by this FO.  Sticks with excellent gloves aren't going anywhere.  That means Julien is long gone before Lee or Lewis are even thought about.  They simply have to put their money on two way players to stick.  Its the slightly higher class small market move.

I would be listening to all offers on Julien, quietly.  The bat is still looking very good but the weaknesses are not fully exposed.  The glove is actually improving and the Twins can play that up.  He might be an elite bat so my asking price is very high but I move guys that hurt on defense. 

I'm also not convinced they will do it this year or next.  Lee and Martin are not contributors early next year considering the pattern with vets.  We should probably start accepting that Kepler and Polo will be with us to start next year.  In this scenario, Polo as a fill in all around the infield including short is not the worst thing.  If his legs are good, he will be back to start next year.  Playing 4-5 days a week will probably be good for him.

[Karbo]

17 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Is Julien a 130 OPS+ hitter? Is he a 134 wRC+ hitter? Those are his current numbers. If he is, trading him is incredibly risky. 134 is 26th in baseball in wRC+ for hitters with at least 200 PAs this year. If you jump the cutoff to 300 PAs he's 22nd. That's not an easily replaceable bat, even if he's a DH. I know we're all excited about Lee, but 130+ in either OPS+ or wRC+ is a high bar for him to get to and I'd question making offseason moves around assuming Lee can fill those shoes next year, or ever.

Is he more of a 115 OPS+ hitter (like a Spencer Steer type)? Then it's a different situation. I'm a "defense matters" guy, but an elite bat is far more important. There's plenty of young guys that we're excited about, and have shown promise, but I don't see a logjam. Kirilloff hasn't had a fully healthy season since before Covid. Lewis hasn't either. Will Buxton ever be Buxton again? Is Correa going to bounce back? Polanco won't be around for more than 1 more year, can he even stay healthy for that year? Can Lee hit in the majors? Those are our main IF/DH guys moving forward, right? I don't see a sure thing in any of those 6 guys. If this is the type of hitter Julien can be/is, trading him would be a massive hit for this offense. 

The next closest Twin in wRC+ who has 300 PAs this year is Max Kepler at 120 (67th in baseball). Followed by Solano at 119 (69th). Joey Gallo rounds out the Twins hitters with 300 PAs and a wRC+ over 100 with his 102 wRC+ (143rd in baseball). Solano and Gallo are gone after this year. Do we trust that this is the new Max after many of us were calling for his DFA just a couple months ago? Maybe Wallner, Lewis, and Kirilloff can stay healthy/maintain their current performances over a larger sample size. Maybe they can't. They certainly better if you're going to trade Julien.

I'm not so sure Solano will be gone. His hitting and versatility could keep him here.

[Karbo]

Martin and Lee haven't shown they can hit at this level yet. Julian has. The kid is working on his defense at 2nd and the eye test tells me there has been improvement. IMO it would take a pretty good pitcher or 2 for a trade. I think a lot depends on who the Twins bring back in the rotation. This FO doesn't like to risk much for RP's, so and that to me is the biggest need at this point going into the off season.

[terrydactyls]

17 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm only trading him for a guy I think is a legit, young, starting pitcher, not just to clear space. They need pitching next year and the years after....

It appears that many responders forgot your basic premise of getting a legitimate ML (or ML adjacent) pitcher as the return for Julien.

[Major League Ready]

18 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm only trading him for a guy I think is a legit, young, starting pitcher, not just to clear space. They need pitching next year and the years after....

The odds are that a team trading for Julien is a contender filling a hole and probably one that thinks they have a reasonably long window.  Those teams generally don't trade away established pitchers.  The deal for Lopez is just not common because rarely do teams have excess pitching like Miami did in this case.   Sure, it's possible but improbable.  It would also be a trade 6 years of control for no more than 2 and that's not a good formula.

They will have payroll space for a good free agent SP.  I think that's the preferred way to add pitching next year and you know I am quite aware of how often free agent SPs fail.   They need to choose wisely!

[terrydactyls]

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

Martin and Lee haven't shown they can hit at this level yet. Julian has. The kid is working on his defense at 2nd and the eye test tells me there has been improvement. IMO it would take a pretty good pitcher or 2 for a trade. I think a lot depends on who the Twins bring back in the rotation. This FO doesn't like to risk much for RP's, so and that to me is the biggest need at this point going into the off season.

Maybe Martin and Lee haven't shown they can hit at the ML level.  But could that be because they haven't been given the chance to show it?  Last fall, as the Twins were plummeting in the standings, the FO office kept putting a Keystone Cops lineup on the field when they could have given opportunities to minor league guys to show what they have.  This year, it's keeping with Gallo instead of giving anyone an audition.  You can't show your abilities untill you are given a chance.

[jorgenswest]

Julien had BABIPs of .471 and .450 in June and July. Maybe it gave some the illusion that the Twins could afford to trade Polanco and possibly anoint Julien rookie of the year. In season slash stats vary so much by the small sample it is really hard to draw any conclusions looking at a change from one small sample to another small sample. Julien has a good bat and possibly good enough to DH long term or make up for deficits at 2B. He has work to do also. He needs to cut down on his strike outs and he needs to have better at bats against left handed pitching. 

[Major League Ready]

Lee has a wRC+ of 63 at AAA so he is not going to start the season at the ML level.  Martin has had one hot month.  He is earning a shot but he needs to show some consistency.   Martin might end up playing more OF than IF.  Julien can co-exist with the all of these players.  We can trade him if we are so fortunate as to have multiple guys work out and we don't have enough playing time for guys that are legit starting caliber players.

[Brandon]

What’s not talked about here is the return of Miranda.  I think if his shoulder heals the he could be a good hitter too.  He could be a DH or 1B. 
 

I think they will keep Polanco next season.  He won’t cost too much and neither will Kepler.  I can see Lee starting in AAA and several players moving at throughout the year.  Lewis at 3B (120 games and SS (15 games) and DH (10-15 games). For example.  Solano could be back.  I’m sure he likes it here with all the playing time he received.  He already has career high in hits, runs and doubles in a season.  I wonder if one of the IF will be a super sub and get some time in the OF as well as all around the IF.  
 

Farmer has hit at the same level as last year.  I wonder if he will be back.  He definitely is worthy but is he priced out for a backup player.  
 

so we have Killeroff, Solano, Julien, Polanco, Correa, Lewis, and Farmer. With Lee and Miranda on the periphery.  It will be fun watching this play out.

for a trade idea we could send one of our IF to Miami for Max Meyer and a reliever.